Question to the Department for International Trade:

To ask His Majesty's Government, further to their policy paper UK-India free trade agreement: the UK’s strategic approach, published on 13 January, to what extent they consider the long-run estimates within the document applicable to the UK in the first 15 years of the trade deal being in effect.

The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model used to estimate these benefits produces long run results: although not explicitly modelled, this is typically assumed to refer to a period of around 15 years after implementation. Because the model used is static, all changes resulting from the agreement are incorporated at once and therefore it does not capture short run impacts.

India is projected to be the world’s third largest economy by 2050 and as India’s middle class grows to nearly a quarter of a billion middle class consumers, greater access to this market is expected to benefit UK firms.