Draft National Policy Statement for National Networks
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The Minister of State, Department for Transport (Baroness Kramer) (LD)
My Lords, I very much welcome this debate on the Government’s draft national policy statement for national networks—the NPS. This House has a really important role in scrutinising the draft NPS. This debate will help the Government to prepare their final version so I am very appreciative of the comments that have been made today. If noble Lords wish in the future to feed in further comments, I will be glad to take those on board.
I thank the noble Lords, Lord Berkeley and Lord Bradshaw, for giving me a little heads-up in advance of some of the issues that concern them. I hope that that will help with my response today but I am aware that we have covered a very wide range of issues. If I inadvertently miss certain issues, I will be glad to follow up afterwards. I apologise to the noble Lord, Lord Marlesford, for the truncated map. We got it right on the rail freight map which manages to fit neatly into the page. We will get it corrected. It was not intentional but I fear merely a matter of pressing a button at the wrong moment. In terms of the issues around Sizewell C I do not have those details with me today, so I will have to respond to him separately, if I may.
The NPS is a specific document with a specific purpose. It is a technical planning policy statement that will comprise the decision-making framework for nationally significant road, rail and strategic rail freight interchange projects. The noble Lord, Lord Berkeley, made the point that it is crucial that rail freight interchange is included on that list. He asked for greater granularity in the report and I will pass that back in terms of consultation. I suspect that on this issue he knows granularity more than anyone else in this House, but I will take it back and try to get him a more detailed response.
The draft NPS requires a consideration of whether a scheme strikes the right balance between national need and local needs and priorities. I say that to the noble Lord, Lord Rosser, who raised the issue of how the national and local impact on each other. The document is quite explicit in requiring that balance to be struck. If the adverse impacts are greater than the benefits, or if a development fails certain planning tests, then development consent must be refused. In considering applications for development consent for nationally significant road and rail schemes, the decision-maker will need to take account of the full range of environmental, social and economic impacts.
As the noble Lord will know, the key reason for having the NPS as directed within the Planning Act 2008 was to remove protracted debate around issues of national policy from public inquiries, not to eliminate a proper review of schemes. I will come to this point later when I talk about environmental issues, but I advise anyone who has a moment to look at Section 5 of the draft policy statement, which has detailed sections on environmental issues which noble Lords may find helpful regarding some of the questions that they have raised.
There is a strong case for development of road and rail networks. The NPS identifies a compelling need to drive economic growth, improve quality of life and deliver better environmental performance. The national road and rail networks that connect our cities, regions and international gateways play a significant part in supporting economic growth and productivity as well as facilitating passenger business and leisure journeys across the country.
The noble Lord, Lord Rosser, asked why we do not specifically mention buses, coaches or stations. This is a document that operates at the higher levels, so we talk about roads but we do not talk about cars either. We are talking about the planning infrastructure. When it comes to stations, which he specifically mentioned, he will know that we have had an aggressive programme of reopening, improving and adding accessibility to stations, which is long-needed. I am very pleased that we have significant investment in that area and will continue it.
Our national networks are already under considerable pressure and that pressure is expected to increase further, as the long-term drivers of demand to travel, which are GDP and population, are forecast to increase substantially over the coming years. All of us recognise that without action, congestion and crowding will constrain the economy and reduce quality of life.
Some noble Lords talked about percentage increases. To give one example, on the road network in 2010—I think that we can say it will be worse now—it is estimated that 16% of all travel time was spent delayed in traffic. In London, on the rail network, some services are 7% over capacity. Those are the kinds of numbers that we simply cannot continue to live with.
We all recognise that development of the national networks can unlock regional economic growth and regeneration, particularly in the most disadvantaged areas. Broader economic, safety and accessibility goals generate requirements for development because it is the way that we can fix safety issues, improve the environment and enhance accessibility for pedestrians and cyclists.
The noble Lords, Lord Berkeley, Lord Bradshaw and Lord Rosser, raised concerns about traffic forecasts and the broader appraisal process. It is true that we have well established forecasting and appraisal frameworks that have been subjected to internal and external review over many years, and we continuously update them. It is true that over recent years we have overstated traffic forecasts while in previous years we might have understated them, but it is not a problem of the model; rather, the problem is the inputs into the model. The key drivers that are the inputs into the model—population, GDP and oil prices—we all called wrongly some years ago. If you were to put in the correct drivers, the model would give you traffic forecasts that are within 1.3% of observed traffic. So the model itself, for the narrow task for which it is designed, is a reasonably good one, but of course the inputs have to be right. For that reason we now present a range of forecasts and scenarios. But even when we take the lowest forecast using scenarios that take the most conservative possible views on the various drivers, we can still see very significant pressure on the rail and road networks in the form of increased congestion and crowding. It is crucial to understand that the NPS does not mean that national traffic forecasts are simply used to justify individual developments. Each individual scheme needs to use local models to understand local impacts and will be subject to a full transport business case.
Quite a number of comments were made on traffic forecasts, benefit-cost ratios and those kinds of formulas. I should like to make two comments on them. The first picks up on the issue raised by my noble friend Lord Bradshaw of small time savings being a distortion. There are occasions when small time savings can be extremely useful. For example, a tiny time saving at Reading station may not be of particular value to an individual in a way they can name, but it will give an excellent proxy for whether there is enough platform capacity and whether people can move around the station appropriately without overcrowding and congestion occurring. Small time savings can be very useful measures, but I agree that they have to be used under appropriate circumstances. However, it is important that we dethrone, if that is the word, the use of things like benefit-cost ratios and traffic forecasts. They are not litmus tests that say “go” or “no go” on projects; rather, they are one of the tools that have to be used along with other work, analysis and judgment to decide whether a project is appropriate.
As a politician perhaps I am sometimes guilty of using such measures as a proxy for a more complex explanation—the media certainly do so—and I think we need to make sure that we move away from that. I come from a finance background where this kind of analysis is useful, but it is a tool and its limitations have to be understood. There will be no formula we can devise that does not have limitations. All kinds of appraisals come in to the broader decision, including the impact on regeneration and economic growth, which is now highlighted in a way that it never was historically. When talking about the specifics of these appraisal tools, which was the subject of a lot of the conversation today, we are in the process of engaging with an independent review. In October 2013 we committed to undertake a comprehensive survey of the latest theoretical and empirical evidence for the potential growth impacts of nationally significant infrastructure and programmes of expenditure. This work is under way and is being led by Professor Tony Venables at Oxford University, who may be known to some noble Lords. The department will consider whether any further external scrutiny is needed, so we are conscious of the issue.
The NPS supports a significant and balanced package of improvements across the road and rail networks including—this is set out clearly in the document—improvements in safety, resilience, maintenance and environmental performance, and stresses access for cyclists and pedestrians. Noble Lords will know that many of the programmes we have had in the department, especially the local sustainable transport fund, have been key to supporting local communities and improving cycling and pedestrian facilities, and have had a big impact. It has to be recognised that improvements to the road and rail networks supported by the NPS are accompanied by policies to support sustainable transport.
Some stakeholders have criticised our roads policy as being “predict and provide”—I think the noble Lord, Lord Rosser, was one of those who said this—or an excuse for large-scale—
Lord Rosser
I did not actually say it myself but said it was how it was being described by some, including in the debate today. I think that was fair comment. I did not actually make the statement myself.
Baroness Kramer
I stand corrected. It was a fair comment, and was certainly mentioned today, so I will just take it up. I apologise for misattributing the statement. I assure the House that it is not the case. Government policy on roads is not that outdated approach of predicting and providing for all future traffic growth, irrespective of cost and environmental and social impacts. It is about sensible and sustainable development where there is a strong justification based on the transport business case. Again, that is not just about numbers; it needs judgment as well.
Development of the strategic road network is primarily about upgrading the existing network. Almost 40% of the investment designated for this Parliament and the next is for maintenance. Over 80% of the schemes in the current programme are smart motorways. I hope that gives some clearer understanding.
It is very clear in the NPS that road improvements must be delivered in an environmentally sensitive way and must look to improve environmental performance wherever possible. Much environmental good can be done as part of an investment programme. I will talk a little more about noise in a moment but it is an opportunity for introducing noise-reducing surfaces and sustainable drainage, for eliminating bottlenecks in the system which push up emissions and for ameliorating the worsening air quality that comes of course with congestion.
At the same time as we are in the process of doing that, the Government are committed to decarbonising our roads. Over the past four years and the coming four years, an investment of £1 billion in ultra low-emission vehicles and new fuel efficiency regulation means that we expect to see greenhouse gas emissions from motoring dropping by about 20% in 2030 from present-day levels.
My noble friend Lord Bradshaw raised the issue of noise, to which I said I would return. The NPS is very clear that, for new schemes, scheme promoters must undertake works to mitigate the impacts, for example through low-noise surfacing, noise barriers and earthworks. Low-noise surfacing is now used as a matter of course in all new schemes. Over the next Parliament, as I said, maintenance of the strategic network will lead to about 80% of the network being resurfaced with low-noise surfacing.
Air quality is another issue that was singled out. It is a problem that we cannot tackle with a single measure—it needs a fairly coherent approach. First, I would say that we have seen very significant improvements in road quality, largely because of cleaner cars and cleaner fuels. That has been important. Reducing congestion is an important way to improve air quality. Everyone in the House will be conscious of the exceptional levels of investment that are now going into the railway network, both to upgrade the existing system and to develop the new spine of a high-speed system. Again, because of modal shift, that is a very important way of tackling the air-quality problem. We are obviously putting in very significant funds: we announced just about a week ago the next £500 million for investments related to ultra low-emission vehicles. We are tackling that across a wide range. It is a very difficult issue to deal with in a national-level statement but your Lordships can see from the work that the Government are doing that we are applying a lot of attention to this and that we take the issue exceedingly seriously.
My noble friend Lord Bradshaw raised the issue of maintenance. I assure the House that we are investing very heavily in maintenance, resilience and pothole repairs, both on the strategic road network and on the local road network. As I said, almost 40% of the investment in our strategic roads in this and the next Parliament is for maintenance. For local roads, we are providing councils in England with more than £3.5 billion between 2011 and 2015 to maintain their roads. We are committed to providing just less than £6 billion between 2015 and 2021. Immediately following the flooding crisis, we released £183 million in funds to local councils to deal with the impact that would have had in terms of local road damage.
In addition, in the March 2014 Budget the Government announced a £200 million pothole fund for the 2014-15 financial year, £168 million of which is being made available for councils in England. I say that because obviously the NPS covers just England. That is enough to fix more than 3 million potholes. We have made it really clear that we do not expect this to be a “patch and mend” approach. We have given a very clear message to local authorities that they should also be undertaking planned preventive maintenance, and that when they repair a pothole they should ensure that it is right first time in order not to have to do a call-back, because that is very far from cost-effective, as well as being highly problematic for motorists.
The noble Lord, Lord Berkeley, is concerned that not enough is being done to support modal shift to rail freight. The Government strongly support that modal shift, which is why—in addition to the capacity-enhancement projects that are being supported through the rail investment strategy, which are primarily targeted at improving passenger service but will benefit freight as well—we have also, since 2007, allocated more than £500 million specifically for the development of a strategic rail freight network. The allocation of that money is determined by the rail freight industry so that we can be sure that it is addressing priorities.
Of course, electrification of the network can make a very significant difference. I know to my regret that between 1997 and 2010 we electrified only nine miles of railway. We now have a massive electrification programme under way. That is absolutely crucial but it takes time because we are playing catch-up. I think most of us would say that we wished we were not starting from here.
The incorporation of the SRFIs in this national networks NPS really should strengthen developers’ confidence by confirming parliamentary approval for the policy. I hope that we will see that. However, in relation to modal shift, I must say to the noble Lord, Lord Berkeley, that we are not considering road pricing. That is not on the agenda. I am sorry, I meant my noble friend Lord Bradshaw. I am getting names wrong today; that one was completely unintentional. That is not a project that we are looking at. While I am discussing things that we are not looking at, we are not re-looking at concessionary fares. The protection of concessionary fares for older people is in statute and there is no wish whatever to revisit that.
Lord Bradshaw
I was not suggesting that the concessionary fare scheme should be abolished. The important thing is to ensure that the people who provide the bus services are adequately rewarded. There is scope here for considerable investigation; otherwise, this will be fought out in the courts at great expense and great delay.
Baroness Kramer
That probably has scope for a debate on another day, rather than within the context of the NPS. I do not mean to be cruel. I think it is an important issue but not for today. I wanted to leave no doubt that we are not re-examining concessionary fares.
There has been a lot of discussion of an integrated approach, which is very important and an area where we have to improve and build because historically—not just in transport—a lot of what we do has tended to be looked at in silos. There is a big cultural shift taking place. This document is only part of the range of documents that form our thinking around transport. We have strategic economic plans coming in from the LEPs now, as well as rail and road utilisation strategies, which feed in to the rail investment strategy and the forthcoming road investment strategy. Those give us some real opportunities to start looking at integration. I forget which noble Lord talked about HS2 but that is driving a lot of this rethinking, as we recognise that HS2 creates, particularly in the Midlands and in the north, an opportunity to establish connectivity. That needs be thought of alongside HS2 and not as some entirely separate process. In dealing with strategic economic plans, we recognise the link between infrastructure and economic growth. There are real changes going forward there. East-west links are an inherent part of that—that issue was raised by a number of noble Lords—and I consider it to be crucial.
I have only moments left, so let me finish by saying that the department received more than 5,800 responses to its consultation. Around 5,500 of those were responses to campaigns run by the Campaign to Protect Rural England and the Campaign for Better Transport. I give an assurance that we will look at all the responses, as well as at the feedback that comes from the Transport Select Committee—a crucial document—and from this debate today. We intend to finalise the NPS later this year, in the autumn.
I thank everybody who has participated and ask the House to welcome at least the draft of this document, recognising that there will be a great deal more to add before it becomes final.
Lord Rosser
Before the Minister sits down, may I ask her whether she will look at the contributions that have been made and the questions and points that have been raised? I did not expect to receive answers to all the points that I raised today, but I would be grateful if she would indicate that she will look at what has been said and, where questions and points have been raised that she has not had the time to respond to, that a response will be given in writing.
Baroness Kramer
I shall be absolutely delighted to do so. I thought that I had made that clear as I opened, but let me repeat it as I close.