Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask Her Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the worst case scenario for flu deaths ahead of the 2021–22 winter flu season.

Public Health England has not made such an assessment. The number of cases and deaths due to influenza-related complications varies each season. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the low levels of flu virus circulation globally in 2020 and 2021, predictions for the 2021/22 influenza season are particularly uncertain. The average number of estimated deaths in England for the last five seasons was over 11,000 deaths annually. This ranged from almost 4,000 deaths in 2018/19 to over 22,000 deaths in 2017/18. Of these deaths, many were in people with underlying conditions.