OBR Forecasts Debate

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Department: HM Treasury

OBR Forecasts

Baroness Penn Excerpts
Monday 1st December 2025

(1 day, 6 hours ago)

Lords Chamber
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Lord Livermore Portrait Lord Livermore (Lab)
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I am grateful for that question. The noble and right reverend Lord quite rightly says that the Chancellor was very clear that the productivity review would mean lower tax receipts, and the OBR confirmed that they are £16 billion lower. The OBR’s productivity review lays bare the economic consequences of the past 14 years. The OBR looked back at the productivity performance of the previous decade and concluded that austerity, Brexit and the pandemic have weakened the economy by far more than previously thought. That has an impact on the public finances and growth for the remainder of the forecast period.

Baroness Penn Portrait Baroness Penn (Con)
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My Lords, can the Minister tell the House why the increase to forecast tax receipts as a result of higher forecast inflation and greater taxes on employment was the only information not made public in advance of the Budget?

Lord Livermore Portrait Lord Livermore (Lab)
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The Chancellor was not going to set out the entire Budget in advance. She set out the Budget on Budget Day. As I have said before, what she did before the Budget and at the time of the Budget were entirely consistent. She set out her priorities and then delivered on them. She said that if the productivity review were to lead to a downgrade in productivity, it would mean lower tax receipts, and it did. The Chancellor said that she intended to build more headroom, and she did. She said in the summer that policy choices would need to be paid for, and she paid for them. The Chancellor was also clear that challenging decisions would need to be taken on tax, and she took several challenging decisions on tax, including freezing thresholds for a further three years.