National Insurance Contributions (Employer Pensions Contributions) Bill

Baroness Kramer Excerpts

Tuesday 24th February 2026 Grand Committee

I am grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Leigh of Hurley, for identifying so clearly in his Amendment 3 the adverse effects on those with a student loan, but this Bill perpetuates other forms of intergenerational unfairness. It is already harder for employers to pay good pensions to youngsters on defined contribution schemes when they are shovelling cash into addressing the deficits on defined benefits schemes for older employees, those schemes being closed to new entrants. It risks removing salary sacrifice as a thing for many employers, which will damage the opportunities for them to get the best staff, because it just becomes too complicated, for reasons that we will dwell on in the next group. It is important that this slim Bill is challenged, because it makes it harder for youngsters to get on. The tail needs to be pinned on the donkey. The Government are not on the side of the youngsters—we need to be saying that—and this Bill proves it.

[Baroness Kramer (LD)]

My Lords, I made my views on this Bill fairly clear at Second Reading, so I am going to try to observe the discipline of not repeating my Second Reading speech. I am sure that I will not be absolutely 100% on that, but I am going to try.

I want to look first at this group of amendments. Amendments 1, 2, 14 and 15 put forward by the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, are particularly relevant because I do not think that at Second Reading we came away with a clear understanding that basic rate taxpayers were going to be significantly caught by the changes in this Bill. The focus on higher earners— I agree very much that we need “higher earners” to be properly defined—leaves us with a mistaken impression. I hope very much that the Government will provide some degree of clarity—the noble Baroness, Lady Coffey, called for the evidence—on who is impacted and how they are impacted. We ought to have that information in front of us. I will be troubled if this captures people on basic rate tax, given the pressures that they already face.

I would like to focus much more strongly on Amendments 3 and 16, because I do not think that at any point at Second Reading we addressed the impact on graduates repaying student loans and the impact on their take-home pay. I want to thank a gentleman called Tim Camfield who did some calculations and forwarded them to me because, as I worked through his calculations, it seemed to me that he had to be right. He wrote in the context of reading a response from the OBR to what I understand was an FOI in which it said that it did not believe that the Bill had any impact on student loans. It seems to me that very evidently it does and we need to know that. If the Government do not intend it and are going to have a workaround that will prevent it, then frankly we need to know that as well.

We all know that students have been under extraordinary pressure and that the Government openly have frozen the starting repayment threshold, but this, in effect, if Tim Camfield and others are right, would be a backdoor, further blow to this group. Whenever people say “student loans” and you are a Liberal Democrat, it is important to say—and I do not want to give a speech on our new policy—that my party recognises its role in creating the student loan repayment scheme. But frankly, the scheme is so changed, and graduates are under such pressure, that we now recognise that it is broken. I will not go through our policies—they are extensive—to completely reform that system.

I look now to the Minister to give us some real clarity, both on who is impacted and how extensively—how a normal person might read that as being an ordinary worker on a relatively modest income, rather than just a higher earner—and on the issue of student loans. I have some information on the distributional analysis that I will use in group 3 but, on the principle of trying not to repeat myself constantly, I will wait until then.

[Lord Leigh of Hurley (Con)]

My Lords, prompted as I am by my noble friend Lord Mackinlay, may I just take a moment to remind the Committee that I am a member by qualification of the Chartered Institute of Taxation and have received very helpful briefings from it?

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[Lord Davies of Brixton (Lab)]

Yes; I thank the noble Lord for his advice. As I said, I have operated the system myself, and so he is really just making my point: the structures are there to deal with multiple employments. It is not being introduced to the issue by this particular measure. Obviously it would be more complicated with this measure—I accept that, and I look forward to my noble friend the Minister’s response on that issue—but it is not a new issue.

[Baroness Kramer (LD)]

My Lords, as with the previous group, the noble Lord, Lord Davies of Brixton, made a comment on what he thought was Lib Dem policy; it might be—I am just not sure. We have discussed simply kicking out all this complexity and having a flat rate of relief on pensions. After listening to the last debate, I think that that has probably accumulated a lot of votes from around this Room, because the complexity that we have had described under this group of amendments is absolutely extraordinary. The noble Baroness, Lady Altmann, referred to the banana skins, and I think the noble Lord, Lord Leigh, talked about it being a nightmare. I am troubled that all of this is being left to consultation with the industry and to future regulation and future guidance, as if it can all be absolutely sorted with a bit of quiet attention. But we have heard the problems of how you deal with the many cases where people have multiple employers.

The noble Lord, Lord Mackinlay, made it clear that it is a relatively small handful of people who at present have to be dealt with through the Department of Work and Pensions to make sure that there is not a complexity. However, this would now apply to all kinds of people across a very wide range of activities and income. Trying to deal with the complexity of all these measures and delaying that has got us very disturbed. It is a bad principle for legislation. It is not that there is not a role for regulation and guidance, but that essentially should just be doing the finesse on a policy that has been clarified, whether it is in primary legislation, through evidence put before Parliament or through Statements made by the Ministers.

I think we have a real concern that this is going to turn out to be absolutely unworkable. The consequences of that, both for public finances and for individual decisions made by people, probably means that this legislation will collapse at some point. We ask the Minister to go back to the department and make it clear that clarity is absolutely necessary. If there are problems here that can never be reasonably and sensibly resolved, they should be recognised at this stage.

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[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I am grateful to the noble Lord for his further thoughts. The carryover feature—

[Baroness Kramer (LD)]

I do not want to be problematic here, but I wonder whether the Minister can understand that we are looking at a very different Bill and very different implications if the £2,000 contribution limit is per individual across a range of employments, or per job, and perhaps they have three or four. It is a fundamental difference, and while the details of how things would be done in the future and the operational issues may well have to wait for regulation, guidance and consultation, it seems to me that that core issue defines this Bill, and we should know that before we complete its passage.

[Lord Livermore]

Obviously, I hear what the noble Baroness says.

The carryover feature of the pensions annual allowance, referenced in the justification for the amendments tabled by the noble Lord, Lord Fuller, sets the maximum amount of tax-relieved pension savings an individual can build up in a tax year without triggering a tax charge, which for most people is £60,000. The carryover feature is intended to accommodate one-off irregular spikes in pension saving or defined benefit accrual. The annual allowance carry-forward requires individuals to hold or obtain accurate records to track usage and eligibility and is not intended for day-to-day retirement planning. The Government do not consider it suitable to introduce a similar mechanism in the context of the cap on national insurance contribution-free pension saving in the Bill.

Before the detailed regulations that support the introduction of this change are finalised, HMRC will work closely with employers, payroll providers and software developers to ensure the policy operates smoothly for businesses and individuals. This engagement is not a formality. It is a necessary step to ensure that we collaboratively identify the best and most workable way to apply the £2,000 national insurance contributions-free limit, minimise administrative burdens and avoid unintended consequences, particularly for those whose earnings are spread across more than one employment.

Taking the time to engage properly and test implementation options is the best way to ensure that the policy works as intended from the outset. That is why the Government have committed sufficient time to work with stakeholders, up to and including the preparation of the important guidance for operation that the noble Lord, Lord Fuller, has raised in Amendment 29A.

On Amendment 29A, which proposes a reporting provision on the administrative cost borne by employers, I note that, upon the introduction of the Bill to Parliament, a tax information and impact note was published by the Government, setting out the impact of this policy’s operationalisation on employees and their employers. Supporting those who will implement this change within their organisations is vital, but we do not agree that that support should take the form of additional reporting requirements.

In light of all the points I have made, I respectfully ask noble Lords not to press their amendments.

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[Baroness Altmann (Non-Afl)]

I will speak in support of my Amendment 9, as well as the amendments to which I have added my name, Amendments 7 and 20.

I have proposed my amendment so that—if we are to go through this exercise, which I hope we will not—no basic rate taxpayers would be likely to be caught by the measure. If the minimum contribution on which they can have national insurance relief is £10,000 a year, they are unlikely to be caught, unless they get a very large bonus. I hope that we will be able to deal with some of these issues.

The reason for suggesting a £10,000 per year pension contribution is based on the minimum amount that the very top earners are able to contribute to pensions. Under the tapered annual allowance, for example, £10,000 seems considered to be, if you like, an acceptable level of pension that is not egregious in some way.

My preference would be that, if we are to go down the route of capping the national insurance reliefs available to anyone who is paying into a pension, we do that in the way that I have just suggested, which is the same as one does with tax relief. If you pay in more than £60,000 a year, you do not get any extra tax relief; but if you pay in, for example, more than £10,000 a year, you do not get any national insurance relief on the amounts on top of that. That would be so much simpler.

I stress to the Committee that I believe that the Government and the Minister have not realised the complexity—the sheer scale of the administrative tasks—that will be involved if the Bill proceeds as it is. I liked the idea suggested by my noble friend Lord Leigh to put this on hold and do the work that we are trying to get the Government to do straight after the Bill passes before we finish and finalise the legislation, so that we have a better idea of what we are doing.

I also have a lot of sympathy with the approach that the noble Lord, Lord de Clifford, has outlined. We all seem to be trying to make the Bill operate in practice in a rather less difficult, complicated and costly administrative manner. The amendments tabled by the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, to which I added my name, on £5,000 are just another way of trying to square this circle. I look forward to hearing the Minister’s thoughts.

I must confess that the idea of inflation linking this limit, if we were to get it, each year would probably just add to the complexity of an already incredibly complex set of changes that we are thinking of making to the Bill. We would not know, from one year to the next, what the new limit will be, because it will not be £2,000 or £10,000—I hope we will not end up there. I hope the Minister understands the spirit in which I am trying to suggest the £10,000 figure and the people I am trying to help: the basic rate taxpayers. I really do fear that they will have a much worse pension outcome if this goes ahead.

[Baroness Kramer (LD)]

My Lords, this is the group of amendments on which I have been the most focused. I will not repeat my Second Reading speech, in which I talked about the importance of growing pension savings to fuel the growth agenda, but the Government must realise that this policy just does not align with that. However, I hope that the Government are beginning to understand that life today is long and it is not easy to put aside enough from the working years to achieve a decent retirement without depending on the state. According to the Resolution Foundation, changes made under the Bill will hit at least half of those who use salary sacrifice, affecting a large number and a wide range of households.

Different noble Lords, as we see in the amendments here, have proposed different increases to the contributions limit. Amendments 7, 10, 11, 20, 22 and 23 are in my name, and I thank the noble Baroness, Lady Altmann, and the noble Lord, Lord Londesborough, for signing some of them. The core of my amendments would increase the contributions limit from £2,000 to £5,000, preferably with a further annual increase linked to RPI. I confess that there is not a lot of science behind my choice of £5,000, but running it past people who deal with pensions, I began to think I had hit a sweet spot with that figure. The response was that it would support people making the rather difficult choice of what to do with their money and provide a little more of an incentive to save in a pension rather than to spend.

As part of this process, my colleagues in the other place were able to obtain some research from the Commons Library, using PolicyEngine and its interactive dashboard. That work is not definitive but it provides a useful picture of the distributional effects of raising the contribution limit. An uplift of £5,000 would give the greatest gains to the two top income deciles—we would all expect that. But just a shave behind those two deciles, the next highest gainers are the second decile, which is not, I expect, the result that the Government would have predicted. This group would have within it a cohort of young people, probably in their early to mid-20s, perhaps one pay rise into their careers, still willing to live in shared accommodation and to live quite frugally, and not yet trying to pay off student loans, get a mortgage or support children. Surely this is the group that any Government should target to get into saving for a pension in a big way.

Early investment enables a pension pot to grow, but it is a narrow window. As people move into the age of families and mortgages, they cut or even stop pension savings, and women are even more affected if they reduce work to care for children. Only later in life do people return to significant savings and by then it is very late in the day. Frankly, we should make sure that they also have strong incentives to save at this point in their lives to avoid sharp drops in living standards in old age. I think the Government have looked at earners as if they belong to fixed blocks: low earners, middle earners and high earners. In reality, most people’s profiles as earners and savers change as they go through life, and the incentives therefore have to be shaped to maximise and to meet that profile.

Some of my amendments would increase the £5,000 contribution limit annually by RPI. The noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, discussed increasing the £2,000 limit by CPI. I know that the noble Baroness, Lady Altmann, considers this an additional complication but, frankly, we have to tackle this issue of frozen thresholds, which in eras of inflation have just such a negative impact.

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[Baroness Kramer (LD)]

My Lords, as we discussed at Second Reading, the Federation of Small Businesses has warned that the impact of the Bill could meaningfully disadvantage small businesses. In a way, I look at social enterprises and charities as, essentially, a subset of the SME sector. Big businesses can often devise ways and perks to reward people that are simply not available to SMEs, so they can dampen the impact of the Bill on their workforces and widen that competitive gap.

As a consequence of that, I thank the noble Lord, Lord de Clifford, for signing Amendment 27 in my name, and the noble Lord, Lord Londesborough, for saying that he would have signed it. Frankly, when these noble Lords give warnings on what will happen and what is happening in the small business sector, I really hope that the Government are listening because, unfortunately for our economy, their track record has a real history of being correct, and those warnings need to be taken seriously.

As other noble Lords have said, SMEs are already under pressure. I am not going to repeat the saga of the burdens on them, but we have to recognise that this is a time when we absolutely need small businesses to accelerate their hiring, especially of young people, and make serious investment in productivity and growth. Once again, this is another measure where I can see no alignment between the Bill and the Government’s industrial strategy or growth policy. It seems to pull in completely the wrong direction.

Amendments 12 and 24 would straightforwardly exempt SMEs. Amendment 27 in my name would give the Government a chance to make their case, in a sense, because it would require a detailed review within 12 months of the Act being signed, which is obviously long before the Act will come into force. The review would target the two issues that we have said are so critical—SME recruitment and retention—and would also look at this matter in the context of the cumulative impact, particularly of NICs changes since this is a NICs Bill. It seems wise to encompass a look at these two NICs changes as being linked and entangled in the way they impact on small businesses.

I do not want to take up much more of the Committee’s time, but it is important to stress that this is not the time for uninformed decision-making; that has been echoed through group after group of amendments. I am not rejecting the other amendments but Amendment 27 would be a relatively modest way for the Government at least to do something that begins to put evidence before Ministers and Parliament.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

My Lords, I am grateful to all noble Lords who have spoken in this debate. First, I will address Amendments 18 and 24 in the names of the noble Baronesses, Lady Neville-Rolfe and Lady Altmann, and the noble Lord, Lord Altrincham, which would exempt small and medium-sized enterprises, charities and social enterprises from the Bill.

The Government agree on the importance of supporting small businesses and ensuring that they are not unduly impacted by these changes. Small and medium-sized enterprises are far less likely to offer pension salary sacrifice than larger businesses. According to Nest Insight, around 33% of small businesses offer pension salary sacrifice to their employees, compared with 83% of large businesses. In addition, employees of small and medium-sized enterprises are far less likely to have contributions exceeding the £2,000 cap; only 10% of employees in SMEs have pension contributions through salary sacrifice exceeding the cap. Exempting small and medium-sized enterprises in the way suggested by the amendment would therefore introduce significant additional complexity into the tax system and would be disproportionate given the limited impact that this policy is expected to have on these businesses. The Government are engaging with employers and other industry stakeholders ahead of these changes coming in.

Similarly, Amendments 26 and 27 in the names of the noble Baronesses, Lady Neville-Rolfe and Lady Kramer, and the noble Lords, Lord Altrincham, Lord Londesborough and Lord de Clifford, would require a review of the impact of the Act on small and medium-sized enterprises. As I have already said, the Government agree about the importance of supporting small businesses. The changes in the Bill will mainly impact larger employers, which are much more likely to use salary sacrifice and to have employees who are contributing above the £2,000 cap.

More widely, the Government are delivering the most comprehensive package of support for small and medium-sized businesses in a generation through the small business strategy, unlocking billions of pounds in finance to support businesses to invest and removing unnecessary red tape. Ahead of the cap coming into operation, the Government will continue to work closely with employers, payroll administrators and other stakeholders to ensure that the changes are implemented in the least burdensome way for businesses of all sizes currently using salary sacrifice.

In the light of the points I have made, I respectfully ask noble Lords to withdraw or not press their amendments.

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Moved by

[Baroness Kramer]

28: After Clause 2, insert the following new Clause—
“Calculation and publication of lifetime pension values(1) The Secretary of State must calculate and publish illustrative projections of the lifetime value of pension savings before and after the changes made by this Act.(2) For the purposes of this section, “lifetime value” means the total pension income an individual is expected to receive over their lifetime.(3) Projections must—(a) be based on clearly stated assumptions, and(b) include examples covering a range of income levels and pension entitlements.”Member’s explanatory statement
This amendment seeks to require the publication of illustrative lifetime pension outcomes.

[Baroness Kramer (LD)]

My Lords, I will try to be speedy. The amendments in this group in various ways would require that the work to assess the impact of the Bill on pension savings and pension incomes is done and put before Parliament. My Amendment 28 would make this a responsibility of the Government. Amendments 29 and 30 in the names of the noble Baronesses, Lady Altmann and Lady Neville-Rolfe, would require an independent review. These three amendments have different degrees of detail and emphasis, but I suspect they can easily be redrafted to cover all the key elements.

It seems to me that behind all these amendments sits a basic question: did the Government do their homework? If they had, they could pretty much hand us everything we have requested tomorrow morning. I fear that this has been another off-the-hoof policy where the Government poorly understand the consequences, and I think that needs to be exposed and dealt with. It is true that implementation of the policy is not until 2029, probably the other side of another general election, but, frankly, that is not an excuse for doing this wrong, for not having the evidence and for not making it available. That is what I think every amendment in this group seeks to achieve in a different way. I beg to move.

[Lord Altrincham (Con)]

My Lords, Amendment 30 has a simple purpose: to ensure that before the Act is commenced there is an independent review of its impact on pensions adequacy—which we have been talking about again and again through this Committee—saving behaviour and on those repaying student loans, and that Parliament must see the findings before the provisions take effect.

Pensions adequacy is one of the central long-term economic challenges facing this country, and under the Government it is set to get far worse. The Institute for Fiscal Studies’ report Adequacy of Future Retirement Incomes: New Evidence for Private Sector Employees could not be clearer. On current trends, around four in 10 private sector employees saving into defined contribution schemes are projected to undershoot the Pension Commission’s replacement rate targets. Even using a far more modest minimum living standard benchmark, a substantial minority are not on track to reach it.

The IFS also makes a crucial point that, since the Pensions Commission report 20 years ago, lower returns on saving and longer life expectancy mean that the savings rates required to hit adequacy benchmarks are higher than previously thought. In other words, the adequacy challenge has intensified, not diminished. Yet what are the Government doing in the Bill? They are altering one of the key mechanisms through which many working people build their retirement savings without any independent assessment of what that will mean for adequacy.

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[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

My Lords, I am grateful to all noble Lords for their contributions to this debate.

I turn first to Amendment 28, tabled by the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, which seeks the publication of illustrative projections of lifetime pension saving values before and after this change. The Government do not agree that this amendment is necessary to provide the required information on personal pension saving outcomes. The impacts of the measures in the Bill, including on employees and employers, are already set out in the tax information and impact note published alongside the Bill’s introduction.

Additionally, the Government published a policy costing note, which includes detail on the tax base and static costing as well as a summary of the behavioural responses expected by individuals and employers. The Office for Budget Responsibility has set out impacts in its economic and fiscal outlook, making it clear that it does not expect a material impact on savings behaviour as a result of the tax changes made in the Budget. Similarly, there are already a number of existing tools and services that individuals can use to understand their personal financial position and estimate their potential retirement income.

Amendments 29 and 30, tabled by the noble Baronesses, Lady Altmann and Lady Neville-Rolfe, and the noble Lords, Lord Altrincham and Lord de Clifford, would require the Government to take advice examining the impact of this change on employers, pension adequacy and workers’ pay. They also seek to make commencement of the Act conditional on the publication of an independent review of its effects, including on pension adequacy. The impacts of this measure have already been set out across the range of usual publications for changes to national insurance; these include the published tax information and impact note and policy costings note, as well as the Office for Budget Responsibility’s economic and fiscal outlook.

These amendments raise a wider point about the role of salary sacrifice in the pension salary saving system, particularly in relation to incentivising saving and improving pension adequacy. It is important to place this measure in context. Salary sacrifice existed in the 2000s and early 2010s, yet, during this period, there were falls in private sector pension saving. The key factor that has led to an increase in saving in recent years, as many noble Lords have noted in this debate, is automatic enrolment. As a result of automatic enrolment, more than 22 million workers across the UK are now saving each month.

Although all of us here share a commitment to improving pension adequacy, many groups at higher risk of under-saving—including the self-employed, low earners and women—are not the most likely to benefit from salary sacrifice. Only one in five self-employed people save into a pension, but they are entirely excluded from salary sacrifice. Low earners are most likely not to be saving, but higher earners are more likely to be using salary sacrifice. Many women are under-saving for retirement, but many more men use pension salary sacrifice.

The pensions tax relief system remains hugely generous, and there remain significant incentives to save into a pension. The £70 billion of income tax and national insurance contribution relief that the Government currently provide on pensions each year will be entirely unaffected by these changes.

Given the points I have made, I respectfully ask noble Lords to withdraw or not press their amendments.

[Baroness Kramer (LD)]

I beg leave to withdraw my amendment.

Amendment 28 withdrawn.

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[Baroness Neville-Rolfe (Con)]

My Lords, my amendment in this group seeks to make the commencement of this Act conditional upon the publication of an independent review of its impact on employers.

The Government’s decision to cap national insurance relief on salary sacrifice pension contributions at £2,000 per year has been presented as a measure targeted at higher earners, but the reality, as those of us who have spoken to businesses up and down the country know, is rather more complicated than that. This is not simply a matter of adjusting the tax affairs of a few well-paid executives. This measure hits employers directly and in ways that Ministers have not thus far adequately costed or explained. For small and medium-sized enterprises in particular, the costs are not trivial. Many have structured their entire remuneration and pensions offerings around salary sacrifice arrangements. They have done so because it is administratively straightforward, it benefits their staff, and it has had the backing of the previous Government as a sensible way to encourage workplace pension saving. Those businesses now face not only higher employer national insurance costs but also the compliance burden of unpicking arrangements that may have been in place for years.

Let us be plain about what this means for a small business. We are talking about firms with perhaps 20 or 30 staff, businesses that do not have large HR departments or in-house tax teams. They will need to review every employment contract, revisit their payroll systems and, in many cases, seek professional advice to understand their new obligations. What is particularly troubling is that we have not seen from the Government anything approaching a comprehensive assessment of these impacts. We know that HMRC consulted last year, but it got a dusty answer. The OBR has produced some high-level revenue estimates, which do not reassure us, and we know from the Treasury note that it expects this measure to raise several billion pounds by the end of the Parliament. But what we have not seen, and what employers and employees alike are entitled to expect, is a proper independent analysis of what this means in practice, especially for SMEs and middle-income employees.

There has been no serious attempt to model the indirect costs, the effect on employer pension contributions, the likelihood that firms will scale back their own contributions to compensate for higher tax costs, or the impact on workforce retention where salary sacrifice has been used as a recruitment and benefits tool. The OBR itself has acknowledged significant uncertainty in its projections, noting that revenue yields are highly sensitive to behavioural change—a very important point—and yet the Government press ahead without the evidence base one would expect for a measure of this scale.

My concern—which is shared by a range of voices in the pensions industry and in business groups and among those who have looked carefully at the measure— is that, in restricting salary sacrifice without proper analysis, the Government risk undermining the very pension-saving behaviours they claim in other contexts to support. As the ABI has put it, savers and the pension system need stability. What we should not be doing is swapping pension stability for short-term revenue raisers.

The Minister has cited a number of statistics on the numbers whom HMT anticipates will be affected, but these fail to recognise that the Government have almost no idea of how employers and, therefore, employees would respond and be affected by those changes. As I have already mentioned, the OBR has said that there is a high level of uncertainty over the size of the behavioural response. If an employer stops offering a salary sacrifice because of the compliance costs and complexity, as many of them have warned they will, then every one of their employees will be affected. So how can the Minister say that 74% of basic rate taxpayers will be left unaffected when HMT has no idea how the organisations employing them will react to the Bill? Indeed, the detail is still unclear. The point many noble Lords have raised stands: the Bill brings a great deal of uncertainty, and the Treasury does not understand the wider effects of what it is proposing—thus my wish to delay commencement until we have a clearer view.

I welcome Amendment 32 in the name of the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, which references the OBR’s supplementary forecasts. I do not want to steal her thunder, but the issues this forecast raises are numerous. Of particular concern are the behavioural changes that it anticipates. The OBR estimates that behaviour reduces the 2030-31 yield by around 48% compared with the static figure. Employers are assumed to redirect pay growth into employer contributions, employees are assumed to shift into relief at source or net pay arrangements, and there are additional pass-through effects into wages and profits. In other words, nearly half the static yield depends on assumptions about how employers and employees respond. The options open to employees and employers are numerous, and they have three years to think about it.

Another serious concern highlighted is that HMRC does not hold comprehensive data on salary sacrifice usage. As we understand it, the modelling used by the OBR relies heavily on ASHE survey data and historic APSS 107 returns to estimate bonus sacrifice behaviour. The OBR therefore assigns this measure a medium-high uncertainty rating with particular uncertainty around behavioural responses and the size of the bonus sacrifice base. This policy is uncertain. How will it affect savings, how will it affect behaviour and, significantly, how much will it raise and for how long?

I know others may have questions for the Minister, but the new arrangements come into operation in 2029-30 and, as we have all been saying, there is time for more questions to be asked and answered and for more work to be done. I hope the Minister will look at these various amendments positively. I thank the Deputy Chairman for his clarification on timing, and I beg to move.

[Baroness Kramer (LD)]

My Lords, the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, has relieved me of the burden of trying to explain the primary clause within my amendment, which would require a formal review and report on the OBR supplementary forecast information release. As she said, this came out on 5 February, I understand in response to an FoI request, which, frankly, is no way to provide information to Parliament. As she said, it concludes that behavioural response to the measure—and that is key to the impact that this Bill will have—is highly uncertain. The further detail that she provided is so similar to what I would have provided that I am not going to repeat it. I thank the noble Lord, Lord de Clifford, for also signing this.

The other part of the review would cover the operational remuneration arrangements and the impact on pension adequacy and salaries. I know the Minister thought he covered this issue, but I think he could tell that in the Room uncertainty continues. Further clarification is needed around this issue because employers are going to be looking for that. This is an opportunity to provide it.

I have to say that I do not think I have ever seen an OBR report that is so filled with the word “uncertainty”. Obviously, it stands behind what it has written, but it does not feel like a report that has been written with a great deal of confidence. That confidence needs to be in place for Parliament to act on legislation.

[Lord de Clifford (CB)]

I have the pleasure of supporting the amendment from the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer. At Second Reading, I raised behavioural change and the OBR’s forecast about the drop in income is essential. Employers will look to find the most tax efficient way to make pension payments, and therefore we need the OBR to make sure that it accounts for these payments. As an employer, although it will increase administration, if there is a saving to be made, we will look for opportunities to pay pension payments in alternative ways. We covered that earlier, and the Minister gave a little reassurance that employer pension contributions may be acceptable and will not be counted as a salary sacrifice. As an employer, that would be welcome.