Economy: Purchasing Managers’ Index
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Lord Bates
I absolutely agree with the first part of the noble Lord’s question. I am sure it is noted on his Front Bench. We have been clear that we believe the best way forward for manufacturing—in fact, for the whole economy—is to leave the European Union with a deal, and that is what the Prime Minister is working towards.
Baroness Kramer (LD)
My Lords, I fear that some of your Lordships, and perhaps the Minister, must have missed out some of the sentences in Markit’s report on the PMI. It said that, increasingly,
“Companies stepped up production to build-up inventories”,
of,
“both purchases and finished products”,
in advance of Brexit—in other words, stockpiling. It later says that business sentiment “remained subdued” looking ahead, amid persistent Brexit concerns. The CBI this morning confirmed its view that the economy is down 1% to 2% from where it would have been without Brexit. Do the Government believe that underestimating the issues facing industry in any way helps industry to handle this Brexit crisis?
Lord Bates
I do not dispute that there are headwinds and that uncertainty is bad for business, which is why we want to resolve matters and move forward. However, one of the points about the purchasing managers’ index is that it asks people what their future intentions are, so if people had been “stockpiling” from the beginning of the year, that would not explain why they are now saying that they believe that they will buy more goods and are more positive about the future outlook. So that is not necessarily the right way to read the numbers.
UK Convergence Programme
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The Minister of State, Department for International Development (Lord Bates) (Con)
My Lords, the Government have a legal requirement to give the European Commission an update of the UK’s economic and budgetary position as part of our convergence programme. Given our decision to leave the European Union, some Members may find it odd that we are debating the UK’s convergence programme here today, but it is right to do so, because we continue to exercise our full membership of the EU until the point of our exit and because doing so is a legal requirement and one that we must therefore take seriously.
The document before us may look familiar. This is because substantial parts of its content are drawn from the Autumn Budget report and the OBR’s most recent economic and fiscal outlook. It is the content, not the convergence programme itself, that requires the approval of the House today.
I remind the House that although the UK participates in the stability and growth pact, which requires convergence programmes to be submitted, by virtue of our protocol to the treaty opting out of the euro we are required only to “endeavour to avoid” excessive deficits. The UK cannot be subject to any action or sanctions as a result of our participation.
Let me provide a brief overview of the information we will set out in the UK’s convergence programme. Noble Lords should note that this does not represent new information; rather, it captures the Government’s assessment of the UK’s medium-term economic and budgetary position, as we set out in the Autumn Budget and again in the Spring Statement.
The UK economy has been growing for nine consecutive years, with the longest unbroken quarterly growth run of any G7 economy. It has added 3.6 million jobs since 2010, has almost halved youth unemployment and has seen female participation in the workforce increase to record levels. The economy is now delivering the fastest rate of regular wage growth in over a decade. Despite the slower global economy, the OBR expects Britain to continue to grow in every year of the forecast period: at 1.2% this year, 1.4% in 2020 and 1.6% in each of the final three years. This represents cumulative nominal growth over the next five years that is slightly higher than the Budget forecast. The OBR forecasts 600,000 more jobs in our economy by 2023. There is positive news on pay too, with the OBR revising wage growth up to 3% or higher in every year.
The Government have made significant progress since 2010 in reducing the deficit, and in 2016-17 reduced the Maastricht treaty-defined deficit below the EU’s 3% limit for the first time since the financial crisis. The OBR forecasts it to fall below 2% of GDP in 2018-19 and below 1% in the final two years of the forecast period. At the Spring Statement, the OBR forecast that public sector net borrowing is expected to be £22.8 billion this year—£3 billion lower than forecast in November and £130 billion lower than in 2009-10.
We remain on track to meet both our fiscal targets early, with the cyclically adjusted deficit at 1.3% next year, falling to just 0.5% by 2023-24, and with headroom against our fiscal mandate in 2020-21 increasing from £15.4 billion at the Autumn Budget to £26.6 billion at the Spring Statement.
Less borrowing means less debt, which is now lower in every year of the forecast period than at the Budget, falling to 82.2% of GDP next year, then 79%, 74.9%, 74% and finally 73% in 2023-24. Our national debt is falling substantially for the first time in a generation.
While committed to getting debt falling, the Budget took a balanced approach to government spending, supporting households and businesses in the near term and investing in the UK’s economic potential in the medium term. We have made over £150 billion of new spending commitments since 2016, and the Chancellor announced in the Budget that the long but necessary squeeze on current public spending would come to an end at the upcoming spending review, setting out an indicative five-year path of 1.2% per annum real-terms increases in day-to-day spending on public services compared with real-terms cuts of 3% per annum at spending review 2010 and planned cuts of 1.3% in real terms per annum at spending review 2015.
We made our biggest choice on public spending to put the NHS first, in line with the Prime Minister’s announcement of £34 billion of additional funding per year by the end of the period—the single largest cash commitment ever made by a peacetime British Government—to support our long-term plan for the NHS. It will deliver improved cancer and mental healthcare, a transformation of GP services, more doctors, more nurses, and better outcomes for patients.
Following the House’s approval of the economic and budgetary assessment that forms the basis of the convergence programme, the Government will submit the convergence programme to the Council of the European Union and the European Commission. The submission of convergence programmes by non-euro area member states and stability programmes by euro area member states also provides a useful framework for co-ordinating fiscal policies. A degree of fiscal policy co-ordination across countries can be beneficial to ensuring a stable global economy, which is in the UK’s national interest. The UK has always taken part in international mechanisms for policy co-ordination, such as the G7, G20 and OECD.
Although we are leaving the EU, we will of course continue to have a deep interest in the economic stability and prosperity of our European friends and neighbours. So we will continue to play our part in this process while we remain subject to the acquis, and in other international policy co-ordination processes once we have left the EU.
The Government are committed to ensuring that we act in full accordance with Section 5 of the European Communities (Amendment) Act 1993, and that this House approves the economic and budgetary assessment that forms the basis of the convergence programme, which I commend to the House.
Baroness Kramer (LD)
My goodness. I thank the Minister for his statement. I think we can all agree that this is a bit of a paper exercise, as the UK is not a member of the euro. Therefore, no matter how we perform on our structural deficit, there are no enforcement measures that the EU or any part of it can take against the UK. He is also absolutely right that there is nothing new in any of these numbers; they are basically a cut and paste from the last Budget and the OBR forecast. The forecast is slightly differently defined from our deficit numbers, but the cyclically adjusted treaty deficit number actually rises slightly this year, so technically we are actually going into the excessive debt procedure, although probably only briefly. Again, that has no particular consequences.
I find this, like many other debates on the economy, to be utterly surreal, because we will have no idea how the economy will look until Brexit is sorted out. That is so fundamental to creating the terms on which we have to look forward. All that we know is that every forecast that HMT has done of the medium term, in any Brexit scenario, shows us to be significantly worse off than if we had remained in the EU. That includes getting absolutely wonderful and amazing free-trade deals all over the place.
Because we have had so many debates on this issue, I am sure that the House will not mind if I am brief and will make just a few points. First, while I share the Government’s pleasure in our good employment numbers, I repeat that it is a lagging indicator, and I wish that HMT would take that on board. But rather more troubling, a recent piece of work by Aston University suggests that established businesses have been shedding employees in significant numbers for some time and that the slack has been taken up by start-ups.
I am delighted with start-ups, but we are all well aware that a start-up is far more volatile, and if we go into any period of recession or rough water it is exactly that start-up arena that will take some of the harshest blows. I had not anticipated that there was a threat to our employment numbers, but it looks to me as if we potentially have something here that the Government should take a very close look at.
Secondly, I want to raise the question of the very sharp drop in business investment. I want to make sure that we do not confuse business investment with oligarchs buying luxury properties in our major urban areas. That pumps the numbers up, but it is not the kind of investment that anybody in this House is particularly keen to see, particularly as it deprives local people of housing opportunities.
Government Debt
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Lord Bates
Certainly, the Government see merit in repaying debt; we pay interest rates of about £50 billion a year on debt, so there is a good rationale for trying to do that. However, we need to balance our approach. Primarily, we seek to stop that debt level increasing by bringing it down as a percentage of GDP from around 85% to 73% at the end of the forecast period, but we need to go further on that.
Baroness Kramer (LD)
My Lords, do the Government now understand that including borrowing for investment into infrastructure in the deficit number is not only intellectually flawed but has constrained growth in this country by limiting the number of projects in which we can invest, at a time when interest rates have been exceptionally low and a great deal more could have been done to catch up on the infrastructure backlog?
Lord Bates
I do not see how one can take it out of that figure. If it is public expenditure on infrastructure, it is government debt, so we need to reflect that in the numbers.
Retailers: Business Rates
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Lord Bates
We have looked at that area, and the Select Committee on Housing, Communities and Local Government is looking at this precise time to see what can be done. We have to remember that options such as an online sales tax would hit many high street stores, because they are hybrid business models that have a physical presence but also an online business.
Baroness Kramer (LD)
My Lords, does the Minister accept that taxing just the land value of commercial sites would achieve many of the goals that other questioners have put forward? It would encourage small firms to take on new technology and to expand, and would reduce the business rates for many, with the consequence that they would face a more level playing field with the online players.
Lord Bates
The land value option was looked at in the review in 2016, which I talked about earlier. The review concluded that a land value tax would also result in anomalies and problems. Under the business rates system that we have at the moment, it is easy to collect and easy to understand the calculation, which is why we are sticking with it at the moment.
Access to Cash
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Lord Bates
I am happy to undertake to take that up with the Economic Secretary to the Treasury, who is responsible for retail banking, as well as the Financial Conduct Authority. I know that significant progress has been made on that, and I will write to the noble Lord.
Baroness Kramer (LD)
My Lords, nearly 40% of payments are still in cash. Does the Minister recognise that although the payments regulator cites post offices as places where one can get cash, they tend to close at 4 pm or 5 pm? People need access, and 1 kilometre is far too far away to keep any local community functional in the way that it needs to be.
Lord Bates
There are limitations that arise from the changes in the way that people access their financial services and cash. We are seeing contactless overtaking debit cards as a way of payment. These changes are happening, but it is important that the regulator and the Government work together with the industry to ensure that people continue to have the access they need to these important cash services.
National Insurance Contributions Holiday
Baroness Kramer Excerpts(5 years, 1 month ago)
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Baroness Kramer (LD)
My Lords, setting aside the irony that this is a unfulfilled manifesto commitment, does the Minister recognise that small businesses, which are often the best place for someone from a disadvantaged community to start work because of the support available, often find it costly to take on someone who needs that kind of additional support? For those firms, this critical amount of a one-year holiday from national insurance contributions, which might not matter to a big company, is absolutely pivotal in making it possible for them to take on this extra load. Therefore, will he push for this element of the manifesto to be carried through?
Lord Bates
The noble Baroness will recall that, when we were in coalition Government, we introduced the employment allowance, which effectively said that the first £3,000 of national insurance contributions for small businesses did not apply. We have also abolished national insurance for those on apprenticeships under the age of 25 and abolished national insurance for those under the age of 21. We are doing a significant amount in this area, but I accept that we need to do more.
Financial Services (Miscellaneous) (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019
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Baroness Kramer (LD)
My Lords, I have no issues with the first of these SIs. It is another that deals with errors and omissions; I suspect we will see quite a number of them. I do have serious concerns about the second SI, but not with its content or the fact that we need it if we are to take the step of leaving with no deal. I want to understand what happens to the financial services industry as a consequence. Perhaps the Minister can help me with this. He will know that I have been involved, from the earliest days, with the development of fintechs in the UK. An example is crowdfunders, whether they are US ones that have created a core European subsidiary in the UK, or home-grown ones, of which we have quite a few. We have been a magnet particularly for young people across Europe with a tech and finance interest to come here and start their companies. Those companies have, essentially, been pan-European from the first breath that they took. For example, under the e-commerce directive, a crowdfunder has been able to put up a project and seek investments through its online presence—the only way it exists—all across the UK plus the 27.
I understand from the SI that a crowdfunder based in the EEA will no longer be able to seek investments from UK investors unless it goes through the process of registering with the FCA and having its UK activities regulated by the FCA. I suspect that most will not bother. When you have 450 million people you can go to, going to an additional 65 million is probably not worth the effort. It is taking on the burden of an additional regulator just for a small part of the investor base you will be catching on to. If you do, you have only one regulator to deal with, and I assume that this is reciprocal. So if I am a UK-based crowdfunder, do I now have to go to the regulators in every one of the 27 and seek to become registered, certified or whatever else it is, to be able to continue to raise those funds? It is unusual for a crowdfunder based in the UK to raise most of its money in the UK. As I said, these have been pan-European from the day they took their first breath. They think that way, they are structured that way and their employees are designed in that way. Are we, in effect, hearing a death knell for crowdfunding and a whole series of related fintechs that are UK-based but have been reliant for building their investor or participant base from a pan-European, 500 million-person community? If there is this consequence then I am extremely concerned. Perhaps the Minister can explain; I may have it completely wrong.
After having some conversations I am quite concerned about a second point. Is the Minister clear that the UK companies that would find themselves trapped in this position are aware of it? Looking today at websites such as Seedrs or Crowdcube, there are hundreds of projects up on their systems seeking new investors. Those would presumably be grandfathered in this run-off programme, but dozens of new ones go up every single day. Do they understand that, in a week’s time, they may have to stop putting projects up in a way that can be accessed by a pan-European community? If not, are they in a position where they may be in breach and there may be serious repercussions as a consequence?
We are looking at an industry which many hold up as part of the fundamental future of financial services, an area the UK always considered itself a crucial leader in, and which we see as underpinning so much of our future prosperity. Can the Minister help me understand the consequences of what is about to happen?
Lord Tunnicliffe (Lab)
My Lords, I will speak mostly about the first SI, if only to moan a bit. Paragraph 3.6 of the Explanatory Memorandum says that the Secondary Legislation Scrutiny Committee,
“noted that the legislation proposed to be amended by the instrument includes: four Acts of Parliament; seven ‘pre-EU Exit’ statutory instruments; 12 ‘EU Exit’ statutory instruments that have been considered by the House during the last six months; and several items of retained EU legislation”.
As far as I can tell, there are 36 amendments in this SI which have no themes or interrelationship. To get a feel for how difficult it is to work on the SI, paragraph 2.6 of the Explanatory Memorandum gives up almost altogether and says:
“Part 3 also makes minor technical amendments to correct the following financial services EU exit instruments. Further information on these instruments can be found in the EMs accompanying the instruments on legislation.gov.uk”.
If I threw all that in, it would take hours. Indeed, if one devoted just 10 minutes’ attention to each amendment, it would take six hours to read the thing.
The Minister said, rather grandly, that this had been considered by the House of Commons. I too noted that fact and leapt at the Official Report to give me some help. It told me that the Commons committee sat at 6 pm —that is quite keen—but adjourned at 6.11 pm, having completed its work. Members devoted 11 minutes to this SI. I am sure that, due to their natural brilliance, they scrutinised it fully, but I am rather slower than that.
There is a real problem of how we get proper scrutiny. I sought help from the Civil Service, as one is invited to by the Explanatory Memorandum. As I understand it, the amendments fall into three groups. One group corrects errors; I would value knowing how many of the 36 are error corrections. Another group makes previous SIs compatible with those created subsequently by other departments. So we have one bit of government making SIs that create complications in another; it is a bit brave to consider creating complications in Treasury SIs.
The third group comes from a review of the previous legislation. One worries about that until turning again to the Explanatory Memorandum. The Treasury has been consistent and kept paragraphs 7.1 to 7.8 identical in all its 50 SIs. Paragraph 7.4 says that these SIs,
“are not intended to make policy changes, other than to reflect the UK’s new position outside the EU, and to smooth the transition to the situation”.
Therefore, I want a categorical assurance that in these 36 amendments there is no new policy. If there is new policy hidden among them, will the Minister tell me what that new policy is?
Turning to the second instrument, I found almost the opposite to the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer. Not that I am suggesting that what she said was not valid, but I thought this was a commendable Explanatory Memorandum. It is a stand-alone document that one could understand and it seemed that it was doing what the SI should do. In other words, it was dealing with inevitable consequences, so I am content with it. I think the essence of what the noble Baroness was saying is that here is yet another bad consequence of leaving the European Union, and to that extent I totally agree with her.
Lord Bates
I thank the noble Baroness and the noble Lord for their scrutiny and questions on these points. I shall do this in reverse order because I am waiting for a little further inspiration about fintech—it is arriving. The noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, is always assiduous in these matters and drifts easily between bus operations in Northern Ireland and financial services across the European Union in his scrutiny of SIs. He raises a very serious point: the first of these documents runs to some 26 pages, and 26 pages of Explanatory Memorandum, while the second has 11 pages and 14 pages of Explanatory Memorandum, so there is an awful lot of detail.
During this process—we are now nearing the end of it—we have worked on some 52 statutory instruments and have been grateful for the way the noble Baroness and the noble Lord have engaged with us very constructively over the past four to five months. During that process, of course, there will be consequential amendments that were not foreseen, because some of the 48 affirmative statutory instruments that have gone through this House were laid after the previous ones were made, and therefore changes need to be made. We envisaged, when we began this, what we call an onshoring process to ensure seamless activity, so that there is no disruption for UK financial services. We always envisaged the need for some instrument such as this at the end that corrected any errors and dealt with consequential changes. All the amendments are being made to ensure a functioning financial services regulatory regime in the UK, in any scenario, when the UK leaves. These amendments ensure continuity and clarity.
The noble Lord asked me to make the very specific commitment that no policy changes are involved in these: that is certainly the case. To make policy changes would be in contravention of the letter and spirit of the withdrawal Act and we certainly would not do it. The approach has been consistent. He asked about the number of errors. Around eight drafting errors in previous EU exit financial services SIs are being corrected in this measure.
The noble Baroness raised some issues around fintech and I appreciate her expertise in this area. Fintech is very much a jewel in the crown of the UK. We have some of the most amazing financial services firms in fintech, including start-ups in places, such as Shoreditch, around the City of London: it is a quite incredible and burgeoning industry and certainly one that we want to see continuing to expand. UK providers of online services to the EEA countries will need to continue to comply with a range of EEA countries’ individual legal requirements relating to online activities. The exclusion we are referring to here is limited to online-only activities. We expect that firms will use passporting rights rather than this exclusion; therefore, we estimate the number of fintech firms will be very small.
Baroness Kramer
Will the Minister, if he has the opportunity, look into this? I know that crowdfunders and many others—I have tried to tell the Treasury a million times—use the e-commerce directive, not passporting rights. It has played a key role. Whether they can transfer from using the e-commerce directive to passporting rights, I am not clear, but it seems at least an issue somebody should look at.
Lord Bates
I was just coming to that precise point, because the noble Baroness raises a serious point which is worthy and very important for us to look into further. I undertake to do that and to write to her, to copy in the noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, and to place a copy in the Library. It is very important that we ensure that there is no unintended, deleterious impact on such an important sector of the UK financial services industry. With that, I commend the regulations to the House.
Spring Statement
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Baroness Kramer (LD)
My Lords, I realise that I am being upstaged by the Prime Minister, who I understand is about to make a statement in front of 10 Downing Street. We have no idea what the content of that is. The noble Lord, Lord Hain, used the word “surreal”: that probably describes the situation. It is surreal. We have absolutely no idea when Brexit, how Brexit, or if Brexit; and all of that makes this discussion we are having on the economy essentially one of astrology, which I think was the word that my noble friend Lord Scriven used.
It is also surreal in a second way. I listened to the Chancellor’s Spring Statement and thought, “What economy is he looking at?”, when he said that the fundamentals are strong. I cannot imagine a single Member on the Conservative Benches, if they were listening to a Labour Government describing GDP growth of 1.2%, rising in the medium term to 1.5%, agreeing that that was satisfactory or acceptable. Those are appalling numbers, particularly at this stage in an economic cycle. We really have to take on board the message that that gives us about the problems and the scope that we have to deal with. I hope that at some point the Chancellor drops the PR and takes on board the very serious implications of that kind of insipid growth.
The noble Lords, Lord Bilimoria and Lord Davies, made the point about the underlying problem of chronic low productivity—running at a forecast rate of 1.2%. I say to the noble Lord, Lord Leigh, who thinks that the numbers might not be well calculated, that our running rate prior to the economic crisis was in excess of 2% a year. You can give any explanation you like; it does not cover a rise from 1.1% to 2%. This is a fundamental problem that we have to tackle. I very much agree with the analysis of the noble Lord, Lord Bilimoria: it is about not our top companies—that is where the Chancellor always focuses his efforts to increase productivity—but that long tail of small companies. We will have to take that on; it will need new ideas and investment. Quite frankly, it is a huge challenge and I wish it were being addressed more directly.
Export growth is weak, despite the cheap pound. Many noble Lords talked about the drop in business investment, which has fallen for four consecutive quarters. I pick up the point that the noble Lord, Lord Davies, made: many manufacturing jobs have moved. The noble Lord, Lord Northbrook, referred to the report from what I still call Ernst & Young, but which now calls itself EY, which estimates that the financial services industry has committed—this is no longer a “might” or a “perhaps”; it has actually committed—to moving in excess of $1 trillion of assets out of the UK to Europe. The noble Lord thought the tax impact of that was £600 million. I think that was the impact of the 7,000 jobs the financial services industry has now committed to move, and that is assuming fairly low rates of pay. It does not tackle the loss from transactions now being registered over in continental Europe, and therefore all the corporate tax that would be generated by that is gone as well; we have no estimate of those numbers. That is just one industry.
The noble Lord, Lord Davies, picked up an issue that is frequently missed, certainly by the Treasury: the decision by Bank of America to move its European headquarters to Dublin and its trading headquarters to Paris is absolutely fundamental. BofA does not move without the say-so of the US Treasury, and that message has shot right through the entire financial services industry. It is extraordinarily significant, and we need to get serious about it.
Consumer spending fell by 1.8% in February; that extends the downward trend to five months. We know we need infrastructure, but the collapse of Carillion and Interserve undermines most of the immediate-term plans to try to expand major capital projects, so we have a series of problems there.
I fully accept that the Chancellor had two pieces of good news. One is that people are paying their taxes more promptly. However, the noble Lord, Lord Macpherson, reminded us that that serendipity often turns with no warning, so we should enjoy it while we may. I am glad that taxes are coming in but we had better recognise that that could switch. The other was good numbers on employment and wages growth. I want to give a warning. The noble Lord, Lord Leigh—we had a conversation earlier in the Prince’s Chamber—picked up a point that I would make: this is a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator. I hope the Treasury knows the difference. It also matters in other senses. One is that if you are looking at a 1.2% growth rate and you have virtually full employment, this tells you that you have a problem with a shortage of working-age population. This is an issue now being picked up by the Resolution Foundation. We have a really serious demographic problem: we are short of working-age population. Frankly, all the anti-immigration language we hear can only make that problem acutely worse. It is a fundamental issue that the Chancellor will have to address.
Among others, my colleagues on these Benches—my noble friends Lord Shipley, Lady Thornhill and Lord Scriven—underscored the problem we face in public sector services. We have now cut too long and too deep, and we can see that it has gone into the bone by all the issues raised across the Floor today. I heard my colleagues talk about the crisis that local government faces—shortfalls in revenue amounting to something like £8 billion by 2024; the difficulties in delivering social care, not just for adults but now increasingly for children; policing; and knife crime. The noble Earl, Lord Listowel, talked eloquently about the problem of children in care. It almost does not matter which area we look at today: we still see a serious crisis in the public sector’s ability to deliver a quality of service that we find acceptable.
If I follow that logic through, I end up talking about taxes. I agree very much with the noble Lord, Lord Wakeham, that we have to make sure that the large digital companies pay their fair share. That will take creativity, aggression and determination. We are not quite sure how we are going to do it, but we have to put that near the top of the agenda.
I sit with my colleagues and say that this is the time to look at those cuts in capital gains tax. I do not think they have yielded any increase in investment, and they should therefore be reversed. There are also the cuts in corporation tax. We have not seen businesses take that tax saving and put it into the economy. If anything, it has gone into share buybacks. It is time that those cuts, too, were reversed. We also need to revise completely the way in which business rates are defined. I am in the camp that talks about looking at land value taxes—although, as the noble Earl, Lord Lytton, reminded us, that requires a transition process, to make sure that people are not injured in the passage from one system to another.
As for social care, we need a broad solution. Like many others, I think that we need to think about hypothecated taxes for the NHS and social care if we are going to deal with the problems in those areas. Yet in the Statement all those opportunities were neglected, and not taken.
My last point is about the loan charge—a subject on which I disagree with the noble Lord, Lord Wakeham. I am on the APPG on the loan charge, and I have now heard the evidence of so many individuals. They are not celebrities or high earners but, for example, people who used to be local government employees, often in social care, but who have now been outsourced. They were told that in order to carry on the same work, they would have to go to the Government’s identified recruitment agency. They had no idea that the papers they signed were putting them into an arrangement involving loan charge. All they knew was that their take-home pay before, when they were employed, and afterwards, when they were outsourced, looked pretty much identical.
Government departments are deeply embedded in this, because despite all the statements by HMRC, numerous people are now coming forward who were taken on by HMRC on an agency basis: that was the only way in which they could be employed to do that work. Those very bodies, which I assume had been pre-qualified by HMRC, and which had written the specifications for what they had to do in order to recruit, were the ones that introduced people to the schemes that have now landed them in loan charge problems. There are so many serious problems there that I hope there will be real pressure to make the response on 30 March a proper review, not just a limited report. I hope the Minister will take that message back.
Lord Bates
I am sorry—delete “even” from the record. The right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Chester, whose point about housing I will come back to in a minute, referred to it. The noble Lords, Lord Leigh, Lord Gadhia, Lord Bilimoria and Lord Suri, recognised that progress had been made despite the headwinds. It is absolutely right that we recognise that that progress has been made because British business and enterprise up and down the country—and around the world—is making a Herculean effort, creating jobs, wealth and buoyant tax revenues. These revenues are coming into the Exchequer, giving us the opportunity to look at them.
Across most of the contributions, there was a focus on public services and public spending. As I mentioned, the spending review will be in the summer and conclude in time for the Budget for the autumn, which will rely on it. Contributions effectively broke down into four areas. The noble Lords, Lord Macpherson and Lord Hain, and the noble Earl, Lord Listowel, referred to social care. The noble Lords, Lord Tunnicliffe and Lord Bilimoria, referred to policing, and the noble Lord, Lord Scriven, alluded to the tragic knife crime situation in Sheffield. The right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Chester, the noble Lord, Lord Wakeham, and the noble Baroness, Lady Thornhill, referred to housing. The noble Lord, Lord Shipley, and the noble Earl, Lord Lytton, addressed local government finance.
Two other areas, which were grouped together, were the challenges of the changing nature of tax revenue and collection. The attraction of statutory land tax, which the noble Lord, Lord Wakeham, referred to, is that it is very easy to collect. The changing nature of tax is making collecting tax more challenging. The noble Lord, Lord Wakeham, the noble Earl, Lord Lytton, my noble friend Lord Leigh and the noble Viscount, Lord Chandos, referred to that challenge and ways to address it. Coupled with that is business confidence, which the noble Lords, Lord Gadhia, Lord Suri, Lord Northbrook and Lord Davies, referred to.
I will use the bulk of my time to address the questions raised as a result of those contributions. Several noble Lords asked how the Brexit dividend might be funded. The OBR’s Spring Statement forecast that business investment is weak. The noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, referred to that, and we acknowledge that in the near term. However, as uncertainty wanes, it picks up to 2.3% in 2020 and grows stronger at this pace from 2021 onwards. GDP growth is forecast to be 1.2% in 2019 before picking up to 1.4% in 2020 and 1.6% from 2021 onwards.
The noble Lords, Lord Tunnicliffe and Lord Hain, as well as several others, referred to infrastructure. We have increased the National Productivity Investment Fund to £37 billion to support key infrastructure up and down the country. Public investment is at its highest sustained level in 40 years.
The noble Lord, Lord Bilimoria, and the noble Earl, Lord Lytton, referred to Making Tax Digital—indeed, the noble Lord, Lord Wakeham, focused on that and the noble Lord, Lord Hain, touched on it. Research now shows the high level of awareness among business and tax professionals: eight out of 10 businesses were aware at the end of last year and over 80% of those had already started preparing. Of VAT returns, 98% are already done online.
The disguised remuneration loan charge was raised quite extensively, by my noble friend Lord Northbrook; by the noble Lord, Lord Wakeham, on behalf of the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth; and by the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, with her work on the all-party parliamentary group. Disguised remuneration schemes are and always were contrived tax avoidance. It is not normal or reasonable to be paid loans that are not repaid in practice; my noble friend Lord Wakeham was right in his sage advice on that, as in so much other advice he has given over the years. It is the individual’s responsibility to ensure the accuracy of his or her tax return. HMRC is pursuing the promoters of disguised remuneration schemes and has been investigating over 100 promoters. In the last year, HMRC has taken litigation action against 10 scheme promoters.
I turn to universal credit and welfare, which the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Chester referred to and the noble Lord, Lord Shipley—
Baroness Kramer
This really is an important point on the loan charge. Regarding the action that the Minister said HMRC had taken against scheme promoters, I do not believe that any of those schemes was a loan charge scheme. Those are schemes generally, but one of the complaints is that no action has been taken against the promoters of loan charge arrangements.
Lord Bates
I am afraid that I do not have the answer to that. Your Lordships may recall that, after the Autumn Statement, I ended up having to write extensively on loan charges. We know that officials at the Treasury are used to dealing with disappointments and I am afraid we may have to write again on the issue to deal with that point.
On welfare, as the noble Earl, Lord Listowel mentioned, work is the best route out of poverty. I thank him for the recognition that he gave to the incredible growth in the number of people—three and a half million more—in work, and a million fewer people in workless households. These are substantial social changes happening around the country and we believe that that is the best route out of poverty. Changes to the welfare system have ensured that work pays. There is a strong safety net for people who need it, while making the system fair for taxpayers.
The noble Lords, Lord Tunnicliffe, Lord Scriven and Lord Bilimoria, all raised the issue of serious violence. Police forces are already due to receive an additional £970 million from April. Police and crime commissioners have committed to using this funding to recruit and train an extra 2,800 police officers. In addition, the Chancellor announced a package of £100 million additional funding. Of this, £80 million is new funding, which takes the total additional funding for policing this year to in excess of £1 billion.
The noble Lords, Lord Hain and Lord Bilimoria, the noble Baroness, Lady Thornhill, and the noble Earl, Lord Lytton, referred to business rates. We are providing up-front support worth over £1 billion for high streets through the new retail discount, reducing bills by one-third for up to 90% of retail property for two years, starting from 1 April 2019.
On housing, further progress has been made in implementing the Budget to achieve our ambition of 300,000 homes. I hope that the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Chester will not called upon from his retirement home in Scotland to eat his cassock—that prospect will add extra zest to our ambition to meet the target—but £717 million from the £5.5 billion Housing Infrastructure Fund to unlock 37,000 homes is a good step in that direction; there will be £250 million for 13,000 homes at Old Oak Common in London, and there are other schemes in Cambridge.
The noble Lord, Lord Wakeham made a serious point about the tax gap. While we recognise that there is a long way to go, we have one of the lowest tax gaps on record. It has fallen from 7.3% in 2005-06 to 5.7% in 2016-17.
We heard a considerable number of contributions on the very important issue of health and social care, which featured significantly in the Autumn Budget as well as in the Spring Statement last year.
Over the last three years, we have given councils access to around £10 billion of dedicated additional funding for adult social care. This includes £240 million this year and next for adult social care so that people can leave hospital when they are ready, and £410 million next year for councils to use to improve social care for older people, people with disabilities and children. This was announced in the Autumn Budget of 2018. The offer of the noble Earl, Lord Listowel, for us to see the incredible work done by many involved in social care and health visitors is one that many will want to take up.
I was immensely grateful to my noble friend Lord Leigh, for summarising a lot of the very positive, good news around, as did my noble friends Lord Suri and Lord Northbrook. My noble friend Lord Leigh spoke particularly about the measurement of productivity, and I think he is on to a point here. We had a discussion about this after the last Autumn Budget, and that was one of the conversations that led to the commissioning of Professor Sir Charles Bean to undertake an independent review of UK economic statistics to find out, among many things, whether that point about how financial services are treated and whether their full value is considered is right. To help address challenges, the Treasury has today provided the ONS with £16 million of funding so that we can continue to have world-leading statistics that capture what is happening in the modern economy.
The noble Baroness, Lady Thornhill, talked about the funding of local government. I recognise the experience that she draws on when she does that. The Budget of 2018 and the 2019-20 local government finance settlement delivered a real-terms increase in core spending power for local authorities in 2019-20. We expect authorities to receive final funding allocations in the normal timetable. Councils in England can access more than £200 billion for local services from 2015 to 2020. The 2019 spending review will be launched in the summer and conclude in the autumn and will no doubt receive many representations.
I am sorry about not addressing the point made by the noble Viscount, Lord Chandos, about student loans. I remember answering an Urgent Question at the time of the last debate and I thank him for that. This will be taken up in the Augar review. In the Spring Statement, the Chancellor of the Exchequer announced that the post-18 education and funding review will conclude at the spending review, so that will be in the summer. This is a delay from the original timetable, in part due to the decision by the ONS to change how student loans are accounted for in public expenditure. That will be covered in the review.
The noble Lord, Lord Shipley, mentioned the importance of the northern powerhouse. That is crucially important: we have seen spending of more than £13 billion—the largest in history—in the northern powerhouse. We hail from the same area of Tyne and Wear and we have all rejoiced at the increase in infrastructure there, including the Tyne and Wear metro upgrade, which will make a very big difference.
The noble Lord, Lord Bilimoria, asked whether we would have the necessary money in the event of no deal. The Chancellor has been clear that leaving without a deal would mean significant disruption in the short and medium term, and a smaller economy in the long term. However, he also laid out ways in which it is possible for the Government to prepare us, including holding a £26.6 billion headroom against our borrowing target.
I again thank noble Lords for their contributions. Several noble Lords referred to investment into the UK. I want to put some points on the record, which noble Lords might have touched on. We need to remember that Forbes magazine, which knows a thing or two about business, surveyed 153 economies to find out which was the best country in the world for business investment. It arrived at the UK in 2018—and again in 2019; it is the number one place for investment. That is backed up not just in a survey but with the significant increase in overseas investment between 2016 and 2017—the last numbers available were announced just last year.
Lord Bates
I am on a roll. Can I go a little further with the good news before we get reminded that every silver lining has a cloud wrapped around it? There was a £149 billion, or 12.6%, increase in the stock of overseas investment in the UK. It is now the third-largest in the world and the largest in Europe. London is the top city for property investment, not way past when, but in 2018. It was £16.2 billion compared with £12 billion in Paris and £8.4 billion in Hong Kong. Exports are at near-record levels and have risen more than 50% since 2010. They rose by £17 billion last year.
We have many challenges in this country and face many headwinds, but one of the things we can all have confidence in is that the world has confidence in this country. We should have more confidence in ourselves. I commend the Statement to the House.
Baroness Kramer
I do not want to entirely ruin what the Minister is saying. I know that the noble Lord, Lord Leigh, knows exactly what I will say in this particular instance. The Minister is quite right that a lot of the investment in the UK is property development. It is overseas moguls buying very expensive properties in London and elsewhere. If that is removed from the numbers, I am afraid that the picture is exceedingly different.
Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019
Baroness Kramer Excerpts(5 years, 1 month ago)
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Baroness Kramer (LD)
My Lords, I begin with a thank you. My noble friend Lord Sharkey and I—I know that the noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, will speak for himself, as he always does so well—very much appreciated the opportunity to meet the Minister, the Economic Secretary and key staff to talk in detail about this statutory instrument. I completely concur with the comments of the Treasury Select Committee that these are sweeping powers which, under normal circumstances, I do not think anybody, in any part of this House, would dream of granting to a regulator. However, under the circumstances we would face in a no-deal scenario, it seems vital that the regulator has the ability to mitigate a crisis cliff edge for key parts of the financial services industry.
I note that in the guidance published by the Bank of England and the FCA last Friday, they will be attempting to limit the transitional period, as the Minister said, to 15 months, so that firms will manage within that 15-month period to go from where we are now, essentially—let us call it scenario A—to life outside the EU in a no-deal scenario, which we will call scenario B. It would give them some 15 months, typically, but with the capacity to extend that to two years if necessary. Also, the Bank of England has made exceptions for the bail-in rules, the stay in resolution rules and the FSCS rules, all of which relate closely to financial stability. We appreciate that it would be very hard to provide any transitional time for those rules and their consequences, but does the Minister have any comment to make around the significance of deciding on those three exemptions? Can he confirm that, if we were to have no deal and find ourselves in that reality and the regulators decided that the situation was better managed by finding some flexibility around these three rules, the regulator has given away the capacity to do so? Or does it retain an opportunity to change its mind and provide some mechanism for adjustment? One would hope that that was not necessary. Across the credit rating agency assessments, we will get only a 12-month extension, though I think all of us recognise that that is probably not problematic for any of the players.
In our discussion, as the Minister indicated, we asked for more frequent reporting than just 12 months from now. It seemed a bit like closing the stable door after the horse has bolted to wait for that period. We very much appreciate that the Treasury and the regulators have agreed that they can update us every six months: that is exceedingly helpful. We also appreciate the description that the Minister gave when he had to make a correction, which we perfectly accept is a very minor correction. The noble Baroness, Lady McIntosh, picked up the fact that the complexity here is extraordinary. It is very hard to predict, very hard to track and very hard to play through the scenarios and understand exactly how each needs to be handled, certainly in advance. So I think we might find ourselves trying to take advantage of the offer from the regulators of specific discussions if a particular issue arises. I am grateful again that the Minister has had a conversation with the regulators that led them to say that that will be open to us: it is exceedingly welcome.
This underscores the point of the noble Baroness, Lady McIntosh, about the extent to which, given all this complexity, there might be some way to provide some mapping of exactly what is happening where—what is moving and what is changing. That is a big ask at the moment, I understand, but if there could be some thought around that, it would be very useful, not just to this House and the other place but to the industry, which I am sure must be struggling with all this, although it very much appreciates the detailed engagement it has had with the Treasury, with Ministers and with the regulators. If we move to a practice of mapping under such circumstances, that might be a healthier environment to get to. It was one of our asks of the Minister that he felt he could not commit to at this point.
Our second ask was for some specific examples. My noble friend Lord Sharkey is unable to be here. He was particularly concerned to work through some specific examples in his head, so he may come back to ask for something more detailed. I particularly appreciated that the Minister gave an example of an issue that, as he knows, has exercised me: how do we manage the fact that our major financial institutions have significant exposure to EU and EEA assets and will incur higher capital ratios because they will no longer have preferred status if we leave on a no-deal basis? I was very glad that he gave us that particular example.
We very much hope that we do not have to use this, and it would be exceedingly helpful to know that we are not going to have no deal, because despite all the preparation that I understand is being done with real concentration and thought, it does not deal with the fact that there is going to be an almighty problem. I can see firms—all of them, though they are competitors—in different stages, different states with different micro-problems, all of which regulators are trying to manage so that there is no knock-on effect on financial stability or to the economy. It is going to be an extraordinarily difficult situation to manage, and anything we can do to make sure it does not happen will be extremely useful. If I can encourage anyone in this House to take no deal off the table, let me use this opportunity to do so.
Lord Tunnicliffe (Lab)
My Lords, I feel the need to start with my standard speech about how much I object to being here processing statutory instruments for a no-deal situation. I entirely agree with the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, in her dislike of such a situation and the chaos that will prevail. Having said that, I am forced to say nice things about the Government and, indeed, about the Lib Dem Front Bench in this whole affair. The Treasury SIs we have passed so far have, to a large extent, despite some of the speeches, been fairly non-controversial. What I have been looking for all the way through are attempts by the Treasury or the Government to smuggle through policy changes, which they promised not to do in the original legislation, and I must say that, broadly speaking, I think the Treasury has not sought to smuggle through any of significance. However, the result of that is that our debates have been rather dry.
This SI was quite shocking on initial reading. Part 7 has such sweeping powers, with no formal parliamentary involvement, that I thought—and we spoke to our colleagues on the Liberal Democrat Front Bench about this—that we really had to take it very seriously. I once again repeat my thanks to the Liberal Democrats for coming along on this and to the Government for the positive way in which they have reacted. For the record, I will briefly run over our concerns and note that they have been largely covered in the speech made by the Minister. We were first concerned about the limitations in the power in Part 7; there is a time limit of two years, and it is important to emphasise that that limitation is not just for making directions—rather, directions must cease within two years of exit day. That is fairly clear from reading the document.
It is more difficult to grasp the scope. One of the useful things we discussed at our meeting with John Glen, the Economic Secretary to the Treasury, was scope. Scope is difficult to get into words, and we thank the Minister for the detailed examples in his speech, which will, we hope, be useful for practitioners in understanding it. In particular, we had some concerns over whether it might be used in crisis circumstances, and received a very strong assurance that separate legislation would be used in such circumstances.
I come finally to the lack of any parliamentary involvement in the process. This was clearly also the concern of the Treasury Select Committee; being a big, powerful committee, using its own mechanisms, it can rapidly draw Ministers to account. It did that with the Economic Secretary to the Treasury, and got assurances from him, as I understand it, that whenever the power was used to create a direction it would be advised. Clearly, it was then able to summon a Minister to hold the Government to account on its use. We did not have such a parallel situation, so we asked, and then got this assurance in the speech, that whenever such a notification went to the Treasury Select Committee, a copy would come to representatives on both our Front Bench and the Liberal Democrats’. The second part of that, in a sense, was an assurance that we would get access. I do not mean to suggest the Minister is not an important person, but at the end of the day his interest is in DfID. He simply speaks for the Treasury here. It was good that the Economic Secretary to the Treasury said that he would make himself available to answer any of our questions about how the power had been used. That was very reassuring.
Embedded deep in the SI and the Explanatory Memorandum is the fact that certain directions may have to be secret. We were concerned that when any organisation has the option of making something secret it tends to do so. We would like to know when and for what reasons that is used. That was also acknowledged in the speech. Clearly this has to be post facto—obviously it has to be when it is no longer embarrassing—but it is important that the use of this power is fully understood.
Lastly, we felt that 12-monthly reports on a power that was going to last for only two years would be insufficient. Assuming it is for the previous 12 months, the report takes a couple of months to write and so on, and then you are half way through the second year. The acceptance of six-monthly reports is extremely welcome. I repeat my thanks to the Government for co-operating in the way they did; it has allowed us to create a mechanism for an involvement of this House in the use of this power and, with those conditions attached, we accept the logic that says it is necessary.
Lord Bates
I thank my noble friend Lady McIntosh, the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, and the noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, for their contributions and engagement through this whole process. I am particularly grateful to my noble friend Lady McIntosh for participating in the debate and for opening it up with some perspectives on this. She said it was unclear what the post-exit requirements for derivatives were. We have made several onshoring SIs relevant to trading and issuing of derivatives already. I think we are currently up to SI number 40. Within that batch of 40, there were some specifically on that. I will certainly write to my noble friend to explain exactly how this regime will operate post exit.
She also asked about the direction of the transitional power. The power is available to regulators for two years from exit. It is then for the regulators to propose appropriate delay or phasing in of requirements within the two-year period. She also asked about the impact assessment—I applaud her for her scrutiny in getting to that level of detail in the specific tables. Let me populate some of the information from them. As outlined in the impact assessment, while the overall familiarisation costs were estimated at £110 million, the cost per firm was estimated at £1,900. The number of firms affected was based on the fact that FiSMA applies to all firms regulated by the PRA and FCA, which amounts to approximately 58,000 firms. It is also estimated that there will be an additional 1,200 firms entering into the temporary permissions regime, which then brings the total to 59,200. While FiSMA applies to all firms regulated by the PRA and FCA, many of the effects of this SI result from the loss of passporting rights at exit. I note that the remarks she made were drawn from considerable experience of how hard-fought those rights were. Of course, that is a consequence of decisions taken ultimately by the British people. This means that changes made by the SI will, in terms of the number of firms affected, predominantly affect those 1,200 firms entering the temporary permissions regime.
Moving to the remarks made by the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, I again thank her for her input on this. She asked whether we could map all the onshoring changes. She made that request at the meeting with the Economic Secretary to the Treasury. Although we recognised that there were some challenges in doing just that, we felt that it was a very reasonable request when we met last week. I can confirm that we are working on this and will be in touch, I hope with a positive mapping exercise to share with her.
Lord Bates
I am very happy to do that. I should also say that all these changes are being made because of the quite brilliant Economic Secretary to the Treasury, John Glen. He is an outstanding Economic Secretary, and takes his duties very seriously. As a more senior person, I find it encouraging to see young Ministers who are so diligent in the way they engage with Parliament and the department. He is an example to others in how he does it. The noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, found a polite way of saying that he found it refreshing to be talking to the butcher, not the block. I absolutely get the point, and he could not be engaging with a better metaphorical butcher in this regard.
The noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, asked me to comment on the significance of the Bank of England exemptions regarding the FSCS rules. The regulators have judged that bringing in these requirements immediately is important for the financial stability. The Treasury was consulted and agrees with this. We do not anticipate that this will change.
On the point made by the noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, on the use of unpublished directions, on which again, we had a substantial and useful discussion, it should be stressed that the Treasury and the regulators would want to avoid unpublished directions as the power is to be used broadly across a large range of firms. Unpublished directions would not be effective—as I read that out I thought that the noble Lord was ahead of us in that he was not asking for the unpublished directions but was rather seeking an engagement on matters after the fact. I certainly know that the Economic Secretary is taking that seriously.
I thank noble Lords again for their engagement on this, particularly my noble friend Lady McIntosh. I also thank the Opposition and Lib Dem Benches for the constructive way in which they have engaged with the Government on this, as a result producing a better outcome for regulation.
Financial Services (Gibraltar) (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019
Baroness Kramer Excerpts(5 years, 1 month ago)
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Baroness Kramer (LD)
My Lords, I will be exceedingly brief because, again, this falls into the category of necessary changes to regulation in order to keep a reasonable consistency in the relationship between the Gibraltarian and UK financial markets. I accept that but I have to say: poor Gibraltar.
There is a three-way relationship between Britain, Gibraltar and Spain. A recent tax treaty between the UK and Spain requires Gibraltarians sourcing their business primarily in Spain to pay Spanish taxes. I suspect that some in Gibraltar are slightly stunned by it but realise they have to accept it. The complexity of the relationship outside the EU is far from being resolved.
As the noble Baroness, Lady McIntosh of Pickering, said earlier, unfortunately impact statements only test the actual cost of a particular regulation and then compare it with what would happen if there was no regulation. They never compare the cost between implementing no deal and remaining in the EU. This is where the big number lies, not only for the UK, but very much for Gibraltar. So it is crucial to do anything we can at this point to try to minimise the impact. This regulation is a small part of it. I cannot see how the whole Brexit strategy—deal or no deal—can ever benefit Gibraltar or give it a future which is anything like as prosperous as the one it had in a remain context.
Lord Deben (Con)
My Lords, I want to ask a question which follows on from the intervention of the noble Lord, Lord Beith. First, I am still a little at a loss as to how these years work, compared with other SIs. I do not quite understand what would happen if we had a deal and a transitional period. The noble Lord raised something which needs to be explained.
Secondly, I agree with the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, that it would be wrong to allow these two SIs to pass without reminding the House of the serious effects of Brexit on this particular connection of the United Kingdom. The more we talk about these and the more you unwind it, the more it becomes quite clear how ridiculous the whole process is. I know it is not suitable for my noble friend to comment on this, but I wish only that our Benches were filled with those who think that Brexit is good idea so that they could listen to the realities of what happens if you leave the European Union—let alone without a deal. As usual, none of them is present to listen to the serious effects of Brexit. It is rather like trying to talk about climate change. You never have the climate change deniers present to see what the science is actually about. The House might like to note the non-existence of those who think that Brexit is just a matter of getting there and doing it at once. The people who stand outside with little notices about the WTO clearly have never worked out what becoming dependent on WTO rules means.
Thirdly, of course we have to pass these two SIs. Without them, were we to leave the European Union without a deal, things would be even worse than they need be, but we must not do it thinking that this is going to make things easier. Gibraltar is a sharp instance of the damage that could be done. Will my noble friend explain a little more about the discussions that have been held with the Gibraltar Government and particularly his reference to the Gibraltar Government making their own arrangements should there be Brexit without a deal? What are these arrangements and how do they interrelate with this SI? I do not think that many Members of this House have detailed knowledge of the kinds of things which Gibraltar would have to do were we—and they—to leave the European Union without a deal. It would be helpful to the House if my noble friend would delineate what exactly it is that they have to do and what their powers and responsibilities are in parallel with the two SIs with which we are concerned this evening.