Question to the Department for Work and Pensions:

To ask His Majesty's Government what assumptions about the starting point, earnings measure, and uprating calculation, underpin their estimate of the fiscal effects of the proposed State Pension uprating reforms; and which assumptions have been supplied to the Office for Budget Responsibility.

From April 2030, pensioners will be protected by an adjusted Triple Lock. The State Pension will rise each year by at least Consumer Prices Index inflation or 2.5 per cent, whichever is higher, and by more where needed to retain its protected value relative to average earnings. The target share will be set by reference to the value of the full rate of new State Pension relative to average earnings as of 2029/30.

The Department’s published estimates use the Office for Budget Responsibility’s Spring Statement 2026 economic assumptions accounting for historical volatility in earnings growth and CPI inflation.

The Triple Lock has protected pensioner incomes and brought the State Pension to a record-high value relative to earnings. However, the current mechanism means increases in the State Pension outstrip earnings growth over time, which is unsustainable in the longer term. The adjustment will lock in the gains already made while putting the State Pension on a sustainable footing.