Welfare Expenditure

Lord Balfe Excerpts

Thursday 15th October 2026 Lords Chamber

Asked by

[Lord Balfe]

To ask His Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast that welfare expenditure will reach £407 billion by 2030–31.

[The Minister of State, Department for Work and Pensions (Baroness Sherlock) (Lab)]

My Lords, the Budget on 28 October will set out the latest forecast on government spending, including social security. This Government are prioritising welfare reform, putting work and opportunity at the centre. Our system should support people to get into work and get on in work, while ensuring that those who cannot work get the support they need. We have already introduced significant reforms through the Universal Credit Act 2025 and invested in employment support, while the Timms review and the Milburn review are considering further changes to ensure that the system is sustainable and focused on helping people who can work get into employment.

[Lord Balfe (Con)]

I thank the Minister for her reply. This is not a problem of one party, but the fact of the matter is that over the last 15 years, welfare expenditure seems to have run completely out of control. It is now increasing at a rate that, frankly, is not affordable in the long run. Will the Government try to cut back on expenditure and find ways of getting people off benefits rather than piling more and more people on to benefits?

[Baroness Sherlock (Lab)]

My Lords, the noble Lord and I agree on one thing, which is that we have a shared objective—that all those who can work, should work. The job of the state is to make that possible, to give them the support they need and to help them get into jobs, and that is exactly what we are doing. We are investing £2.5 billion in the youth guarantee and expanding the growth and skills levy. We have already rebalanced universal credit to make sure that the incentives are in the right place, so that people are moving into work and are better off in work. We are overhauling jobcentres so that they are places where you go to sign up for work. We are investing in personalised work programmes for those who have health and skills challenges. I absolutely agree with the noble Lord, and that is exactly what this Government are doing.