Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what estimate he has made of the change in tax revenues originating from aviation and aerospace-related activities in (a) 2020-21 and (b) the next three financial years.

Forecasts of future receipts are produced by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) on a regular basis as part of their Economic and Fiscal Outlook series. The Chancellor of the Exchequer has asked the OBR to prepare an economic and fiscal forecast to be published in November.

Air Passenger Duty (APD) is the UK’s principal tax on the aviation sector. The OBR’s Fiscal Sustainability Report, published in July, has estimated APD receipts over the next five financial years under various scenarios. Under the central scenario, the OBR estimated that APD would raise: £1.3bn in 2020-21; £3.7bn in 2021-22; £3.8bn in 2022-23; £3.9bn in 2023-24 and; £4.1bn on 2024-25. The report acknowledges that these figures are “hugely uncertain”.