Surplus Target and Corporation Tax

Debate between Stewart Hosie and George Osborne

Monday 4th July 2016 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

It is clearly likely that we will be impacted by a cyclical downturn in the public finances—we can already see the growth forecasts being adjusted. The OBR will help us to make an assessment of the referendum result’s structural impact on the public finances and our chances of hitting the target—as I say, it looks unlikely that we will hit it—and then, under the fiscal charter, it will be up to the Government to produce a plan that will be debated and voted on by the House. We have provided for this contingency, and now we need to let the OBR do its work.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

I welcome what the Chancellor said about possible monetary policy easing from the Bank, about the automatic stabilisers and, in particular, about export promotion—we hope that that will be matched by a U-turn on the cuts to the UK Trade & Investment’s export promotion budget.

In general terms, we welcome the U-turn on the arbitrary fiscal surplus rule, which, we should remember, planned to cut more than £40 billion a year and was required to run a balanced current account budget. While we support tax competition and recognise that corporation tax cuts might be a useful tool in the fight against capital flight in the aftermath of the appalling Brexit decision, it is also true if we look at the 2016 Red Book numbers as a guide, that a substantial cut in corporation tax—say, 5%—could, in the absence of behavioural change, lead to a reduction of revenue yield of about £2.5 billion a year. I ask the Chancellor one question in particular. Given that he has abandoned his fiscal rule, will he today rule out any plans to claw back potential losses in revenue yield from the cut in corporation tax, in the absence of behavioural change, through the mechanism of further attacks on the welfare budget?

[Mr Osborne]

First, as a result of the reforms we have made over the last six years, the Bank of England has many more tools at its disposal than it did in the financial crash. Obviously, it can act on monetary policy consistent with its inflation target. The Governor of the Bank of England, speaking in a personal capacity as a member of Monetary Policy Committee, said that easing was likely to be required. A number of other tools, including counter-cyclical financial tools, are available, which means that there is a range of options to deploy. Over the coming weeks, we will hear whether, how and why the Bank of England, which is independent in its decision making, needs to deploy those tools.

I am rather disappointed that the SNP spokesman has not reminded us that it was SNP policy to cut corporation tax. Indeed, that has been its policy for year after year. In the independence referendum, the SNP said that one of the benefits of independence was the ability to cut corporation tax. The great thing about being in the United Kingdom is that the SNP can get corporation tax cuts in any case.

Oral Answers to Questions

Debate between Stewart Hosie and George Osborne

Tuesday 7th June 2016 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

My hon. Friend is right to point out all the good things that are happening in Newark. Across the east midlands, we have seen the creation of 53,000 new small and medium-sized businesses since we came into Downing Street—a remarkable achievement. We have to ensure that we continue to move people up the job scale and that their wages continue to grow. The good news is that of the jobs being created at the moment 80% or so are full time and the majority are in skilled occupations.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

We all know the benefits of innovation to business and to the economy, so why does the Chancellor think his decision to change innovation support from grants to loans is anything other than a bad idea that will increase cost and risk to companies seeking to innovate?

[Mr Osborne]

I think the hon. Gentleman would accept, as I would, that it has been a challenge for the UK to turn good inventions in the laboratory into good inventions in the workplace that sell around the world. Our innovation support has had to be updated and modernised. The idea of loans is actually borrowed from a French initiative that has worked well in that economy, in terms of turning scientific invention into good products in the marketplace.

[Stewart Hosie]

That is a rather unconvincing answer. Of course it is not simply about innovation, but exports. We all understand the benefits to business and the economy of exporting more, so why does the Chancellor think it is a remotely good idea to take the decision to cut the UK Trade & Investment budget by £42 million over the next four years, making it more difficult to export and more difficult for him to meet his own target of doubling exports by the end of the decade?

[Mr Osborne]

Over the past five or six years, we have greatly increased the UKTI budget, but as with every Department, since it is paid for by the taxpayers that the hon. Gentleman and I represent, we need to make sure we get value for money. The new head of UKTI is ensuring that the money is going to the frontline to support small and medium-sized Scottish exporters and others in selling around the world. He should welcome the enormous success of many Scottish businesses, from the whisky business to agricultural industries and manufacturing, in exporting around the world, with the support of UKTI—the clue is in the first two letters.

Oral Answers to Questions

Debate between Stewart Hosie and George Osborne

Tuesday 19th April 2016 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

First, we are introducing a register of the beneficial ownership of companies and trusts that need to pay tax, and of course banks must therefore comply with it. Secondly, we are introducing—this will be in the Queen’s Speech—a new criminal offence of facilitating tax evasion, which will apply to the corporate sector in Britain as well. That is in addition to the criminal offence we have introduced that says ignorance is no defence when someone comes before the courts if it is found that they have been evading taxes.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

Tax havens lead to a loss of revenue here as individuals can hide through opaque structures and businesses simply do not pay UK tax in respect of where economic activity takes place. Given the revelations from Mossack Fonseca, has the Treasury carried out a new assessment to calculate the scale and size of the revenue lost to the UK?

[Mr Osborne]

There are already a large number of ongoing investigations in respect of Panama, which we hope will lead to prosecutions, and the Government already had data on Mossack Fonseca. If there is additional information available in the Panama papers—despite our requests, the media organisations have not yet handed all that information over to us—we will act on it.

[Stewart Hosie]

Can I ask the Chancellor to be more assertive and to go much further? Mossack Fonseca is the fourth biggest such firm in Panama, and I presume that there are dozens, scores or hundreds of smaller ones, and there will be many, many more in other countries. The scale and scope of this are likely to be astronomical. He and the Government need to go much further. We need to have a much clearer understanding of the scale of this. I ask him to make all the representations he can to the Panamanian authorities and other jurisdictions where similar activities are taking place.

[Mr Osborne]

To be frank, representations are not going to be enough with some of these jurisdictions. That is why we want international agreement to a blacklist that jurisdictions will go on if they do not comply with the norms that we are establishing on transparency, exchange of information and the like. Once they are on the blacklist, they are subject to penalties and punitive action—sanctions, if you like—so that it is clear that they cannot carry on doing business in the way they have been. If the whole world comes around on that—there was welcome support for this British-promoted concept at the G20 last week in Washington—so that we get that blacklist and that punitive action, I think that we will help to solve this problem.

Oral Answers to Questions

Debate between Stewart Hosie and George Osborne

Tuesday 1st March 2016 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

Our argument is that we will be stronger and better off inside the European Union. That is the positive choice that we face as a country. I, personally, do not think that we should leave the EU, but even those who contemplate doing so should think about this. With the economic situation that the world faces at the moment, and with the geopolitical situation that we face in Europe with Putin on our doorstep and the crisis in the middle east, is this the right moment to leave? My strong advice, the advice of the British Cabinet and the advice of the British Government is that we remain in this reformed EU.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

The Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon was in London yesterday making the case for the UK to remain in the EU. She made the point that access to that market supports some 300,000 jobs in Scotland and some 3 million jobs in the UK. May I ask the Chancellor to agree with me—I am sure he will—that in terms of EU membership, trade deals are easier to agree as a bloc, harmonised regulation helps businesses to export and, notwithstanding the fact that improvements can always be made, being a member of the EU benefits consumers as well?

[Mr Osborne]

I agree that Scotland benefits from both being part of the United Kingdom and being part of the European Union. The hon. Gentleman is right to highlight the fact that EU agreements on things such as air travel and mobile phone charges have reduced costs for consumers. It is also the case that a depreciation in sterling leads to increased inflation.

[Stewart Hosie]

The extent to which the EU has succeeded is actually quite remarkable in terms of free trade, free movement—we think it is a boon—and, indeed, the commensurate protections for the environment, social protection and employment rights. These substantial achievements of the European Union are to be celebrated, not renounced. That is the positive case we are making. May I urge the Chancellor and his right hon. Friend the Prime Minister to make a positive case, because the in campaign does not have a 20-point lead to squander with a negative campaign?

[Mr Osborne]

I am making the positive case that we will be stronger, safer and better off, which are all positive outcomes for our country, and I am pointing out that there are question marks over the alternatives. It is perfectly reasonable to point out that we do not know what the leap in the dark would entail, but of course I want to do this in a positive way. There is a healthy debate across our political system as well as across our country, but I take the view of Ronald Reagan’s 11th commandment, which is that “I won’t speak ill of a Conservative.”

Oral Answers to Questions

Debate between Stewart Hosie and George Osborne

Tuesday 19th January 2016 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

My hon. Friend is right, and the Help to Buy ISA has been a spectacular success. In the few weeks since its launch, 170,000 families have taken it up, and it is helping people to get on the property ladder and save for that deposit. We are doing everything that we can to support the aspirations of the families of Britain.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

The Government’s plan requires the doubling of exports by 2020 to £1 trillion —a promise repeated in “Fixing the Foundations”, which was published in this Parliament. Does the Chancellor still hold to the intention and promise to see UK exports rise by £100 billion a year every year for the next five years?

[Mr Osborne]

We hold to that target, but frankly it will be very challenging to meet. We have been improving exports, but many of our main export markets have been weak, and we would like further economic reform on the continent of Europe. Some of the big emerging markets are struggling at the moment, but a good economic dialogue is taking place today with India, and British exports to India are increasing. Only recently has the United States economy started to grow. There are many challenges, but I do not think we should duck those challenges or ditch the target. Increasing exports is a key priority for the UK.

[Stewart Hosie]

I agree that we should set ambitious targets, but they must be credible. Given that the British Chambers of Commerce states that the export target will be undershot, and the Office for Budget Responsibility states that it will fail to be met by some £350 billion, is it better to set a realistic and achievable target, rather than risk losing credibility as the Chancellor did when he failed on debt, deficit and borrowing targets in the previous Parliament?

[Mr Osborne]

It is right to set and to try to meet a stretching target, even if that will be challenging. The hon. Gentleman talks about realistic and credible numbers. If Scotland had listened to the Scottish nationalists, it would be separating from the United Kingdom in two months’ time. The Scottish Government based their claim for independence on an oil price of $115. Scotland would now be heading for economic catastrophe if it had listened to the hon. Gentleman and Scottish National party members. Before they talk about credible and realistic economic policies anywhere else in the United Kingdom, they should get one themselves.

Oral Answers to Questions

Debate between Stewart Hosie and George Osborne

Tuesday 1st December 2015 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

The fact that the apprenticeships levy is set up in such a way that a large company employing high-quality apprentices will be able to receive back from the Government more than it puts in sets it aside from classic payroll taxes. Indeed, it has been broadly welcomed by the business community, even though it accepts the additional burden it represents. That is going to be very important. We made the calculations for the impact on the public sector in our public finance projections, and I am happy to write to my right hon. Friend with the precise numbers.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

Will the Chancellor confirm that in addition to the 17% cut to the funding of the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, the autumn statement did, as other Members have said, add £11 billion to the tax bill of businesses, in the area of business growth and skills, and mainly driven by the apprenticeship levy?

[Mr Osborne]

I would have thought and hoped that the Scottish National party supported an apprenticeships levy whereby we use the money to create 3 million apprenticeships in this part of the United Kingdom and make sure that there are arrangements to pass the money to the Scottish Government so that they can improve skills in Scotland. But of course if one looks closely at the record of the SNP Government, one sees that they have been cutting further education places in Scotland. As usual, the SNP says one thing here and does something different in Scotland.

[Stewart Hosie]

The question was of course about the £11 billion extra tax cost for business and the cut to the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills—something the Chancellor does not want to talk about. Given that there was no increase in retail sales in the last quarter, that the CBI industrial trends survey is down, that consumer confidence is down, that the deficit in the trade in goods is a colossal £134 billion and that manufacturing output is down, why does this political Chancellor think that cutting BIS by 17% and adding £11 billion to business costs over the spending review period is even remotely sensible?

[Mr Osborne]

Because we do not equate the health of the business sector with the size of the Business Department. We have increased the money going into innovation by raising the budget for the catapult centres, and we have boosted the budget for science, one of the great UK strengths, which would be undermined if Scotland became independent. I would make a further point. The hon. Gentleman asked about economic projections, but in the independent OBR forecast growth is up, jobs are up, living standards are up and wages are up. That is all part of a successful economic plan which is delivering the goods for the whole United Kingdom.

Spending Review and Autumn Statement

Debate between Stewart Hosie and George Osborne

Wednesday 25th November 2015 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

My right hon. Friend is absolutely right. As an economy, we have been growing faster than most of the advanced economies of the world. In that situation, not getting the deficit and the debt falling is really signalling to the world that we are never, ever going to try to bring public finances under control. As it is, we have debt falling in every year of this forecast, and it is lower than the forecast in the Budget. The deficit is also falling and overall borrowing is lower in this forecast than in the one I produced in the summer Budget. We take these steps to pay down our debts. Our national debt, at 80% of national income, is uncomfortably high. It does not necessarily, therefore, give us all the flexibility we would want if we were to be hit by some kind of external shock and is all the more reason for us to use the better times to pay down the debt.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

I was intrigued by Tory Back Benchers cheering the humiliating U-turn on tax credits. It seems barely three or four weeks ago that they were cheering on, and voting for, the implementation of the tax credit policy. But times move on and things change.

The genesis of today’s statement was the decision announced last year when the Chancellor stated that he wanted to reduce public spending to barely 35% of GDP by the end of this Parliament. That was adjusted up to just over 36% in the summer Budget, but the direction of travel—the shrinking of services provided by the state—was very clear. It was set in stone with the fiscal charter earlier this year, with the intention to run a current account surplus of £40 billion a year by 2019-20. Those numbers have changed slightly today. The Chancellor wants not only to shrink the size of the state to 36.5% of GDP but to run a current account surplus of £42 billion. Can we just be clear? The UK has not routinely seen spending at 36% or 37% of GDP since the 1930s and 1940s. The Chancellor’s ideology has not changed. In essence, he still intends to cut £40 billion a year more than he needs to, to run a current account budget in balance by the end of this Parliament.

Notwithstanding the humiliating U-turn on tax credits, the Government added £37 billion of cuts in tax rises in the summer Budget to the £121 billion of fiscal or discretionary consolidation in the previous Parliament. Announced in the Blue Book today is £18 billion of cuts and the Chancellor was very clear that the £12 billion of welfare cuts remain on the table. Even after today, the public are facing a decade of austerity. These decisions are political choices. The Government ignore the fiscally responsible alternative course of action, which, with a very modest increase in public expenditure, would ensure that no one is left behind.

The Government are not for working people. Nothing they say can camouflage the failure of the past five years, and the Chancellor’s statement merely confirms that they are making the same mistakes all over again. We saw the impact on GDP growth of rising inequality in the 20 years to 2010. The continuation of the austerity agenda represents a wilful disregard for and failure to learn the lessons of the recent past.

The Chancellor may not care about inequality, and the 1 million people receiving food parcels compared with barely 25,000 five or six years ago, but the Government should care about its impact on economic growth. Let me ask the Chancellor some specific questions. We have been concerned for some time about the failure to increase productivity. The Chancellor knows that the UK sits in the third quartile of advanced economies. How does a 17% cut to the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills help to support firms seeking to increase productivity?

We have been concerned about the negative impact of balance of trade, a situation that got worse between the spring and summer Budget forecasts. The impact for every year published today is still negative. How does the absence of a plan to encourage exports and a further cut to the UK Trade & Investment budget help to reverse the dire balance of trade position? We share the Chancellor’s concern to protect growth and tax yield, and to close the tax gap, but how does the closure of 137 HMRC offices possibly do anything other than weaken the ability of the Revenue to collect the tax that is due?

The Chancellor said that the UK would take the fight to its enemies, but he omitted to mention action in Syria. Should the Government get the vote they want in the next few weeks, will he tell us how much he plans to set aside for the reconstruction and stabilisation of Syria after any military intervention is over? We remain as concerned as he does about the failure to invest in capital, which is absolutely imperative to boost economic growth. We welcome the increase in capital spend announced today. I just say to him, however, that cuts last winter, increases in the spring, cuts in the summer and increases in the autumn represent a shambles of a way to plan long-term capital investment.

In Scotland, we saw cuts to revenue and capital over the previous Parliament. We have had confirmation today of further real-terms cuts to Scottish revenue funding over the spending review period. Instead of the Bullingdon sneering about oil, which the Chancellor did earlier, he would have been better recognising that the Scottish economy is now 2.5% larger than it was pre-crisis and productivity is 4% higher than in 2007. It is contributing to the UK recovery. Instead of hobbling and undermining the Scottish Government, he might consider it to be worthy of support.

The Government received barely a third of the vote of those who voted and the Conservative party achieved its worst result in Scotland since 1865. Let us be clear. I do not expect the Chancellor to change his mind, but the public in Scotland and in the UK did not vote for a decade of austerity.

[Mr Osborne]

This spending review delivers economic and national security for the people of Scotland. It funds a £1.9 billion increase to their capital budget and the block grant goes up by £1 billion. There is a 14% capital boost from the United Kingdom Government. Instead of complaining, the hon. Gentleman might, on behalf of the Scottish Government, have welcomed that and set out any plans he might have for how to spend it. I suspect we will hear a lot from the Scottish nationalists in this Parliament about process, constitutional issues and all that, but they will not tell us what they are actually going to do to improve the lives of people in Scotland. He talks about productivity. If we look at the Scottish Government’s record, we see that they have cut 140,000 further education college places in Scotland. They have used the money they have taken from the university sector for free prescriptions for millionaires, as if that is a good use of Scottish taxpayers’ money. Health spending in Scotland is rising more slowly than it is in England, where the Conservative Government are in charge of the English national health service.

In the spending review, there is extra capital for Scotland so it can invest in its long-term future. There is a huge commitment to the defence estate in Scotland, with new planes based at RAF Lossiemouth and a massive investment in shipbuilding on the Clyde for many years to come. By the way, I know that the SNP is keen to court the unions in Scotland. The GMB said that the news about the frigates

“should be welcomed and not used for political mischief”.

That is another sensible thing the GMB has said. And there is the huge investment at the base at Faslane, where 8,000 people work. The Scottish National party pretends it would get rid of the nuclear deterrent and somehow give all those 8,000 people jobs in our defence establishment—the SNP is not being straight with the people who work on the Clyde or in Scotland’s defence industries.

We are also working on implementing the Glasgow city deal, and on a city deal for Inverness and for Aberdeen, and we are ready to sit down with John Swinney to negotiate a fiscal framework. We have now the Scotland Bill, which Lord Smith says “delivers the legislation required” to deliver the agreement. For months, SNP Members have been telling us that we were not doing what the Smith commission said, but now Lord Smith says that we are. To make these powers work, we need agreement on a fiscal framework. Let us sit down—we can sit down tomorrow, next week or whenever—to agree a fair fiscal funding framework.

The truth is that SNP Members complain about decisions on public expenditure, but if Scotland had voted to be independent, its public finances would be in complete tatters. The OBR forecast today is that oil revenues are down 94% in the North sea because of the fall in the world oil price. That is a £20 billion hole in the financial programme that the SNP Government tried to foist on the people of Scotland. The whole thing can be summed up by the words of Mr Alex Bell, who was the former First Minister’s head of policy. He said this week:

“The SNP’s model of independence is broken beyond repair…the campaign towards the 2014 vote, and the economic information since, has kicked the old model to death. The idea that you could have a Scotland with high public spending, low taxes, a stable economy and reasonable government debt was wishful a year ago—now it is deluded.”

That is the SNP verdict on the SNP plans.

Oral Answers to Questions

Debate between Stewart Hosie and George Osborne

Tuesday 27th October 2015 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

My hon. Friend makes a very important point. The savings we make in welfare are part of a package that includes a national living wage. Although the national living wage starts to come in next year, over 200 major companies—such as Sainsbury’s, Morrisons, Costa Coffee and many others—have already, since the Budget, introduced wage increases that match what we are proposing to do by statute, so we are already seeing the benefits of the national living wage coming into effect before it is even introduced.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

We know that there are 500,000 more children in poverty since 2010—[Hon. Members: “No.”] There are 500,000 more children in poverty since 2010, and there will potentially be 4 million children in poverty by the end of this Parliament. If the Chancellor is in listening mode, knowing that he does not need to make these cuts to balance the budget, why does he not listen to those who say, “Stop now with the policy of tax credit cuts”?

[Mr Osborne]

I am afraid that the hon. Gentleman is just not correct on the numbers. Child poverty is down by 300,000 since 2010, and the number of children in workless households is now 500,000 fewer than it was when the Government came to office. The truth is it is difficult to take any lectures from Scottish National party Members about balancing the books. They made forecasts for their oil revenues that would have left Scotland with a £30 billion black hole if they had ever got their way. We will go on delivering economic security for the people of Scotland, and indeed the rest of the United Kingdom, by taking the difficult decisions that his party ducks.

[Stewart Hosie]

The Chancellor is in denial—absolute denial. Did not yesterday, 26 October, demonstrate two things—the Chancellor has lost his political touch, and his chance of being Prime Minister has just gone up in a puff of ermine-clad smoke?

[Mr Osborne]

As ever, when pressed, all that SNP Members want to talk about is party political gains, rather than sorting out the mess that this country was in six or seven years ago. As a result of the changes we have made, there are hundreds of thousands more people in Scotland with jobs, businesses are investing in Scotland, as they are across the United Kingdom, and we will go on making those changes. The hon. Gentleman can go on praying in aid a House of Lords that he has spent his whole life campaigning to abolish. I will go on delivering the reforms to our economy that are needed to help Scotland to continue to grow.

Oral Answers to Questions

Debate between Stewart Hosie and George Osborne

Tuesday 21st July 2015 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

I pay tribute to the work that was done during the last Parliament by the Treasury Committee, some of whose members are still in their posts, and I again congratulate my right hon. Friend on remaining Chair of that Committee. Today we are publishing the consultation document on the new Bank of England Bill, which will come before Parliament in due course. The Bill follows the reforms announced by the Governor of the Bank, which built on the work done by the Treasury Committee and others. It will ensure that a modern Bank of England is able to exercise the leadership that is required for the delivery of economic and financial stability. Moreover, for the first time—this is crucial, and I think that Parliament will appreciate it—the Bank will be open to the advice of the National Audit Office, and the value for money that that can deliver.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

The success of the economic plan, long-term or otherwise, and the potential to improve productivity must be driven in part by sustained infrastructure capital investment, so can the Chancellor confirm that, instead of doing that, the plans he laid out in the summer Budget show total capital expenditure down every single year between 2015 and 2019-20 compared with the March Budget?

[Mr Osborne]

We made some in-year savings in this financial year in capital budgets that were not going to be well spent. We want to deliver value for money for Scottish taxpayers, as well as for taxpayers across the United Kingdom, but we will be spending more as a percentage of national income on capital investment in this decade than occurred under the last Labour Government.

[Stewart Hosie]

That is a fascinating answer, because of course the real answer is that in cash terms the spending is down—from 2015-16 onwards down £1.2 billion, £0.8 billion, £0.9 billion, £0.7 billion, and £1.3 billion by the time we get to 2019-20. So we know the forecasts are reduced, we know the Chancellor is cutting more than he needs in order to run a balanced budget, and we know he is undermining the potential for long-term growth, so why did he ignore all the advice, particularly from the OECD who told him two days before the Budget that “gross investment is low” and

“Transport infrastructure investment is poor”?

Does he really expect us to believe every—

Greece

Debate between Stewart Hosie and George Osborne

Monday 6th July 2015 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

Just as when people try to tell us what currency we should adopt we do not take too kindly to it, we should respect the decision of the Greek Government and people about the currency that they want to use. Clearly the Greek Government are saying that they want to remain in the euro. The tension, which has been there all along, is between that desire to remain in the euro and the conditions of membership that the other members of the eurozone are placing on them. That is the dilemma that has not yet been resolved.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

I thank the Chancellor for his statement and for early sight of it. The Scottish National party agrees with much of what he said.

Most people recognised last week that, irrespective of the outcome of the referendum, negotiations and difficult decisions would still have to be undertaken by both Greece and its creditors. The Chancellor observed last week that senior eurozone figures had said that had Greece voted yes, then negotiations would begin to try to find a satisfactory outcome. Given that Greece voted no to the troika conditions, but voted to remain part of the EU and the eurozone, will the Chancellor try to persuade his Finance Minister counterparts in the EU and colleagues in the ECB and IMF that they, too, should respect the outcome of the referendum, stay calm and return to the negotiating table to find a long-term sustainable solution to Greece’s problems? That is in all our best interests.

It is worth noting that, as the Chancellor said, the markets have barely moved since the referendum result. They, at least, clearly discounted the possibility of a no vote, even if others did not. Peripheral country 10-year bond yields, in particular in Spain and Italy, have barely moved and are at about 2.3%. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 index is off by about 1.2% as of earlier this afternoon, although bank stocks are down a little more. However, market sentiment may change and bond yields and European banking stocks in particular may yet come under further pressure. May I ask what are the contingency plans for that eventuality; not the detail—I understand the sensitivity—but perhaps the degree of liaison between the Greek central bank, the ECB and the Fed? What plans are there, in addition to what he has laid out, to support businesses that export to Greece, particularly in the light of capital controls, to ensure cash-flow problems do not damage perfectly viable businesses here?

The Greek people have voted against further austerity, which they argue—many would agree—has failed so far. The Greek Government have a clear mandate to negotiate on that basis. I very much welcome what the Chancellor said about respecting the decision of the Greek people. I hope he and his Government will continue to respect that decision. As he said, this situation risks going from bad to worse. Even if the immediate crisis passes, the risks that do exist may do so for some considerable time.

[Mr Osborne]

The hon. Gentleman is right in his assessment of the current state of the markets. There has been a muted reaction, although Greek bond spreads have increased. I think that is in part because eurozone leaders and Finance Ministers have acted with some restraint post the result. Some of the language we heard on all sides before the referendum has been toned down, which is very sensible. I think people are now looking at the crucial meetings that will take place tonight and tomorrow to see whether they will get around the table and try one final time to reach a way forward.

On the hon. Gentleman’s specific point about export businesses, we are in contact with the various business representative bodies. We have the helpline available and HMRC is able to help with cash-flow problems. I repeat the point I made earlier: if Members of Parliament have specific cases, they should bring them to us and we will make sure that the businesses in their constituencies get specific advice. The hon. Gentleman can have my assurance that we remain in regular contact with the European authorities. The Governor of the Bank of England remains in very close contact with the head of the European Central Bank. We are prepared for what happens. I note again that there is a very fast timetable happening in the financial system in Greece. We have to make sure that the political timetable keeps pace with it.

Greece

Debate between Stewart Hosie and George Osborne

Monday 29th June 2015 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

My right hon. and learned Friend is right to remind us that the people of Greece have paid a very high price for the mismanagement of their economy by previous Greek politicians and Greek Governments. Of course it is now a matter for the Greek people to decide their future, and we should respect that. I made it clear in my statement that most people now consider this referendum as one on whether Greece leaves the euro. Of course there are considerable consequences of taking that step, but I do not think we should be telling the people of Greece how to vote. It is for the people of Greece to make that decision, but they should be aware of the consequences. That is the broad approach that we shall take. The discussion of what would happen if Greece were to leave the euro should probably happen at a later date, but there will clearly be issues over the support that the family of western nations can provide to that country.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

I thank the Chancellor for his statement and for early sight of it. I welcome what he said about private sector exposures to Greece being substantially lower than they were some years ago. Exposure to the banks is around £5.3 billion, down from £9 billion some years before. That would tell us that the risk of direct contamination is relatively low, but as we have seen today there is a risk to the banking sector across the EU, and the fall in bank stocks throughout Europe is witness to that. I welcome what the Chancellor said about the Government and the central bank being ready to ensure the financial stability of the UK, but it might be helpful if he said a little more about confidence today.

In terms of other exposure, we have rather modest exports to Greece, worth about £2.82 billion, or 1.2% of EU exports and 0.5% of UK global exports. That figure is modest but nevertheless important to the people whose jobs depend on those exports. Will the Chancellor say a little more about that? Perhaps export promotion could be stepped up to help find new markets for businesses that might find the Greek export market more difficult; or, as the hon. Member for Nottingham East (Chris Leslie) mentioned, export credit guarantees and other short-term cash flow help, should they be required, could be used.

Finally, notwithstanding what the Chancellor said about negotiations being at an end, will he confirm that the IMF has some leeway in when it declares that a repayment has been missed, in that the IMF’s managing director has up to 30 days to notify the board if a country does not make a repayment deadline? Does that not provide some flexibility to ensure that a deal can be reached and provide a strong incentive for discussions continuing beyond Tuesday, notwithstanding the forthcoming Greek referendum?

[Mr Osborne]

I thank the hon. Gentleman for his questions. I should say that this afternoon we have been in touch with the devolved Administrations in the United Kingdom to ensure that they are aware of the plans and to work with them on any issues faced by them and by citizens and businesses in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

The Bank of England and the Prudential Regulation Authority are, of course, monitoring extremely closely the situation with the four Greek branches in the UK and the subsidiary, although, as I have said, the subsidiary is protected by our compensation scheme and supervised by the Bank of England. There is, of course, advice available to businesses with export links to Greece, but there are capital controls in place so there are restrictions on the settlement of payments being transferred out of the Greek banking system. Businesses should be aware of that. Cash flow problems can be addressed by contacting HMRC.

As for the IMF, I do not want to prejudge the decisions of the managing director or the board. We will just have to wait and see what unfolds in the coming days. It is fair to say that the space for substantive negotiations before the referendum is pretty limited. Of course, we shall see what the outcome of the referendum is. I would merely observe that many of the senior figures in the eurozone have said that if Greece were to vote yes, negotiations would begin to try to find a satisfactory outcome for the Greek financial situation.

Oral Answers to Questions

Debate between Stewart Hosie and George Osborne

Tuesday 16th June 2015 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

I certainly commend my hon. Friend for his consistency. I remember that in his maiden speech he made the case for Britain leaving the European Union, and he will of course have his opportunity in the referendum. I would say that this is precisely the judgment that the British people and this Parliament have to make: what are the economic benefits of our European Union membership, such as the single market, and what would be the alternative? That will be part of the lively debate, and as I say, the Treasury will be fully involved in that debate.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

There have already been a number of serious interventions in this debate suggesting that the in/out referendum will be disruptive for inward investment. At the very least, businesses seeking to invest need the certainty of knowing what the Chancellor believes success will be in the Prime Minister’s negotiations. Will he tell the House today what he considers success in terms of the outcome of the Prime Minister’s negotiations?

[Mr Osborne]

There are, of course, a number of things that we want to achieve. Speaking as the Chancellor of the Exchequer, I want to ensure that the European Union works for the citizens of the European Union and of the United Kingdom. That means that it must be a place where businesses want to grow, where jobs are created and that attracts investment from around the world. I do not want Europe to be the place that used to be the dynamic centre of the world, but is not any longer. That is what we are fighting for, and if we achieve it, it will be a success.

[Stewart Hosie]

We all want to see a dynamic EU, but there were no specifics in that answer. Is it not the case that however bad the negotiations, the Chancellor will declare them a success, and however good the negotiations, the out-at-any-cost brigade will declare them an unmitigated disaster? Instead of pandering to the UKIP agenda, should the Government not pull the whole idea of this daft referendum?

[Mr Osborne]

I do not want to say this to the SNP spokesman, but I am not sure that he is speaking for Scotland, because 58% of Scots want a referendum and 63% of SNP supporters want a referendum. He needs to get in touch with his grassroots.

The Economy

Debate between Stewart Hosie and George Osborne

Thursday 4th June 2015 Commons Chamber

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

It is a pleasure to propose the amendment in my name and those of my right hon. and hon. Friends. It is also a great pleasure to follow the right hon. and learned Member for Rushcliffe (Mr Clarke). He talked earlier in his contribution about the bizarre events in Scotland. We tend to call it democracy. In the same way as the Chancellor spoke about the good sense of the British people, I might say that, with 56 out of 59 MPs and half the vote, we celebrate very much the good sense of the Scottish people—a true one nation in every sense.

The Chancellor spoke about the challenges the Scottish economy may face. He spoke about fiscal autonomy and what he called a massive hole. I just say gently to him that any challenges on the Scottish current account are as nothing compared with a £1.6 trillion UK national debt built up by Labour and Tory alike.

The Chancellor laid out his plans today. For our part, the last thing that the country needs, that the economy can afford and that those who have suffered most over the past five years should be expected to bear is another austerity Government. Yet that is exactly the direction of travel laid out today: a continuation of vague talk about a long-term economic plan, where none really exists; hubris about so-called economic success, most of which is contradicted by fact and a litany of broken promises; and a complete disregard of the impact his policies have had, are having and will have over the next five years on people through the UK—and that is before we even start to talk about the impact on investment for growth and on our vital public services.

We know the impact those policies have had throughout the UK. We know what has happened in Scotland specifically since 2010. We have seen the budget cut by about 11% in real terms and capital expenditure down by 34%. As a result of decisions taken by this Chancellor, the budget in Scotland has been cut by a staggering £3.5 billion in real terms. The plans announced throughout the election and reiterated today—before the bombshell of in-year cuts, which we will analyse further later—will result in a cumulative share of cuts to day-to-day spending over the next five years for Scotland worth about £12 billion at today’s levels. Those cuts to Scotland and elsewhere are the consequence of the Chancellor’s economic failure.

It is worth reminding ourselves what the Chancellor said when he took office: debt would begin to fall as a share of GDP by last year; the current account should be in balance this year; and public sector net borrowing would fall to £20 billion in the same year. Debt did not fall as a share of GDP in 2014-15, the current account will not be back in the black until 2017-18, and public sector net borrowing—the Chancellor can smirk all he likes—was not the barely £20 billion he promised: it was almost four times that at £75 billion. The Chancellor failed to meet every one of the key targets he set himself. Tory policy stifled recovery from 2010 for years into the previous Parliament. With a cumulative £146 billion of cuts still to come, we are all on track for a decade of austerity.

We know where the pain of this has been felt and we know where the pain of it will be felt. In Scotland, 145,000 households affected by changes to incapacity benefit will lose about £2,000 each.

[Mr Osborne]

If the hon. Gentleman, who speaks for the Scottish nationalists, opposes these spending cuts, why does he not increase taxes and use the powers available to the Scottish Government? He could then spend more money.

[Stewart Hosie]

We do not need to increase taxes in the way the Chancellor describes. He knows perfectly well, and I will come on to it shortly, that there is a way of managing the economy in a fiscally responsible way that allows an increase in spending while the debt and the deficit continue to fall. He may disagree with me—I respect that—but he had better respect that this is a genuine alternative vision to the cuts coming from his party.

The pain will be felt by the 145,000 households affected by changes to incapacity benefit, the 370,000 who have seen tax credits reduced, and the 620,000 families hit by child benefit freezes. It will be felt by the 120,000 people who have lost an average of £2,600 as disability living allowance was removed. I am glad the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions is here to hear this. He can perhaps begin to understand that this is not a theoretical cut in a back office, but a real cut to real people’s living standards throughout the UK. It will be felt by the 835,000 households hit by the increase in the benefit cap. Why are these decisions wrong? There is now a substantial growing body of opinion, as the right hon. Member for Doncaster North (Edward Miliband) said, that we do not simply need a growing economy to fund our welfare provision; we need to squeeze inequality out of the system to provide a solid platform to grow the economy.