Finance Bill

Lord Forsyth of Drumlean Excerpts

2nd reading & Committee negatived & 3rd reading
Tuesday 8th June 2021 Lords Chamber

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

My Lords, I begin by expressing complete agreement with everything the noble Lord, Lord Butler, has just said, in particular what he said about the officials who supported the sub-committee and about the chairman, my noble friend Lord Bridges. When I asked him to take on the chairmanship of the sub-committee so that I did not have to chair both, I thought it was something of a hospital pass—but he did it absolutely brilliantly and with great distinction in what is a very complex area. We were very grateful to him for the leadership he gave in his indefatigable way. As the noble Lord, Lord Butler, said, we should be grateful that some of the recommendations have been accepted. I am probably the cynic: they were the ones of general principle, rather than the specifics.

I want to focus on this doorstep of a Bill. The papers I am holding are the Finance Bill and the papers that enable us to understand what is in it. I cannot help but ask my friend on the Front Bench: whatever happened to tax simplification? Whatever became of the Government’s declared policy of lower, flatter, fairer, simpler taxes? That policy was grounded in the belief that individuals, families and companies will make better investment decisions than Governments and that wealth creation is essential to the support of key public services such as health, education and social care. We wait with bated breath for the Government’s response to the Economic Affairs Committee on social care and on higher and further education.

We face the biggest financial crisis of our lifetimes—even our lifetimes in this House. It is an enormous challenge facing the Government, but the Covid measures continue to destroy our productive economy. Like a scorpion, the virus leaves behind its sting in the huge backlog of patients requiring serious procedures; the damage done to our young people’s education and career prospects; the impending crisis in housing caused by rent arrears; and the unemployment currently disguised by the furlough scheme continuing. Major industries have haemorrhaged cash on an enormous scale. Substantial debt provided by the Treasury has been taken on and, frankly, will never be repaid. Are we seriously going to take £20 a week from some of the poorest people in the land, just as electricity and food costs are rising? That decision alone is some £6 billion.

What is the Government’s strategy for facing this challenge? Tax and spend is not the answer. Nor can we continue selling IOUs to ourselves, which is given the name “quantitative easing”—a subject the main committee is about to report on. Inflation is already coming down the track, with the costs of raw materials soaring and pressure on wages rising because of labour shortages at a time when the Government are maintaining employment for many people through the taxpayer.

The Bank of England’s reassuring messages that there is nothing to see here and nothing to worry about, and that it will delay interest rates as soon as there is inflation—which will be a short-term effect—worry me. I remember, when I was a young man first engaging in politics, how quickly inflation got out of control, as people started pricing for anticipated rates of inflation. It ended in inflation of over 20%, interest rates of 15% and a lot of pain faced by the Conservative Party in government and the country as a whole. Inflation may be convenient for Governments with big debts but, as Jim Callaghan put it, inflation is the father and mother of unemployment.

The only way we can get through this crisis is by getting our economy growing again. That means recognising that the current long-term growth projections of just under 2% from the Government’s own statisticians are wholly inadequate and not acceptable. We need to change our strategy.

Increasing corporation tax—here I disagree with the noble Lord, Lord Butler—is the opposite of what is needed if we want to see more investment, growth and employment. Entering a cartel to set a minimum level of corporation tax may be good news for the United States, with revenues from its increasingly overmighty tech companies, but what happened to that vision of global Britain—the place to invest and create jobs and prosperity? The thinking embodied in the Chancellor’s welcome vision for free ports needs to be applied to the nation as a whole. If we believe in competition as the way to secure innovation and prosperity, why are we suddenly abandoning competition in taxation? “Take back control” was as much about setting our own taxes and laws as about regulation. It should be for the other place to decide tax matters and tax policy, not the President of the United States, and not by international treaty. It is the other place’s duty to vote means of supply, and it is wrong for the Executive to circumvent that in this way.

I fear that, as the President of the United States now appears to want to opine on the Northern Ireland protocol, it may be time for Boris Johnson to have his “Love Actually” moment and not just make the speech but unleash the talents of the British people. That means supporting the self-employed and encouraging outsourcing. While it is commendable that HMRC tackles tax dodgers and abusers, this should not be at the expense of struggling self-employed businesses by imposing additional costs. The self-employed are not the same as those on PAYE. There is no statutory sick pay for them and no holiday entitlement, and the next penny depends on identifying the next job. IR35 is having a severe impact and will discourage others to set up on their own. I talked to someone in exactly that position just over the weekend. These small and medium-sized businesses are the seed corn of our future growth, and the Government should honour their long-standing promise to bring forward a new status for self-employment following the Taylor report, as my noble friend Lord Bridges indicated in his excellent speech a few minutes ago. This was also a manifesto commitment; I cannot remember how many manifestos ago it was, but it was certainly a clear commitment from this Government.

It now seems every Finance Bill brings forward new powers for HMRC, even before the review of the use of existing powers is completed. This Bill is no exception, taking away the right of appeal to a tribunal for financial institutions to provide specific information about a taxpayer. The disgraceful and effectively retrospective treatment of loan charge victims, such as local authority and health service workers placed in schemes by their employers without full understanding of what they meant, has not been matched with the same zeal in pursuing those responsible for marketing those schemes, now languishing on their superyachts with their ill-gotten gains. I am disappointed that the Government have refused to apply measures retrospectively to these promoters, as recommended by the Finance Bill Sub-Committee, but I welcome the proposals for tougher action that are currently subject to consultation. It is beyond belief that these schemes are still being promoted, and some are targeting workers returning to the NHS. HMRC itself has been using firms that use these schemes.

To conclude, we need a clear vision from the Prime Minister and the Chancellor and a strategy to get our economy going again if we are to meet our duty to secure a safety net for those most vulnerable and disadvantaged in our country. Higher taxes, more bureaucracy and continuing uncertainty are anathema to achieving that, for, as the Book of Proverbs reminds us,

“Where there is no vision, the people perish.”

Budget Statement

Lord Forsyth of Drumlean Excerpts

Friday 12th March 2021 Lords Chamber

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con) [V]]

My Lords, I join others in congratulating the noble Lord, Lord Khan, and my noble friends Lord Cruddas and Lord Benyon, on their maiden speeches.

I hope that the usual channels are hanging their heads in shame this morning. The country is facing its worst ever economic shock in peacetime, and we are asked to debate these two Motions in two minutes. Not even the late Nicholas Parsons would have expected the profound questions facing our country to be dealt with in “Just a Minute”, although our new imposed procedures ensure that ministerial replies are delivered without interruption.

We are sleepwalking into an unemployment crisis. Public sector borrowing is at astronomical levels. Productivity is almost stagnant. Quantitative easing is on an industrial scale. The independence of the Bank of England is being questioned, as the noble Lord, Lord King, indicated earlier in the debate. We need a strategy that shifts public spending from job protection to job creation. The youngest and lowest paid in our country have suffered the most damage to their livelihoods, with folk under 25 more than two and a half times more likely to work in a shut-down sector. Businesses and families are saddled with crippling debt, and the Budget does not provide for inevitable future demands in areas such as social care, local government and transport.

Higher taxes are not the answer now. We need an economy that is growing again, with supply side measures and encouragement and support for the self-employed and small business, for technology, for the seed corn of recovery. To reduce all of these and other questions for consideration to speeches of two minutes makes a mockery of this House. Why we could not have had two days’ debate or started at 9am and finished in the evening escapes me. If this House cannot hold the Executive to account, it has no purpose, and there are an increasing number of critics outside who will relish spectacles such as today’s.

Ministerial and other Maternity Allowances Bill

Lord Forsyth of Drumlean Excerpts

Committee stage & Committee: 1st sitting (Hansard) & Committee: 1st sitting (Hansard): House of Lords
Thursday 25th February 2021 Lords Chamber

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con) [V]]

My Lords, I echo the sentiments just expressed by my noble friend Lord Mancroft. I do not think that I have ever done this before, but I circulated to a number of people the speech made by my noble friend Lady Noakes. It was outstanding and my only regret is that I was not able to be present to participate in the debate on Second Reading.

This is an important matter. In the 38 years or so that I have been associated with both Houses of Parliament, I have seen a steady decline in respect for both Houses and for the proceedings in Parliament. It is important that we should produce legislation which carries consent and that uses language which people find acceptable and is made as understandable as possible. I cannot imagine—not that any of us are allowed to go to the Dog and Duck or the Rover’s Return, or indeed to any pub—people in the pub referring to “a person” who is pregnant rather than “a woman”, or to “a person” who has given birth to a child, as opposed to “a woman”.

I have to say to my noble friend Lord True that he has done a great piece of work today because I know, having spoken to him earlier in the week, that there were a number of difficulties that needed to be circumvented in order to bring forward his proposition today that he would support the amendment moved by my noble friend Lord Lucas. Like others, I would have preferred the use of “woman” to “mother”, but I am not going to argue about that. My noble friend has done a brilliant job and I share the view that, had my noble friend Lady Noakes not taken her stand, this legislation, I fear, would have gone through in its original form.

I would say to the noble Baroness, Lady Barker, who we all respect enormously, that I think that she has gone off the rails a bit here. If the argument is that any Bill should avoid words that are not gender-neutral, the very title of this Bill, which includes the word “maternity”, would not have been able to pass that test, as the noble Lord, Lord Winston, pointed out.

I was intrigued by the Government’s argument that they were simply following the procedure established some time ago by Jack Straw. Parliamentary counsel’s drafting guidance, which is perfectly sensible, states that it is necessary to avoid

“nouns that might appear to assume that a person of a particular gender will do a particular job or perform a particular role.”

It is clear that in the case of childbirth, referring to “mothers” or “women” in this context is certainly not contrary to that drafting guidance. I therefore congratulate my noble friend Lord True, who on this occasion has proved to be the midwife delivering common sense.

I should say to noble Lords that my name is down to speak to Amendment 32, but in the light of the Minister’s generous acceptance of the amendment moved by my noble friend Lord Lucas, I do not consider it necessary for me to detain the House by speaking to it.

[Baroness Goudie (Lab) [V]]

My Lords, I was pleased to hear from my noble friend about the drafting rules, as I have tried to fathom them out over the past 24 hours. I thank the Minister for coming round to our view. It is the first time in some while that he and I have agreed. I also thank my noble friend Lord Hunt of Kings Heath and the noble Baroness, Lady Noakes. Without their persistence on this issue, we would not be where we are today.

However, there is the unfinished business of maternity leave not only for Members of the House of Commons, who are Members of Parliament, but also for their staff and for Members of the House of Lords who become pregnant, and other Ministers. I would like the consultation on these issues to be brought forward quickly, so that everyone is in line and has the same support, and the same rules apply.

Further, I am supportive of trans people and it is important that we have respect for language in every way; that is why I accept the language to be used in this Bill. It would have been better to have used the word “mother” rather than “woman”, but be that as it may, I am happy to accept the amendment.

European Union (Future Relationship) Bill

Lord Forsyth of Drumlean Excerpts

3rd reading & 2nd reading & Committee negatived & 2nd reading (Hansard) & 2nd reading (Hansard): House of Lords & 3rd reading (Hansard) & 3rd reading (Hansard): House of Lords & Committee negatived (Hansard) & Committee negatived (Hansard): House of Lords
Wednesday 30th December 2020 Lords Chamber

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con) [V]]

My Lords, I associate myself with the immense chorus of colleagues who have paid tribute to my noble friend Lord Cavendish. His good humour, balance and wonderful contribution to this House are a very great loss, and I am personally sad to see him go.

On Brexit, your Lordships’ House has not covered itself in glory. In the battle of Peers versus people, today the people triumph and we are within hours of becoming an independent country again. All those endless debates aimed at overturning the result of the referendum have been for naught. Four years of Question Time being hijacked by Project Fear have ended without the predicted planes that could not fly to Europe, the expat pensions that would not be paid, the impossibility of getting a free trade deal and, most sinister of all, as the noble Baroness, Lady Hoey, and my noble friend Lord Robathan have pointed out, the claim that Brussels would soon bring Britain to heel.

Before the general election, I warned the Leader of the Opposition, the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, not to underestimate my right honourable friend Boris Johnson, and that he was a winner. Today, with the passing of this Bill, he has his triumph. His courage and determination have restored our sovereignty and freed Britain from rule by a foreign court, with its determination to advance the acquis. He and all of us owe a great debt to my noble friend Lord Frost and to Oliver Lewis for their determined, gruelling and successful conduct of the negotiations.

Can it be true that, as we say goodbye to the old year, the new year will mean zero tariffs, no quotas, freedom of Parliament to legislate as it pleases, MPs accountable to the electorate for our laws, an end to huge net annual payments to the Brussels bureaucracy and control of our borders and waters as a sovereign coastal state? Surely there must be a catch—something in the small print, perhaps. No. There are things I do not like, such as the arrangements for Northern Ireland, and there will undoubtedly be difficulties in transition, but the fundamental point is that our country is free again to make whatever arrangements it sees fit for our country, as the noble Lord, Lord Howarth of Newport, pointed out.

Lenin once said that liberty is

“so precious that it must be rationed”.

The President of the European Commission—and, it seems, some Members of this House—seems to believe the same is true of sovereignty. Today we take back our sovereignty. Now the challenge for the Government is to use it well in rebooting our United Kingdom and delivering the conditions necessary to enable our people to create new jobs and prosperity. The Prime Minister has been given the tools; now he must finish the job.

[The Deputy Speaker (Lord Russell of Liverpool) (CB)]

Since the noble Lords, Lord Whitty and Lord Krebs, have withdrawn, I call the noble Lord, Lord Lamont of Lerwick.

Ministerial Code

Lord Forsyth of Drumlean Excerpts

Tuesday 24th November 2020 Lords Chamber

[Lord True (Con)]

I am afraid that I cannot follow the noble and right reverend Lord. I have answered that the Prime Minister did not consider that the Home Secretary was a bully, and the noble and right reverend Lord referred to the Prime Minister’s views on the matter. I learned in Sunday school that forgiveness is a Christian quality, and I believe that we should accept the apology and move on.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con) [V]]

My Lords, given that four senior civil servants who gave evidence under oath to the Salmond inquiry have had to return with corrections to their testimony, is my noble friend sure that the Civil Service Code is fit for purpose? On the enforcement of the Ministerial Code, does he share my concern that, unlike the Prime Minister, Sir Alex Allan was able to reach his conclusions without interviewing the Home Secretary himself?

[Lord True (Con)]

My Lords, as I have said, I cannot comment on the details of the investigation or on who was involved. I think that many would be surprised by my noble friend’s hypothesis. However, I can say again that the Prime Minister has reviewed the matter, including Sir Alex Allan’s report, and does not consider that the code was breached. The Prime Minister and the Cabinet Secretary have issued a letter setting out the joint responsibilities of Ministers and Permanent Secretaries. As my noble friend implies, there is a duty on both sides to work together harmoniously. I believe that we should now all get on with the job of doing good public service.

Covid-19: Economy Update

Lord Forsyth of Drumlean Excerpts

Tuesday 27th October 2020 Lords Chamber

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con) [V]]

My Lords, does my noble friend not think that perhaps the time has come for us to have a UK-wide plan for education, employment, housing and welfare that will enable us to live with this virus? Should the Government not consider inviting the opposition parties to be part of this plan and involving local authorities in its creation and execution?

[Lord Agnew of Oulton (Con)]

My noble friend raises an important point. This country now has a more devolved structure. We have tried to keep the devolved and mayoral authorities involved in decisions at every point. We have given some £13 billion to the devolved authorities to react to the issues that we are facing. I accept that it might be easier if we could operate on an entirely national basis, but unfortunately that is not the present reality of our constitution. I assure my noble friend that we are doing everything possible to talk to the devolved authorities at all times.

Parliamentary Constituencies Bill

Lord Forsyth of Drumlean Excerpts

Committee stage & Committee: 2nd sitting (Hansard) & Committee: 2nd sitting (Hansard): House of Lords
Thursday 10th September 2020 Grand Committee

[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock (Lab Co-op) [V]]

My Lords, it is a great pleasure to follow the erudition of my noble friend, in every sense of the word, Lord Lipsey, whose amendment I support. He gave us a very good analysis of the Minister’s obsession with equal votes, pointing out that in safe seats, it does not have much of an influence. He also referred to turnouts. There is also the scandal of non-registration of many people who ought to be on the voters’ roll. There is a whole range of issues there and no one knows them better than my noble friend Lord Lipsey.

I did not want to intervene after the speech by the noble Baroness, Lady Scott of Bybrook, but I was a wee bit disappointed by her response to the last debate. I am afraid that she did not seem to understand some of the issues. I hope she will do some homework before we get to Report, because this is a very important matter. As I gather from the conversations that took place while we were adjourned, everyone agrees that this is an important issue.

We will come again to the general issue of flexibility at the next session of the Committee when we deal with my amendment in relation to local ties versus arithmetic, and the constant obsession with getting each constituency arithmetically as near as possible to the others rather than taking account of local ties. This matter and others that we have already debated are all part of the issue of getting some flexibility.

The Government seem to be obsessed with 5%. The Minister needs to explain why 5%. Why have they come across this? Why is 5% particularly the figure that they have arrived upon? I look forward to hearing the explanation. My noble friend Lord Lennie in his introduction argued the case convincingly, using some very powerful arguments, for much greater flexibility.

I look forward with even greater fascination to an explanation by the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, of why 2.5%. I cannot think of any rational explanation whatever, except that, for once, the noble Lord may want to make the Government appear reasonable by making 5% a good balance between 2.5% and 10% It would be an interesting occasion to see the noble Lord take this opportunity to make the Government seem reasonable. Usually, he is—effectively and correctly—undermining, challenging and questioning of what this awful Government are up to.

I support my noble friend Lord Lipsey’s amendment. I want more flexibility so that council boundaries can be taken account of in Scotland, as well as Scottish Parliament boundaries, natural boundaries such as rivers, estuaries, lakes and mountains, and community ties as well.

When I was thinking about arbitrary lines, I remembered how the British imperialists in Africa drew straight lines and said, “This side is Uganda and this side is Kenya”, or whatever it was, not taking any account of community or historical connections whatever. It was just appropriate so that the British masters went in and ran their parts of the Empire, and they were arbitrarily drawn. Maybe this is not quite as arbitrary as that situation, but it reminded me of it. We must take account of local interests and community, of where people shop and where their schools are; all these kinds of ties need to be taken account of.

That is why I think 10% is the right figure. It does not mean that there has to be a variation of 10%; it just gives the Boundary Commissions flexibility. The commissions need to look at the constituencies carefully, and if they do not think there needs to be a big variation then they will take account of that.

I strongly support my noble friend Lord Lipsey’s amendment, and I am looking forward with real excitement to the following speaker, my “noble friend”—I use inverted commas because he is not my noble friend politically but he is in other senses of the word—Lord Forsyth explaining how 2.5% can be in any way be sensible.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con) [V]]

I am very happy to follow the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes. I am not sure he is right about me not being supportive of the Government. I am very supportive of the Government, but it is our role in this House to hold the Government to account.

I did not speak at Second Reading. I thought it was a perfectly sensible Bill implementing a pledge from a manifesto on which the Government obtained a substantial majority, and that pledge was to update and create equal parliamentary boundaries. The Bill has been supported by the House of Commons, whose main concern this is, so I am very surprised that so many colleagues in the House of Lords want to second-guess the electorate and indeed the Commons by seeking to amend it in the way that I have listened to today and that I have read in previous debates. I am delighted that the Government have abandoned the coalition idea of reducing the number of constituencies from 650 to 600, and I very much support the Bill.

I have to say that I was hugely amused by the speeches from the noble Lords, Lord Lennie and Lord McNicol, on an earlier set of amendments, passionately arguing against what is intended here, which is to create equal constituencies. This is a measure that people have argued for since the last century; indeed, it was a central plank of the Chartist movement that they wanted 300 electoral districts consisting of equal numbers of inhabitants. I take the point that we have not yet got to the stage where the electoral roll includes all the inhabitants, but we can and should work towards that as part of a good democracy. However, for people whose heritage in the Labour Party is the Chartist movement to argue that we need something different from that when the Bill seeks to achieve it, and when the voters in the general election endorsed it so strongly, was, shall we say, interesting. The Bill seeks to introduce those equivalent constituencies.

The noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, said that he thought 10% was the right figure. I have to tell him that plus or minus 5% is a 10% variation, and plus or minus 10% is a 20% variation. These numbers that appear small are actually very large if they are plus or minus. My amendment would simply recognise that when people talk about 5% they are really talking about plus or minus 5%, and therefore it suggests that the figure should be plus or minus 2.5% to allow for a 5% variation between constituencies. The noble Lord, Lord Lennie, just dismissed that out of hand and said it would not happen. I have news for the noble Lord, Lord Lennie: I do not think any of these amendments are going to happen because this measure is what the Government won an election on proposing.

What has been central to the debate this afternoon, at Second Reading and elsewhere is that you have to choose. Either you have identifiable communities or you have equivalent votes. This Bill is about equality of seats.

Unemployment

Lord Forsyth of Drumlean Excerpts

Thursday 11th June 2020 Lords Chamber

[Lord Agnew of Oulton [V]]

The advice will be taken in the context of our overall economic recovery. Our first priorities have to be keeping this country safe and getting our businesses reopened, and it is only by having a healthy economy that we will be able to become heavily involved in the sustainable issues referred to by the noble Lord.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

My Lords, can the Minister indicate what assessment the Government have made of the number of people who will lose their jobs as a direct result of the two-metre rule? If no such assessment has been made, how is it possible for the Government to credibly continue with this policy in the light of the World Health Organization’s advice that one metre is adequate?

[Lord Agnew of Oulton [V]]

My Lords, I think that the scientific evidence is relatively clear that the risk of transmission of the disease declines exponentially with the distance between people who are interacting with one another. The argument, of course, is about the level of risk that we are prepared to take—the shorter the distance, the greater the risk; it is relatively simple. However, I support my noble friend’s concerns and I hope that the debate will continue.

House of Lords: Membership

Lord Forsyth of Drumlean Excerpts

Tuesday 5th May 2020 Lords Chamber

Asked by

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government, in the light of recent press reports, whether they are considering proposals for reform of the House of Lords based on the exclusion of those over the age of 65.

The Question was considered in a Virtual Proceeding via video call.

[The Minister of State, Cabinet Office (Lord True) (Con)]

My Lords, no.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

With respect and admiration for my noble friend the Minister, I ask: as this Question is about the future of this House, why is the Leader of the House not answering it? What have the Government done to rebut the Sunday Times report that Ministers are examining whether they could retire every Member of this House who is over the age of 65 and that we are all so old that there is no prospect of us doing our job? Will the Government name the Whitehall source responsible for this false and malicious briefing? If this is not known, will they invite the Cabinet Secretary to investigate and, if the source is identified by him, ensure that they are summarily dismissed?

[Lord True]

My Lords, there are a number of questions there which I am sure have been noted. I am sorry if my noble friend thinks it is only the second division that has come out to answer the Question, but I think the second division is adequate to put paid to a third-rate story. There is no substance in it. It is not the intention of the Government to introduce such a policy.

Economy: Update

Lord Forsyth of Drumlean Excerpts

Tuesday 28th April 2020 Lords Chamber

[Lord Agnew of Oulton]

I will try to offer some reassurance to the noble Lord. The most important thing to say is that the Chancellor has demonstrated enormous flexibility and dexterity over the weeks of the crisis. As the saying goes, if the facts change, he will change his mind to deal with the emerging situation. I am perhaps a little more optimistic than the noble Lord on the current position; even in the last 10 days we have seen increasing numbers of people going back to work as businesses have responded to social distancing and worked out simple things, such as how to rearrange offices. We are seeing this in the traffic stats of the volumes of people commuting. While I accept that there could be something of a big bang, I am hopeful that it will be more of a gradual return to work. If the noble Lord is right and we see that as an approaching problem, I am confident that the Government will react accordingly.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

My Lords, I draw attention to my interests in the register. I congratulate the Chancellor and Treasury Ministers on the welcome bounce-back scheme, which is a lifeboat to many small enterprises. It shows that we have indeed got a listening Chancellor, in that he has moved very quickly to the representations which have been made. Could my noble friend say what estimate the Government are working on in terms of the numbers of unemployed people they expect to see in the third quarter of this year and how that is related to the length of the lockdown?

[Lord Agnew of Oulton]

My Lords, I do not have that figure as I do not believe that that calculation has been made yet. It will depend very much on the timing and speed of exiting lockdown. The sooner we can exit, the less damage will be done, but we must balance against that the Prime Minister’s overriding concern for the health of the nation, not overwhelming the NHS and the nation’s morale if we were to get a bad second spike of the disease. It is a bit too early, but we will of course keep noble Lords informed of our thinking as it develops.