Question to the Department for Energy Security & Net Zero:

To ask the Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, if he will set out the evidential basis for his statement at Column 258 of Hansard on 25 November 2025 that "Thirty years of COPs have reduced global warming forecasts from 4°—indeed 5°—to something like 2.3° to 2.5°".

Before the Paris Agreement, policies in place put the world on track for around 4°C of warming by 2100. In 2013, Climate Action Tracker estimated close to 4°C of warming, with a one-in-three chance of exceeding 4°C. In 2010, the Emissions Gap Report from the United Nations Environment Programme estimated that even if announced climate pledges were delivered, temperatures could increase by up to 5°C. The latest Emissions Gap Report estimates that Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), mandated by the Paris Agreement, put the world on course for 2.3°C-2.5°C, or 1.9°C if all countries meet their NDC and net zero commitments.