Question to the Cabinet Office:

To ask the Minister for the Cabinet Office, with reference to the Prime Minister's oral statement on 12 October 2026 that leaving the EU had done more harm than good, (i) if she will estimate how much UK GDP has been reduced in each year since 2016 as a result of leaving the EU; and (ii) and whether the Government has done any of its own analysis of this question.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is the government’s official forecaster. The OBR has included assessments of the economic impacts of leaving the EU in its forecasts since 2016. In March 2020 the OBR estimated that, as a result of the deal negotiated by the then government, GDP will be 4% lower in the long run than it would have been had the UK not withdrawn from the EU. As of the Spring Forecast 2026, these assumptions are unchanged from its previous assessment.