UK Economy: Post-Referendum Assessment

Debate between Chris Leslie and David Gauke

Monday 23rd May 2016 Commons Chamber

[Mr Gauke]

The Treasury—indeed, some of the same civil servants—was involved in making the assessment of the five economic tests that kept us out of the euro. I suggest that my hon. Friend looks carefully at the report. We do not make any claims of the sort he suggests—about it being the greatest depression since the great depression of 1929—but suggest that the “shock” scenario involves the economy shrinking by 3.6% compared with the base, which is the forecast for the next few years. This is actually a very measured, conservative assessment of the impact, but none the less there would be an impact and it would result in 500,000 more people being unemployed than need be the case.

[Chris Leslie (Nottingham East) (Lab/Co-op)]

When does the Minister think that those advocating leaving the EU will level with the British public and provide their own economic assessment? Half of them think we can leave the EU and stay in the single market and the other half say, “Oh no, we won’t be part of the single market at all.” Is it not useful, therefore, that today’s analysis gives a snapshot of what a “severe shock” would look like if we were still in the single market? Will he also say a bit more about the “severe shock” analysis—falling back on the WTO membership rules—and how it could lead to 800,000 more people becoming unemployed?

[Mr Gauke]

The hon. Gentleman is right that under the more severe shock scenario, unemployment would increase by 800,000 and GDP would be 6% lower than it would otherwise have been. These are significant numbers. They are not equivalent to the great depression, but they are still significant numbers that would have a significant effect on his and my constituents. The hon. Gentleman raises an important point, and I hope we will get greater clarity about exactly what leaving the EU would involve. It seems to me that there is a clear trade-off: the closer a country is to membership of the EU, as for example with the European economic area model, the more it will continue to have the attributes of EU membership; the further away it is, it may have that greater freedom and flexibility, but it will clearly face a much bigger economic shock.

Oral Answers to Questions

Debate between Chris Leslie and David Gauke

Tuesday 19th April 2016 Commons Chamber

[Mr Gauke]

It does take some time for HMRC to combine and match multiple datasets and hundreds of millions of lines of its own and the Department for Work and Pensions’ data. The intention is to publish the information alongside the ONS analysis. I note that according to its website the ONS plans to publish in May a note on migration incorporating the latest available migration data, and helping to explain further why the two datasets show different trends.

[Chris Leslie (Nottingham East) (Lab/Co-op)]

What about the 3.3 million people—one in 10 of the existing workforce—who pay their national insurance and tax and whose jobs are linked to UK exports to the EU? Does the Minister agree that leave campaigners should not just cross their fingers and dismiss reality and that Members on both sides of the House have a duty to spell out the fact that leaving the EU would put real jobs at real risk?

Budget Changes

Debate between Chris Leslie and David Gauke

Monday 21st March 2016 Commons Chamber

[Mr Gauke]

I am very grateful to my right hon. and learned Friend for highlighting that point.

[Chris Leslie (Nottingham East) (Lab/Co-op)]

The Minister has to accept that there will be a serious problem with the votes on the Budget resolutions tomorrow. How on earth is the House supposed to make a judgment when page 103 of the Red Book has been totally ripped up and changed? We are none the wiser about the contents of that section. Will he just answer one question? On a scale of one to 10, how embarrassed is he today?

[Mr Gauke]

If I were the hon. Gentleman, I would be a little embarrassed for not being aware that there are no votes on personal independence payments in the Budget resolutions tomorrow.

Small Businesses: Tax Reporting

Debate between Chris Leslie and David Gauke

Monday 25th January 2016 Westminster Hall

[Mr Gauke]

That is a fair question. The hon. Gentleman raised that point in his remarks and there is a distinction between the nature of the information provided. Whereas a full return can be complex, the update will be based on business records that are already being recorded. There will be one process for both business and tax purposes, which will involve a summary of income and expenses.

The hon. Gentleman asks what is the use of the data and how will they be helpful. First, keeping records digitally will reduce error, partly because that will be done on a more timely basis. Secondly, the data will allow HMRC to focus its attention on the small minority of small businesses that are evading their taxes, and not on those who are trying to get it right. One must also bear it in mind that the software will help taxpayers identify any errors in the information they provide. One of the key benefits permitted by a more digital approach is that errors can be spotted earlier by the taxpayers themselves.

I reassure the House that HMRC does not intend to increase interventions on the basis of quarterly updates. On the contrary: HMRC is seeking to reduce error at source and so reduce the need for interventions. It is the case that by keeping records in real time instead of processing paperwork at the year end, businesses are less likely to lose receipts or make basic accounting errors.

I confirm that the proposal applies to large businesses—it is not exclusively for smaller businesses. On whether the software will work, let me point out that there are already six free products on the market and we expect there to be more as small software firms innovate to meet business needs. Such firms are clearly keen to engage and produce new products and services—we see that in the growth of apps—and already 30,000 small businesses have downloaded free record-keeping apps suited to all varieties of devices, whether tablets or smartphones.

One point that came up repeatedly and which was made by the hon. Member for East Lothian (George Kerevan) was that we are rushing this through. Let me reassure him and others that the Major Projects Authority has examined the plans and that it views them as deliverable. However, neither the Treasury nor HMRC are complacent, and we do understand that there are challenges, and I will pick up on some of them. However, it is worth noting that this is a five-year roll-out. We are engaging in substantial consultation this year. The piloting and testing of the technology and the various processes will then follow.

Phone calls were mentioned on a number of occasions. I said in the main Chamber earlier this afternoon that HMRC’s performance in January, which is traditionally a busy month, because of the self-assessment deadline, has been at a very high level. The last number I saw, which was for last week, suggested that 89% of calls were being answered and that the average waiting time is four minutes, which, it would be fair to say, is better than the historic norm for HMRC.

It is worth pointing out that the overall £1.3 billion package of investment for HMRC will allow more of its customers—not just businesses, but individuals—to go online, thus reducing calls. In addition, HMRC gets many calls about information that will in future appear in taxpayers’ digital accounts. For example, people call to find out their reference number or to chase a refund, and digital accounts will take out a large number of those calls. As I said, call centre performance is now also much improved.

My hon. Friend the Member for South Ribble (Seema Kennedy) raised the issue of sanctions. We will consult on the sanctions that will be appropriate in a digital environment. Penalties and other sanctions will not be the same as those that apply now to end-of-year returns. We will want the new process to bed in before we turn on any sanctions. There is no plan to penalise those who try to comply. I point hon. Members to HMRC’s record on the introduction of real-time information. There was a careful and measured approach to penalising people, and only deliberate non-compliance resulted in sanctions while the system was being introduced.

A couple of hon. Members asked whether quarterly updates will be required to take account of accounting adjustments for stock and work in progress, which are currently made only once a year. Detailed issues such as the allocation of capital allowances and the counting of stock levels will be addressed through consultation. I stress that all allowances, deductions and reliefs that are currently annual will remain so. Of course, for the many businesses that use cash accounting, that is much less of an issue, but I recognise that it is an issue for some businesses. Again, for issues such as work in progress, we are not requiring information quarterly.

Concerns were raised about payment. No decision has yet been made about changing payment dates. In December, alongside the “Making tax digital” road map, we published a discussion paper on options to simplify the payment of taxes. An initial consultation will take place shortly, with a further, full consultation to take place later this year.

My hon. Friend the Member for Morecambe and Lunesdale (David Morris), who does so much for the self-employed in the role he plays for the Government, raised the issue of payments following quarterly updates. Again, I stress that no decision has yet been made about changing payment dates.

Questions about how the changes will affect seasonal businesses will be addressed through this year’s consultation. Businesses trading seasonally may be due a tax refund in-year. If they update HMRC more frequently than they do now, that will allow HMRC to assess them for such a refund, so there may be a financial benefit for them. Let me also stress that the quarterly update will be based on actual information, not forecasts. I hope that that provides some reassurance.

In terms of implementation, I reassure hon. Members that we will carry out extensive testing. Roll-out to businesses will take place when the process and the design are known to work.

I touched on cash accounting earlier. About 2 million businesses operate on a cash basis and do not need to account for work in progress, stock and so on. For others, updates will provide an increasingly accurate picture through the year. However, direct taxes will remain annual taxes, so some adjustments will need to be made at the end of the year. That should, however, be less of a task than the traditional annual tax return, because much of the information will already have been pulled together.

[Chris Leslie]

I am trying to envisage what the Minister is discussing, because there is still quite a lot here that is open to consultation. Data on income and expenses would be supplied through these quarterly updates, but we might not necessarily be able to get rid of the annual return, which might still be necessary because of tax reliefs and so forth. [Interruption.] Yes, people could be doing these things five times a year—there would be one big final return and these updates along the way. Are we getting rid of the annual tax return or not?

[Mr Gauke]

The traditional annual tax return, we can get rid of. What I am saying is that, rather than starting largely from scratch and pulling all the information together, businesses that need to make adjustments at the end of the year will have already done much of that work. Now, as I say, the tax system remains an annual system, and one needs to be able to look at the year as a whole for things such as capital allowances. However, it is worth bearing it in mind that the capital expenditure of the vast majority—something like 98%—of businesses would fall within the annual investment allowance of £200,000, so that is not necessarily too much of an issue for them. However, I understand the point about work in progress.

The hon. Gentleman is absolutely right to make the point that there is still quite a lot to consult on. Sometimes, I fear that we are criticised both for rushing things, charging in and not listening and for things being a bit vague because we are still consulting on them, and there is a certain mutually exclusive element to those criticisms. However, the sense of direction is clear, and it is right that we consult on the details.