Declining Birth Rates

Baroness Nargund Excerpts

Thursday 4th June 2026 Lords Chamber

Asked by

[Baroness Nargund]

To ask His Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the UK’s declining birth rates in an ageing population, and the impact of this demographic shift on the workforce, demand for public services and economic growth.

[Baroness Nargund (Lab)]

My Lords, I am grateful for the opportunity to debate this important topic in your Lordships’ House. “Demography is destiny” is an old saying that has never felt more urgent. The UK faces a demographic shift that threatens an unfolding economic crisis. This issue has concerned me for nearly two decades. In 2009, I published a peer-reviewed paper, which was described as a landmark paper, on this topic. Since then, I have continued to debate and address this subject nationally and internationally. I am particularly pleased that today’s debate benefits from the contribution of so many learned noble Lords. Today, I will address the impact of our ageing population, falling fertility rates, the economic barriers preventing family formation and why equal access to fertility treatment and gender equality need to be central to our long-term growth.

Deaths are now projected to outnumber births in the UK every single year. By 2034, pensioners will outnumber children by 3 million. Since 2010, UK fertility rates have fallen by 25%, the steepest decline in the G7. These are not just social statistics; they are fiscal ones. PwC estimates that population ageing could reduce UK GDP by £429 billion by the year 2100, while public health funding is forecast to nearly double as a share of our economy by 2074.

We face a compounding crisis of rising healthcare and pension costs alongside a shrinking workforce. Nowhere is this more visible than in our National Health Service. When it was founded in 1948, only 11% of our population was over the age of 65. Today, the figure is nearly 20%. The number of over-85s, the highest users of our healthcare, has doubled in two decades. At the same time, 2 million people over 65 have unmet care needs, while over 150,000 social care posts sit vacant every single day. These pressures extend across the workforce. Economic inactivity rates rise from 17.4% at the age of 50 to nearly 70% by the age of 66. By state pension age, more than two-thirds of people have left work. We are losing experienced workers precisely when we can least afford to. Pension and retirement reforms can help to address this.

I turn to declining birth rates. The UK fertility rate fell to 1.39 in 2025, far below the 2.1 needed to sustain our population. The consequences are reshaping our communities. Maternity units are closing and so are primary schools across our country. That is simply because there are fewer children. Declining birth rates are a global phenomenon. Some of that reflects a cultural change, yet many people still want children or want more children but cannot afford to have them. That gap between aspiration and reality, known as the fertility gap, is a policy failure. We do not want to create economic conditions that make parenthood unaffordable or fail to provide fair access to fertility treatment, and we do not want to create political infertility. As the UK fertility expert on the panel for the Economist impact report Fertility Policy and Practice: a Toolkit for Europe, I can say that the evidence is clear: child-friendly policies pay for themselves.

No conversation about declining birth rates is complete without addressing assisted reproduction. We still have a postcode lottery for IVF provision, with nearly 70% of ICBs funding only one cycle of treatment. I welcome our Government’s neighbourhood health hubs as an opportunity to improve the early diagnosis of reproductive conditions to facilitate faster treatments of infertility. I have argued repeatedly that the introduction of a national tariff and a price cap for IVF would increase access within the existing budget.

Peer-reviewed research has shown that public funding for IVF delivers an eightfold return on investment to our Treasury, taking into account the lifetime economic value of a child born in the United Kingdom. Furthermore, it promotes the creation of diverse and inclusive families by helping single women and same-sex couples. I therefore ask my noble friend the Minister: should equal and fair access to fertility treatment be recognised as an economic priority?

We cannot speak about demographic decline while leaving families to navigate parenthood alone. Raising a child to the age of 18 now costs around £260,000 for a couple and £290,000 for a single parent. Nearly 40% cite the cost of raising children as a reason for delaying having family; people call it a second mortgage. The UK has the fourth most expensive childcare in the world, and only 11% of employers offer it.

I welcome the Government’s measures in the Renters’ Rights Act and the Social Housing Bill, which matter not only socially but economically. Our statutory paternity leave remains among the lowest in Europe. I also welcome our Government’s review on parental leave, and I urge them to extend paternity leave and pay so that it is viable for all families. Immigration has an important role to play, but immigration alone cannot rebalance these demographic imbalances.

Finally, there is also a digital challenge. Recent research cited in the Financial Times found that the first areas in the UK to receive 4G also saw birth rates fall earliest and fastest. Young people are socialising less and forming fewer long-term relationships. If we are serious about reversing demographic decline, we must also examine the impact of technology on connection, relationships and family formation.

There is no single solution to this challenge, but the thread connecting all of it is economic growth. At the heart of any solution must be family-friendly policies that promote gender parity, support work and parenthood, and create financial security. These are not costs to the Exchequer; they are investments in our future prosperity. This requires co-ordinated cross-governmental action. Will my noble friend the Minister therefore consider the appointment of a dedicated government lead to address this issue? “Demography is destiny” need not become our nation’s fate, but only if we act now. I look forward to my noble friend’s reply.