EU Membership Referendum: Impact on the UK

Gregory Campbell Excerpts

Wednesday 2nd September 2026 Westminster Hall

[Pete Wishart]

I am grateful to my hon. Friend because he brings us right up to date in the debate about Brexit. I listened carefully to the Prime Minister yesterday and what he had to say about European Union membership. I want to come on to that because we are at an important juncture. We have new opportunities to go forward, and I hope that this new Labour UK Government make the right choice. I will come to that, so I ask my hon. Friend for his patience, which I know he will be able to supply me with.

I want to get back to the economics. It is now estimated that GDP is anything between 2% and 8% lower than if we had remained in the European Union. The Office for Budget Responsibility suggests a 4% reduction in productivity, and Goldman Sachs estimates that the UK economy is around 6% smaller than it would otherwise have been. I want to be clear: that does not mean that Britain suddenly became 8% poorer on the morning of 24 June 2016. Of course, Britain continued to grow, and we have experienced some economic growth. The argument is that the UK has grown less than it otherwise would have done. Brexit was never going to be a spectacular economic crash. If anything, it is more insidious than that. Brexit is more akin to a slow puncture. The economy keeps growing, the car keeps moving forward, but the driving gets tougher as we negotiate in a harsher environment.

[Mr Gregory Campbell (East Londonderry) (DUP)]

On the economy, does the hon. Gentleman remember, as I do, the weeks before the referendum, when we were told amid all the scaremongering that if we voted to leave, house prices would decline by 28%? They did not. We were also told that unemployment would rise, but it did not. Does he recall those scaremongering headlines?

[Pete Wishart]

Indeed I do. They were almost as ridiculous as the extraordinary claims that were made about what would happen if we left the European Union, from the £350 million saved per week to the claims about bendy bananas and sausages. They were absurd, and the hon. Gentleman is right that it was a poor debate, but he cannot disagree with the evidence from the House of Commons Library and all the major financial institutions that Brexit has been an economic disaster. I do not think anybody could possibly disagree with that basic statement.

I will come on to trade, because that is equally important. The OBR assumes that Brexit will ultimately reduce UK imports and exports by around 15% relative to the scenario had we remained in the European Union. Again, that does not mean that our exports have literally fallen by 15%, but the additional barriers created by Brexit mean we trade less than we otherwise would have done.

That matters because the European Union is still by far our largest trading partner. In 2025, the EU accounted for 41% of our exports of goods and services and around half of our imports. So much for the idea that we would effortlessly turn our back on Europe and replace all that trade with new deals around the world. Yes, of course, there have been useful, good trade deals with the likes of New Zealand, Australia and India. They have benefits, but they barely touch the sides of the trade relationship we already had with the European Union.

--- Later in debate ---

[Jim Shannon (Strangford) (DUP)]

It is a pleasure to serve under your chairship, Ms Butler. I thank the hon. Gentleman for Perth and Kinross-shire (Pete Wishart) for securing this debate. He and I know that we will not agree on this subject, but we are good friends and Gaelic cousins. I appreciate his point of view; my point of view will be very different.

Ten years ago, the people of the United Kingdom made a historic sovereign decision to leave the European Union. They voted to take back control of our laws, borders and cash, but as a proud Unionist and staunch Brexiteer, I stand here to declare that the impact of the referendum is uncertain because the job is not yet finished. There is still work to be done.

I will outline some of the issues in Northern Ireland. The Windsor framework does not fix the problem; it institutionalises it. It leaves a border in the Irish sea, dividing us from our biggest market and tearing at the economic and constitutional fabric of our country. How can we say we have fully left the EU when Northern Ireland is still subject to laws that it has no say in making and that are judged by a foreign court? How can we say that we have taken back control when our hard-working farmers face losing half their vital veterinary medicines simply because Brussels dictates what can and cannot cross the Irish sea? That is a fundamental denial of democracy.

How can we talk about the result of the vote when it is a constitutional outrage that our own Government’s ability to support British businesses in Northern Ireland is legally handcuffed by European competition courts through a ban on state aid? How can we talk about the vote and the UK when every time a consumer in my Strangford constituency picks up a pint of milk stamped with “Not for the EU” they are looking at a badge of foreign interference in our internal UK market?

True Brexit means Brexit for the whole of the United Kingdom, not just for the mainland of Great Britain. We have been trapped in a dynamic alignment. If the mainland innovates and cuts red tape, Northern Ireland is legally forbidden from joining them because we are chained to the EU customs code. That is not the best of both worlds; it is economic partition.

[Mr Gregory Campbell]

Does my hon. Friend agree that a classic example of that, which we had some time ago, was when companies selling plants and seeds in Great Britain could not supply them to Northern Ireland, but people could buy them here and take them over on a plane? That was all down to the Windsor framework and the subsequent hash that Governments have made of the Brexit vote.

[Jim Shannon]

I absolutely agree. I was going to come on to that issue, but he has done it for me so I will leave it at that.

The hon. Member for Perth and Kinross-shire is a friend of mine, but we fundamentally cannot agree on this issue. I believe in accepting a democratic vote, not ignoring it. When we believe that we know better than the people, it is no longer a democracy; it is a dictatorship. Hon. Members are allowed to hate that result, but they are not allowed to overrule it without due process. We need to finish the job that the people voted for in 2016. That means removing the Windsor framework, stripping away the remaining vestiges of EU interference and fully restoring the internal market of the United Kingdom.

We must solidify our precious Union. We are undeniably stronger together; I am sure my friends in the SNP and Plaid Cymru will take note of that. Our economic, cultural and political bonds are what makes this nation great. Our focus must be on strengthening the ties between Belfast, Edinburgh, Cardiff and London, not managing an artificial barrier forced on us by Brussels. Let us stand firm, deliver on the full promise of 2016 and secure a truly United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland for generations to come. We are always better together.