Economy: Update
Debate between Lord Agnew of Oulton and Baroness McIntosh of Hudnall(3 years, 11 months ago)
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Lord Agnew of Oulton
My Lords, first, I will address the questions from the noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, on universal credit. I am not aware of specific IT problems, but if the noble Lord is aware of any and would like to write to me, I will certainly investigate them. However, the point that my right honourable friend made yesterday is that we have responded to this crisis by introducing a number of measures to support those in receipt of universal credit—the £20 increase, the increase in housing allowance rates and the relaxation of the minimum income floor—and they all help. There is additional support for the vulnerable through the hardship fund and things such as the mortgage holiday. Therefore, we are very focused on those at the bottom of the income hierarchy and, as ever, we will keep a careful eye on developments.
Nobody is more concerned than the Chancellor at the speed at which the CBILS loans are going out, but the speed is picking up. As at 24 April, 20,000 were approved, worth £3.3 billion—double the amount of the previous week. As at 17 April, only 10,000 had been approved. Therefore, the pace is increasing and we are confident that that will continue.
The noble Lord is right that it is very easy to get drawn into the day-to-day crisis and to lose focus of what the long term will look like. We have to be honest: at this stage it is impossible to tell. We know that this is the biggest crisis that this country has faced in 80 years, and we also know that the Chancellor’s response to the crisis in economic terms has been a potential 15% of GDP, which is a staggering sum of money. We know, too, that we are likely to come out of this with a debt level higher than that following the Second World War. These are all very important factors. How we go about dealing with that debt will probably depend on a number of factors, such as the speed at which the infection rate comes down and whether we are able to observe social distancing well in an unlocked economy to which people will have to adjust.
One reason for the steep decline in the number of deaths over the last couple of weeks has been the effectiveness of social distancing. I have sat in on a lot of the Prime Minister’s morning meetings over the last few weeks. At the beginning of this process, there was real concern that the population would not be keen to observe social distancing. However, people have done a magnificent job and we know the sacrifices that it has involved. I assure the noble Lord that these things have all been thought about but I do not think that we are yet in a position to set out a detailed plan. We know that in the next few days the Prime Minister will announce more details on exiting the lockdown.
The noble Lord is absolutely right that the entertainment, hospitality and pub sector has been terribly hard hit and is likely to be vulnerable going forward. We have created specific support for the sector, with the business rates relief and a 100% holiday for retail, hospitality and leisure businesses, worth approximately £11 billion. There are also retail, hospitality and leisure grants worth up to about £5 billion. Therefore, we are very much focusing on the sector but I think that it is too early to give a more specific view of the future.
Turning to the questions raised by the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, I completely agree that the self-employed make up a vital sector. I have been self-employed—or the equivalent—for most of my working life, so I absolutely relate to the pressures that that sector is under. I respectfully do not agree with the noble Baroness about accepting dividend income as a part of people’s earnings. That method of income was chosen by people for the very simple reason that they would not have to pay the national insurance premium. However, they will be eligible for the bounce-back loans, as well as the other layers of support.
I absolutely accept that key workers, particularly those working in care homes, are not well remunerated. Our track record over the last few years of moving the minimum wage upwards as fast as we have done is an indication of our support for this very important group of people. We absolutely recognise—
The Deputy Speaker (Baroness McIntosh of Hudnall) (Lab)
We appear to have lost the Minister temporarily. Are you still with us, Lord Agnew? I think that in the circumstances—
The Deputy Speaker
Can the Minister confirm that he has concluded his remarks before I move on?
The Deputy Speaker
We now come to the 30 minutes allocated for Back-Bench questions. It would be appreciated if questions and, indeed, answers could be kept concise so that as many people as possible can contribute. I call Lord Vaux of Harrowden.
Lord Agnew of Oulton
I am afraid the noble Lord rather broke up on me. Madam Deputy Speaker, did you hear the question?
The Deputy Speaker
I heard it, but I am not sure that I could repeat it. If the noble Lord, Lord Vaux, could give the salient points very briefly, that would be helpful.
The Deputy Speaker
We seem to have some difficulty with the participation of the noble Lord, Lord Agnew. I wonder whether it would be advisable for us to pause for a moment to see whether we can establish a better connection.
The Deputy Speaker
If that would establish a better connection, it would be very much appreciated, Lord Agnew. We will pause until you are able to do that.
The Deputy Speaker
I will seek clarification on that point, but I anticipate that we will be able to do that. Now we have the noble Lord, Lord Agnew, again—splendid. Would you kindly say a few words so that we can be sure that everyone can hear you?
Lord Agnew of Oulton
Yes. I can repeat the bit of the question in which the noble Lord, Lord Fox, was worried about a wall of cash when the furlough ended, but I caught only about a third of what he said.