Finance (No. 2) Bill

Lord Forsyth of Drumlean Excerpts

Thursday 26th March 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Davies of Oldham (Lab)]

My Lords, we live in a strangely surreal world with regard to this Finance Bill. My noble friends and noble Lords on the government side will recall when they were in the other place long days and nights spent on Finance Bills, watching dawn break across the river as we struggled with the issues presented by their depth and significance. This Finance Bill went through the Commons in one day. The Budget was debated. There was a very good debate in the other place over several days. Of course, yesterday in this House we had four hours of excellent contributions to the general issue of the economy and what the Budget represented in relation to that economy. But I can scarcely for the life of me engender the same degree of intense scrutiny of this one little Bill. Even the Minister was able to dispatch it in 20 minutes or so.

In any case, this Finance Bill is a pretty mean-spirited effort. The Chancellor tried to boast and establish the fact that living standards were not lower than they had been in 2010. It is a strange thing to boast about—that there has been no growth in living standards since that time. In the area where he suggested that there had been some progress, others, such as the Resolution Foundation think tank, challenged his figures and indicated that far from there being income growth for people, incomes had fallen.

We know who has been hardest hit over these past five years—young people, in particular, and middle-aged people with low-paid jobs. There are plenty of those about. We know that there are 1.8 million zero-hours contract jobs at present. I do not know how the Government can be proud of a low-wage economy that has slumped to that level but that is what faces us. When the Minister blithely says that the Government are increasing the personal allowance, he ignores the fact that for 5 million people that is utterly and totally irrelevant as they do not earn enough to pay tax. The changes in the allowance are of absolutely no relevance to them at all. However, the more you earn, of course, the more relevant the changes become. It is typical of the Government to look after the better-off while doing very little to help the less well-off.

What does this mean-spirited little Bill mean? We had the Chancellor trying to talk about success in a land where food banks proliferate. In my old stomping ground of Oldham, rickets has emerged in recent months. Is that the society over which this Government wish to preside? Are the Government content that the pay of chief executives of FTSE companies and of some people in the public sector has increased to the extent that it has while those at the other end of the spectrum experience the difficulties that I have mentioned? We know of chief executives in local authorities who earn considerably more than the Prime Minister. We are also well aware that high salaries are paid to some officeholders whose posts were never distinguished by high earnings in the past. For example, a university vice-chancellor can earn £640,000 a year. I have great respect for British universities. They have done tremendously good work. However, one has to ask questions about the relationship between vice-chancellors and the rest of the scholastic community when their incomes almost equal those of FTSE chief executives. One also has to ask questions about the differential between vice-chancellors’ pay and the average pay of university staff. We hoped that the Government would address some of these issues. When they did address them, on the whole they rewarded the very rich with further tax cuts.

I am grateful for the fact that three of my noble friends have spoken in this debate. I note that no one from the government Back-Benches thinks that it is worth speaking in support of this Bill, although their presence may be an enthusiastic endorsement of what the Government are doing. However, it is a pretty limited endorsement. At least, three of my noble friends have sought to address the Bill. In all honesty, their talents would have been better deployed yesterday because my noble friend Lord Haskel, who spoke so eloquently about the fundamental issue of productivity, a phrase which I do not think passed the Chancellor’s lips at all—

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

I am most grateful to the noble Lord. If this is such a bad Bill, which parts of it would he reverse if his party were to win the next election?

[Lord Davies of Oldham]

Not a great deal. I am not arguing that it is such a bad Bill but that it is such an irrelevant Bill. It contains absolutely nothing of any significance. As I said, my noble friend Lord Haskel alighted on productivity, but that was not mentioned at all in the Chancellor’s speech. However, as my noble friend clearly identified, we have to see improvement in that area if Britain is to earn its way in the world. We cannot be ignorant of our current balance of trade problems.

I listened carefully to what my noble friend Lord Desai argued. He put his case with considerable force and I hope it will get a sympathetic response from those who will lead the next Labour Government after the general election and that they will acknowledge some of the cogent points he made.

My noble friend Lord Soley is absolutely right to say that we need to concentrate on growth. However, as we established yesterday, the Government spent the first three years in office dissipating any potential for growth, and we even dropped back from the growth levels obtained by the Labour Government in their last year in office. There is, of course, growth this year, just before the general election. It is just like the Government’s public expenditure plans: there will be three years of vicious cuts—greater cuts in three years than the country has suffered in five—but there will be a certain easing back by 2018-19 in preparation for the next general election.

The Chancellor has a reputation for being political. He has certainly earned it in this tawdry little Bill.

Corporation Tax (Northern Ireland) Bill

Lord Forsyth of Drumlean Excerpts

Tuesday 17th March 2015 Lords Chamber

[The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Wales Office (Baroness Randerson) (LD)]

My Lords, it is very appropriate that we are discussing this Bill on St Patrick’s Day. I take this opportunity to wish noble Lords a happy St Patrick’s Day.

I shall start by highlighting the history behind the policy enshrined in this Bill. Since 2010, the UK Government and Northern Ireland Executive have shared a common objective to rebalance the Northern Ireland economy away from overdependence on the public sector and to drive faster economic growth. In 2011 this Government published a consultation document Rebalancing the Northern Ireland Economy. Among other things, the consultation considered the possibility of devolving corporation tax powers to the Executive and Assembly. Responses to that consultation from the business community and Northern Ireland political parties nearly unanimously supported the devolution of corporation tax.

After considerable work on the detail and technical work needed to make this measure possible, this Bill was introduced in the Commons on 8 January. The proposals will allow the Northern Ireland Executive and the Northern Ireland Assembly to set a different rate of corporation tax from the rest of the UK for most types of trading profits arising in Northern Ireland. The tax base, including reliefs and exemptions, will remain under the control of the UK Government. The earliest financial year for which Northern Ireland could set its own rate is 2017. This will allow time for businesses and agents to become familiar with the new rules.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

Can my noble friend tell me why this Bill—unlike for example the measures that gave income tax powers to the Scottish Parliament—has been certified as a money Bill and therefore all its stages have to be taken at once?

[Baroness Randerson]

I understand the noble Lord’s point, and indeed there are clearly constitutional issues in relation to this Bill, but it has been certified as a money Bill by the Speaker of the other place. It is important to bear in mind that unlike the other legislation to which my noble friend refers, this is a simple measure that deals entirely with one issue. I am sure my noble friend will agree it is a highly technical Bill and therefore akin to many other money Bills this House deals with.

I will go briefly over the aim of this policy and the key measures within this Bill. Northern Ireland has a unique economic position within the UK. It shares a land border with the very low corporation tax environment of the Republic of Ireland. It is more dependent on the public sector, with around 30% working there, compared with about 20% in the rest of the UK. Economic prosperity—GVA per capita—is persistently some 20% below the UK average, and has been for a number of decades and it has to deal with the challenging legacy of the Troubles.

Devolving corporation tax recognises these unique challenges. The Northern Ireland regime has been carefully designed to enable the Executive to encourage genuine investment that will create jobs and growth, while minimising opportunities for avoidance and profit shifting. It balances this with the need to keep the costs of a reduced rate proportionate, both for the Executive and in relation to any additional administrative burdens for businesses.

The design of the regime builds on the principles agreed in 2012 by the Joint Ministerial Working Group which included Ministers from HM Treasury, the Northern Ireland Office and the Northern Ireland Executive. Companies trading in Northern Ireland will attract a Northern Ireland rate on their qualifying trading profits only. Companies will continue to pay the UK rate on their profits from non-trading activities which do not generate jobs or economic growth in the same way.

The rules are designed to deter businesses from seeking to exploit, through profit shifting and avoidance, a rate differential between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. The regime will not provide opportunities for brass-plating. Because they offer significant scope for profit shifting without the benefits of bringing substantial new jobs, the regime does not extend to profits from financial trading activity, such as lending and reinsurance. However, the policy recognises the genuine growth and employment potential for Northern Ireland offered by back-office functions, so companies with excluded profits from certain financial trades may make a one-off election to bring a notional profit attributable to the back-office functions of those excluded trades within the Northern Ireland rate.

To reduce the administrative burdens for SMEs, a special regime exists for them. A simple in-out test will mean that the majority of the companies will be spared the burden and cost of apportioning profits. More than 97% of SMEs operating in Northern Ireland meet the 75% employment test threshold and will benefit from the Northern Ireland regime.

Although this measure should go a long way in helping the Executive to encourage genuine investment that will create jobs and growth, the Government have been clear that devolving corporation tax is not an end in itself. For the full potential benefit of corporation tax devolution to be recognised, there are a number of other areas of reform that need to be addressed, such as education, skills and infrastructure.

The Stormont House agreement set out that the progress of this Bill through Parliament would proceed in parallel with implementation of key measures to deliver sustainable finances. These include agreeing and delivering a 2015-16 budget that works; progressing the Welfare Reform Bill in the Assembly; and taking the steps required to put the Executive’s finances on a stable footing for the long term. The Northern Ireland Executive agreed their budget for 2015-16, passing their Budget Bill on 24 February, and the Welfare Reform Bill also passed through further consideration stage of the Assembly on the 24 February. Sinn Fein has since withdrawn its support of the Welfare Reform Bill through its final stage in the Assembly. There can be no doubt that this decision was a setback, and the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland chaired a meeting of the party leaders last week in an attempt to help them to resolve the situation. The party leaders have since held further talks, and the Secretary of State proposes to convene another meeting with them later this week.

Changes to the welfare system in Northern Ireland were a key part of the Stormont House agreement and, as the Secretary of State has made clear, it remains pivotal that all aspects of the agreement are implemented. In simple terms, the Executive’s budget for 2015-16 does not balance without progress on these important issues. The Stormont House agreement was a major step forward and, although there has been good progress since the beginning of year, there were bound to be bumps in the road. The Government remain determined to implement the agreement and propose to continue with the progress of the corporation tax legislation through this House. The legislation contains a commencement clause, and commencement will not take place until the conditions set out in the Stormont House agreement have been met and changes to the welfare system in Northern Ireland have been implemented. This means the devolved power will be “switched on” for the planned start date of April 2017 only if the Executive are delivering their side of the agreement, including achieving sustainable public finances.

The unique challenges faced by Northern Ireland have been recognised by all parties. This Bill will allow the Northern Ireland Executive greater power to rebalance the economy towards a stronger private sector, boosting employment, growth and the standard of living in Northern Ireland, with benefits for the wider UK.

I therefore hope that noble Lords will give this Bill a Second Reading.

[Lord McAvoy (Lab)]

My Lords, the Labour Opposition welcome and support the Bill and will do everything we can to facilitate its passage. However, that does not mean that we are not looking for further answers to questions that were asked in the House of Commons.

The Minister mentioned action to prevent “brass-plating”, as it has become known. We would like a bit more detail on how that would be stopped. She mentioned rebalancing the Northern Ireland economy. Concerns were expressed in the other place by the honourable Margaret Ritchie about regional imbalance within Northern Ireland, so that issue needs to be addressed.

Before I go any further, I should indicate again that we fully support the Government in looking to the parties in the Northern Ireland Assembly to implement the Stormont agreement. That is part of the deal, and we support the Government in insisting that the Stormont House agreement be implemented.

Some concerns remain that we would like to probe a little further. When government Ministers were asked about the effect of the devolution of corporation tax on the block grant, there was no real response to that. I merely repeat the question that was asked in another place: why were no models done? For example, if corporation tax was set at level X, what would be the effect on the block grant? I do not think that is too demanding a question to ask. Models should have been drawn up so that folk could have a better grasp of what will transpire in this area.

I share the sober assessment that this measure will not solve Northern Ireland’s economic problems or provide the necessary rebalancing of its economy. However, it should be implemented to try to rebalance the economy, as the Minister mentioned.

I want to spend a few minutes on the trade-off between a reduction in corporation tax and spending cuts. The impact of this legislation will need careful managing to ensure that it does not benefit only already wealthy people at the top and does not further perpetuate existing income inequality in Northern Ireland. This should not become a rich man’s Bill.

The importance of funding education in Northern Ireland cannot be overstated. Without adequate investment in education and apprenticeships, jobs and productivity will never increase. If Northern Ireland reduces its corporation tax rate to that of the Republic of Ireland, it will lose at least £300 million from its block grant. That figure was given by the government Minister in the other place. I believe in devolution and giving the Stormont Assembly responsibility for running its affairs, but that agreement should contain safeguards to make sure that there is no dramatic effect on the services that have been mentioned. The devolution of corporation tax—

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

How can the noble Lord say that he supports the Bill and at the same time say that there should be no dramatic effect, when the effect of the Bill will be to reduce the amount of tax paid by profitable businesses if corporation tax was equalised, as he said, by between £300 million and £350 million, which would be money not available for spending on public services? So the necessity is that there will be less money for public services and more money in the pockets of profitable businesses.

[Lord McAvoy]

There is a bit of role reversal going on here. It is me who is supposed to attack the capitalists, not the noble Lord or the Minister. I am starting to feel a bit dizzy.

That is the balance that it is hoped to be reached. The noble Lord shakes his head. I would say to him, “O ye of little faith”. There will be a vested interest for Stormont Ministers to make sure that they balance extra corporation tax against a reduction in the block grant. I fully agree that one has to be very careful here so that this does not result in less money for services but we have been assured that there will be no dramatic impact, and I am always willing to listen to government Ministers. The noble Lord, Lord Newby, is looking a bit puzzled. I hope that he will comment on that point.

Has there been any study or consideration—perhaps the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth of Drumlean, is right—of how the volatility of corporation tax might impact on Northern Ireland’s economy? That is a valid concern. While devolution is devolution, we are devolving the power and are therefore looking for some kind of guarantee in this matter. We hope that its devolution goes ahead in 2017, but a potential stumbling block is that Northern Ireland’s finances must be on a stable footing. It concerns us that we do not know the precise fiscal conditionality required before the Government devolve this power. Can they make any estimate of the resulting decrease in the block grant? There are various calculations, but I would like the Treasury people to have looked at that.

I repeat, in case of doubt, that we support the Bill. In the other place, highly contentious remarks were made to the effect that Labour had done a U-turn because it had previously attacked the devolution of corporation tax. That is quite untrue. We have expressed legitimate concerns, but if anyone wishes to pursue that point, perhaps they could turn to the minutes of the Public Bill Committee, where Nic Dakin asked the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland whether she had seen comment by the Institute for Fiscal Studies that,

“Corporation tax is not a good candidate for devolution”?

The Secretary of State replied that there were risks. The Labour Opposition are not using scare tactics but asking legitimate questions. This process is not the be-all and end-all but could and should be a helpful tool for Northern Ireland.

Briefly on the background to all this, Laurence Robertson, chair of the Northern Ireland Select Committee in the other place, indicated that when the committee was in the United States of America recently it watched violent scenes on the streets of Belfast and Northern Ireland, involving fires and smoke-bombs. That is the biggest turn-off when trying to attract industry into Northern Ireland. There is a two-way street here: devolution is coming from this place, after consideration, but there also has to be a payback, if you like, by people trying to work together—hard as that may be because the past is always there. The damage being done by those scenes is quite substantial.

We hope that this is a contribution to further periods of peace and stability in Northern Ireland. Going back in history, I think that great credit is due to Sir John Major for initiating this process and to Tony Blair and his team for pursuing it. It is to be hoped that the devolution of corporation tax will be a further measure along the road to peace and stability in Northern Ireland.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Alderdice (LD)]

My Lords, it is a great pleasure to follow the noble Lord, Lord Hay of Ballyore. I have been looking forward to his maiden speech for some time. He succeeded me as Speaker of the Northern Ireland Assembly, and when it was announced in August last year that he would be coming to your Lordships’ House, I thought, “That is wonderful”. It has taken quite a while, but that is because he has had something of a scare. Sometimes when people are appointed to your Lordships’ House they say, “My goodness, I was so surprised that I nearly had a heart attack”. The noble Lord took that further than most people, which set him back a bit, so it is wonderful to see him in this House and to hear him speak.

Colleagues will know of the noble Lord’s long and distinguished public service in Northern Ireland. He was elected to Londonderry City Council in 1981, became deputy mayor of the city in 1992 and mayor in 1993. He was elected to the Northern Ireland Assembly just after the formation of the Belfast agreement in 1998 and went on to be appointed Speaker in 2007. He served for some seven years until the latter part of last year. He has done a lot of other things as well. He was a member of the Northern Ireland Policing Board, the Northern Ireland Housing Council and the Londonderry port authority. He has held many distinguished positions, but what noble Lords may not necessarily know about—because it is not the kind of thing that is recorded in Wikipedia, Dod’s or whatever—is the kind of work that the noble Lord has done quietly and privately but most significantly, especially in the city of Londonderry. There have been many difficulties, but as a member of the Orange Order and of the Apprentice Boys of Derry, quietly and behind the scenes he has forged remarkable friendships. He has demonstrated real leadership and—I make no criticism of his party here—he was prepared to go out in front of his party on occasion to lead it on to developing relationships with people in the nationalist and republican community which later would become an everyday matter. He was out in front and doing these things in a quiet and thoughtful way.

Consider his experience in the Northern Ireland Assembly. I know, from talking to members of all political parties, staff in the Speaker’s office and staff in the clerking department, that he is held in great affection and regarded with great appreciation for the quiet, thoughtful work that he does. This House will find that he will continue that kind of public service here. He is a man of great courtesy and thoughtfulness, but also a man of real determination to make things better for his community.

One of the other distinctive things about him, which makes St Patrick’s Day a particularly appropriate day for him to come here, is that he is an Irish citizen. He was born in Milford, in County Donegal. One does not necessarily associate noble Lords from the Democratic Unionist Party with Irish citizens, although one never knows what the future may hold. For him, it is a very distinctive feature, and he comes here on St Patrick’s Day as an Irish citizen.

Of course, this is an important day for the Corporation Tax (Northern Ireland) Bill as well. The noble Lord, Lord Hay, knows, because of his experience on both sides of the border, that the relationship between north and south was one of the important strands that we were trying to address in the Belfast agreement. One of the economic dilemmas we have faced is that corporation tax on the other side of the land frontier is much lower than in Northern Ireland. It has been one of the great successes that led to the Celtic Tiger, with its positive and difficult sides, but it is an important challenge for us economically in Northern Ireland.

My noble friend raised some questions as to whether this was just a money Bill or whether there were other elements to it and whether the Speaker of the other place had gone a little far in his certification of the Bill. As a former Speaker speaking just after a former Speaker, I do not think the noble Lord would expect me to question what the Speaker in another place would say, but there is more to the Bill than simply the question of money. No one, I think, would believe that the Bill on its own will address all the economic problems of Northern Ireland—far from it—but there is an important principle here. There are those in Northern Ireland who seek better relations with the Republic of Ireland economically, politically, socially and otherwise. It is very important that nationalists and republicans have it put to them that it is possible to move to greater tax harmony north and south of the border, but there are economic realities if you do that.

In Scotland, which my noble friend comes from, the Scots Nats have for years been claiming they wanted more powers, but they never used the income tax powers that they were given in the legislation of devolution. Had they not been given them, they would of course have complained. Here is the opportunity for nationalist and republican politicians, along with Unionist, Democratic Unionist and Alliance politicians, to face up to the political and economic challenges of instituting a corporation tax rate that is closer to that of the Republic of Ireland and different from that of the rest of the United Kingdom.

This is where we move from institutions of power sharing to the reality of responsibility sharing. We saw the dilemma of that just before Christmas last year, when the issue of welfare came forward, with all its social and financial implications. It was a real hurdle for people in the nationalist and republican communities to overcome.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

I am most grateful to my noble friend. I apologise for interrupting him, but as he has mentioned the Scottish position, I am, unusually for me, defending the Scottish Nationalists. The reason that the tartan tax powers were never used, by way of explanation for them, was that they could only set the rate. They could not change the allowances. This is precisely the position in the Bill, which allows Northern Ireland only to set the rate, while the allowances and all the other conditions are set centrally. Does it not have the same problem that prevented the Scots from doing so?

[Lord Alderdice]

No, it is not. I think it is the same problem, but I do not think that is the reason the Scottish Nationalists did not go down that road. I think the reason was they like to eat their cake and have it. They liked the possibility of being able to complain that they do not have the power to do things, but then, when they have the power, but there is an actual cost to doing it, they do not do it. I think we will find exactly the same thing in Northern Ireland. We had this dilemma over the Stormont House agreement. Nationalists and republicans signed up for the agreement and knew perfectly well that the sums did not add up. Then, when there came to be a bit of pressure and people asked, “Well, how does this actually work out?”, they backed off from it, and now they will find themselves having to move forward. The truth is that the peace process is less like riding a bicycle and more like playing an accordion, where people move backwards and forwards instead of straightforwardly. That is the reality of politics.

The Bill does not devolve corporation tax; it makes it possible for the devolution of corporation tax to take place—if there is responsible, political and economic governance in Northern Ireland, if there is a responsible budget that adds up, if parties then look at it and want the power, and if they then decide to implement it. In fairness, the world has changed economically over the last number of years and corporation tax in the Republic of Ireland may not stay at its current level, but in a sense those are secondary issues. This is about people having power to act responsibly and a responsibility to share that power in a serious fashion, taking into account all the dilemmas that are present.

On this St Patrick’s Day, when we share our patron saint as we share the piece of territory and the politics of the island, with different perspectives and different views but nevertheless with a sense of vision and hope for the future, with all the difficulties and dilemmas that we have, this is an opportunity to challenge my colleagues at home to use the power and responsibility that are being offered to take us forward. I hope that none of us here or there will be found wanting in that regard.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

My Lords, I hesitate to intervene in a debate on a Bill which is exclusively concerned with Northern Ireland. I do so because I am opposed to the Bill because I do not believe that it is a unionist measure. Indeed, in the Second Reading debate in the other place on 27 January, the Secretary of State, Theresa Villiers, in describing the proposed regime, which is different for small businesses and large businesses, said:

“Larger businesses will need to divide their profits between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, as they do now between the UK and other countries”.—[Official Report, Commons, 27/1/15; col. 744.]

The very fact that she should use phraseology like that goes to the heart of this Bill and to why it is thoroughly undesirable.

I realise that it is perhaps a little rude to be critical of a legislative provision for Northern Ireland on St Patrick’s Day, but on St Andrew’s Day we had the policy of further, not-thought-through devolution to Scotland, on Burns Night, we got the draft clauses which were subsequently amended and which do not work and on St David’s Day, we got votes for 16 year-olds as part of this continuing package of piecemeal dismantling of our constitution and our United Kingdom. All I can say is: thank goodness St George’s Day will be during the election campaign and there will be no opportunity to come along with further measures that relate to England.

Obviously there is great support from people who have a distinguished record of representing Northern Irish interests but I am genuinely puzzled as to what the point of this Bill is. Apart from it being called the Corporation Tax (Northern Ireland) Bill and the Speaker of the House of Commons having certified it as a money Bill, I can think of no reason why it should be a money Bill other than it enables the Government to rush it through Parliament as part of the deal they made for a balanced budget in Northern Ireland and for agreement to welfare reforms which are now being reneged on. Indeed, my noble friend said from the Dispatch Box in introducing this Bill that the Government have no intention of implementing it unless the deal they agreed, which is the reason this Bill is being rushed through the House, is actually met. This is a very shoddy way in which to go about major constitutional reform.

A number of things are being said, such as the Republic of Ireland benefiting because of its lower corporation tax regime. It is true that the corporation tax regime for some revenues is 12.5% but it is 25% for revenue that is not allowed. The reason this Bill takes 87 pages to allow Stormont to set the rate of corporation tax and prevent it from setting or changing any of the allowances is because it adds huge complexity to the tax system. Back in 2005 the then shadow Chancellor asked me to do a tax commission report. We laboured for a year and were charged with having a simpler, flatter, fairer, lower tax system. This is the antithesis of that. There are pages and pages explaining how dredging, films or a whole range of other activities will be affected and how large companies have to decide which of their profits have been earned as a direct result of Northern Ireland. I declare an interest as a director of a bank and an insurance company. Financial services are not allowed to take advantage of this although I think that if you can certify that 70% of the back-office activity is in Northern Ireland it is allowed, but only as a one-off option. What about call centres and things of that kind? The Bill creates huge complexity, which may very well tempt people to go to Scotland where they do not have to have two sets of accounts rather than Northern Ireland. All of this is being done in order to give Stormont the opportunity to set a different corporation tax rate. We assume, if it is about tax competition, that that rate would be set closer to the level of the Republic of Ireland for trading activities at 12.5%. According to the Government the cost of that will be £325 million. My noble friend Lord Shipley talked about distortions in air passenger duty. I think I am right in saying that Stormont already has the power to set air passenger duty but does not because it would cost £50 million to do so. Yet here we have something that could cost—

[Lord Empey]

The air passenger duty issue was designed to enable the link between Belfast International Airport and New York to survive. It has been applied only to that route because it is the only direct route from Northern Ireland to the United States. No attempt has been made to alter domestic air passenger duty.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

I understand that. I was making the point, perhaps wrongly, that one reason why it has not been done is that it would result in a reduction in the block grant—the point made so eloquently by the noble Baroness, Lady Blood. I think that my noble friend Lord Alderdice earlier referred to the position in Scotland, where the Scottish Parliament allowed its income tax raising powers to desist. They were never used. The reason they were never used was that using them would have resulted in a corresponding reduction in the block grant. It is not terribly electorally smart to tell people that you are going to put their income tax rate up by 3p and, in return, you are going to have the block grant—which is already very generous because of the Barnett formula—reduced by exactly the same amount, so you ask people to pay more tax in order to stay where they are. Exactly the same applies here, unless you believe that a reduction in corporation tax will result in more revenue. I do believe that that is the case, but I would prefer to see this Government, who have made fantastic progress in reducing the rate of corporation tax for the United Kingdom as a whole down to 20p for the next financial year, continue in that way. If we think that there is such a huge problem in tax competition from the Republic of Ireland, the answer to that is to reduce our corporation tax rates nearer those of the Republic of Ireland. But we do not do that because the cost would mean that we would have to make cuts in other public services, such as health and education. Exactly the same applies to Stormont.

[Lord Alderdice]

I am very grateful to my noble friend for giving way. The problem that I have found is that these changes are not made because they do not work for the Treasury here in London, and it regards the value for people in Northern Ireland to be far too small an issue, one that does not get any attention paid to it. That is the reason. The reason for the air passenger duty with respect to the United States is because it is so easy for people to go across the border and to fly out of Dublin. The whole point is that there is a land border. If Scotland was to leave the United Kingdom, I think that you would find that a lot of those kinds of changes became relevant. But it is very important to understand that the situation in Northern Ireland is quite different from that in Scotland, because it is so small, does not have a large financial industry and has a land border. Those are the many reasons why read-across to Scotland does not work, with due deference to my noble friend.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

I think that the argument about the land border is overemphasised. I happen to know that people fly from Scotland to Dublin to go on international flights because the flights from Dublin are priced by the airlines at a very much lower rate. That has nothing whatever to do with air passenger duty or taxation and everything to do with the view of the commercial airlines of what the market will bear for their fares. It is a very simple thing to hop on an aeroplane—there are about six or seven a day out of Edinburgh and as many out of Glasgow—to go to Dublin and then to fly to wherever you want to go, to Hong Kong or the United States or wherever. So I do not think that that argument holds water; but perhaps that is a mixed metaphor, because my noble friend is arguing that it is about a land border.

I am totally opposed to giving air passenger duty powers to the Scottish Parliament because it will have a catastrophic effect on Newcastle and the rest of the north of England. Already the amount that we pay in taxes is very considerable. I am arguing that as a United Kingdom we should have a unitary tax system and that this tinkering is absolutely inimical to maintaining a United Kingdom. If as a United Kingdom we believe that reducing corporation tax will result in more revenue and business development, that should be the policy for the United Kingdom.

The noble Lord, Lord McAvoy, chided me for attacking capitalism when it was his job. I was merely pointing out to him the inconsistency of his position. If he supports this Bill and argues that he is in favour of these reductions in corporation tax to help business expand and grow, he cannot at the same time satisfy the noble Baroness, Lady Blood, in her concern about the impact—even if you believe, as I believe, that cutting the top rate of tax from 50% to 45% has resulted in revenues going up by £8.5 billion. I believe that tax cuts can have a dynamic effect. Similarly, when the Liberal Democrats insisted on putting up capital gains tax from 18% to 29%, what happened? The revenue went down by several billion pounds. My noble friend nods; I apologise for not being very positive. However, even if you believe that that is not the case, there is a time lag, and in between times you do not have the money and you have to take that money away from public services. The noble Baroness made that point. I do not think that will be particularly popular and it seems a very strange approach to a situation where people cannot agree on balancing the budget and on meeting their obligations as it is. So I think this Bill is a deal and a piece of constitutional tinkering which is misguided in its approach.

As a Scot, I am worried because I have not heard a single argument here today, other than there is a land border, which will enable me to fend off the devo-max brigade in Scotland and the nationalists who are now running rampant in the polls. The latest poll has them on 55%. That has all been caused by raising expectations and confusing two things—that is, confusing more powers with more money. Everyone in this Chamber knows that having more powers will actually mean less money, but it is being sold to the voters—I suspect that it may well have been sold in this way in Northern Ireland—that if their parliament has more powers, they will have better education and health services and better everything else. However, that is a fantasy. When people wake up to the fact that this is a misguided fantasy, they will blame London and our United Kingdom will be fractured. Therefore, I am very disappointed by this Bill.

However, I agree with my noble friends Lord Alderdice and Lord Trimble on the importance of stimulating the private sector. Scotland also has too large a public sector and we need to encourage business, but corporation tax is paid only by profitable businesses and businesses which are generating capital for investment. However, lots of businesses are struggling. If you want to encourage businesses and cut taxes—that is a priority—why not deal with business rates and levels of national insurance, as I hope my right honourable friend the Chancellor will tomorrow? Corporation tax is a very odd choice indeed.

For all that is said about the success of the tiger economy in the Republic of Ireland, corporation tax receipts went up so dramatically in the Republic when the rates were low because lots of businesses operating in the United Kingdom repatriated their profits to the Republic. According to leaks that have emerged before the Budget, the Chancellor says that he will take action against the Amazons and others who organise their affairs so that they pay tax in low corporation tax countries. The Government seem to be trying to have it both ways.

By the way, no one has mentioned the impact of all this on the Barnett formula. The Labour leader in Scotland is saying that if people vote nationalist, they will lose Barnett. If you continue to devolve more and more tax-raising powers to the constituent parts of the United Kingdom, by definition you will erode and lose Barnett. As was pointed out in the earlier part of the debate, we also have to think about why there is such a disparity in grant to the constituent parts of the United Kingdom. Therefore, as we go down this road, we must move towards a more needs-based system of funding which again will put pressure on Northern Ireland and the public services. So I am with the noble Lord, Lord McAvoy, in arguing that we need a constitutional convention and we need to look at these things as a whole and not on a bit-by-bit basis. Does the noble Lord wish to intervene?

[Lord McAvoy]

Very briefly. The noble Lord has made an excellent case. If he cares to cross the Floor, we will always find room for him.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

I suggest to the noble Lord that the Labour Party in Scotland is in enough trouble without me adding to its difficulties.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Davies of Oldham (Lab)]

My Lords, this has been a fascinating debate, in which two obvious problems with the Bill have been identified that might not have been entirely anticipated. They broadened the debate to such an extent that I sympathise with the Minister responding to it. The breadth that has developed is obvious enough. First, questions have been directed to points of such substantial detail that we want answers this evening because this is a money Bill and we have no chance to press the issues any further. Therefore, I hope that the noble Lord—I know how scrupulous he is in observing time limits when he is winding up—will indulge himself sufficiently to respond to those very detailed points, one of which I will refer to in a moment, so that we can make as much progress as we can before we pass the Bill, defined as it is as a money Bill, by taking all its stages after Second Reading.

The second aspect that has broadened things was raised by the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth. He was not alone in this respect, although he probably presented the most challenging dimension on it. The noble Lord, Lord Shipley, accurately reflected this as well. They said that the Bill raises issues relating to devolution powers and the position of the United Kingdom.

I am absolutely delighted to welcome the contribution of the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, on the prospects of a convention immediately after the election. He has only to vote Labour and he will help with that. Unfortunately, he is not allowed to but perhaps he can persuade the other members of his family to vote Labour to ensure that we have a convention after the election.

The noble Lord, Lord Shipley, also identified in his very useful contribution that there are real issues at stake here. I do not doubt that the noble Lord, Lord Newby, will be somewhat reluctant to indulge in that part of the debate to a very large extent. However, it is clear that this is a further step towards devolution, which is welcomed on all sides. We heard in all speeches—and know from the deliberations in Northern Ireland, particularly in the business community—that people are in favour of this measure. Of course, as the noble Lord, Lord Bew, indicated, that might be on the basis of a fairly limited perspective on what the implications are for devolution and the position of the United Kingdom as a whole—the interaction of the parts. We heard some very challenging contributions today. It is a great pity that we are able to raise them only in the context of a Second Reading debate that concludes very shortly.

Of course, we support the Bill and will give every assistance to its progressing satisfactorily. However, we have anxieties about it. Noble Lords raised the question of the trade-off between this and the block grant. Extending wider than that, there is the whole question of devolution arrangements as well. The Barnett formula came into the debate, too. We have anxieties on those issues and the Minister must recognise that when the Bill goes through, the hoped-for increase in revenue in due course will be balanced against the block grant. I hope he will appreciate that this has considerable ramifications for the Northern Ireland public.

My noble friend Lady Blood emphasised the fact that loss of resources for government might crucially affect the amount that the Government are able to invest in, for example, training and education. These are clearly issues of great importance to making a strategy for increasing the private sector’s capacity to compete successfully. Reference was made to the days of the Republic of Ireland tiger, but it was not just the business rate taxation that was crucial to Ireland. A great deal was made of that, of course. As the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, reflected, certain companies hived themselves off to the Republic to take advantage of that, but other factors at play also made the Republic attractive at that time. Northern Ireland has a clearly important task to fulfil in matching up in certain respects.

That is why we are concerned about the effect of this. The Government have made it clear that there is a delaying timetable for the implementation of this measure. It is dependent on the Northern Ireland community, particularly the Assembly at Stormont, reaching an agreement that gives the Government confidence that there is fiscal security in the economy, and gives strength to that economy. Two years is a pretty short timetable to make that demand—it is a pretty substantial demand as well. The Minister must flesh out what his tests are for this demand being met before corporation tax reduction powers are vested in Northern Ireland.

None of us regards corporation tax as a panacea. It can play its part, and we are aware of the strength of opinion in the business community that it will help, but it is not a panacea for the economy; much more substantial improvements need to be made as far as the Northern Ireland economy is concerned. Therefore, the only thing I can say to the Government is that I understand their need for delay—they want to get the Bill through before this Parliament concludes and so they built in the delay before implementation—but delay is no friend in circumstances where things are not improving as rapidly as one would hope.

I hope the Minister will address these issues and at least have a shot at the broader constitutional problems.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

I wonder whether the noble Lord, Lord Davies, can help me by answering the question that I put to his noble friend Lord McAvoy. I am just a bit puzzled. Of course the business community welcomes the Bill, because profitable businesses will pay less tax at the expense of the resources that are available for public services. Why is the Labour Party supporting such a measure?

[Lord Davies of Oldham]

My Lords, we see that there is support in Northern Ireland for the Bill, which will give some chance of rebalancing the economy to a certain extent. We are in favour of that, but recognise that the development of the Northern Ireland economy, as with all the other parts of the United Kingdom, will depend on much more fundamental issues than the rate of corporation tax. That is why we regard this as a marginal Bill in these terms. However, it would be fruitless of us to object to it, although I accept his point about why we did not address ourselves to other issues, rather than the reduction of corporation tax. He will know, because he is so well informed on Labour Party policy, that we propose to increase the corporation tax rate for the rest of the United Kingdom, with the specific objective of reducing business rates for small and medium-sized businesses. We think that is a quicker and more effective way of giving stimulus to the business community. There we are: on two areas of policy, the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, and I are in full agreement. I did not expect to say that this evening.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

If it is the policy of the noble Lord, Lord Davies, that it is better to reduce business rates and that that should be applied to the rest of the United Kingdom, why is it not his policy to do that in Northern Ireland? If he believes that that is the right approach, why is he proposing something that he rejects as being the right approach in the rest of the United Kingdom?

[Lord Davies of Oldham]

My Lords, has the noble Lord not noticed that I am speaking from the opposition Benches? We are not in a position where we can implement our policies at present. It is only a matter of a short delay, as the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, will readily appreciate. But at this stage, the Government put Bills before us and this is the Bill we have. I have only two alternatives: to reject the Bill whatever its benefits, or to accept it but state that we can do better. That is exactly what I have argued.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Newby]

That is accepted. My noble friend makes a very strong point.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

No, it is not accepted. My noble friend said that by giving more powers to Northern Ireland, and with it more responsibility, the case for breaking away from the United Kingdom will be blunted. That is precisely the argument which has been used by the Government in Scotland, where we gave more powers after we had won a referendum on independence, and the result is that the nationalists have surged. My noble friend says that no one in Scotland is crying out for corporation tax powers, but the Scottish nationalists are crying out for devo-max. In the past six months, they have gone up to 55% in the opinion polls, and the Labour Party, which has advocated more powers on the same argument as my noble friend has put, is facing annihilation. Can we not learn the lesson that by giving more powers to constituent parts of the United Kingdom, we break the unitary state which is the United Kingdom and give succour to those who wish to smash it up? When my noble friend says that Scotland is not like Ireland because there is no other country it can be, yes there is. It can be Scotland as an independent country outside the United Kingdom. That is the threat.

[Lord Newby]

I am not sure that is a threat in respect of Northern Ireland. I disagree with the noble Lord about both the principle of devolution and its effect. The SNP is at 55% in the polls today but, if I were a betting man, I would say that it will not be at 55% in the polls in 10 years’ time when we have seen how it manages taking responsibility for Scotland’s own income. It seems to me that one of the great weaknesses about the current settlement in Scotland is that the Scots Nats or the Government in Scotland wait to get a cheque from England but, however big it is, it is not big enough, and they do not have the responsibility for raising the money themselves. Now, they will have significantly greater responsibly for raising the money, and that will mean that they have to take more responsibility. I think that is wholly beneficial. I just disagree with the noble Lord, I am afraid.

The noble Baroness, Lady Blood, asked about building societies and credit unions. The effect and the design of the scheme is that in order to attract genuine economic activity, some mobile trades and activities are excluded, including lending and investing. The rules in respect of lending and investing do not distinguish between types of entity, so banks and building societies are treated on the same basis for that purpose. In respect of credit unions, the Northern Ireland corporation tax regime applies only to trading activity in order to encourage genuine employment. The income from the loans that credit unions make to their members is not currently taxed as trading income, so credit unions do not pay corporation tax on that income. Given those special rules already in place, this income from loans will remain outside the Northern Ireland corporation tax rules. Perversely, to bring the profits within the trading income rules, and so within the Northern Ireland regime, would likely result in them paying more tax. I do not think that credit unions are being disadvantaged by this.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Newby]

Yes, it is the difference between the 20% and the 12.5%.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

Will the Minister just elaborate on that? Let us just say for the sake of argument that it is decided to drop the corporation tax rate to 12.5% on day one. The Government have made an estimate that that would cost £325 million. Would the block grant then have £325 million deducted on day one? Is it based on the estimate? Given that we know how volatile corporation tax is from year to year, how would that work? I do not want to be rude, but it does rather feel as though the Government are introducing a Bill without knowing how it will work in practice, or how much it will cost. It does matter, for reasons that the noble Baroness, Lady Blood, pointed out in her speech.

[Lord Newby]

First, Northern Ireland would not lose the £325 million on day one. As I said, there is a transitional period; it takes three years before the full effects work through, because of the time that it takes to get corporation tax returns sorted out. On the second point, on how it works out, the model that is being followed closely follows the model that has been agreed with the Scottish Executive in respect of income tax for Scotland. So a lot of work has been done on that, and the principles and the practice will follow from Scotland to Northern Ireland. I am happy to write to the noble Lord about it—it is extremely technical. But I can assure him that a lot of work has been done on the issue already.

I am well over time. I just say to the noble Lord, Lord Bew, that the double Irish arrangement is coming to an end, so he is right to the extent that the rate would go up there.

As I said at the start, this is a measure that is broadly supported in Northern Ireland by the political and business community. It has raised varying expectations. The view of the Government is that it has the potential to encourage genuine investment and help Northern Ireland to become competitive, boosting the entire UK economy and the standard of living of people across Northern Ireland. But it will be for those in Northern Ireland—business and politicians alike—to ensure that, if and when the Bill comes into effect, it has the desired effect.

Income Tax: Top Rate

Lord Forsyth of Drumlean Excerpts

Monday 16th March 2015 Lords Chamber

Tabled by

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government whether income tax revenue received from top rate taxpayers has increased or decreased since the rate was cut from 50 per cent to 45 per cent; and by how much.

[Lord Borwick (Con)]

My Lords, in my noble friend Lord Forsyth’s absence, and at his request, I beg leave to ask the Question standing in his name.

Barnett Formula

Lord Forsyth of Drumlean Excerpts

Tuesday 10th February 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, there are many different views about where equity lies in this respect. The effect of the transfer of fiscal responsibility means that, going forward, the extent to which Scotland has money to spend will depend increasingly on the success of the Scottish economy and therefore very much upon the effectiveness of the Scottish Administration.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

My Lords, will my noble friend reflect on the fact that if it is the Government’s policy that the Scottish Parliament should be more responsible for the money it spends and should raise that money, the corollary is that the grant should be done on a needs basis and not on the basis of a formula that dates back to the 1970s, which clearly disadvantages the north of England, Wales and the rest of the United Kingdom? Why have the Government set their face against the report of the Select Committee of this House on the Barnett formula which spelled this out very clearly?

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, apart from the fact that the parties have supported the Barnett formula, the effect of the changes being made is that the relevance of the Barnett formula going forward is being cut by two-thirds and therefore any disparity that it might bring about will be reduced by an equivalent proportion.

Medical Innovation Bill [HL]

Lord Forsyth of Drumlean Excerpts

Friday 12th December 2014 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Jolly]

My Lords, Amendment 5, moved by the noble Lord, Lord Hunt, and supported by the noble Baronesses, Lady Wheeler and Lady Masham, and the noble Lord, Lord Turnberg, seeks to require the registration of innovations that are carried out under the Bill as part of the steps that a doctor should follow when taking a responsible decision to innovate. The Government have listened carefully to the concerns expressed by noble Lords and several key stakeholders, including the Royal College of Physicians, with regard to the collection of data resulting from innovation. We agree that it is vital that doctors are able to share learning about innovation that results from the Bill. However, we do not think that a requirement to record the results of innovative treatments should be included on the face of the Bill. Requiring doctors to record the results of innovative treatments in order to demonstrate that they have not been negligent, as Amendment 5 would require, would impose requirements that go beyond the current Bolam test of negligence. We are reluctant to impose requirements additional to those in the existing law as this may risk deterring doctors from innovating.

A stand-alone clause that would require doctors to register the results of innovative treatment would widen the scope of the Bill to cover all innovation. This Private Member’s Bill is not the right vehicle to make provision that would relate to all innovation. Broadening its scope in this way risks the Bill becoming the receptacle for a host of measures on innovation that are unrelated to the subject of clinical negligence. What is more, such an amendment may lead to confusion as doctors associate the Bill with clinical negligence and may therefore wrongly assume that the recording of innovation is tied in with the test of clinical negligence under the Bill. This additional burden may dissuade a doctor from innovating. It would be unclear to those doctors who choose not to innovate under the Bill whether they would be required to register the details of their innovation on the registry or whether the provision applies only to those innovating under the Bill. If the provision applied only to those innovating under the Bill, this would create an anomalous position for those acting under the Bill. More importantly, the act of putting something into legislation does not guarantee that doctors will adhere to it. We need to focus on incentivising doctors to use the registry and make such a registry work for their needs. It would be unwise to put something into legislation that does not work for doctors and that they would therefore not be able to adhere to.

I am sorry, but I have lost my place.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

I am trying to be helpful to my noble friend while she finds her place. I have been listening to her words, but surely from the point of view of the intention of the Bill, which is to encourage innovation so that people can benefit from it, it is rather extraordinary to argue that there should not be some record of success or failure.

[Baroness Jolly]

My noble friend is right. The Government are suggesting that there should be a registry because it would make no sense not to record innovations. It could otherwise not be replicated. The Government’s preferred approach is to set up a registry but not to put that on the face of the Bill.

In Committee, my noble friend Lord Howe committed on behalf of the Government to explore constructively what might be useful in terms of record-keeping and reporting in relation to medical innovation. The Government have begun engaging with partners in the health system to discuss how to achieve this goal and will continue to do so as the Bill progresses. This mechanism should be developed with a sufficiently light touch so that clinicians see it as being facilitative of good practice rather than burdensomely bureaucratic. It is also important to consider the efficiency of the data-collection mechanism and how it can be developed in the most cost-effective way.

In response to my noble friend Lord Cormack, once we have a Bill, the Government will work closely with the professional bodies and all other organisations to help the health system and patients understand and prepare for the changes to the law made by the Bill, including producing any guidance that might be helpful.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Saatchi]

I am going to put my notes to one side, probably to the horror of parliamentary counsel. On this amendment I find myself in complete agreement with every word that has been said by every Peer who has spoken on the subject. The reason is that it has been my fundamental position on the Bill from the beginning that, without a register that records both positive and negative results of innovation, it is very hard to explain to a man from Mars what the point of the Bill is. The Bill is designed to move science forward. If it does not do that, I can only say that I do not know quite what it does. That is its purpose.

I do not speak as an expert on the subject, but at least I can read. The standard text on the subject of science and scientific discovery was written by Professor Popper some years ago—noble Lords will all be familiar with it. In it, he describes the logic of scientific discovery as “reputation by application”. If no record is kept of a case in which a hypothesis has been refuted, then science will not advance in the way that the logic of scientific discovery requires. Therefore, it is, in the words of my noble and learned friend Lord Mackay of Clashfern, absolutely essential that there is a register that records both the successful and the unsuccessful results of innovation. In that way, science will advance and the wonderful result will be, as is the purpose of the Bill, to speed up the discovery of cures for horrific diseases.

I also want to reflect on what my noble friend Lord Cormack said. It has been pointed out to me that the work on the Bill will really only start on the day it receives Royal Assent. My noble friend the Minister and the Department of Health will have to hold some kind of conference and undertake some kind of educational programme with the royal colleges in order to achieve the purpose of the Bill, which, as described by the Chief Medical Officer of the United Kingdom, is a culture change. It is designed to change the culture slightly towards innovation and to provide doctors with a relief from the fear of litigation that some doctors have. None of those things will be possible or logical without the register.

I remind your Lordships that Oxford University has offered to maintain the register. It regards it, as I do and as we all do, as an essential part of the Bill. Therefore, it is reassuring to hear from the Minister today that the Government are not saying that the register is something that they are going to review or consider, or that it is something that they regard as perhaps having a benefit. The Minister has said today, for all of us to hear, that the Government commit to the creation of a register that does exactly what Members of your Lordships’ House have said. I am satisfied by what my noble friend the Minister has said because she has said flat-out in Hansard that the Government intend this register to be created—by Oxford, NICE, the Government themselves or whomever—and that the Government intend to bring the relevant people together during the passage of the Bill through the House of Commons in order to resolve the question of how and by whom that register is going to be compiled. I have certainly heard the Minister say that the Government are committed to the register. That is very reassuring to me.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

Will my noble friend deal with the issue of compulsion? You can create a register, but it might be a voluntary register, not a compulsory one.

[Lord Saatchi]

That is an important point and many have made it. The discussion that has to be had is whether this can be achieved by regulation, as I think my noble friend the Minister believes, or by GMC guidance. It is possible that there are other ways to achieve what is in effect compulsion without putting it in the statute.

Autumn Statement

Lord Forsyth of Drumlean Excerpts

Wednesday 3rd December 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Deighton]

The fundamental approach of this Government to addressing poverty is to get people back into work and to ensure that real earnings recover and outstrip inflation, as we discussed earlier. In looking at the distributional analysis to see who is contributing towards the benefits, the top 20% pay more than the remaining 80%, so that is how the balance of our distribution looks.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

My Lords—

[Noble Lords]

Cross Bench.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Deighton]

I will be delighted to use my expertise as a poacher turned gamekeeper to help structure the profits diversion tax in a way that actually works. The noble Lord is quite right; it will only work ultimately if we capture this on a global basis. That, of course, is the work that is going on. The noble Lord will not be surprised to know that I will not be making any comments on monetary policy, which is a matter for the Bank.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

I congratulate my noble friend on his kindness in not repeating the Statement because it is perfectly obvious that the noble Lord would have had nothing to say by way of reply. Does my noble friend think that it is something of a nerve for the parties opposite, including those who have now flown to the Cross Benches, to complain about the Government’s progress in reducing the deficit when they have opposed every spending cut and every initiative by us to increase revenues? Are they not rather like a bunch of arsonists complaining that the fire crew is taking too long to put out the fire?

[Lord Deighton]

As always—and even more so today—it is very difficult to disagree with my noble friend.

Income Tax

Lord Forsyth of Drumlean Excerpts

Wednesday 19th November 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, wages have fallen, but they have started rising in real terms. The OBR and every other forecaster that has made projections of real wages for the next few years in the British economy are firmly forecasting consistent real-wage growth.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

My Lords, will my noble friend tell us what the effect of cutting the top rate of tax from 50p to 45p was? Did revenues go up or did they go down? What was the effect of putting up the capital gains tax rate? Did revenues go up or did they go down?

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, the impact of the reduction in the 50p tax rate was about £100 million, when all the secondary effects were taken into account. In respect of capital gains tax, I will need to write to the noble Lord.

Infrastructure Bill [HL]

Lord Forsyth of Drumlean Excerpts

Monday 10th November 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Hodgson of Astley Abbotts (Con)]

My Lords, the purpose of the amendment is simple, although the policy implications are perhaps more complex. It is to insert a new clause that will provide a statutory framework for the establishment of a UK sovereign wealth fund to receive a proportion of the Government’s revenues from fracking and shale gas.

I tabled a similar amendment in Committee on 14 October and I hope that my noble friend will forgive me if I say that I did not find her response entirely convincing. I have therefore retabled the amendment. It is primarily a Treasury matter, of course, and I am therefore pleased and grateful to see that my noble friend Lord Deighton has taken up the cudgels and will reply to this debate. I am grateful also to my noble friends Lord Jenkin and Lord Teverson, and the noble Lord, Lord Whitty, for adding their names in support.

The background to and reasons for my amendment are as follows. This country has been blessed with a wide range of natural assets. These can be divided into two parts, the finite and the infinite. The infinite includes the sun, rain and wind—all of which we can harness in various ways. However, there are finite resources. For example, our huge reserves of coal that powered the industrial revolution for a time made this country the workshop of the world. In the 1970s, we discovered another great gift from nature—North Sea oil. At the time of the original discovery, it was expected that by now it would all have run out. In the event, because of improved technology and higher oil prices, despite our having extracted some 40 billion barrels of oil, it is estimated that at least some 16 billion barrels remain recoverable. But—and this is the important but—one day the oil will inevitably run out and this gift from nature will have been entirely consumed.

Successive Governments and the country have benefited hugely from this oil. Estimates of the overall revenue run as high as £400 billion, but every penny of that revenue has been spent. A debate on whether it has been wisely or foolishly spent would occupy your Lordships’ House for many a long day. That is not the point this evening. The point this evening is that the revenue has all been spent and nothing has been put aside for the future.

On the other side of the North Sea, Norway, which has also benefited from North Sea oil, had an extremely fierce political debate about how to use its proceeds. In the end, it was decided that it should establish a sovereign wealth fund. Norway has a much smaller population than we do—about 10% of that of the United Kingdom—and its oil and gas reserves are commensurately larger. Therefore, I do not wish to push the metrics too far. The fact is that in the 20 short years since revenue started to flow to the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, it has grown to $800 billion—£500 billion. At this point, I should apologise to Members of your Lordships’ House because when trying to send a letter to you from Chicago I mixed up my “millions” and “billions”. The figure is, in fact, £500 billion, not £500 million, as in my original letter. That is not the end of it. It is confidently expected that the $800 billion will reach $1 trillion in the next few years. The fund generates between £20 billion and £25 billion every year. That is a lot of money. It is roughly two-thirds of our annual defence expenditure or what we expect to spend on our nuclear deterrent over its life. It is roughly 10 times what the Leader of the Opposition thought was necessary to save the National Health Service. He referred to £2.4 billion in his speech at his party conference.

In this country, we took a different approach, and the decision is irrevocable. Every penny that we receive in future will be spent until the oil finally runs out. But we now appear to have received another potential gift from nature: natural gas extracted as a result of the development of the new fracking process. I argue that we should learn from the decisions of the past, as well as from the example set by Norway, and provide for the establishment of a sovereign wealth fund to receive at least part of the proceeds from shale gas exploration and development. I do so on three principal grounds. First, the costs of infrastructure projects, which are so essential to this country’s long-term prosperity, are notoriously difficult to forecast. The returns from a sovereign wealth fund would help to plug some of these overs and unders.

Secondly, a sovereign wealth fund would provide some insurance against future uncertainties. Governments are constantly urging us as private citizens to save more to guard against the rising costs of our increasingly long lives. We are told that we must forgo current consumption individually for our long-term benefit. It would surely be no bad thing if the Government occasionally practised what they so assiduously preach.

Thirdly, and most importantly, it is about intergenerational fairness and equity. These gas reserves have built up over millions of years. Are they properly ours to plunder and spend in a couple of generations? Should we not ensure that some parts of the proceeds are left for those who come after us?

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

In his amendment, my noble friend says that no less than 50% of any revenue received should go into the fund. Can he indicate what he expects that revenue to be and why he chose 50%?

[Lord Hodgson of Astley Abbotts]

If my noble friend waits for one minute, I shall explain the detail of the amendment. That will take care of the 50% point. Since I think there is possibly an indication that other uses should be made for this revenue, I will come to that immediately after that point. If I have not answered those questions in a couple of minutes I invite him to intervene again.

I turn to the details of my amendment. As I have said, it is an enabling amendment. It does not require the Government to do anything now, but it does indicate a direction of travel. The enabling provision is subject to five provisos. The first, as my noble friend Lord Forsyth has just pointed out, is that the Government should get 50% of the revenue from shale gas. That is part of the fairness argument: 50% for us, knowing that at least some of it will be spent on projects that will benefit future generations, and 50% put aside for those generations directly.

Secondly, the fund should support long-term public policy objectives. That underpins the philosophy and approach behind it.

Thirdly, the fund may invest overseas, as well as in the United Kingdom. That is necessary to ensure that the fund obtains the best returns. In that context, it is worth noting that the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund now owns more than 1% of the entire world’s quoted equities.

Fourthly, no more than 4% of the fund may be paid out in any one year. The need for a limit is obvious. Without one the fund would almost certainly be drained very quickly indeed. My proposed maximum level of withdrawal, 4%, is calculated based on a 2% long-term rate of real return and a 2% allowance for inflation. That level should mean that a well managed fund should be able to operate long into the future.

Finally and most importantly, proposed subsection 2(e) provides that the operation and activities of the fund must be transparent and open to public scrutiny. If noble Lords read the literature, it is clear that transparency has been a vital part of creating trust and confidence among the Norwegian public in the operation of their fund.

So much for the reasons for the fund and the detail of my amendment. Before I conclude, let me briefly address the reasons given for not having a fund, which I think underlie the intervention from my noble friend Lord Forsyth. There are essentially three of them: first, this is not the right time to do it because we do not yet know how large and profitable the shale gas development will be. That is absolutely true. My answer is that the amendment is permissive—it requires only an indication of the direction of travel. I hope the House will not think me unduly cynical if I say that, in the absence of any specific prior commitment, I believe the chances of establishing a sovereign wealth fund once the revenues are beginning to flow are even closer to zero than the chances of the Government accepting my amendment tonight.

The second reason is that any revenue from shale gas should be used to reduce the deficit. Again, that is a perfectly understandable argument, but one that undermines the concept of intergenerational fairness. In any case, under my amendment, half the proceeds are available to reduce the deficit. However, to suggest that all should be used for that purpose is akin to me saying to my children, “I was going to leave you a decent sum of money, but I’m afraid I’ve been living beyond my means and I’ve run up debts. I don’t wish to take difficult decisions to reduce my standard of living, so I’m afraid that if you want your inheritance, you’ll have to take all my debts with it—or, of course, I could use your inheritance to pay off my debts”. We need to face the consequences of our own actions and not slide them on to a future generation.

The third and last reason revolves around the most feared word in Treasury-speak—hypothecation, the sin that dare not speak its name. If one consults the Oxford English Dictionary, hypothecate is defined as:

“Pledge … by law to a specific purpose”.

I argue that the establishment of a sovereign wealth fund which has no specific purpose would require an unusually broad interpretation of the concept of hypothecation. Of course, in reality, this is all a smokescreen. The real reason for Treasury opposition is that it always opposes policies that in any way diminish its direct day-to-day control over every aspect of our national life.

To conclude, this enabling amendment is designed to balance the long-term national interest against short-term political expediencies, to enable future generations to share in this potential windfall and to encourage Governments to follow the saving practices they so urgently suggest we individually adopt.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

My noble friend has not answered my question on what he anticipates the revenue to be.

[Lord Hodgson of Astley Abbotts]

I think I answered it by saying that the reason given for opposing a fund at this stage is that nobody knows quite how much money is going to flow. No one can know. I pointed out that if you do not get something in principle in place now, once the revenue starts to flow, the chances of having a sovereign wealth fund are very low. If we do not get a peg in the board now, when revenue starts to flow there will be a million reasons as to why it should not be put in place at that stage.

I was most encouraged by the remarks of the Chancellor of the Exchequer over the weekend about the advantages that a sovereign wealth fund would bring. I hope that my noble friend will put some flesh on these bones when he winds up. The very last word must rest with Jens Stoltenberg, the then Prime Minister of Norway. In September 2013, at the John F Kennedy School of Government, he said:

“The problem in Europe with the deficits and the debt crisis is that many European countries have spent money they don’t have. The problem in Norway is that we don’t spend money we do have”.

He went on to say that to achieve this happy state of affairs needs actions to be taken that require “political courage”. It is that political courage that I am looking for from the Minister tonight. I beg to move.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Teverson]

My Lords, I welcome this amendment and I was pleased to add my name to it both in Committee and now on Report. The important point to make is that my noble friend Lord Hodgson is absolutely right: if we do not put this on to the statute book as something that can happen, the temptation will pass and it will be as if it never happened. That is why I am keen that it should be done now.

I should say just as an observer, if you like, that it is very easy to expand government expenditure and very difficult to pull it back. It is easy to find uses for income if it is there, but perhaps those uses are not always the best for our long-term future. It is easy when there are financial and fiscal constraints of the kind the country is confronting at the moment, but that is not always the case. It is hoped that we will get over the current deficit at some point in the not too distant future. That is why it is important to prepare for a sovereign wealth fund so that we can build it up in an intergenerational way, as has been advocated already.

The other aspect is completely different and not at all the most important. In the last parliamentary Session this House set up a Select Committee to investigate the nature of soft power. I was not a member of the committee, but it seems to me that countries with sovereign wealth funds exercise considerably more soft power in global affairs. That is not surprising because money talks—not just within the family or in business, but across nations as well. Why does Norway enjoy its stature? It is in part because of its sovereign wealth fund. The same can be said for a number of Gulf states and for China. In terms of Britain’s status in the future, we would gain quite considerably if we were seen to be a country that is able to save, invest and exert influence financially beyond our borders in this way rather than one that just keeps its current account going through non-renewable resources that cannot be brought back. That is why I feel strongly that we should at least take the step of this enabling legislation and then let future Governments decide how it should be used.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

My Lords, I did serve on the soft power committee and I have to say that the countries with sovereign wealth funds are not exercising soft power; they are exercising hard power because they are lending us money to keep going. Every year we are spending roughly £100 billion more than we have income. The leader of the Opposition forgot about the deficit in his speech at his party’s conference. I have to say that I have very considerable respect for my noble friend, but he seems to have forgotten about it too. He did mention at the end of his speech that there is the issue of debt, which might be a reason why people would oppose this policy. It is certainly why I would oppose it.

The national debt will have doubled during this Parliament. The coalition Government are absolutely determined to reduce it, but it is still growing. We are not meeting our targets in terms of bringing the deficit under control. The idea that we should pre-empt resources that may or may not come from shale gas is like going along to the bank manager and saying, “I would like to borrow £1.4 trillion and, by the way, I would also like to open a savings account into which I shall put the proceeds from shale gas”. This is a noble thought. It would be great to have a sovereign wealth fund, but it would perhaps be a first step to live within our means and pay back the debt that we have accumulated.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

Given what my noble friend has said, what answer would my right honourable friend the Chancellor give if Alex Salmond suggested that we should set up a sovereign wealth fund now using the proceeds from North Sea oil so that Scotland would benefit from it? Where does this hypothecation end?

[Lord Deighton]

I think the difference between the two opportunities is that, in one case, we are right at the beginning and, in the other, we are right at the end. Now is the time to explore the opportunity with respect to shale gas.

My noble friend Lord Hodgson pointed out that a sovereign wealth fund was implemented successfully in Norway, but that fund was established in 1990, which was nearly 20 years after oil was first produced. The fund was set up when the levels of revenue were already well known—this was a point that my noble friend Lord Forsyth was also getting at. The UK shale gas industry is still in the exploration phase. We will not be able accurately to forecast the scale or timing of shale revenues until more work is done to determine the extent of gas that can be technically and commercially recovered. Therefore, coming up today with a clear plan for how this might fit into issues related to determining how we reduce the deficit and how we invest in the long term is extremely difficult without understanding what the revenues will be—I fully take on the point made there by my noble friend Lord Forsyth.

It should therefore be for future Governments to think about how such a fund could be designed, but we commit to the principle. The Chancellor will demonstrate his commitment to bring forward a proposal in the next Parliament in his Autumn Statement. With respect to the request made by my noble friend Lord Hodgson for a peg in the board now, and for those others who support this idea, I think that the right timing is when we have better information and are able to look at this matter properly. On that basis, I trust that the noble Lords, Lord Hodgson, Lord Whitty, Lord Teverson and Lord Jenkin, will agree not to press their amendment.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

Perhaps I might follow up on my noble friend’s point about the Scottish position. He said that we were right at the end and not at the beginning. What would his response be to a proposition that said, “Well, for new fields that are discovered, we should have a sovereign wealth fund”? Let us bear in mind that there are considerable potential resources to the west of the Shetland Islands and so on. Surely this is a very dangerous argument given the delicate situation that we are in, where we appear to be saying that, for some parts of the country and for some energy resources, a different view will be taken of the long-term future. Is this not a very dangerous proposition which could unravel rather badly?

[Lord Deighton]

That is one of the reasons for our anticipating that this subject would be explored in the next Parliament rather than this one.

Barnett Formula

Lord Forsyth of Drumlean Excerpts

Monday 3rd November 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, I absolutely agree with the noble Lord that Lord Barnett was a formidable parliamentarian across a range of subjects.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

My Lords, I associate myself with the remarks about Lord Barnett, who was a good friend and a great person in this House.

Can my noble friend explain to me how the vow made by all three party leaders in the concluding days of the Scottish referendum, which states that they are committed to,

“sharing our resources equitably across all four nations”,

is consistent with keeping the Barnett formula?

Bank of England

Lord Forsyth of Drumlean Excerpts

Thursday 30th October 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

A notable feature of the referendum campaign was that Alex Salmond was desperately keen to keep the comfort blanket of the Bank of England. As far as I am aware, he never suggested that its name should change.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

My Lords, given that the Bank of England has responsibility for ensuring that other banks and financial institutions have proper systems and back-up systems in place, what action has been taken following the failure of the CHAPS system—for which the Bank of England is responsible—that resulted in many people being unable to buy their houses on the day concerned; quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

[Lord Newby]

Quite, my Lords. The Financial Services Act gave the Bank of England new powers in this area. It is conducting an investigation to see what happened in that unfortunate case and what lessons can be learned for the future.