Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask His Majesty's Government what is the expected (1) total and (2) per capita reduction in daily calorie intake for (1) adults and (2) children in England as a result of the extension of the soft drinks industry levy announced on 25 November.

The changes to the Soft Drinks Industry Levy announced in the 2025 Autumn Budget are:

• reducing the lower sugar threshold to 4.5 grams per 100 millilitres, as it is currently at five grams per 100 millilitres; and
• removing previous exemptions for milk-based and milk substitute drinks.

These changes will apply from 1 January 2028. They are designed to encourage producers to reformulate their products to reduce sugar levels and avoid paying the levy, thus reducing the calories consumed from the drinks in scope.

The Department carried out a health benefit assessment to estimate the calorie reduction from these changes through reformulation and substitution to alternative drinks. Together, these changes reduce sugar and calorie intake from drinks across all age groups.

The analysis used nutrition data from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey, sales data from Worldpanel by Numerator, formerly Kantar WorldPanel, and a series of assumptions to estimate the sugar and calories removed from diets due to the changes. The approach, data sources, and assumptions are set out in detail in the published assessment.

This analysis estimates per person per day calorie reductions of 0.3 kcal in five to 10 year olds, 0.4 kcal in 11 to 18 year olds, 0.3 kcal in 19 to 64 year olds, and 0.2 kcal in those aged 65 years old and over. This is equivalent to approximately four million kcal per day in children and 13 million kcal per day in adults.