Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask Her Majesty's Government, further to the report HMRC responses to inaccurate claims, published on 12 January, what is the methodology for estimating the amount lost to fraud and error; what is the value of these claims; and what is the forecasted expenditure for such claims, for (1) the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (2) the Self-Employment Income Support Scheme phases 1 to 3, and (3) the Eat Out to Help Out scheme.

The Government introduced unprecedented COVID support, helping millions of people across the UK. The schemes were designed to protect against Error and Fraud (E&F) by only making grants to individuals and businesses matched to information already on HMRC systems wherever possible, preventing ineligible claims, blocking suspicious claims up front, and investing in post-scheme compliance.

The latest E&F estimates and expenditure across the COVID-19 support schemes are included in HMRC’s 2021 Annual Report and Accounts, released on 4 November 2021, which can be found on the gov.uk website.

HMRC has published a technical document alongside the Annual Report and Accounts 2020 to 2021 detailing the methodology for measuring E&F in the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS), the Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS) phases 1 to 3, and the Eat Out to Help Out scheme (EOHO). This can be found on the gov.uk website.

HMRC aim to produce updated E&F estimates for CJRS and SEISS by Summer 2022.

HMRC are taking tough action to tackle fraudulent behaviour. Anyone who keeps money despite knowing they were not entitled to it, faces repaying up to double the amount, plus interest, and potentially criminal prosecution in serious cases.

HMRC established the Taxpayer Protection Taskforce and is estimated to recover approximately £800 million to £1 billion in the two years to 2022-23, on top of around £500 million recovered in the year 2020-21. HMRC will continue to address fraud and error in the schemes beyond the duration of the taskforce.