Finance (No. 3) Bill
Lord Desai Excerpts(14 years, 7 months ago)
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Lord Desai
My Lords, I welcome the debate. I have nothing particular to add to what other noble Lords have said about the interesting report of the noble Lord, Lord MacGregor, which I welcome. I especially welcome the transparency and the consultation that the Government have introduced in deciding their tax legislation.
I want to concentrate on why the recovery is so slow and faltering. That is an important question that we all ought to take up. The general proposition in many quarters is that somehow the Government have gone wrong and they need a plan B—or C or D, I do not know. I think that we face a very different kind of crisis from those we are normally used to. Recessions normally happen because of a lack of effective demand, and we know the standard games and policies that we have to follow. We got into this crisis not because of a lack of effective demand but because of overspending and overborrowing. When you have to carry an economy through a crisis in which the major consideration is deleveraging by both households and Governments, you need a very different kind of strategy from the one you normally encounter in a standard recession.
That said, we do not have a road map for such crises. Normally all economic theory is about the other kind of crisis. There is a paradoxical conclusion that we might follow. If the task is to deleverage, we ought to hurry that up. That leads to the idea that we should not have low interest rates at all; we should have proper high interest rates so that households that falsely think they can afford their mortgages should be told that they have negative equity and cannot afford them. That is a cruel thing to say, but right now we are postponing deleveraging rather than assisting it. That is a choice that the Government can make.
We have, of course, decided to deleverage public debt at a rate that is now known, and the task of eliminating the deficit within five years has been adopted. The problem of deleveraging is not just a problem of the recession. We are observing from the crises of both pensions and elderly care that we, not just in the UK but in western economies, are suffering from a serious undersaving problem. We have been undersaving for far too long and we will completely have to change our habits of thinking, living, taxes, and so on. The task of the tax system should be as far as possible to tax consumption and not income, to tax pollution but not work. I do not know at what stage we will get into those kinds of discussion. I welcome the proposal to merge income tax and national insurance contributions. I have never understood national insurance contributions because they are a tax on earned income, while unearned income gets taxed less, which is a very peculiar thing that successive Governments have tolerated.
If we are to face up to the challenge of saving seriously, we will have to adopt something like what Lord Kaldor talked about in his expenditure tax proposal. We may have to move to an expenditure tax proposal as that would reward savings much more than we have done so far. We have been led to think that expenditure leads to income. I am sorry that the noble Lord, Lord Skidelsky, is not in his place as we have had long arguments about this. If you think that expenditure leads to income and income then leads to output that leads to inward gain, we have a certain trajectory. Our problem is that we cannot go through the politics of income growth if there is consumption expenditure.
The gap is in investment. The Government face the challenge that despite the quantitative easing that they have been practising for a couple of years, the money is there but no one is investing. That is very much the reason why the money supply is not expanding, as the noble Lord, Lord Higgins, said. People are not borrowing the money that is available. Therefore, there is a lack of investment by the private sector despite the fact that interest rates are low and people should be encouraged to invest. This is a difficult thing to do. I do not believe that it is necessarily within the Government’s control to encourage investment if they can no longer pick winners or horses that will start a race. However, the Government ought to concentrate on how they can give a certain boost to new investment proposals, perhaps in green technology. Unless they get an investment programme going, they will find that even if people decide to save they will be frustrated.
Whichever way the Government go—I welcome some of the taxation proposals—they should be aware that in the short term and in the long run the crisis arises from undersaving. We have to try to correct our overborrowing and then provide for a proper level of saving to finance the problems created by longer life expectancy and people needing elderly care. If these two challenges are properly thought through and met, we may yet have a prosperous future.
Monetary Policy Committee
Lord Desai Excerpts(14 years, 7 months ago)
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Lord Sassoon
My Lords, I can confirm the first part of what the noble Lord, Lord Stern, says. What the Government will do is to stick to a very firm, clear deficit reduction plan as the background against which the Monetary Policy Committee can make its decisions with confidence.
Lord Maples
My Lords, consumer price inflation is only one measure of inflation. May I suggest that if in the run-up to the crash the Monetary Policy Committee had been looking at asset price inflation—
Budget Responsibility and National Audit Bill [HL]
Lord Desai Excerpts(15 years, 2 months ago)
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Lord Peston
Perhaps I may indicate one thought that has occurred to me, which the Minister might like to reflect on. It follows on from what my noble friend Lord Eatwell said: namely, that there is an enormous benefit to be gained if these people have been scrutinised. I do not believe that in practice it would occur very often, if at all, that the names brought forward were rejected, but a committee—which, one hopes, did not operate politically, such as the Treasury Select Committee; certainly the Economic Affairs of your Lordships’ House has never done so—might say, “We approve of these people; they’re just the people we need to help safeguard the independence”, which my noble friend Lord Eatwell has emphasised in this context and before. It is worth reflecting on whether that would be helpful in a body that is very different from any body that I can think of that has been set up in my time to consider economic policy-making.
There is an old adage, “Never do anything for the first time”, but that is what this body is doing, whether we think that that is good or bad. I would have thought that the Minister might like to reflect at least a little on the point that there would be positive benefits from going down the path that my noble friend suggests.
Lord Desai
I am sorry, my Lords, I did not speak in the Second Reading debate or on Monday. The point here is about trust. The Government have set up an institution that in its early days suffered from a bit of a problem of trust. I think that that was an accident, not the fault of the OBR itself. Whatever the Government can do to establish trust in the body would help them enormously. As my noble friend Lord Peston said, this is an innovation, a very good one, and perhaps it would strengthen it to do something, as my noble friend Lord Eatwell has suggested, to say that this is not like any other public sector body but is vital to the conduct of economic policy by the Government and to the perception of that policy. If the Minister can do something to assuage the trust deficit that we have here, it would be helpful.
Lord Higgins
My Lords, I agree with the point that has just been made. It is true, as the Minister has said, that we are breaking new ground here, but the other bodies to which he referred are very different from this one, which is unique. I would have thought that the case for having the whole board approved by the Treasury Select Committee gave greater weight to the committee’s authority and would certainly make the committee, which is going to be dealing with this whole issue a great deal, more acceptable to it in future proceedings. I am not clear why the Minister objects to adding this.
Lord Sassoon
It is clearly up to Robert Chote how he deploys his staff and what they do. Noble Lords obviously have not quite grasped what is meant by the independence of the OBR. It means that it is for the office to organise its life. I have not the faintest idea how it will do it, but I am sure that it will do it professionally and appropriately and that it will devote the necessary resources.
In answer to another question, I was going to quote from page 3 of the OBR report to summarise the contacts that it has had in the build-up to producing its 150 pages, but the noble Lord, Lord Turnbull, has already pointed to the key paragraph. The OBR made it clear that it would publish the list of contacts, which, as it promised, is coming out this week, shortly after the publication of the report.
Nothing in the Bill stops the OBR publishing any minutes, reports or documents of any kind that it wants to. As well as focusing on the critical point that we should not require it to produce minutes for the sake of minutes when the output is forecasts rather than policy-making discussions, it is also important that we should recognise that if it wants to disclose anything about the way in which it goes about its business, it is entirely free to do so. It can draw on external expertise. It might have committees with external experts. There is nothing to preclude that. The core executive functions cannot be delegated, though, and the minimum output will be the two formal reports per year. However, it is already also producing a considerable amount of other information, and it will do so in future. It is for the office to be as transparent as it thinks is appropriate, consistent with its mandate.
I do not for one minute take this to be a trivial point. I made the comparison with the MPC because it is critical. However, the amendments would require the OBR and the BRC to do a number of things that on the one hand are not required—consistent with the principles of accountability, transparency and independence—and, on the other, would put minor straitjackets on it that are not necessary because it should be free to publish whatever it sees fit to publish.
This has been an interesting discussion. I am sympathetic to some of the objectives that are desired, but I am afraid that the amendments in this group do not add anything to the underlying purposes, which I understand are well intentioned. I ask noble Lords not to press their amendments.
Lord Desai
Perhaps I might try once more. There was a birth trauma when the OBR was established, and its independence was undermined by what happened. Sir Alan Budd has publicly said that he suffered as a result. We are trying to help the Government to re-establish trust in this body. They have taken the view that they have done enough—but that is what they said last time. It is fine for them not to accept the amendments, but they will harm the reputation of the OBR.
Finance (No. 2) Bill
Lord Desai Excerpts(15 years, 2 months ago)
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Lord Desai
My Lords, the Minister has done very well in presenting to us what is a non-controversial Bill. My remarks will be about not the technical aspects of the Bill as such but about the slightly broader context.
I recall that when I first came to your Lordships’ House and the Conservative Party was in power, I managed to wangle a day of general debate on the Budget as soon as it was presented in the House of Commons. Since we cannot amend the Budget anyway, we just discussed the Budget while it was still fresh and in the newspapers. I urge the coalition Government to follow that good practice by ensuring that, when the Budget is presented in March next year, we can perhaps have a day of general discussion on it.
Although I welcome the provisions on zero-carbon emissions vehicles and some of the Bill’s other provisions, I want to make two general comments on other measures that, while not strictly related to the Budget, are part of government policy. First, the well publicised proposal to withdraw child benefits from households that pay the higher rate of income tax is, I think, a bad move. Child benefit is currently paid to the mother rather than the income earner, and neither the mother’s income nor her partner’s income has ever been relevant to the mother’s entitlement to child benefit. I think that the Government’s proposal is a bad move, but if the Government are bent on taxing child benefit, they would be much better to include the benefit in the general income tax category so that everyone, whether they pay tax at the 20 per cent rate or at the 40 per cent rate, was taxed on child benefit. If the Government made it clear that the child benefit goes not to the mother but to the household—although that might require primary legislation—and if they were to tax child benefit across the board, people who do not pay income tax would still get the full child benefit and taxpayers would have either 20 per cent or 40 per cent of the benefit taken off them. That is the first thing that I wanted to say.
Secondly, I want to ask the Minister, in light of what has happened since the Budget and since the comprehensive spending review, what his estimates are for the growth prospects of the British economy. For the third quarter, the provisional growth rate figure of 0.8 per cent was better than expected, but it was lower than the growth rate in the second quarter. However, the figure for the second quarter has been revised downwards, to 1 per cent rather than 1.2 per cent. Does the Minister think that those successive three quarters of positive output growth give any assurance that growth will continue and, if so, at what rate? What does the Office for Budget Responsibility advise in that respect? Furthermore, in light of what has happened over the past three to four months, what does the government borrowing requirement look like? Are the Government’s borrowing predictions on track, or will borrowing be better or worse? I would be grateful if the Minister could advise us on that.
Comprehensive Spending Review
Lord Desai Excerpts(15 years, 4 months ago)
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Lord Sassoon
My Lords, I could sit here for a long time, get out my calculator and work these things out. All the numbers are set out in the book; there still seemed to be copies in the Printed Paper Office when I came into the Chamber. There are probably more important things to be talking about now.
Lord Kilclooney
My Lords, it is only right to say thank you. Northern Ireland, historically and geographically, has been very closely associated with Scotland. As a result, the Presbyterian Church in Northern Ireland is the largest Protestant communion in that province. The problems of the Presbyterian Mutual Society have been a running sore for several years. Will the Minister take note that there will be widespread appreciation across Northern Ireland that this problem has finally been addressed in the Statement?
Lord Sassoon
I am very grateful to the noble Lord for drawing attention to the fact that the Presbyterian Mutual Society has been a long-running issue which was not gripped by the previous Government. Whether it is that or properly compensating the policyholders of Equitable Life, we have got on and made what we believe to be fair decisions which were dodged by the previous Government.
Lord Winston
My Lords, would the Minister be kind enough to answer my noble friend Lord Eatwell’s question about universities? Does he agree that the Browne review can in no way cover the costs of teaching, which we need, in the universities which contribute so much to our economy beyond the STEM subjects and so much to our civilised society?