Question to the Department for Exiting the European Union :

To ask the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, what estimate he has made of the level of income from services exports after the UK leaves the EU compared with before.

The Political Declaration outlines the EU and the UK’s commitment to ambitious arrangements for services and investment that go well beyond WTO commitments, and build on recent EU Free Trade Agreements, alongside new arrangements on financial services.

On 28 November the Government published long-term economic analysis of the relative impacts of different trading relationships in the long term, after the UK’s new relationship with the EU comes into effect. The analysis does not provide a sector-level breakdown of trade volumes impacts. The analysis estimates that, in the long run, UK exports are broadly unchanged in a modelled White Paper scenario compared to today’s arrangements. This equates to 12 percentage points higher than what would be expected in the modelled no deal scenario.