Brexit: Economic Analysis of Various Scenarios

Debate between Lord Bates and Baroness Quin

Wednesday 28th November 2018 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bates]

The analysis shows a range of possible outcomes because we do not know, at this stage, what the outcome will be of the negotiations. We have set out a proposal in the White Paper that is backed up by the political declaration, and we want to see that achieved. To help the House and indeed others to prepare for that, we have provided for a whole range of scenarios. That includes sensitivity analysis, which would allow for just the point the noble Baroness has highlighted—about different types of trade outcomes—to be factored in before people come to a conclusion.

[Baroness Quin (Lab)]

My Lords, is it not clear from what the Minister has said that what is in front of us is not delivering exactly the same benefits, which is what we were promised by the former Brexit Secretary in the other place? What discussions have the Government had with the City of London about the exclusion of services? The figures seem to show that the economy of London—which, it was previously thought, would do rather well out of this situation—is being quite badly affected because of the exclusion of the service sector which is so important to our economy.

[Lord Bates]

I can confirm that the economic analysis being undertaken is for the economy as a whole—goods and services—and that is reflected in the regional pages. Further analysis by the Bank of England, which we believe will be released in about 40 minutes’ time, will give another view that will be helpful to Parliament and to others who wish to see what the impact would be. But we are absolutely confident that the deal as presented represents the best opportunity for this country, and that is backed up by the analysis.

Brexit: Economic Effects

Debate between Lord Bates and Baroness Quin

Wednesday 21st November 2018 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Quin]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what recent discussions they have had with the Chambers of Commerce and Confederation of British Industry representatives in the United Kingdom’s regions and nations about the economic effects of Brexit.

[The Minister of State, Department for International Development (Lord Bates) (Con)]

My Lords, the Government continue to engage with business groups, including the CBI and the British Chambers of Commerce, on the economic effects of EU exit across the UK’s regions. We remain committed to ensuring that the views of business are reflected in our approach to Brexit, and businesses have responded positively to the draft of the withdrawal agreement published last week.

[Baroness Quin (Lab)]

My Lords, the Government announced in the other place on Monday that they would publish an economic and fiscal analysis of the effects of Brexit. In this House the Minister and his ministerial colleague, the noble Lord, Lord Callanan, have also said that there will be updated impact assessments of the effects of Brexit on our regions and nations. In view of the Prime Minister’s proposed deal, and also of the continuing concerns of business, can the Minister give us some outline of the timetable for publishing this additional information?

Brexit: Economic Effect

Debate between Lord Bates and Baroness Quin

Thursday 18th October 2018 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Quin]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government, further to their assessments of the economic impact of Brexit made available in February, what analysis they have made of the economic effect of Brexit on (1) North East England, (2) other regions of England, and (3) Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

[The Minister of State, Department for International Development (Lord Bates) (Con)]

My Lords, we have committed to ensure that Parliament is presented with the appropriate analysis to make an informed decision when we bring forward the vote on a final deal. At this stage of the negotiation it would not be practical or appropriate to set out the details of exactly how the Government will analyse that final deal.

[Baroness Quin (Lab)]

My Lords, when I last raised this question about the impact assessments and the huge concern that there had been among businesses in the north-east about them, the noble Lord, Lord Callanan, said that further analyses would be undertaken and completed by the time a deal with Brussels had been finalised. Can the Minister give the House and Parliament an assurance that those final impact assessments will be made available both to parliamentarians and to the public so that the economic consequences for our nations and regions can be taken fully into account before any votes are taken in Parliament on this issue?

[Lord Bates]

I am very happy to reiterate that commitment which was given to ensure that, before the meaningful vote—and, indeed, the debate in your Lordships’ House—takes place, there will be an appropriate level of analysis to look at the consequences of the deal. Of course, we cannot set that out in detail now, because we do not know what the shape of that deal will be, but when it comes, that analysis will be made so that people can make an informed decision.

Brexit: Costs

Debate between Lord Bates and Baroness Quin

Wednesday 29th November 2017 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bates]

There are assets on the balance sheet of the European Commission and, be they buildings, satellites or anything else, they will be part of the assets factored in to a fair and reasonable settlement for the United Kingdom.

[Baroness Quin (Lab)]

My Lords, in honouring our commitments—I very much welcome the fact that we will honour our commitments—will the Government explain to Parliament and the wider public the many positive programmes that this money will go towards and on which we hope we will be able to co-operate with the European Union in future? To pick up on the point made by my noble friend Lord Anderson, can we be assured that no more statements such as that about the EU whistling for its money will be uttered from Government Benches?

[Lord Bates]

Certainly, in relation to the ongoing programmes and relationships we are having, once the negotiations have been completed, it is important that we ensure that the British taxpayer understands the importance and value of those ongoing relationships as part of the wider settlement.