Fortifying the Fiscal Framework (Economic Affairs Committee Report)

Lord Pitt-Watson Excerpts

Tuesday 3rd November 2026 Grand Committee

[The Parliamentary Secretary, HM Treasury (Lord Pitt-Watson) (Lab)]

My Lords, it is a pleasure to respond to this debate on the Economic Affairs Committee’s report on the fiscal framework, and to do so alongside so many distinguished noble Lords: to have the noble Lords, Lord Burns and Lord Macpherson, talking at this debate, with their experience, is a real treat. I thank all noble Lords for their thoughtful and considered contributions during today’s debate and congratulate the Economic Affairs Committee on the report.

In particular, I thank the committee’s first chair, my noble friend Lord Wood of Anfield, and its current chair, my noble friend Lord Liddle for his opening speech and chairmanship. I also thank members of the committee, past and present, and the committee staff for producing the report. It raises important questions about fiscal rules, the role of the Office for Budget Responsibility and the long-term sustainability of the public finances. Along with officials across the Treasury, I have studied the findings and look forward to continuing to work with the committee in my role as Lords Treasury Minister.

Indeed, I have studied the report more often than noble Lords might imagine, because when I was appointed as a Minister in the summer, I asked civil servants to put together a package of documents which they thought would be particularly informative, including on the fiscal rules. That the committee’s report was among that bundle is testament to the seriousness in which it is held.

Before I address the substance of the report, I should say a few words about the wider economic context and the Budget that took place last week, since it has been raised a number of times. I do not want to address the particular political points that have been made. If we want to look at the graph of when the debt of this country was built up and map that against the administration, we can. If we want to look at the time when Britain had to start paying a premium, we can do that too. I set that aside.

I would like to talk about the Budget, set, of course, against the backdrop of global economic storms. The Chancellor has made it clear that we cannot wish those storms away. Indeed, we must set a course to steer through them. That is why both the Prime Minister and the Chancellor have been clear that fiscal responsibility will underwrite every promise that the Government make. In this Budget, we met our fiscal rules. For the first time since 2022, we are meeting fiscal rules which are assessed in the third year of the forecast, with borrowing falling across the Parliament.

Despite the warning from forecasters that our economy would slow down, Britain has shown real resilience. The OBR has upgraded the UK’s growth forecast for this year to 1.2%. One swallow does not make a summer but, in the first part of this year, we were at the top of the G7. Productivity was up at 2.2% last year, compared with an average growth rate of 0.5% between 2015 and 2024. Whole economy investment and business investment have grown more in this Parliament so far than they did in the entirety of the last one.

Nevertheless, debt and the deficit are big and considerable issues. People have said that there is not enough will or evidence that the debt and deficit are being kept under control, but I note that earlier this month the IMF forecasted that our deficit would be the lowest in the G7 by 2029. It also said that the UK now “stands out” as a country where

“action to reduce the debt and deficit has been taken decisively”.

I know that concerns have been raised about this, quite rightly. It is an important thing to be thinking about but, in saying that this is just a fantasy hockey stick, the noble Lord, Londesborough, is in disagreement with Kristalina Georgieva. That is certainly not to claim that everything is rosy, but it shows that this Government take fiscal discipline seriously. Indeed, we believe that it is a sine qua non for steering through these difficult times.

Let me return to the report, where I think we find a considerable degree of consensus. First, we all believe that fiscal rules are important. I think even my noble friend Lord Sikka would think they are important, although he would want a social report on their effect. The report suggests some reform. It covers five areas: the control of debt and whether a new debt rule is required; the adequacy of headroom; fiscal rules and whether new ones are needed and how they should be agreed; fiscal forecasting and the critical independence of the OBR; and long-term sustainability. Let me try to take each of those in turn, beginning with debt.

As I have already set out, this Government met the fiscal rules at the Budget last week and, for the first time for the Government, they were assessed in the third year of the forecast. The second fiscal rule, the investment rule, ensures that government debt, defined as public sector net financial liabilities—when I got this job I discovered that this is known as “persnuffle”—must be falling as a percentage of the GDP. We are meeting that rule with a headroom of £24 billion in 2029-30, so that will be lower at the end of the forecast than now.

I accept that a number of noble Lords, starting with the noble Lord, Lord Redwood, asked: is this not just always “jam tomorrow”, and therefore do we not need something that tightens the fiscal rule? Indeed, the committee’s report proposes that the Government should set out an additional debt target that would show cumulative performance over three years. I understand that, but the Government’s position is that the design of the fiscal rules needs to strike an appropriate balance between maintaining a clear, medium-term anchor and allowing near-term adjustments in response to changing economic conditions before the three-year target. Similarly, the committee’s report raises concerns that debt can rise while the fiscal rule is still met. However, targeting a reduction allows space to respond to near-term shocks and return debt to a sustainable path.

To be clear, all the statistics and measures that we are looking at are fully transparent. From the independent record, outsiders in particular, such as this committee, can see how debt is evolving over time. These are important numbers, and it is appropriate that the Government are questioned on them, but it is another, bigger step to say that a new fiscal rule therefore needs to be introduced. The fiscal rules just set a minimum target, and the OBR forecast shows that debt stabilises in 2008-09 before falling in the following year.

That is supported by the fact that the level of borrowing falls across the forecast to 1.8% of GDP by the end of the forecast, after having already fallen by 0.7% of GDP last year. This may not be St Augustine—we are not entirely holy yet—but it feels as if things are happening here. The noble Lord, Lord Liddle, and others said that perhaps it is possible to game the fiscal rules that we have, but the IMF’s independent and serious international observers have noted that our consolidation plans, underpinned by our rules, stand out compared to our peers. The UK is one country where action to reduce debt and deficit has been taken decisively. So it is not clear to me that a new debt rule is needed, although the figure may be an important one to look at.

With regard to the fiscal rules, the committee’s report makes three further recommendations. The first relates to the frequency of changes in the fiscal rules, the second argues for fuller consultation before fiscal rule changes are made, and the third calls for an additional fixed rule rather than using the rolling rules alone.

First, I think we have consensus on the frequency of changes. It has been pointed out that fiscal rules in the past have often had a short lifetime, but we have stuck to the rules for three Budgets and there are no plans to change them.

On the second recommendation, there is some scepticism that consultation on the rules would be done better through a broad political grouping. Rather, it is right that the fiscal rules are set by the Chancellor in line with the Government’s priorities and fiscal strategy, consistent with manifesto promises. The Government’s economic priorities and fiscal strategy are set out in the manifesto before a general election. However, when it comes to consultation, of course the Government regularly engage relevant stakeholders and experts, as well as those from other countries. Fiscal rules were legislated through the Charter for Budget Responsibility, providing a full opportunity for debate and scrutiny.

On the third issue of rolling and fixed rules, as noble Lords will be aware, from this fiscal year the fiscal rules target the third year of the forecast, which binds near-term decisions while still providing some space for macroeconomic adjustment. It also links to the three-year spending plans of government departments. We therefore believe that rolling rules provide the Government with the flexibility to respond appropriately to adverse shocks in the near term and allow time for public finances to recover, while maintaining a clear medium-term anchor. With a fixed rule, as the target grows nearer, adjustments to in-year savings or tax rises become more challenging and potentially economically damaging. A rolling target instead provides a medium-term anchor to support stability and sustainable public finances.

I turn to headroom, which is needed to absorb the impact of economic shocks. This is what a buffer is for: to be used when needed before being rebuilt when conditions allow. The conflict in the Middle East has driven up borrowing costs all around the world; for the UK, this is broadly in line with the G7 average. All G7 countries have seen borrowing costs rise. It is our forecast that costs will be about £14 billion a year in extra government debt interest. At the last Budget in 2025, the headroom was, £21.7 million. It is now £15 billion for 2029-30, before rising to £22 million in 2030-31, so some of the increase in borrowing costs has been absorbed in the Budget. We feel that is the right level, as a matter of both contingency and challenge, to make sure that the Government stick to their fiscal consolidation.

As regards forecasts and the OBR, the report and the Government are in entire agreement as to the importance of the OBR and the critical role it plays. As the noble Lord, Lord Burns, said, it is the Government who set the rules and the procedures, but the OBR is an independent adjudicator on what those plans look like. The committee’s report argues that requiring two OBR forecasts a year creates unnecessary policy volatility. The UK has a long-standing practice of having two official forecasts per year. This predates the OBR, and we value the OBR’s role in ensuring economic and fiscal transparency. It will continue to publish two forecasts a year, in line with best practice internationally. In line with the recommendation made by the IMF, the OBR now assesses the fiscal rules only once per year, in the Budget. This aims to create a more predictable framework, strengthen stability and give business and households certainty about the future.

I turn to the question of a long-term fiscal sustainability. The OBR’s recent Fiscal Risks and Sustainability report confirms the need to boost growth and maintain sustainable public finances. That is what the Government are committed to doing. It also shows—I think some of the figures have been quoted—that if there were no change from the assumptions made today then, over a long period of time, debt goes very high indeed. The report says that that is a path to unsustainable debt levels. However, one can overlook the Government taking action to think about this, to bring down borrowing over the long term, including, for example, announcing the electric vehicle excise duty, which is necessary to replace taxes on petrol. I think that might have been part of the projections that noble Lords were looking at. We mentioned that, from April 2030, the Government will adjust the triple lock, which will have a big effect on what the long-term future looks like. That reform ensures that the state pension is sustainable, protecting pensioners today and today’s workers when they are pensioners. The observations of the committee are understood, but these actions show that they have been taken on board by the Government.

The charter for Budget responsibility, which this Government updated to reform the fiscal framework, ensures that fiscal sustainability will remain central to the Treasury’s objectives for fiscal policy. We will continue to consider a wide range of metrics to inform a full assessment of the sustainability of public finances. As a result of our 2024 reforms, the OBR will also continue to report on the long-term impact of capital investment and government policies in its forecasts. But fiscal stability is an ongoing process. Constructive criticism is welcome; indeed, it was part of the briefing for a new Minister in the Treasury.

I once again sincerely thank the Economic Affairs Committee for its work on this important report. The Government share the committee’s overriding commitment to fiscal responsibility and to ensuring that the fiscal framework continues to operate effectively. The challenges to the fiscal outlook set out by the OBR last week demonstrate why this position is necessary, because it is only by delivering sustainable public finances that we can maintain resilience in the face of global shocks. I look forward to continuing to engage with the committee as we take forward the measures in this Budget, including through the upcoming 10-year plan and the spending review.