Amendment of the Law

Sajid Javid Excerpts

Wednesday 23rd March 2011 Commons Chamber

[Sammy Wilson]

That is clearly not what the Chancellor intends, because he hopes to raise £1.4 billion. If the hon. Gentleman is saying that this is all about changing behaviour so that firms do not get the money, there is an immediate hole in the figures the Chancellor is presenting to the House today. I suspect that it is not all about that at all, but is another way of raising tax. What appears on the surface to be a good supply-side measure will be more than offset by some of the other measures undertaken. Of course, the kinds of firms that are most likely to be hit by this are the very firms that the Chancellor says he wishes to promote: those in manufacturing industry. The service industry will not be hit by those measures as much as manufacturing will, and, given Northern Ireland’s reliance on gas and oil to fuel and power manufacturing industry, and the fact that our energy costs are already higher than in other parts of the United Kingdom, that will gravely disadvantage manufacturing firms in Northern Ireland, at the very time when the Executive in Northern Ireland is trying to rebalance the economy.

[Sajid Javid (Bromsgrove) (Con)]

The hon. Gentleman started his speech by saying that he would provide a more objective analysis, and I was excited by that. In that vein, does he accept that the Chancellor’s announcement that, for the first time, as a major departure from corporation tax policy, he would consider a separate tax rate for Northern Ireland, making the whole Province an enterprise zone, is very welcome and could help with some of the things that the hon. Gentleman is pointing out?

[Sammy Wilson]

I wish to come to that point later, but I hope the hon. Gentleman will accept that my comments so far, at least, have been objective, because they are based on the figures that the Chancellor has provided.

The Chancellor talked about another measure today for encouraging growth, the enterprise zones that the hon. Gentleman mentions. When we look at the figures in the Red Book, however, we find that in the first year, 21 enterprise zones will eventually be in place but the money made available to businesses as a result of tax exemption will amount to £20 million. By the final year, the figure will be £80 million, and I do not know whether £4 million in each zone will generate a great deal in additional output.

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[Joseph Johnson]

I did not touch on it directly because the reply is obvious. Yes, other countries have large debts, but that does not mean that we do not have an urgent need to reduce the scope of our borrowing and our national interest payments.

[Sajid Javid]

The hon. Member for Rhondda (Chris Bryant) should recognise that every country’s situation is different. He mentions Japan, whose debt might be about 190% of GDP, but it is also the largest creditor nation in the world. Only about 5% of its total debt stock is held by foreign investors. The situation is quite different in our case.

[Joseph Johnson]

That is an excellent point.

As my right hon. Friend the Member for Wokingham (Mr Redwood) said earlier, Portugal’s position is particularly precarious at the moment because opposition parties there, much like here, have refused to back the austerity measures needed to help the country avoid a bail-out. That could force Portugal further down the international bail-out route that was first trodden by Greece last spring and then by Ireland at the end of last year. Portugal’s 10-year Government bond yields rose comfortably above 8% yesterday, for the first time since the start of the crisis, reflecting plunging market confidence in the resolve of that country’s political class. That cannot be said of the occupants of Nos. 10 and 11 Downing street.

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[Mr Jones]

I find that hard to stomach, coming from the right hon. Gentleman, because he is giving succour to the proposals before us, which could damage the north-east economy more severely than even those in Thatcher’s day. He is looking both ways, as a Liberal saying one thing in the region, and then coming here and supporting and voting for a Conservative Government who are putting the proposals forward. [Interruption.] I will tell him exactly why. What we would not have done is put forward his and his party’s ludicrous proposal to abolish the regional development agency, One North East.

The right hon. Gentleman now has to defend his ludicrous policy on local enterprise partnerships, which I shall come to later. He struggled to get re-elected this time; I doubt whether the voters of Berwick will re-elect him if he stands next time. It is important to remember that none of this could have happened without the Liberal Democrats blindly going along and supporting those savage cuts, which will have a terrible effect on a region I know he actually cares deeply about.

Another major aspect of the current economic situation is inflation. The Bank of England is stuck between a rock and hard place. Interest rates are as low as they can go, and quantitative easing is continuing, yet the inflation target is way above where it should be. It is difficult to know what the Bank will do.

We continue to hear, as we have heard several times this afternoon, that there is no alternative to this approach. I am sorry, but there is a definite alternative. We also hear that the fact that we are in this mess is all down to a Labour Government—that only Britain went through the recession in 2008, while the rest of the world did not, and that we got into the position we did only because of Labour’s reckless spending and financial management. I want to put some facts on the record. Conservative Members use a lot of rhetoric and soundbites; the famous one from the Prime Minister was that Labour did not mend the roof while the sun was shining. In fact, we did, because when we came to power in 1997, the level of debt was nearly 50% and we reduced it. I remember the tremendous debate within my party when we sold off the 3G licences. People said that we should use that money to fund public expenditure, but the then Chancellor took the very good decision to drive down the level of debt. That left us, going into the economic downturn, in the strong position of having the lowest debt, unemployment and inflation in the G7, and the highest investment from overseas.

Was it right to transform and invest in our public services over those 13 years? Yes, it was. They have been transformed in many parts of this country, certainly in my constituency. When I was first elected in 2001, the hospital in Chester-le-Street was in the old workhouse. We now have a brand-new hospital in Chester-le-street, as well as three others in the area. We have six or seven new primary care centres in County Durham. That is a direct result of public investment. When the economic crisis hit, did we have to respond to that by borrowing? Yes, we did. Was it the right thing to do? Yes, it was.

At the time of the crisis at Northern Rock, if we had followed what the Conservatives, including the current Chancellor of the Exchequer, wanted to do, which was basically to let it fold, we would have had a far worse situation, with a banking crisis that would have devastated not only Northern Rock but every other bank. The then Chancellor put in place a package to support banks, subsidise mortgages, cut VAT, fund apprenticeships, and give people money to buy new cars and stimulate the economy—and it worked. If people want to look for the evidence for that, there is the growth of the economy in the months prior to, and just after, the general election.

Contrast that with what we have now—a Government who do not have a growth strategy and are wedded to a strategy that they feel it would be politically weak to go away from, repeating time and again that there is no alternative. I ask Conservative Members to reflect on what they would have done at that time. Last weekend, the Chancellor said that we were in this financial state because of a decade of over-expenditure by the Labour party. Well, the Conservatives supported our spending targets right up until 2008, so they cannot have it both ways. I ask them to look at the facts rather than what central office spun during the election campaign, which, unfortunately, some of them are continuing to repeat.

[Sajid Javid]

I am glad that the hon. Gentleman said that one should look at the facts. Is he aware that the spending cuts over this parliamentary period are only 3.7%—0.9% a year—in real terms, which is lower than the spending cuts that were implemented by Denis Healey, a former Chancellor? On that basis, would he still describe them as swingeing, drastic or tough cuts?

[Mr Jones]

I am sorry, but yes I would. If hon. Members are going to make comparisons, they should compare like with like. Whoever writes the central office briefings does one thing all the time. They compare our economy with that of Greece or, as the hon. Gentleman just did, they compare the British economy today with that of the 1970s. That is complete nonsense.

The central point—some Liberal Democrats are starting to wake up to this, including the Deputy Prime Minister—is that although there is a need and a desire to reduce the deficit, there is also an ideological drive to have a smaller state and to put into practice the ideological prejudices that the Conservatives have yearned to implement for many years. The people of this country will suffer from that. Is there an alternative? Yes, there certainly is.

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[Sajid Javid (Bromsgrove) (Con)]

I congratulate the hon. and gallant Member for Barnsley Central (Dan Jarvis) on an excellent maiden speech.

I would describe this Budget as healthily underwhelming. I say “healthily” because it recognises that private sector growth is crucial to our future prosperity. I say “underwhelming” because it reiterates the need to continue our fiscal consolidation, and I congratulate the Chancellor on keeping on course with that. The Budget recognises the terrible economic inheritance that this Government were given. Our first Budget was a rescue mission, whereas this Budget is about a desire to build on the foundations for economic growth. Our budget deficit was 11% of GDP—it still is, because the cuts have not yet really begun—and the largest of any major country. Our national debt grew by 150% over the 13 years of the Labour Government to £893 billion by the time they left office. If we add the costs of the banking interventions to that, we find that our national debt is more than £2.1 trillion, according to the Office for National Statistics. That means that our debt as a percentage of GDP is on a par with that of both Lebanon and Jamaica. Our interest rate costs are £120 million a day and £43 billion in total this year, and they will rise each and every year in this Parliament to £66.8 billion. Although Labour Members may be in denial, I am glad to see that the International Monetary Fund, the OECD, the CBI and the Institute for Fiscal Studies are not.

What compounds our problems and the need for this continued fiscal consolidation is the very uncertain global outlook. The eurozone is still in trouble, as I found when I checked the bond market yields of some eurozone countries this morning. Despite the bail-outs, Greece’s yields are more than 13% and Ireland’s are more than 10%. Portugal is going through a parliamentary test today, and its yields are more than 7.85%. Our five-year bond yields are at 2.37%, despite our having the largest budget deficit of all the countries that I just mentioned. The emerging markets are also causing particular problems for our growth prospects, with things slowing down in China, India, Brazil and Russia—China has hiked rates twice in the past few months. We have relied on economic growth in that country to help our own export industry, so we need to keep an eye on the situation.

Lastly, as has been mentioned, in particular by the hon. Member for Wirral South (Alison McGovern), there is concern about global inflation. Clearly inflation has been caused primarily by rises in the price of oil, metals and food, but in the UK, in particular, devaluation has had an impact. It has had a positive impact on exports, but it tends to import inflation too. What has not been mentioned today is the potential impact of quantitative easing—the policy of buying up to £200 billion of both corporate bonds and gilts. That has an impact on the money supply in this country and it is doubtless having an impact on inflation.

With RPI inflation at 5.5%—the figure was published yesterday—and our gilt rate at 2.37%, the real rate of return is negative on our bond markets and that is a very fragile situation for the markets. To put that into context, the last time that RPI inflation was at that level was in 1991. At that time, our five-year gilt rate was at 10.09%. Clearly if the markets woke up one day and decided that they were not going to accept such low negative interest rates any more, we would be in a much worse predicament. That underlines the need for continued fiscal consolidation.

On the Budget itself, I note that the Red Book shows that spending continues to increase in cash terms from £694 billion to £744 billion by the end of this Parliament and that in real terms the actual fall in public spending is 3.7%. I do not want to belittle such a decline in real terms, but it is certainly not the type of savage cut that has been mentioned by certain commentators and by Opposition Members. In fact, it is about 0.9% a year, less than the cuts made by Denis Healey when he was Chancellor.

I particularly welcome the Chancellor’s announcement that he will consider merging the operation of national insurance and income tax. National insurance was introduced by David Lloyd George 100 years ago on the contributory principle, which hardly applies to national insurance today. It makes absolute sense to consider merging its operation with that of income tax so that we can reduce administration and compliance costs and increase transparency. Many times in the past, a Chancellor has stood at the Dispatch Box on Budget day and said that he is not increasing income taxes but has gone on to increase national insurance. That transparency will be welcome and in future it might lead to greater downward pressure from the general public on personal tax levels.

That measure would also add to the simplification of our tax code, which is critical, especially when it comes to helping businesses. Our tax code has doubled in size since 1997, with a guide almost 2,000 pages long, and it is equivalent to 10 copies of Tolstoy’s novel, “War and Peace”.

Last year, I welcomed the Chancellor’s commitment that the 50p income tax rate will not be a permanent feature of the tax system and I urge him, when he reviews the tax rate, to consider it in the same way as he considered capital gains tax when it was raised from 18% to 28%. A dynamic analysis was carried out at that time and perhaps such an analysis could be done of the 50p rate to show that it does not bring in any extra tax from richer members of society. Perhaps if it is cut back down to 40%, the rich will pay more in tax.

The Chancellor made a number of excellent announcements on growth. Time limits me from mentioning them all, but I want to highlight a few, particularly the moratorium for small businesses with fewer than 10 employees. I hope that we can consider ways to deal with regulations from the EU more constructively. I note that the EU agency workers directive, if and when it comes into force, will cost businesses in Britain almost £1.5 billion a year. Although the Government have a one-in, one-out policy, if that is successful it will only keep regulation at current levels. I hope that it will become a one-in, two-out policy. I welcome the enterprise zones and the decision to speed up planning decisions and ensure that they are made within one year. I also welcome the decision to increase the enterprise investment scheme allowance from 20% to 30% as well as the increase in entrepreneurs’ relief and the cut in corporation tax.

The policies that will truly promote growth are those that the Government have started to implement in some of their key plans in other Departments. In education, we will get young people to focus once again on core subjects and, in the context of reskilling our young people, I welcome the announcement that we will increase the number of apprenticeships and build on the good work done by the Minister for Further Education, Skills and Lifelong Learning by adding another 50,000 apprenticeship places by the end of the Parliament. So, 250,000 new apprenticeships will have been created by this Government by the end of the Parliament. I welcome the decision in the context of welfare to introduce the universal credit, which will ensure that it will always pay anyone on out-of-work benefits to be in work rather than out of work.

In conclusion, the Budget deals with our fiscal overstretch and promotes growth in tandem with other Government policies. I commend it to the House.