Budget Statement

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Wednesday 25th March 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, the Government are very proud of the good things in the economy at the moment. As the Minister said in opening the debate, we have low inflation, low interest rates, high employment and growth figures et cetera, but, as he said, it is austerity to prosperity, and he admitted frankly that productivity is too low and the deficit too high.

Earlier this month, my noble friend Lord Low held a debate which I chaired. The motion was:

“This house believes that the Government’s deficit reduction plan involves cutting the deficit too far and too fast”.

The noble Lord, Lord Skidelsky, was present as well. We had Jonathan Portes, the well known economist, Simon Wren-Lewis, professor of economics at Oxford University, Roger Bootle and Doug McWilliams—all very well known economists. When the motion was put to the vote at the insistence of the noble Lord, Lord Skidelsky, it was carried quite comfortably. The point was made, as the noble Lord, Lord Skidelsky, has mentioned in the debate, that the calculations are that if austerity had not been as severe as it was, the growth rate could have been 5% to 10% higher over the five-year period. One needs just to do the sums to see the difference that that would have made. On the other hand, austerity has created confidence in the global financial markets and we have the security of a lender of last resort in the form of the Bank of England.

The Chancellor has, on the one hand, shown his commitment to long-term prosperity for the economy by sticking to the austerity agenda, but, on the other, he has not had the guts to invest in what will make this country truly competitive and increase the productivity that so many noble Lords have spoken about. For example, where in the Budget is an increase in investment in higher education? We invest less by far as a proportion of GDP than the United States, the EU average and the OECD average. This Labour proposal to reduce tuition fees to £6,000 is a red herring. What we need is more investment in higher education. What about investment in innovation? Where in the Budget is the major investment in R&D and innovation? Once again, we as a country invest way below the United States, the EU and the OECD average as a proportion of GDP. The patent box is tinkering at the edges. How can we get businesses and universities to invest more in innovation? Will the Minister tell us about that?

What about tax rates being competitive? A brilliant thing the Government have done is to bring corporation tax down to 20%. It is one of the best things they have done, attracting inward investment and making our companies more competitive. On the other hand, the Government do not have the guts to bring the income tax rate down to 40%. In his enthusiastic speech, the noble Lord, Lord Rooker, spoke about the catalogue of achievements of the Blair Government. It was the Blair Government who carried on with 40% rate of tax, until it was increased to 50%. It was the Blair Government who reduced capital gains tax to 18%, which was hugely competitive, while entrepreneurs’ relief was 10%, encouraging wealth creation, prosperity and tax competitiveness. On the other hand, the Labour Government’s mistake was to increase public spending to nearly 50% of GDP. This Government want to reduce it to 36% of GDP. I still believe that will require unrealistic and drastic cuts in the welfare state and the NHS, which make up a huge proportion of our public spending. Will the Minister explain how the Government are going to achieve that drastic cut? As the Chancellor said, the EU has 7% of the world’s population, 25% of its economy and 50% of its welfare spending. In the Chancellor’s words, we cannot go on like this. Will the Minister explain what he is going to do?

When it comes to defence, the Government refuse to commit to the 2% of GDP NATO commitment. Will the Minister commit to it? The SDSR was negligent. We do not have our Nimrods, which we now need with Russian submarine incursions. We have no aircraft carrier capability for Harriers, which we have needed several times over the past five years, let alone now with the threat in the Falklands. For one of the strongest defence countries in the world to have no carrier capability for a decade is negligent. The Army cannot even fill Wembley, which is negligent. The security of our country is our number one priority. We have physically destroyed the Nimrods and depend for carriers on the French—on the 200th anniversary of the Battle of Waterloo. Will the Minister tell us whether the back-up from the French has been effective?

When he speaks, will the noble Lord, Lord Davies, speak about Labour’s policies? We hear about the dangerous policies: the mansion tax; raising income tax to 50p; increasing corporation tax by perhaps up to 6%; employees sitting on boards of companies’ remuneration committees; employees being given first refusal when a company is sold; and employees being given a share of companies’ profits. To an entrepreneur and a businessman, these sound like real communist measures, and we know how successful communism has been. The business community has genuine concern about the leader of the Opposition and his care for, knowledge of and familiarity with business. He has missed out business in many major speeches. Will the noble Lord on the Front Bench confirm that these Labour measures will be implemented?

What about the SNP? The leader of the Opposition says he will not go into coalition with the SNP, but what if the SNP props up a Labour Government? It wants to get rid of Trident, our nuclear deterrent. Would the noble Lord, Lord Davies, agree with that? Increase public expenditure and you have the nightmare scenario of Labour being propped up by the SNP. It reminds me that in the middle of the financial crisis, my fellow Fellow of Sidney Sussex College, Cambridge, Desmond Tutu, looked up and said, “Oh God, we know you’re up there, but can you make it a little more obvious?”.

It is a question of balance. Britain is number two in the world in inward investment. We have to protect that, and Governments have not been able to. If you look at the graphs in the Budget reports, Governments have not been able to balance their books. Public spending at 40% is the best a Government can achieve. That is what we should target, and getting a 40% tax take. With regard to debt interest, servicing it alone takes 2.5% of GDP. Will the Minister tell us what the plan is when debt interest goes up? How will the Government deal with that amount of more than £50 billion?

The Office of Tax Simplification is an oxymoron. Simplification of tax collection is in this Budget, but the tax code is still 11,000 pages long. There are huge issues here. As chancellor of the University of Birmingham, I chaired for the first time the university court and the university annual meeting. I was able proudly to say that it is a billion-dollar institution. It has revenue of more than £500 million, a healthy surplus, a healthy cash position and, most importantly, a £300 million infrastructure investment programme over the next five years, with a state-of-the-art swimming pool, libraries, a dental centre, new student accommodation and all the things that make it attractive to inward investment in terms of students and academics from around the world. If only our country could balance its books in that way and have an investment programme in the future, we would be able to get high productivity, get the deficit down and get our debt down.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Davies of Oldham (Lab)]

My Lords, I begin by craving the indulgence of the House. My noble friend Lord Stevenson caught my ear; I was present at the memorial service, and the defence of the arts by Lord Attenborough was a brilliant speech, reprinted in the programme. On either side of it were sayings from Mahatma Gandhi and a Shakespeare sonnet. As far as I was concerned, the service was a work of art in itself on paper before we actually heard the words being read. It was a great occasion.

I would also like to comment on my noble friend Lord Graham. He and I won adjoining seats in Enfield in 1974 and served together there for a number of years. I was delighted that he spoke this evening. I know that it was a limited area on which he spoke and probably pretty marginal to the Budget, but I think it gave cheer to us all that he puts a very high priority on service in this House in difficult times.

This has been an excellent Budget debate—but so was the debate in the House of Commons, which of course went over several days, in which many of the contributions were extremely thoughtful and well worked-through. That suggests that the debate we will have in the country in the general election may reach rather greater heights than some people suggest our political culture is now capable of. It did not start off too well because, as my noble friend Lord Lea indicated, there was pretty well nothing in the Chancellor’s speech about the macroeconomy. It is not long before the election so he indulged in a political speech, but he said little about the macroeconomy.

We had nothing on the question of our balance of payments problem. We had nothing on productivity. In fact, those issues seem to be suffused in the general aura of success, which the noble Lord, Lord Deighton, succeeded in imitating, to a degree, in his opening contribution this evening. What success? The success of the economic plan—but that economic plan became long term when it failed because the Chancellor could not deliver an end to the budget deficit in 2015. So, we have an extended plan, and that plan has some very dire implications indeed.

It is quite clear—it is all in the Red Book—that, as my noble friend Lord Stevenson and many other speakers in the debate said, we have not seen anything yet. The cuts of the past five years are going to be exceeded in three years, which will have a dramatic effect upon our economy and our society. And for why? As the noble Lord, Lord Skidelsky, identified, the Government’s original position way back in 2010 was a false analysis of the crisis leading to some pretty awful solutions to it. My noble friend Lord Layard identified very clearly the basis of the false analysis: that it was all down to excessive spending by the past Labour Government. No, it was not. This country was the second lowest in debt of the advanced countries when we left office and it was not the case that our expenditure had run out of control. What happened was that the global financial crisis, which started in the United States, as described most excellently by my noble friend Lord Rooker, reduced the receipts of government to a calamitous extent.

Of course it needed a significant response, but the idea that it called for a Government imbued with a philosophy of reducing the size of the state and doing everything that they can to get public expenditure down, irrespective of the impact upon our economy and society, it did not need and has not needed but has unfortunately received thus far under this Administration. The task of noble Lords on my side of the House is to make sure that this Government get no opportunity to extend their ill thought-through plans based upon a completely false premise.

We have to recognise that the expenditure cuts that are coming are coming against a base where cuts have been so sharp already that we are getting right to the bone. How can the police meet their obligations with the kinds of cuts that are likely to face them? What about defence? After all, that has, on the whole, been an issue that has concerned the Conservative Party in particular over the years. What does it think about this debate about the 2% figure if defence is to bear its share of the cuts? As defence is an unprotected sector, it is going to, if this Government were returned to power.

What about other areas of expenditure? Local government spends a very great deal of its expenditure on social support and welfare for children and the aged. It is going to get a massive cut in those resources if this Government continue in office.

The challenge is clear. We need to establish that this Government have presided over failure and the slowest recovery for over a century, with a desperate price being exacted from ordinary people.

What about the bedroom tax? The Government recoil at Labour’s proposal on the mansion tax directed towards the wealthy in our society and those who take advantage of the London housing position, to which the noble Baroness, Lady Valentine, referred. Housing in London is critical. We cannot keep the economy of London running if there is a flight of large numbers of people from the city because housing is too expensive because of foreign investment. That is so obvious, but what did the Government say about housing in the Chancellor’s Budget speech? Nothing of any significance.

We have a major task to tackle after what has been a desperate decline in growth, lost revenues, as the noble Lord, Lord Skidelsky, identified so very clearly, and then a little bit of a spurt before the general election, which is about to be put at enormous risk if the Government carry on with their existing policies. It is quite clear that we have a low-wage, low-productivity economy in which people get poor returns for their work and, as the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Portsmouth, identified, many of them are still subject to a marginal rate of taxation—if you take taxation plus national insurance—which renders it difficult for them to sustain their living standards.

We know that the success of an economy cannot be based on low wages and low productivity, not least because the only way in which it has been continued thus far is because migration figures are so high and large numbers of our labour force are earning low wages and doing jobs in circumstances where wider society is more reluctant to respond.

We have 1.8 million zero-hours contracts in this country at present. The tax and national insurance combination has extended to considerable levels. We have a £300 billion deficit on our balance of payments. I will just mention the success story of 2011-12: we lost our triple A credit status. This Chancellor dares to come before the country to say, “Give me a renewal of the mandate because I am doing so well”. In fact, what is reflected is a colossal failure.

That means that we need to take different measures. Labour is quite clear what we are going to do. We intend to raise living standards by increasing the minimum wage, because we do not think that a low-wage economy makes any sense. We intend to safeguard the National Health Service, because we are terrified that such is the level of cuts promised in this Budget, they are bound to impact on the health service. They do in any case, because cuts in social welfare thrust people into the health service through the accident and emergency service. The leakage is already there, but it is due to get a great deal worse if this Government are able to follow through on their plans.

We intend to cut business rates for 1.5 million small business properties by not reducing corporation tax—with a slight increase to corporation tax. We also intend to deal with housing in the only way that one can, which is to build houses. It is not a problem of illegitimate demand—it is a problem of supply. I should have thought that the party of Macmillan in the 1950s would recognise that Governments can put their back into creating supply of houses if they are prepared to do it and it is defined as a priority. By heavens, it ought to be a priority in our country at present.

We are also going to balance the budget and the books in a fair way. That means we shall take a slightly different view on the bedroom tax, which we intend to scrap, and on tax cuts for the very wealthy in our society—the millionaires.

[Lord Bilimoria]

I thank the noble Lord for giving way. Did he just say that there would be a slight increase in corporation tax?

[Lord Davies of Oldham]

My Lords, the Government are promising a reduction. We are not going to carry out that reduction. That is putting it as fairly as I possibly can in comparison between the parties. We will keep it where it is. The Government intend, for reasons best known to themselves, to cut it.

That means that a change of government is absolutely essential. The greatest need is the one that was expressed by my noble friends Lord McFall and Lord Layard, by the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Portsmouth and by my noble friend Lady Thornton, who talked about the position of women in society. It is that we need an improved public morality. We need to recognise that there is more to life than just the economy of getting and spending. Life for people, when it is enriched, is about relationships, fairness and degrees of co-operation to help those who have greater needs—to have some degree of common endeavour. Those are the values of my party, and we intend to carry them out in government.

Economy: Public Finances

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Tuesday 24th March 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, any commitment by the Labour Party would have a lot more credibility if we had even the vaguest clue as to how it was going to get the deficit down.

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

Would the Minister agree that one reason for the credit crunch and the financial crisis seven years ago was the prolonged low rate of interest of 5% a year? Now that the Government have extortionate debt servicing costs at a 0.5% base rate, what plans do they have when interest rates go up, as they will? How will they service those costs, and at what rate are they borrowing for long-term debt at the moment?

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, one of the main reasons why we need to get debt under control is that the long-term borrowing costs are very significant. Whatever the interest rate, even with current low rates of interest, we are spending 2.5% of GDP per annum on servicing it, significantly more than we spend on the aid budget. Because interest rates are low and because we have a very credible economic policy, we have been able to borrow long term at low interest rates—but none the less we need to get the debt down because we want to get the borrowing costs down.

Autumn Statement

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Thursday 4th December 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, in his first Budget in 2010, the Chancellor said that the Government would,

“have debt falling and a balanced structural”,

budget deficit,

“by the end of this Parliament”.—[Official Report, Commons, 22/6/10; col. 168.]

Despite the Chancellor’s tough talk about austerity and cutting public expenditure, the reality is that public expenditure as a percentage of GDP has continued to increase. I thank the noble Viscount, Lord Younger, for leading this debate.

Yesterday, it was announced that the Government will spend £746 billion in 2015-16, rising to £765 billion in 2018-19, compared with £692 billion in 2010. Government spending is increasing and, as a percentage of GDP, our national debt is rising. According to the OBR, it will now peak at 81% of GDP in 2015-16. This means that the Chancellor will completely miss his target to ensure that net debt is falling relative to GDP by 2015-16.

We have a perception of austerity that has simply not been matched by reality. Yesterday, the Chancellor acknowledged that we are at least another four years away from that target. To build on what the noble Lord, Lord Skidelsky, said, if we are borrowing £300 billion more than the Chancellor said he would in 2010, why should anyone believe him this time around? The OBR has predicted that public expenditure is going to have to fall to 35.2% of GDP by 2019-20—the lowest level since the 1930s. Let us remember that the 1930s were pre-welfare state days. Can the Minister confirm that that is really achievable?

In order to achieve those cuts, it is predicted by the OBR that the defence budget, which is already negligently too low, will have to be cut by 60%. Can the Minister confirm that that might have to happen, although it is hoped that it never will? However, I was delighted to hear that the Government will be giving money to veterans, including £2 million for the Gurkhas. I was privileged to have been brought up with the Gurkhas. My late father, Lieutenant-General Bilimoria, was commissioned to the 2nd Battalion, Fifth Gurkha Rifles (Frontier Force), and was president of the Gurkha Brigade when he was commander-in-chief of the Central Indian Army. I was privileged to have been brought up with two Victoria Cross holders from birth—they were living legends. Therefore, I thank the Government for doing that.

However, it is the low level of interest rates for a prolonged period, at the level of 5% that led to the financial crisis from which we suffered. Yet today we are being propped up by interest rates that are 10 times lower—at 0.5%. Government borrowing has been increasing year on year and expenditure on debt interest has contributed to it. It is more than £1.27 trillion and is costing us £1 billion a week—more than the entire defence budget.

Does the Minister agree that interest rates might have to rise? The Governor of the Bank of England made a ridiculous statement that he would start increasing interest rates when unemployment fell below 7%. Unemployment is at 6% now and interest rates have not gone up, but they will go up at some stage, and if they do the debt interest levels will go up. The SNP made the mistake in its budgets with the oil price and its budgets are shot to tatters at the moment. Will the Minister give his views on future interest rates?

Wearing my hat as chancellor of the University of Birmingham I have seen that our higher education sector is one of the jewels in our crown. I am delighted that the Government are about to announce loans for postgraduate studies. On the other hand, we highly underinvest in higher education as a proportion of GDP compared with the OECD, the EU and America. On R&D and innovation, the patent box is all very well—it is stored—but if we invested the same proportion of GDP as countries such as America, the OECD and the EU, we would help our productivity hugely. Our current account deficit has reached 5.2% of GDP, which is worse than Italy and France. Our fiscal deficit of 5% is almost double that of the United States, let alone Germany which has just 0.2%.

As the noble Lord, Lord Adonis, said, skills are so essential. I am proud to be an ambassador for Studio Schools. Last month I opened the Vision Studio School in Mansfield. That is the sort of initiative that I am glad the Government are backing. Tax breaks to apprentices are excellent but, on the other hand, the word “entrepreneurship” was completely missing from the SME Bill. Entrepreneurship should be the cornerstone of our future growth. I launched the 10th anniversary of the Cambridge University Centre for Entrepreneurial Learning this week. That is what we should be backing. The Sirius campaign, backed by UKTI, bringing young entrepreneurs to Britain to develop their businesses, is a great initiative that the Government should be doing.

The Government are doing a lot, but are they doing enough on the big things? We have a tax system that is so complicated that the tax code is now 17,000 pages long. The Office of Tax Simplification is an oxymoron. Our corporation tax rate is low but our income tax rate is too high. Capital gains tax is too high. The Indian restaurant industry which we supply and the Bangladesh Caterers Association UK are constantly complaining about VAT and asking for it to be reduced. Our hospitality and tourism industries say that VAT is far too high. We do not have a competitive tax system.

The noble Lord, Lord Rose, in his excellent speech, spoke about confidence. We need confidence, productivity, and a better educated and more entrepreneurial workforce who think globally. Government expenditure should be at a believable rate: 35% is unachievable; 40% would be a realistic rate. We could then balance our books and have an educated, productive, confident and enterprise-based economy so that, even as 1% of the world’s population—that is all we are—we can continue to punch above our weight.

Income and Wealth Inequality

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Wednesday 26th November 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, I just think that the noble Lord’s figures are wrong. On inequality, I would like to quote Chris Giles from last week’s Financial Times, since noble Lords opposite clearly find it difficult to accept what I am saying about it.

“Since 2008, the earnings distribution has been flat as a pancake. And because the coalition government has protected people dependent on social security more than the working population, inequality of net incomes has edged down”.

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, does the Minister agree, following the noble Lord, Lord Stern, that the Gini coefficient has gone up significantly over the last three decades? There is no question about that, regardless of who has been in government. Does he agree that the living standards of people in this country are far higher than three decades ago, when Britain was the sick man of Europe?

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, I absolutely agree with the noble Lord. Noble Lords will be aware that real incomes are starting to rise again and are projected to do so over the next three or four years by all reputable forecasters.

Defence: Budget

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Tuesday 11th November 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, following on from the remarks of the noble Lord, Lord West, does the Minister agree that the SDSR in 2010 was means before ends? It was negligent in that we had unpredicted events, one after the other—Libya, Iraq, Syria, Ukraine—and our Armed Forces cannot even fill Wembley Stadium. Will the Minister assure us that we will stick to the 2% spending commitment to NATO and that we will not cut our Armed Forces any more?

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, the Government are committed to that 2% for the remainder of this Parliament and into the next Parliament and to keeping the defence equipment budget growing. Any commitments in the medium term beyond that are commitments that the parties will be making in their manifestos.

Tackling Corporate Tax Avoidance: EAC Report

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Wednesday 30th October 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, I declare my various interests in this area. I congratulate the noble Lord, Lord MacGregor, on initiating the debate. I also congratulate my friend the noble Lord, Lord Leigh of Hurley, on his excellent maiden speech. He is a fellow chartered accountant and we have known each other for many years. As he humbly said in his speech, he is also a fellow entrepreneur and a successful one at that. I read a book by a Wharton professor about givers and takers: in life you have givers, takers and matchers. It is not necessarily the case that the givers will get further in life, but when they do get there they always get there in a much better way and have a more sustainable, happier future. The noble Lord, Lord Leigh, is a giver. He has given to this House today his expertise as an entrepreneur, as an expert in corporate finance and as a chartered accountant. We welcome him here.

The noble Lord, Lord MacGregor started with the complexity of the UK tax regime. He spoke about multinationals and the infamous example of Starbucks which, from 2006 to 2011, had UK revenues of $18 billion yet paid UK corporation tax of only $16 million. As the noble Lord said, there is a serious issue of avoidance. The Select Committee on Economic Affairs—I am proud to have been a member of the Finance Bill sub-committee every year—has produced a thorough report, Tackling Corporate Tax Avoidance in a Global Economy: Is a New Approach Needed? The report says right up front that the present system is not working and urgently needs reform. It says that it is confident that the Treasury will bear this in mind as it conducts its proposed review. However, we have heard that the Government have not really listened to the report, and will not be taking much of it into account.

The report highlights that UK corporation tax, having come down to 20%, is the lowest in the G20. The German rate is 29%, France’s is 33% and the United States’s is 40%. This is wonderful news. On the other hand, the report also highlights something which is not understood by the public: a significant feature of the UK’s corporation tax regime is the low rate of allowances for capital spending. Our regime does not encourage investment. In fact, within the OECD and the G20 countries, only one country, Chile, has a less generous allowance than the UK. We must look at this as a whole.

The other major point which has not yet been highlighted in today’s debate is how much corporation tax yields as a percentage of GDP. Again, the report lays this out clearly in a table comparing us with other countries such as France, Germany and the United States. Our UK share of corporation tax receipts has held up pretty well in spite of falling headline rates. As a percentage of GDP, in 2005 corporation tax was 3.2%; today it is 2.7% in spite of rates having fallen. The nub of it all is that, of the contribution by tax to total HMRC receipts, corporation tax stands out in that it is only 8.7%. It is dwarfed by income tax at 32.2%. National insurance contributions constitute 21.8% and VAT constitutes 21.4%. This clearly shows that, yes, everyone is getting upset about corporation tax not being paid by certain companies, but are people talking about all the other taxes that these companies are generating, predominantly through creating employment? Employment generates a far greater proportion of taxes than corporation tax. We are not quite getting the context of and perspective on this. I will come back to that point at the end of my speech.

In fact, 81% of UK corporation tax is paid by the top 1% of companies. Here we are getting upset about 1% of companies; 99%—SMEs have been mentioned—are paying the full rate of corporation tax in many cases. We are losing a sense of perspective. The report says:

“In total, PwC say that Hundred Group members contributed around £8 billion in corporation tax in 2012 and a further £16.8 billion in other taxes borne”.

A multinational company is not taxed as a single entity but as a number of legally distinct, individual companies all over the world. The present tax system around the world encourages multinationals to move their profits around the world. That is the reality. We are trying to stop that. The report recommends ways of stopping it. When I was on the sub-committee for the previous Finance Bill, we focused on the GAAR. As the noble Lord, Lord Hollick, said, when he came up in the business world he was taught the distinction between evasion and avoidance. To a chartered accountant it is very simple: evasion is illegal; avoidance is allowed. Now we are going one step further and saying “abuse” as well. However, it is clear that the GAAR will not catch everything. It is narrowly focused. It will not, for example, catch the Starbucks situation at all. That needs to be communicated. I am glad that the Government have listened and that the GAAR will be communicated to the public.

I am proud to be a fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales. The report says:

“The ICAEW offers advice to its members that appears to go well beyond the Code of Conduct. It states, for example, that ‘Although tax avoidance may be legal, whether something is within the law isn’t the only thing that matters. You are under a duty to take into consideration the public interest and at all times to comply with ICAEW’s Code of Ethics … The boundary between legal tax avoidance and illegal tax evasion is not always clear and there’s a danger that what starts out as legal tax avoidance may slip into illegal tax evasion’”.

Who is competent to catch all of this? The noble Lord, Lord Lawson, raised the point of the structure of HMRC, this merged entity. Is it fit to deal with this? What about the relationship between the Treasury and HMRC? A lot of the policy is formed in the Treasury and HMRC is meant to execute it. Can the Treasury make this policy properly?

Then there is the question of reputation. In my business, our most valuable asset is our brand. The threat of naming and shaming companies is serious. We, as companies, are all very concerned about our brands. Much more can be done in this area by naming and shaming companies.

The Government actively promoting the implementation of the G8 proposals on the movement of funds between companies is very good. We need to continue to do this. Again, however, it will not solve everything. A unitary tax system, treating multinational companies as single entities in the global economy, is attractive in theory, as the report says, but is quite frankly utopian. In practice, we cannot even get the EU to agree on corporation tax rates. How on earth are we going to get the whole world to agree on something? We have to realistic and practical about this.

The setting up of a Joint Committee to supervise and oversee this matter is a great idea. The expertise of the House of Lords in this area is far greater than the expertise in the other place. This expertise is used in the Finance Bill sub-committee. If it could be used on a permanent basis, that would be great. Will the Minister consider forming such a committee to oversee the issue on a general basis? I think that the confidentiality argument is absolute nonsense, as was said by noble Lords earlier.

I now come to the points made by the noble Lord, Lord Lawson, which I thought were excellent. He hit the nail on the head. He said that corporation tax in the modern world is inequitable between multinationals and SMEs and that, in the way it is structured at the moment, it has had its day. He has summed it up. The noble Lord, Lord Browne, talked about a tax gap of £32 billion and said that the tax gap is going up. I want to refer to a friend of mine, Vindi Banga, who is a former head of Unilever in India and was then on the main board of Unilever here in the UK—companies do not get more multinational than Unilever. He wrote an excellent article earlier this year in the Telegraph, headed, “Tax compliance should be judged by rules and not morals”. This was when the Starbucks issue was at its height, when it was being bashed by politicians—the noble Lord, Lord Hollick, referred to this. The Prime Minister, David Cameron, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, said:

“Companies must wake up and smell the coffee”.

One cannot get more specific than that. Vindi Banga then talked about IP royalties; the way companies move profits around the world, perfectly legally. One way, of course, is to charge royalties from where the IP is headquartered. Let us say that the IP is headquartered in a country outside the UK; royalties are charged and paid, reducing the tax here in the UK. However, what we overlook is that the UK is also a recipient of royalties and we encourage IP. We encourage the innovation of IP, the generating of IP and the holding of IP. In net receipt terms, the UK receives more royalty income than we pay out. So it will go against us if we stop that in trying to address tax evasion.

The other point that Vindi Banga made—this is my main point—is that our tax system has to be competitive because we, as companies, operate in a really competitive environment. In fact, while evasion is immoral, avoidance, if it is legal, is a duty: companies almost have a duty to try to pay as little tax as possible in order to be as competitive as possible and to survive and compete in the global environment. However, there is something that could and should be done. Could the Government bring in even more regulation for companies to disclose all the tax that they are paying in one simple table? Every company would disclose how much it generates as a result of its operations in terms of PAYE paid, employer national insurance paid, employee national insurance paid, VAT collected as a result of sales, and corporation tax. In my company’s case, there would also be the excise duty generated as a result of the company’s existence. That would put into perspective how much tax a company is generating.

The noble Lord, Lord Leigh of Hurley, made a very valid point about the legislation that exists because our tax code is so complex. In spite of all the efforts of the noble Lord, Lord Lawson, we still have such a complex tax system and legislation is constantly plugging holes. The noble Lord, Lord Leigh, said, very correctly, that it is not fit for purpose and that we must continue to try for a global solution. He spoke very clearly about SMEs, which are paying too much tax, in relative terms, unfairly. As a country, we do not have a competitive tax regime overall. Our corporation tax rate may be one of the lowest, but our capital allowances, on the other hand, are not good enough and our top rate of income tax, at 45%, is still very high. The overall tax burden on the consumer and on companies is actually very high. Do the Government have the guts to address the overall situation?

I conclude by getting to the crux of all this, which is that we should not really be focusing on corporation tax, although we must address that. My dream is for us to have a simpler, fairer tax system that is competitive, attracts investment and promotes spending, saving and growth.

Bank of England: Monetary Policy Committee

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Monday 14th October 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, that is what the Bank of England Act says. The Monetary Policy Committee is operationally independent. The remit of the Monetary Policy Committee has to be set by the Governor of the Bank of England. It has to be renewed every year. It was renewed this year. The difference between this year and previous years is that the Chancellor asked the governor to look at possible methods of forward guidance which would give greater certainty to the markets about the medium-term movement of interest rates and, indeed, QE. That is exactly what the governor did, in line with the request from the Chancellor which was in line with the provisions of the Bank of England Act.

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, I join in wishing the noble Lord, Lord Barnett, a very happy 90th birthday. He has asked an excellent question in that it relates to forward guidance. For a long time I have been saying that when setting interest rates the Governor of the Bank of England and the Monetary Policy Committee should look not just at inflation targeting but at the wider economy. This is excellent news. However, is it wise that the governor should tie himself down to a specific level of 7% unemployment, after which interest rates are to be raised, unless inflation is going out of control? When does the Minister think that the 7% will be achieved? Secondly, would it not have been wiser to have had a wider remit taking into account other aspects of the economy, not just inflation targeting?

[Lord Newby]

As the noble Lord says, the governor is now looking at unemployment in terms of when interest rates might change, but there is no iron rule that the moment unemployment rates hit 7%, interest rates will go up. There are three potential arguments which would mitigate against that, of which by far the most important is if the outlook for inflation was higher. As to when we might reach 7%, in August when the Bank of England published its report suggesting this, it thought it would be in the third quarter of 2016. The good news is that since then the economy has grown more quickly, and the consensus is now settling around summer 2015.

Finance Bill

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Monday 15th July 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bilimoria]

My Lords, I declare my interests in this area. I remember when qualifying as a chartered accountant it was very clear that tax avoidance was legal and tax evasion was illegal. Recently, there has been a huge public outcry about avoidance having escalated to abuse and companies operating within the law have been vilified.

The tax gap has been estimated at around £32 billion. Within that tax gap, it is estimated that the annual cost of tax avoidance is around £5 billion and the annual cost of tax evasion about £4 billion. The official definition of tax avoidance is,

“bending the rules of the tax system to gain a tax advantage that Parliament never intended. … It involves operating within the letter but not the spirit of the law. Tax avoidance is not the same as legitimate tax planning”.

Tomorrow an event will be held by the All-Party Parliamentary Group for Social Science and Policy entitled, “What can policy makers do to reduce tax avoidance by large companies?”. The invitation letter to the event states:

“Tax avoidance by multinational companies such as Google, Starbucks and Amazon has sparked a public outcry. A recent poll commissioned by ActionAid found that 80% of people want the government to take tougher action. In 2012 Amazon paid just £2.4m of UK corporation tax on UK sales of £4.2bn—less than the £2.5m it received in government grants. Thames Water paid no corporation tax and pocketed a £5m credit from the Treasury. Every pound lost through tax avoidance could have been spent on protecting public services—yet last year HM Revenue & Customs wrote off £5bn in tax as uncollectable. It estimates the … ‘tax gap’ at £32bn”—

as I said—

“while many tax experts believe the … figure is twice that”.

I thank the noble Lord, Lord MacGregor, and the Economic Affairs Committee, of which I was proud to be a member, and all the officials—Bill Sinton and the team. It was a tremendously constructive and pro-active committee in which to take part.

In his opening speech, the Minister said that the objectives are to improve competitiveness, tackle tax avoidance and help hard-working families. The noble Lord, Lord MacGregor, made the very important point that, for the first time, we as a committee were able to meet in advance of the Finance Bill being published and look at a draft version. I congratulate the Government on allowing us to do this and thus take advantage of this House’s expertise.

There is no question that the intentions of the GAAR—the general anti-abuse rule—are good. However, does the Minister accept that it is too narrowly targeted and focused through the double reasonableness test, and therefore will not catch the Googles, the Amazons and the Starbucks? Do the Government accept, as the noble Lord, Lord MacGregor, said, that they need to communicate very clearly to the press and public that this will not happen, although the intentions are very good, given that people have the expectation that now that the GAAR is there, all this tax avoidance—tax abuse on a large scale—will disappear?

As the noble Lord, Lord MacGregor, said, the important point is that this needs to be tackled internationally. Are the Government confident that they will be able to do that on an overall basis? Furthermore, I do not think that the public understand clearly where the tax that is generated comes from or the composition of the tax pie. Will the Government confirm that they will publish tax information to enable everyone to understand where the tax they are paying is going so that they understand clearly that corporation tax actually makes up a very small proportion of the tax that is generated in this country? The companies that are being attacked should pay more corporation tax but are they being sufficiently congratulated on the employment they are generating, the taxes generated through that employment, the innovation they are generating and the business they are bringing to this country? Are things being looked at in proportion? However, as the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, said, there is no question that the GAAR should at the least be a deterrent and send out a signal that tax avoidance which becomes abuse is not acceptable.

The cap on income tax reliefs was not consulted on properly by the Government. It was ill thought through and I agree with the noble Baroness, Lady Wheatcroft, that it risks restricting reliefs for genuine trading and other losses. In fact, she described it as perverse. I request that the Government do a more detailed review to get a better understanding of the effect of the cap because it could hamper business investment. The Government did very well in consulting on the GAAR, but unfortunately I do not think that they consulted adequately on the caps and reliefs. The noble Lord, Lord MacGregor, spoke about simplification and the noble Baroness, Lady Wheatcroft, spoke about Tolley’s Tax Guide getting bigger and bigger. Surely the Minister would agree that the Government should be working towards simplifying tax. Could he confirm that?

President Clinton spoke here in London a few years ago and I remember him clearly saying that, increasingly, we live in a world that is more interconnected and integrated. Now the time has come to work together to tackle this tax abuse on a global scale. Better transparency is the only way that we can deal with it. The noble Lord, Lord Wakeham, as a fellow chartered accountant, summed it up beautifully when he talked about being true and fair. That is what we were brought up to do. Audit reports had to reflect a true and fair view. We have to aim for that.

Once again, I thank the committee, the noble Lord, Lord MacGregor, and the officials. I also thank the Government for consulting and allowing us to meet in advance so that the House of Lords can play a role and use our expertise, even though we have no power whatever over financial matters. Here is an opportunity for us to give our views in advance, and to have them listened to and taken into account by the other place, so that, as the Minister said, we have a tax system that will tackle avoidance, is fair and, most importantly, is competitive, transparent and simple.

Financial Services

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Thursday 20th June 2013 Grand Committee

[Lord Bilimoria]

My Lords, in 2011, the financial and insurance services sector contributed more than £125 billion to the GVA of the UK economy. That is more than 9% of our total GVA. London itself accounted for 46% of the total GVA of the finance and insurance sector in 2009. The contribution to jobs approaches 4%. The other point is that trade in financial services contributed huge amount to the trade surplus that the UK has in services. The banking sector alone contributed £21 billion to UK tax receipts in corporation tax, income tax and national insurance. The OBR has shown that in 2007-08, the effective tax burden from corporate and income tax as a share of the GVA was the highest for the financial intermediaries. That is partly because of the relatively high profits that the sector makes compared to its contribution to GVA. Again, according to the OBR, in 2010-11 the financial sector accounted for around 7% of government receipts once the bank payroll tax and bank levy were included.

It is a huge sector. As the noble Baroness, Lady Goudie, said, the financial services sector accounts for 9.6% of GDP, but if you add the professional services—a further 4.9%—it makes up almost 15%. Relative to other countries, the financial services sector is very important for Britain. It is much higher than in the United States, where it is just over 7% of the economy, and it is more than double a percentage of our GDP compared with countries such as Japan, France and Germany.

Of course, we then come on to the question of whether we have a balanced economy. I thank the noble Lord, Lord Dykes, for initiating this really important debate at this time. The noble Lord, Lord Flight, mentioned the importance of the City of London. The joke is that the Lord Mayor of London—and the City—makes the money and the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, spends the money. I do not think that this bizarre situation exists anywhere else in the world, where you have power and finance in a square mile of a huge city. Do we have the balance right? Do we have the relationship right? Does it need to change? I am not suggesting for one moment that it needs to, but I would be very interested in the Government’s opinion on this very important relationship.

The noble Lord, Lord Dykes, spoke about the European Union. One of the UK’s great advantages, particularly when it comes to financial services, is that we are not only at the top table of the European Union but we are seen by countries such as India as a gateway to Europe. As a founding chairman of the UK-India Business Council, I know how important this is for Indian companies. It is crucial that we stay at the top table of Europe, although I completely agree with the noble Lord, Lord Dykes, that any talk of a tax on financial transactions would be a disaster. We need to keep the balance right and thank God we do not belong to the euro.

Another advantage that London has is AIM. The Alternative Investment Market started in 1995 and is coming up to its 20th anniversary. It is a huge success but to this day, AIM shares are not allowed to be included in ISAs. I declare my interest as the senior independent director of the Booker Group. When I joined the board nearly six years ago we were an AIM company. We then graduated to the main list and are now a FTSE-250 company. I find the situation so difficult to understand. I believe the Chancellor said in the Autumn Statement that this would be looked into and that consultations would start in 2013. They still have not started and AIM shares still cannot be included in ISAs. So we are not really encouraging investment in these shares as much as we could. AIM is a crucial market in encouraging entrepreneurship and growth companies, not just for the UK but I know how attractive an AIM listing is even to companies from India. Perhaps the Minister could talk about the importance of AIM, in particular AIM in ISAs.

When I used to promote Britain when doing business with India, I would always speak with pride of our light-touch regulation and of what Margaret Thatcher did in the 1980s in opening up Britain and the City of London with the big bang, and how this gentlemen’s club and closed shop opened up into being a meritocracy, and the world’s greatest financial institutions flocked to London, and London has flourished. But later, after the financial crisis, my colleagues abroad would say, “Ah, what happened to your light-touch regulation?”. I would speak with pride about the independence of the Monetary Policy Committee, one of the best things that Gordon Brown did when he was Chancellor.

However, in 2007, when this country was hit by the subprime crisis that became the credit crunch, that became the financial crisis, that became the great recession, that turned into the sovereign debt crisis, that turned into the eurozone crisis, we realised the mistakes that we had made. The Treasury, Bank of England and the FSA, which in all the good times leading up to this crisis were a happy merry-go-round, suddenly turned into this great blame-go-round. I remember taking part in the debates on the Bill to nationalise Northern Rock in early 2008. Northern Rock went bust in September 2007 and was nationalised within six months; it cost £26 billion to bail out a company—the biggest bailout of any one company in the history of the world. We are now talking about RBS and Lloyds. It has now taken six years to come up with our new financial supervision regulations which will be much more robust. Perhaps the Minister could talk about that.

We get into problems and are attacked because of our tax system and companies not paying enough tax. Well, the GAAR—the anti-abuse regulations—have been brought in, but will not stop the Starbucks and Googles from what they are doing. This brings me to the point of perception and reality. I chaired a meeting of the Industry and Parliament Trust. Sadly, the public’s trust in business is 16%, and in government it is 17%. Shockingly, in a poll after the Olympics which asked, “Are you proud of Britain?”, the vast majority of the public were. When asked, “Are you proud of British business?”, only 4% were.

Earlier this week, I spoke at Oxford University for the reputation executive leadership programme at the Centre for Corporate Reputation in the Saïd Business School. It is clear there that the finance sector, and bankers in particular, have a terrible reputation at the moment. There is a lack of trust. On brands, which I spoke about, the financial sector, London and the City are a brand. What is a brand? I know about brands from my own business, Cobra Beer. A brand is what a brand does. The Harvard Business Review recently published a survey of 25,000 companies over 40 years. It identified the companies that were successful over a sustained period and called them miracle makers. They followed three principles: first, they followed “better before price”; secondly, “revenue before costs”; and thirdly, only those first two principles mattered. “Better before price” is all about quality. The City has fantastic quality, our financial sector has amazing quality and our professional services have the best of the best in the world.

“Revenue before costs” is about whether we are growing enough. Are the Government committed to growing the financial sector? I hope that with the arrival of the new Governor of the Bank of England—a Canadian, of which I am proud; it shows our openness as a country and an economy—not only will we target inflation but GDP growth. Will the Minister confirm that? It would promote growth in our financial sector.

I conclude that, while we may not have an empire any more, one of the legacies of the biggest empire that the world has ever known is the City of London and our great financial sector. It is one of the jewels in the Crown of our great country.

Queen’s Speech

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Monday 13th May 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bilimoria]

My Lords, the gracious Speech said a lot of really good things: build a stronger economy so that the United Kingdom could compete and succeed in the world; strengthen Britain’s economic competitiveness; ensure that interest rates are kept low and that people who work hard are properly rewarded; invest in infrastructure—I could go on. It is terrific.

However, when I was making my maiden speech, as the noble Baroness, Lady Lane-Fox, did today, in the same debate on the economy, I was advised, “Don’t worry about what’s in the gracious Speech; you can speak about things that are not in the gracious Speech”. I congratulate the noble Baroness on an excellent maiden speech. I am delighted to have a fellow entrepreneur in the House, and on the Cross Benches too. She spoke passionately about online inclusiveness, and I am sure that from now on all Peers will be online. Of course, we already are.

What is missing? What has been picked up in a huge way is Europe. The noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, said that to him this was like Groundhog Day—déjà vu. I am not going to go into that topic. Europe is going to go on for a long time. The eurozone crisis has not gone away. There are regular lulls before the storm, but that storm is still about to come and it will be a perfect storm. I believe that we need to start with a clean sheet of paper and renegotiate our position in Europe. I say every day, “Thank God we are not in the euro”.

As an economy, we may have lost our triple-A rating but our interest rates are low and our inflation is relatively low. However, although we have avoided a triple dip, we are bumping along the bottom. We need to generate growth. What worries me is the Government’s priorities in achieving this. Why did we waste so much time pushing through employees giving up their rights for shares? This was against the will of business. It was twice sent back by the House of Lords to the House of Commons. It has gone through in a watered-down way. The lesson that I have learnt from this is that I could see very clearly that the Government had not consulted business properly first or listened to it. One of my favourite sayings in business is that good judgment comes from experience and experience comes from bad judgment. Will the Minister confirm that the Government have learnt from this mistake?

[Lord Lea of Crondall]

If the noble Lord will forgive me—this is a slightly sensitive subject—in regretting that noble Lords did not press their amendment, he may just be reminded that it was a Cross-Bencher, the noble Lord, Lord Pannick, who had put up an excellent performance on the first two occasions, who withdrew the amendment.

[Lord Bilimoria]

The noble Lord, Lord Pannick, did an excellent job, and the noble Lord is absolutely right. Will the Government accept, learn and consult business more in future?

The spending review is about to come along. Are the Government on target, given that, as the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, said, our borrowings are increasing and will double to £1.5 trillion? We have to bring government expenditure as a proportion of GDP down. Is there a target of 40% of GDP for government spending? Could the Minister confirm that?

With regard to priorities, immigration has reared its head again. I am really worried about this. The gracious Speech mentions dealing with illegal immigration, the bad immigration that harms our country, and yes, we need to deal with that. Unfortunately, though, the signals that are being sent out, reinforced by highlighting immigration in the gracious Speech, are about discouraging and deterring the immigration that we benefit from. The number of Indian students has gone down by more than 40,000. In fact, recently we had a former head of immigration from Australia in the UK, and he said that every day in Australia they pray and thank God for the existence of the UK Border Agency. It has been proven unfit for purpose; that is why it is being dismantled. We are harming our competitiveness. If students do not come here, they go to Australia, Canada and the United States. It is one of our biggest strengths. We need to send out a very clear signal that we want immigration to benefit this country and that we appreciate the good immigration that has benefited it.

On infrastructure and High Speed 2, the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, hesitated, but in his fantastic speech moving the Motion for an humble Address, the noble Lord, Lord Lang, spoke about High Speed 2 being a good investment in infrastructure from which our grandchildren will benefit. It is high speed being delivered at slow speed. Will the Minister confirm exactly when this project will be completed? It is an example of long-term thinking, which is great. The Minister spoke about Crossrail. I congratulate the Government on Crossrail. It is a fantastic initiative, started by the previous Government, which will benefit our economy, but nobody has spoken about Heathrow and the desperate need to improve our air services. We need that third runway at Heathrow. Why are the Government just postponing it?

What about a balanced economy? There is nothing in the gracious Speech about a balanced economy. When I am asked about my business, I say with pride that first and foremost we are manufacturers. Are the Government keen on promoting manufacturing? What are they going to do about that? We should be maximising our competitive strengths.

The tourism industry brings more than £115 billion to this economy. Expanding Heathrow would help tourism, but the most photographed building in the world is the Eiffel Tower. The second most photographed building in the world is our wonderful Palace of Westminster. The reason it is second is because we are not in the Schengen scheme for visas. There are so many people, particularly from China, who come to Europe, come as far as the channel, but do not come to the UK because a Schengen via for 25 countries is cheaper than a UK and Ireland visa. We should join Schengen. Anyone who has a Schengen visa should be able to come into this country. The reason we do not join Schengen is that we are worried about our border security. I have just spoken about the UK Border Agency. Why are the Government continually postponing imposing exit checks at our borders? They need to be brought in soon. We know who is coming into our country, but we do not know who is leaving. We need to have those exit checks. Will the Minister inform us of when they are going to be introduced?

Another of our competitive strengths is higher education, but there was not one mention of it in the gracious Speech. Earlier this month it was mentioned in this House that the University of Cambridge has achieved more Nobel Prizes than any other university. That is something of which we should be proud. That is in spite of the fact that we spend less as a proportion of GDP on R&D and innovation than the OECD or the European Union. We spend half the proportion of GDP on R&D that South Korea spends. When it comes to higher education funding, overall we spend less as a proportion of GDP than the EU average or the OECD average and way below countries such as the United States. Why is it that the United States always bounces back quickly? Why is it so competitive? Why is it so productive? Why it is so innovative? It is because it invests more than we do as a proportion of GDP in innovation and higher education. Why do the Government not do more of this?

Will the Minister confirm that we are going to be promoting clusters? There are three big clusters in the world: Silicon Valley, Boston-Cambridge in Massachusetts and Cambridge in the UK. We need to promote more clusters. Birmingham, for example, is a prime location for a manufacturing cluster. Will the Government promote clusters more proactively?

The noble Lord, Lord McFall, spoke about the financial sector. I remember speaking in the debates about Northern Rock. That was six years ago. The nationalisation of Northern Rock was rushed through in six months. It has taken us six years to get to reforming our banking system. That is scary. I am very hopeful, and I congratulate the Government on appointing Mark Carney, a Canadian, to come in and head our Bank of England. Can the Government confirm that, apart from inflation targeting, they will now encourage the Bank of England to also have nominal GDP growth targeting as well? On SMEs, which other noble Lords have spoken about, I keep hearing that they cannot raise finance. In fact, I have heard that the enterprise finance guarantee scheme loans are falling. Can the Minister confirm that? They should be increasing at times like this, when businesses desperately need finance.

On a positive note, I am delighted with the efforts that the Government are putting in through UK Trade and Investment to promote British businesses doing business abroad. I am delighted to hear that the UK India Business Council, which is funded by UK Trade and Investment and of which I am the founding chair, is now to be opening up within India. The British high commission in India has opened up two new deputy high commissions in Hyderabad and Chandigarh and will increase the number of people on the ground helping to promote British business in India. This is fantastic. As the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, concluded, we must promote and encourage our businesses not just in doing business with Europe, but in doing business with the emerging markets such as India—the BRIC nations.

The Government are doing a fantastic job through their marketing campaign, “Great Britain”. The “Great Britain” campaign tries to promote Britain with confidence aboard. I suggest that we need a “Great Britain” campaign to promote Britain within Britain. We do not appreciate enough the amazing strengths that we have as a country. We have the best of the best in the world in just about every field you could imagine, whether it is the creative industries or the legal and accounting professions, and manufacturing including beer, automobiles and aerospace, as well as sport, film and theatre. Our universities are, along with America’s, the best in the world. London is the greatest of the world’s great cities. I could go on.

We may be bumping along the bottom as an economy, but we should never take for granted the amazing strengths that I wish the Government would get behind—strengths which we should spread with confidence throughout our country. Then we will be able to generate growth with confidence.