Central Asia

Viscount Waverley Excerpts

Monday 24th June 2013 Lords Chamber

Asked by

[Viscount Waverley]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the potential for instability in Central Asia.

[Viscount Waverley]

My Lords, in drawing attention to my non-conflicting interests as listed in the register, I beg leave to ask the Question standing in my name on the Order Paper.

[The Senior Minister of State, Department for Communities and Local Government & Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Baroness Warsi)]

My Lords, the UK is keen to work with the Governments of central Asia to promote a stable region. We do, however, assess that there are a number of challenges to stability in central Asia, in particular transnational threats, including those from Afghanistan, inter-regional issues such as ethnic tensions, and bilateral disputes. We are working with central Asian Governments on a number of initiatives funded by the tri-departmental Conflict Pool to help them meet these challenges, and we continue to monitor progress.

[Viscount Waverley]

My Lords, I thank the Minister. She appears to agree that security and stability in the strategic geopolitical priority region of central Asia, including Afghanistan, are paramount. However, trans-boundary upstream/downstream water issues and disputes, industrial pollution, population demographics, drawing on limited resources, the aftermath of the withdrawal from Afghanistan, an underlying trend of extremism, and hard drug transit along the northern routes supplying the northern and western markets, all compounded by areas of poverty and human rights concerns, are challenges and troubling indicators in this region of high potential—

[Baroness Warsi]

I know that the noble Viscount comes to these matters with great expertise and knows the region incredibly well. The Government believe that to help the central Asian states, the best thing we can do is help to strengthen their political institutions to improve governance, increase accountability and support the rule of law. The noble Viscount has asked a wide-ranging question and I shall probably have to write to him in some detail in order to answer it fully. However, I can assure him that in opening our embassy in Bishkek in 2012, for example, we are now one of only three EU member states with embassies in all five of the central Asian states, and therefore we have the reach that will enable us to deal with some of these incredibly difficult issues.

Iran: Election

Viscount Waverley Excerpts

Monday 17th June 2013 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

I can assure the noble Lord that on this matter we certainly do not intend to wade in with threats. However, I think he will accept that there are serious issues in relation to the proliferation of nuclear weapons by Iran. Those are matters that need to be discussed and Iran needs seriously to engage with them. Of course, there are also issues in relation to the human rights situation in Iran and concerns in relation to its current role in Syria. Therefore, while this is of course an opportunity, we need to be cautious about how optimistic we are.

[Viscount Waverley]

My Lords, what advice do the Government extend either to encourage or allow engagement with differing sectors or institutions in Iran? I ask this because yesterday I launched as creator and producer a 30 minute internet-based production in Farsi under the banner of www.parliamentrevealed.org, with the assistance of the Hansard Society, which sets out to explain how and why the United Kingdom Parliament operates in the way that it does.

[Baroness Warsi]

That was a great plug for what the noble Viscount does. “Parliament Revealed” is an incredibly important programme. I have seen first-hand its impact in central Asia and it is certainly to be welcomed. If other countries can take advantage of that, we would support it. We can certainly say about Dr Hassan Rouhani, who has studied in the United Kingdom, that it will not be the unfamiliarity of how our system operates that will stop us from moving forwards.

Kyrgyzstan

Viscount Waverley Excerpts

Wednesday 6th April 2011 Lords Chamber

Tabled by

[Viscount Waverley]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what is their political and security assessment of Kyrgyzstan one year on from the protest movement.

[Viscount Waverley]

My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question standing in my name on the Order Paper and, in so doing, declare that I am chairman of the British Kyrgyzstan All-Party Parliamentary Group.

[The Minister of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Lord Howell of Guildford)]

My Lords, this is a symbolic day, in that it marks the precise anniversary of the start of the unrest that toppled Kurmanbek Bakiev’s regime. The consequences of that change and the serious clashes that followed in June in the southern cities of Osh and Jalal-Abad continue to reverberate in Kyrgyzstan. It is important, therefore, that the new political structures begin to deliver real change that helps Kyrgyzstan to move on from last year’s tragic events.

[Viscount Waverley]

My Lords, the current situation in Kyrgyzstan is tense and complex, with a need for consensus and inter-ethnic reconciliation. What are the expectations from the delayed Kimmo Kiljunen commission inquiry report and how can the report be used in a constructive manner to promote understanding and reconciliation for internal and regional stability issues? Is it recognised that effective coalition governance and working for economic and social development are what will make the real difference for the people of Kyrgyzstan?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

On the second point, yes, I am sure that it is fully recognised that that is a completely accurate assessment of what is needed. The Kimmo Kiljunen report is not due until next month—I think that there is a problem with translation aspects. Obviously, we very much hope that, as it looks back to the horrors of the multiple deaths of the past, it will be able to contribute to reconciliation in future, but we have not yet seen it.

Tunisia

Viscount Waverley Excerpts

Monday 17th January 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

My noble friend offers some very wise and comprehensive comments on the overall situation. This is a lesson. We live in a much more transparent and e-enabled age, with television programmes in their multiple dozens, such as Al-Jazeera and others, fantastic media influence, fantastic rapid communication through the internet, e-mails or the varieties of web operation that we are beginning to know so well, and of course the mobile telephone. All these influence the transmission of both truth and rumour into situations such as the one in Tunis, which can become very volatile very quickly. The lessons should not be lost on others who seek to rule by failing to be transparent and failing to transmit all the knowledge and accountability that they should to their citizens. My noble friend has absolutely hit the nail on the head on that matter. He was kind enough to recognise the problem that the new Government have been formed since my honourable friend spoke in the other place. Now that they have been formed, we are very anxious to see that they go forward in a really constructive and balanced way, and we will do everything, through our embassy, our contacts and our colleagues in the European Union, to encourage that process.

[Viscount Waverley]

My Lords, what if there is a repetition of a party such as Islamic Salvation Front winning the national elections, as happened in Algeria 1992? Will the Government promote an EU line to allow any obvious winner to let be? Is there any suggestion that Tunisia’s neighbours, such as Libya, Algeria and Egypt, will intervene to keep a form of status quo?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

The noble Lord will understand that those are highly hypothetical questions. The Algerian situation of 19 years ago is one from which we should draw lessons, and so should the countries of the area. The neighbouring countries are, as we are, watching closely to see how this pattern will develop. However, these are very early days. One wants this newly formed Government to command confidence, get violence off the streets and ensure that non-democratic forces, and those that are inclined to violence, stay in and are kept under control. Then we will see what the broader implications are. I personally hope that the broader implications to the wider world are simply of the kind mentioned by my noble friend a moment ago, whereby democracy, transparency and responsibility to citizens are always wise if you want to stay in power.

Arctic Ice Cap

Viscount Waverley Excerpts

Monday 6th December 2010 Lords Chamber

[Viscount Waverley]

My Lords, the Arctic has a magical attraction posing special physical challenges—remoteness, ice and extreme temperatures, with long periods of darkness. But as the region warms in the decades to come, the ice cap will gradually melt and its ecosystems change. Technology will improve and commercial opportunities will present shorter shipping routes, fishing grounds, new destinations for commercial tourism, and new oil and gas development opportunities. The United States Geological Survey 2008, for example, has estimated the potential magnitude of the resources in the Arctic as containing, as we have already heard, 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,700 TCF of gas and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids, all equating to some 10 years of current global oil and gas demand.

A framework for the staged implementation of performance-based standards is required therefore to govern Arctic offshore oil and gas exploration, development, production and transportation, which must take into consideration the special challenges of the Arctic environment, and so enable compliance integrated with regulatory arrangements. Therefore, co-operation between industry, regulators and other stakeholders is a fundamental.

The central question that comes to my mind is, “How is a global treasure to be developed in a manner which provides, yet preserves?”. International and national interest in mitigating and adapting to future changes to make responsible development happen has led to calls from Arctic and non-Arctic nations to anticipate and assess the new levels of activity to the region. Effective governance through Arctic-specific international standards, and adapted national regulations and standards, is critical in managing and mitigating risks and securing safe, reliable and environmentally responsible development. Many commentators choose to view the changes in the Arctic in terms of security; namely, energy security, environmental security and human security.

If the Arctic is to be developed, and there is no possibility of this not happening, it is essential that international co-operation on science, planning, inclusive engagement, standards of operation and safety is ensured. Have we got to the stage that world players, Governments and private sector alike have the experience and technology to develop in a manner that causes no future long-term regret? Have we learnt from the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, including what went wrong and what will be done to prevent a similar occurrence? A constant concern is whether sufficient emphasis will be placed on addressing the wishes and needs of the Arctic’s 4 million inhabitants. The Arctic is not about taking short-cuts and the residents of the region should be brought on board at an early stage of planning.

In 2009, the Aspen Commission on Arctic Climate Change of the Aspen Institute identified initial principles of Arctic governance as forming the foundation and the standards by which future governance and sustainable management of human activities in the Arctic marine environment should be measured. Building on those principles, the Aspen commission is in the throes of publishing its final report, which is expected to report its recommendations in January 2011.

I expect a number of points to emerge, the most important of which is to ensure the strengthening of the Arctic Council to allow it to follow through on all recommendations, including those of the Aspen Institute. Other points I expect include, first, that marine spatial planning should be the innovative tool to implement and measure success over time of ecosystem-based management across sectors and large marine ecosystems. It should be noted, however, that the starting point of such a process should be the formulation of clear development objectives. Secondly, a new Arctic marine conservation sustainable development plan should be called for and should recognise that the region’s challenges are not limited to national concerns. Launching such an effort would require high-level ministerial engagement, if not that of the heads of state of Arctic Governments. And thirdly, an Arctic science programme should be implemented and integrated as part of an Arctic marine conservation sustainable development plan, using an open-source information network. The Arctic high seas, for example, should be designated as a science reserve to signal a new level and scope of international co-operation and collaboration. A specific plan should be developed to gather the scientific information urgently needed to make informed decisions about the region’s future.

A real opportunity exists for a new era of international co-operation in the Arctic, allowing for objective and balanced debate to defuse and pave the way for the development of this global treasure. The noble Lord, Lord Jay, has played his part by raising the critical need for debate at this early stage. He should be thanked.

Central Asia and South Caucasus

Viscount Waverley Excerpts

Tuesday 30th November 2010 Grand Committee

Asked by

[Viscount Waverley]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what are their current priorities as they take forward their relationship with the individual countries of central Asia and south Caucasus.

[Viscount Waverley]

My Lords, long before the advent of oil as a prize, mystery and a heightened realisation of its impending post-independence importance first drew me to Asia and the south Caucasus. I now count with pleasure many friends from the region. I declare at this stage that I am the chairman of five central Asian APPGs, serve on the advisory council at Asia House of the Asia and South Caucasus Association, am vice-chair of the British-Azerbaijan interaction group and am associated with a global organisation that is active in infrastructure construction projects.

Central Asia and the south Caucasus have a mystical resonance in the British imagination, whether through the writings of the orientalists or the biographers of the Great Game. The colonial withdrawal and Soviet takeover of the region led to a steady decline in what was once a glorious tradition of scholarship and trade, as access to the region became restricted. The dissolution of the Soviet Union and liberalisation in China and Mongolia removed barriers to access to central and inner Asia, but the UK business and academic community is only now turning concerted effort to a region that we all once knew well, although there are already substantial British successes.

Thus, starting anew, I intend to draw attention to and elevate the profile of a region that has been substantially neglected in UK foreign policy in recent years but which has become greatly relevant both on the global political stage and to regional stability. The prospective importance of this area, politically, economically and strategically, can scarcely be over- estimated. We must work hard to secure interests such as counterterrorism, energy security, democratisation and the rule of law. No longer landlocked thanks to a new innovative pipeline grid, a new golden triangle of trans-Caspian oil and gas resources is emerging between Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan that could transform the regional economic potential for central Asia and the south Caucasus.

These countries are characterised by predominantly moderate and secular Governments who have proved to be reliable partners and rational actors on key issues. They remain favourably inclined towards the UK and recognise that we have a social, economic and political culture which they wish to partner. Indeed, these nations look to us as trusted brokers. We have the opportunity to act now to help secure their futures, as well as our national interests, amid the powerful spheres of influence exerted by adjacent nations.

The task is incumbent on us to listen intelligently to, to welcome and to benefit from these new voices at the table of nations. The need for a balanced foreign policy that accommodates a geopolitical approach cannot be overlooked. Afghanistan is part of the central Asian nexus and has natural affinities with that area to counterbalance external influences. Regional countries understand the culture of the ethnic groups in Afghanistan, and the essential economic development of Afghanistan will filter down from the north. I envisage the region becoming the rock around which an enduring peace can be built. The region possesses abundant agricultural, mineral and energy resources, including great potential for renewable energy, including hydropower and solar. It contains all the necessary ingredients for industrial growth, and has a widely educated workforce.

The scientific potential is also enormous. Kazakhstan’s Baikonur Cosmodrome, which is shared with Russia, remains the world’s first and largest space launch facility, and services global commercial satellites and shuttles to the International Space Station. It bears witness to considerable technological sophistication. However, industry, such as the Soviet cotton monoculture, requires vision and assistance in the continued transition from a command economy to market mechanisms that create jobs, exports and opportunities for UK partnerships.

Although this year saw a period of economic stagnation, it is predicted that these countries will experience strong economic expansion in 2011, with real GDP growth of 5 to 9 per cent for a combined regional population of 77 million and a total GDP of $400 billion. Economic engines, such as Azerbaijan, which was third in global GDP growth last year, and Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, which have new Caspian oil and gas field production in the years ahead, position the region for solid growth, development and diversification. This will be fuelled by relatively high global commodity prices and stronger domestic demand.

The hydrocarbons sector is the backbone of the largest economies, but structural challenges undermine the full development of the natural resources sector. The lack of local technical skills and limited financial capacity to develop the energy sector make the search for foreign investors a priority, while corruption remains a disincentive to foreign investors. Regional interests should not fall into the trap of a single-commodity economy, however. There are real opportunities in the form of energy co-operation beyond hydrocarbons, and the potential for sustainable partnerships for western interests is immense.

Events of global relevance are also now coming from the region. Importantly, this year, Kazakhstan has been chairman of the OSCE. The priorities of Afghanistan and Nagorno-Karabakh, together with advancing dialogue on European security through the Corfu process, and the political, military and economic dimensions, go together with a theme of promoting interethnic and religious tolerance. I wish that country well in living up to the high expectations that it is anticipated will come from the upcoming summit in Astana.

Uzbekistan's presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, comprising most of central Asia with China and Russia, has achieved considerable results in developing international contacts and the legal framework, as well as in implementing initiatives to strengthen security and stability and to combat terrorism, extremism and separatism. Importantly, President Karimov's speech to the Oliy Majlis on 12 November on the concept of the deepening of democratic reforms and the formation of civil society in Uzbekistan was a welcome milestone and should stimulate progress in the region. However, despite periods of continuing unrest in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, the Kyrgyz Government recently held their first parliamentary elections, and both countries show signs of increased stability. The militant Fergana Valley tri-state region is, however, a concern.

The countries of the southern Caucasus, anchored by Baku and its management of key pipelines, serve as a gateway to central Asia and are evolving into a dynamic Eurasian artery of economic growth and development. Azerbaijan and Georgia, as well as Armenia, sit in a region that has vast potential. Transport corridors will not only link central Asian and south Caucasus countries with wider regional continental trade and transport networks, but will strengthen the sovereignty of the regional states and facilitate the opening of their political and economic systems.

Azerbaijan's strategic location and stability are vital to the West. The United Kingdom is the largest foreign direct investor in Azerbaijan's economy, and bilateral trade has doubled in the past year alone. Besides long-term energy co-operation, over the past few years bilateral ties have broadened into new areas such as finance, infrastructure projects, education and culture. For all these reasons and more, I believe it is essential for the UK to take a leading role in Europe to push forward relationships on political, economic and strategic fronts and to seek to balance the interests of Russia, the US and China in the multivector policies of the central Asian and south Caucasus states.

What ideas do we have for regional policy? The fragile nascent political systems should be encouraged to progress towards the growth of democratic and anti-authoritarian regimes. However, we will be more successful if we take a long-term view of reform. Our own democracy is an evolutionary process, and we should be seen as a partner, not a preacher. However, given the United Kingdom's professionalism and experience, I think we should mould a regional policy around strengthening the sovereignty of those states and facilitating the development of their political and economic systems. The democratisation of state power and governance, ensuring freedom of choice and the development of electoral legislation, reforming the judicial and legal systems and developing civil society are all areas in which we could usefully engage in the spirit of partnership and co-operation. This would strengthen the parallel-to-trade objectives in advocating the benefits of good governance, transparency and accountability, freedom of the press and human rights standards. In conclusion, engagement is essential. The central Asian and south Caucasus states have now completed their transition stage from independence. Twenty years on it is now a new game and a positive one in a region that should be one of our priority strategic areas. I thank the Minister and all those who are contributing today. In addition, through the Minister if he will allow me, I pay a special tribute to all the excellent London-based officials, together with his ambassadors in post.

Tajikistan

Viscount Waverley Excerpts

Wednesday 17th November 2010 Lords Chamber

Asked By

[Viscount Waverley]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what are their current priorities as they take forward their relationship with Tajikistan.

[Viscount Waverley]

My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question standing in my name on the Order Paper. In doing so, I declare interests as serving on the advisory board of the Central Asia and South Caucasus Association at Asia House and as chairman of the British Tajikistan All-Party Parliamentary Group.

[The Minister of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Lord Howell of Guildford)]

My Lords, we value our relationship with Tajikistan and welcome recent high-level exchanges with the Tajik Government. Our priorities are to encourage democratic and other reforms that will help to underpin stability in Tajikistan and the region. We also believe that there is benefit for both sides in working more closely on issues relating to Afghanistan. Parliamentary links form an important part of our efforts to strengthen the bilateral relationship and I pay tribute to the noble Lord for the work that he does to that end.

[Viscount Waverley]

I thank the Minister very much for that response. The willingness of the United Kingdom to engage more would be appreciated by Tajikistan and so deepen the bilateral relationship. I believe that there are multiple reasons for doing so. Is the Minister aware that they include fully understanding the culture of the Tajik ethnic north of Afghanistan, the potential for extremism to destabilise internally and so reach into central Asia, the fact that this is a major drug route with 1,500 kilometres of open border with Afghanistan and, finally, economic and other sector opportunities for mutual co-operation and benefit?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

I thank the noble Viscount for his constructive question. I am aware of the points that he raises. He reminds your Lordships that there is a long border between Tajikistan and Afghanistan and that many Tajik people live in north Afghanistan and play a relevant, decisive and, we hope, fully helpful part in seeking to pacify that country and meet our priorities there. He makes valuable points. Also relevant are his references to the narcotics problem, some of the cross-border trade that has been going on and some of the difficulties with the Uzbek border of the country as well.

Diplomacy

Viscount Waverley Excerpts

Thursday 11th November 2010 Lords Chamber

[Viscount Waverley]

My Lords, I am grateful for the suggestion that the Diplomatic Service be open to new ideas. While there is apprehension about the cuts, active diplomacy in certain areas can deliver mechanisms to achieve results with less. The way forward might be to recognise that the role of government in bilateral relations, and by extension diplomatic endeavours, should be to create the environment to allow all the sectors that make up those relations to thrive, and that the United Kingdom is essentially a private sector-driven economy and that it is not the role of government to deliver for the private sector a better structured public sector/private sector partnership, whether for the benefit of trade or for the myriad other benefits that make up relationships.

Much of this type of initiative could be self-funding, thereby freeing government financial resources. Has a full review taken place to consider how non-critical outsourcing could play a role in the diplomatic world? Consular activities have always seemed to be a natural candidate. The parallel-to-trade objectives of advocating the benefits of democratic principles—good governance, transparency and accountability, freedom of the press and human rights standards—could all be addressed in a similar manner by appropriate specialists in order to make diplomacy effective.

Resourcing diplomacy in the context of today's debate must also be about bolstering abstract diplomacy with concrete and figurative measures. Leaving aside the complexities of whether the ECGD could be privatised, for trade diplomacy to be successful three components must converge. The first is on-the-ground preparation by ambassadors and their staff. The second is the fullest engagement, at Secretary of State level and above, regularly to lead missions overseas and to leave more diary space for meeting incoming leaders in London. The third component—I declare an interest as I am on the advisory board of the newly formed Central Asia and South Caucasus Association at Asia House—is the formulation of a well-defined partnership between the UK's public and private sectors, made up of trade and industry councils and umbrella self-funding representative organisations. This structure could create cost savings and replace anything other than support in strategic emerging markets. The money saved could be used to resource more effectively overseas posts’ commercial endeavours, with the remainder moved over to the general Foreign Office budget.

I congratulate the Prime Minister on leading two recent successful missions to China and India. I also welcome the Foreign Secretary's initiation of policy reviews of relations with priority strategic countries such as Brazil and Turkey. However, these endeavours need to be replicated many times over. Leaders such as Chancellor Merkel and President Sarkozy regularly travel around the globe signing bilateral trade MOUs and cutting megadeals in out of the way places. Secretary of State Clinton has even been supporting American interests in Papua New Guinea, where I happened to be this week. It is a country of crucial strategic regional importance to the UK, but our diplomatic financial resource is close to zero.

My concluding thought is that the Minister might wish to look at more speedily matching to requirements the qualifications of FCO London-based staff. Diplomats often find themselves in the corporate pool on their return from overseas postings. This human resource should be put to more immediate use and not be left to stagnate.

Russia

Viscount Waverley Excerpts

Monday 26th July 2010 Lords Chamber

Tabled by

[Viscount Waverley]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what steps they are taking to improve diplomatic relations and dialogue with Russia.

[Lord Kilclooney]

My Lords, in the absence of the noble Viscount, Lord Waverley, and at his request, I beg leave to ask the Question standing in his name on the Order Paper.

Nuclear Posture Review

Viscount Waverley Excerpts

Monday 28th June 2010 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

I agree with the noble Baroness that this is an important part of the developments. The review conclusions were very encouraging—they were not all-embracing, but certainly took us some steps forward. I will note what the noble Baroness said.

[Viscount Waverley]

My Lords, the United States is making its posture a legislatively mandated review. Given the sensitivity of the subject, would it not be appropriate to do so in the United Kingdom in line with our consideration of UK future declarations of war?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

I am not quite sure that this relates directly to what we are discussing at the moment, but I note what the noble Viscount said.