Public and Private Sector Productivity Trends

Lord Londesborough Excerpts

Thursday 30th October 2025 Lords Chamber

Asked by

[Lord Londesborough]

To ask His Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the United Kingdom’s productivity trends across both public and private sectors.

[The Financial Secretary to the Treasury (Lord Livermore) (Lab)]

My Lords, in the decade from 2010, the UK economy saw the lowest productivity growth since the Napoleonic Wars, which led to the lowest growth in living standards ever recorded. This Government also inherited a situation where public sector productivity was 7.2% below pre-pandemic levels. Reversing that poor productivity performance is the number one mission of this Government. As part of our growth strategy, we have set out measures to increase productivity, including reforms to planning and skills, record levels of investment in R&D, new investment in transport connectivity, a modern industrial strategy and a 10-year infrastructure strategy.

[Lord Londesborough (CB)]

My Lords, I thank the Minister for his reply. Low productivity has indeed been a running sore for almost 20 years now. Frankly, there are no real signs of progress, which is why the OBR is poised to downgrade its trend forecast and leave the Chancellor with an even deeper black hole. We need a major reset, so is it not time to set up an office for productivity alongside the Office for Budget Responsibility if we want to achieve per capita growth and fiscal discipline? This would be an office with experts with first-hand industry experience delivering on productivity, including how to lead, manage, train, set targets, and reward and incentivise our workers in public and private sectors.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I am grateful to the noble Lord for his question and suggestion. On the progress that has been made, he will know that the drivers of productivity are fundamental and deep-seated challenges that exist in our economy, that they are long-standing, and that obviously we cannot come in, click our fingers and improve that productivity performance—it will take time. For example, investment is one of the most important drivers of productivity. That requires changes to our planning system and the planning Bill is still going through this House, so of course it is going to take time. As I say, the productivity performance that we inherited from the previous Government has been too weak. Austerity, Brexit and the Liz Truss mini-Budget have left deep scars on the British economy that are still being felt today, but those past mistakes do not need to determine our future. That is why, as part of our growth strategy, we have set out measures to increase productivity in the British economy.

GDP Per Capita

Lord Londesborough Excerpts

Monday 20th October 2025 Lords Chamber

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I hear what the noble Baroness says. The OBR is currently considering the economic and fiscal impacts of the immigration White Paper published in May and will report back in its forecast in the autumn. Of course, she is right that we are in a global race for talent, with many countries seeking to improve the attractiveness of their immigration systems for highly talented individuals. The immigration White Paper announced that the Government will review the visa offer for highly talented individuals by expanding the high potential individual visa and reforming the global talent and innovator founder visas. We have also agreed that we will work towards an ambitious youth mobility scheme with the EU, creating maximum economic and cultural opportunities between the UK and the EU. Any scheme would give young Brits the opportunity to travel, to experience other cultures and to work and study abroad.

[Lord Londesborough (CB)]

My Lords, can the Minister confirm that the Government’s pledge still holds—specifically, that the UK will deliver the G7’s fastest growth in GDP per capita for two straight years by the end of this Parliament—and explain why investors, both debt and equity, should buy into this view?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

Yes, I can absolutely confirm that that remains our mission. Our growth mission is to have the fastest-growing economy in the G7. We are currently the fastest-growing economy in the G7, and the IMF recently revised up the growth forecast for this year, the second time it has done so. I think both the IMF and the OECD currently forecast that the UK will be the second fastest-growing G7 economy this year. Our growth mission also includes living standards; since the election, living standards are up 2.1% compared with the 1.8% fall over the last Parliament—the only Parliament on record in which living standards were worse at the end of it than at the start. We also have a commitment on GDP per capita, as the noble Lord rightly says; the OBR currently forecasts GDP per capita to rise by 5.6% over this Parliament.

Unpaid Tax

Lord Londesborough Excerpts

Monday 7th July 2025 Lords Chamber

[Lord Londesborough (CB)]

My Lords, back in February the Public Accounts Committee accused HMRC of not being

“sufficiently curious about the true scale of tax evasion”

in this country, suggesting that the tax authority’s estimate of £5.5 billion a year may be a significant underestimate. Does the Minister share the committee’s concern?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

After the measures we took in the Budget and the Spring Statement, no one could possibly say that we are not sufficiently resourcing the fight against the tax gap. As I said in my original Answer to my noble friend, the National Audit Office recognises in its report that this Government are scaling up compliance activity to tackle serious offshore non-compliance and have committed further funding to do so. It also recognises many of the measures we are taking, including, as I said earlier, significant additional investment in compliance officers by the end of the Parliament. The noble Lord will recognise that this is the most ambitious package to close the tax gap ever; we have committed an additional £660 million each year for measures to do so and by the end of the Parliament we will raise an additional £7.5 billion a year.

Economic Growth

Lord Londesborough Excerpts

Wednesday 11th June 2025 Lords Chamber

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I very much agree with my noble friend on every word that he said. The spending review that we saw this afternoon from the Chancellor set out capital spending that increases growth by 1.4% in the long term. Every single penny of that capital spending has been opposed by the party opposite. The spending review set out a housing settlement—the biggest investment in a generation. It set out record levels of R&D spending, the biggest ever transport settlement, and a record commitment to skills investment. Every single penny of that spending was opposed by the party opposite. It can talk down Britain, but it opposes every single measure this Government are taking to increase growth in the economy.

[Lord Londesborough (CB)]

My Lords, perhaps I might offer some Cross-Bench objectivity. Here it comes. The 0.7% growth rate in Q1 was encouraging, but the growth rate over the last three quarters, which covers this Government’s tenure, is just 0.8%. That is less than in both the eurozone and the US. Does the Minister agree that it is growth per capita that matters—not the forecast but the track record here and now? And how concerned is he that our economic growth rate continues to lag our population growth?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I am grateful to the noble Lord for his question. He did indeed show his characteristic objectivity. I will simply say that, where GDP per capita fell in the last Parliament, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by 5.6% over the course of this Parliament.

Mansion House Accord

Lord Londesborough Excerpts

Wednesday 14th May 2025 Lords Chamber

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I am grateful to the noble Baroness for her question. I know that she has a great deal of expertise in this matter, and I enjoyed the meeting that she and I had with my honourable friend the Pensions Minister on this exact topic—he mentioned her in his remarks in answer to this UQ yesterday in the other place, so she has clearly had a big impact on his thinking. I am pleased, and I welcome the fact, that she welcomes these reforms. She has often called for greater investment by pension funds in productive assets, which I think is exactly what is being delivered. She has called for greater investment by pension funds in UK assets, which is again what is being delivered. Of course, there is always more that can be done; I hear what she says about the campaign that she has led for many months now, and I am sure that my honourable friend will look further at that issue.

[Lord Londesborough (CB)]

My Lords, a number of pension providers have warned that progress will be dependent on

“a steady supply of high-quality UK investment opportunities”.

That is a big pipeline challenge, because our record of financial returns on infrastructure projects is, as we know, suboptimal. Investing in fast-growing start-ups and scale-ups, whether here in the UK or overseas, carries far greater risk. In many sectors such as tech, the failure rate of such start-ups is over 90%. Can the Minister therefore explain how these sorts of investment opportunities sit with the pension funds’ fiduciary and consumer duties to act in their clients’ interests in terms of maximising returns for pensioners without taking excessive risk?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

The noble Lord is absolutely right about the importance of the pipeline that he speaks about. The Government are playing our part in that, with £100 billion of additional public investment over the course of this Parliament. Our job as the Government is also to support the pipeline of investable projects, which is why we are getting the country building through our planning reforms; why we have ended the ban on the development of onshore wind; why we have set up the National Wealth Fund; and crucially, why we will be publishing, at the time of the spending review, the 10-year infrastructure strategy and modern industrial strategy.

The noble Lord is also right when he talks about the long-standing problem in the UK economy of the ability for growing firms to get hold of scale-up finance, which this accord will help to address. The accord will provide investment for infrastructure but also provide growth capital to a much wider range of firms. These are often smaller-ticket items, and pension funds will need them to be aggregated to a higher level, which is exactly the work of the British Business Bank.

UK-US Trade

Lord Londesborough Excerpts

Monday 12th May 2025 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Gustafsson (Lab)]

I thank the noble Baroness for her question. It is an important point that we have been able to open up such trading opportunities while protecting our incredibly powerful and well-respected food standards. I am not necessarily familiar with the specifics of how we can detect whether those standards have been complied with, and I will endeavour to write to her to follow up on that matter.

[Lord Londesborough (CB)]

My Lords, I give some credit to the Government for signing a damage-limitation deal with the US, for that is what it is, but this five-page agreement does not actually constitute a legally binding document. Can the Minister confirm that, currently, it can be terminated at will by either side? If so, what longer-term assurances can the Minister offer to UK exporters, given the erratic nature of US trade policy?

[Baroness Gustafsson (Lab)]

We are operating in incredibly fast-moving times. This agreement lays down those anchor points and principles to allow our great industries to be able to continue to trade, but there is more work to be done in fleshing out the specifics and making sure that this is enacted and is something that people can use day to day in their trade. Our brilliant team of officials are working very hard on ensuring that this gets done within the coming weeks.

National Debt: It’s Time for Tough Decisions (Economic Affairs Committee Report)

Lord Londesborough Excerpts

Friday 25th April 2025 Lords Chamber

[Lord Londesborough (CB)]

My Lords, it is a pleasure, if somewhat daunting, to follow the former Permanent Secretary of the Treasury and the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, and to be shortly followed by the former Governor of the Bank of England. However, as a member of the Economic Affairs Committee, I first acknowledge and salute the noble Lord, Lord Bridges, for his astute and incisive chairmanship of the committee and his spot-on introductory comments.

It is indeed time for tough decisions, but I have to admit to growing increasingly cynical about our appetite to face up to them, let alone to take them. We have ducked those decisions for the majority of the last 20 years, and I fear we will go on doing so for the next 20. This highly topical report was published last September, just weeks before Rachel Reeves’s first Budget, which saw another rewriting of the fiscal rules as we ushered in another £30 billion of borrowing. Yes, taxes were raised by £40 billion, but at the cost of future growth.

Our public sector net debt has grown by almost 10 times over the last 25 years, from £300 billion in 2001 to approaching £3 trillion next year. We have had the financial crisis, the pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and this ensuing energy crisis. Each event led to exceptional, “one-off” increases in government spending financed entirely by borrowing. But I argue that those shocks explain less than half of this £3 trillion debt pile and obscure the real malaise: low growth and poor productivity.

Not only is there no peace dividend or surplus in stable years, but we routinely borrow at least £100 billion a year to fund our budget deficits. In fact, it was £130 billion last year and, as we have learned this week, in the year to March it has grown to £152 billion—rather worryingly, £15 billion more than the OBR predicted; more on that in a moment.

The resulting interest bill of more than £100 billion a year cannot be paid by tax revenues. We meet those interest payments only through additional borrowing. It is a vicious cycle and it is, of course, unsustainable. I am afraid that business is usual is that R, representing interest rate on debt, exceeds G, our GDP growth rate, even in non-crisis years. So we are caught in a cycle of low growth and productivity accompanied by high borrowing and, crucially, that borrowing has not led to productivity gains.

This raises the uncomfortable question: how much of this £3 trillion debt has been channelled into truly productive areas that will accelerate growth, as opposed to simply financing budget deficits? I suggest to the Minister that we produce an asset register on our borrowing worthy of its name, with a proper impact assessment focusing on ROI—return on investment—to answer this very question.

My final point is on the rolling fiscal rule that foresees a budget surplus in five years’ time. It is a recipe for deferring tough decisions, as we have already heard, and it is aided and abetted by the OBR’s record of optimistic forecasting. Since its inception, the OBR has predicted budget surpluses five years out in 20 of its 28 forecasts when, in fact, the UK achieved such a surplus just once in the last 20 years. Let us have some economic realism.

National Insurance Contributions (Secondary Class 1 Contributions) Bill

Lord Londesborough Excerpts

Consideration of Commons amendments and / or reasons
Monday 31st March 2025 Lords Chamber

[Lord Londesborough (CB)]

My Lords, I too thank the Minister for his comments. It is with regret that I will neither insist on my Amendment 8B nor plan to add any further amendments. The other place has played its financial privilege card for the second time, even though this amendment had been radically and pragmatically modified to simply provide the Treasury with the option of a statutory instrument to reverse the big drop in the NICs thresholds for small businesses. It will discover this in the economic damage that this Bill will potentially do to employment and growth.

In the meantime, I simply thank noble Lords—almost 300 of them—for voting for my amendments. I especially thank the noble Baronesses, Lady Kramer and Lady Neville-Rolfe, for their unflagging and invaluable support. I thank the Minister for his patience and for at least listening; I appreciate that he had little or perhaps no room for manoeuvre. I support the Government wholeheartedly on their overriding mission of economic growth, but I remain baffled, bemused and bewildered by their policies.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

My Lords, I am grateful to all noble Lords who have spoken today and all noble Lords who have taken part in all stages of this Bill for their careful scrutiny; I thank them for their thoughtful contributions. I thank the noble Baronesses, Lady Neville-Rolfe and Lady Kramer, specifically for indicating that they will not be insisting on their amendments today.

As I have set out, the other place has disagreed with Lords Amendments 1B, 5B and 8B, as they interfere with public revenue. They did not offer any further reason, trusting that this reason is deemed sufficient. The other place also disagreed with Amendment 21B for the reasons I have set out. On this basis, I hope noble Lords are content not to insist on these amendments.

Spring Statement

Lord Londesborough Excerpts

Thursday 27th March 2025 Lords Chamber

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I am afraid that I do not know what that target is. If there is one, I will find out for the noble Lord and write to him.

[Lord Londesborough (CB)]

I will follow up on a key point raised by the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe. While the OBR forecast for growth has halved to just 1%, which I think many would argue still looks optimistic, it is forecasting that we will see a net gain of 400,000 people joining the workforce and becoming economically active this year, even though unemployment is forecast to rise. Can the Minister shed any light on this forecast? Specifically, how many jobs will be created in the public sector and how many in the private sector?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I do not know whether the OBR has set that out in it forecast, but I will be happy to go away and look at that for the noble Lord, if that is helpful. Clearly, a central part of our growth strategy is investment, which creates jobs right across the country. We have already seen many jobs being created in this economy, since we came to office, as a result of various investments right across the country. As I have discussed already, the additional investment in defence spending will see very highly skilled jobs created across the country. However, I will happily find out the specific breakdown for the noble Lord.

National Insurance Contributions (Secondary Class 1 Contributions) Bill

Lord Londesborough Excerpts

Consideration of Commons amendments and / or reasons
Monday 24th March 2025 Lords Chamber

[Lord Scriven (LD)]

My Lords, on Report, this House passed Lords Amendment 1 and a number of consequential amendments to exempt NHS services and social care from the Government’s hike in employer national insurance contributions. I am grateful that the House agreed with these Benches that such a rise will have potentially devastating consequences for those that form the backbone of community healthcare and the people they serve. Despite the immense financial pressure that these vital services already face, and despite the clearly expressed views by this House, the Government have chosen to overturn our amendments in the Commons. We accept the Commons reasons that these amendments engage Commons financial privilege, and we will not seek to break with convention today by asking the House to look at alternative amendments that would produce the same response.

This brings me to Motion A1 in my name, which seeks to introduce Amendment 1B in lieu, and Motion E1, which seeks to introduce Amendment 5B in lieu. They look complicated, but they really are very simple. These amendments would introduce a regulation-making power to allow the Government, at a later stage, to exempt social care, pharmacists and other NHS services included in my original amendment. Noble Lords will know that I do not propose this lightly. We on these Benches are naturally suspicious of giving any Government such powers without full scrutiny provided in primary legislation, but we are so profoundly worried about the impact of the Bill on the NHS and social care.

My amendment seeks to address the deeply concerning implications of the national insurance contribution increases for our vital health and social care providers, NHS dentists, community pharmacists, hospices, GPs and social care organisations. The Government’s current approach to reimbursement, embedded in next year’s financial contract negotiations, will not solve the financial cliff edge and cash-flow issues many providers face. It is a damaging policy that will only exacerbate the existing financial crisis these sectors already face.

I will not dwell at length on the consequences of the national insurance increases as we have already explored them thoroughly. However, it is essential to reiterate the stark realities. The national insurance contribution increase imposes an immediate and substantial financial burden that will force some NHS dentists, community pharmacists, hospices, GPs and social care providers to make difficult choices, potentially reducing services and care packages, cutting staff, reducing access and indirectly impacting the most vulnerable in society. This will also add pressure on the NHS, as hospital beds will be blocked by keeping medically fit individuals in hospital because they cannot access appropriate social care packages.

The Government’s proposed solution—reimbursing these costs through next year’s contract negotiation—is fundamentally flawed. It amounts to a system of taking money away from those struggling organisations, with no guarantee of its full return. This will create significant cash-flow problems, particularly for those already operating on tight budgets. It could be the very issue that pushes some community pharmacists, social care providers and dentists over the edge, rendering them unable to continue to provide essential NHS services and care.

Furthermore, the NHS contracting cycle is notoriously complex. I know this as a former NHS manager. The reality is very different from being in a Whitehall office. It is complex and opaque. Contract negotiations bundle in various factors, including inflation and other cost pressures. There is no guarantee that the full amount of the national insurance increase will be reimbursed. Too often, initial drafts appear to include all necessary provisions, only for providers to discover mid-year that the additional activity requirements and other tricks that funders put in have effectively negated the promised increase.

Also, delays in finalising contracts are commonplace, leaving many sectors with months of accumulated pressures and unresolved cash-flow and debt issues. For example, community pharmacists are currently operating under a contract that ended in March last year. With only two weeks remaining in this financial year, a new agreement is still outstanding and they have not been reimbursed for the cost pressures of this financial year.

The uncertainty and delay create immense financial instability. The current system lacks the flexibility needed to address the immediate crisis that the national insurance increase will impose on some NHS and social care providers. A more agile and realistic approach is urgently required. Therefore, my amendment proposes that the Government can be granted the power to utilise a statutory instrument if necessary. This would allow for targeted and timely support to ensure that these vital services are not destabilised and pushed to the brink. The Government must abandon their rigid adherence to self-imposed rules and listen to the concerns raised about the impact of the national insurance increase. They must not continue marching forward blindly with this act of folly.

My amendment makes this offer to the Minister: give yourself some flexibility. Allow yourself to act quickly to reverse this damaging national insurance contribution rise for our health and social care systems. It would give the Government a way to get off the hook once they see how this increase will jeopardise community health, social care and other essential services. If the Minister will not listen, he will leave me no option but to test the opinion of the House. This is a generous offer. I urge him to accept my amendments. I beg to move.

[Lord Londesborough (CB)]

My Lords, it is with some regret that I do not insist on my Amendment 8 and its consequential amendments. I am disappointed that financial privilege has been invoked to prevent a full and proper debate in the other place on the potential damaging impact that reducing the class 2 secondary threshold by a brutal 45% will have on jobs and growth for small businesses and organisations employing fewer than 25 staff. I fear the Government will look back on 6 April, the day the new NICs regime kicks in, as a day of economic self-harm—a second April Fools’ Day, if you like.

I do propose to move Amendment 8B in lieu. In the spirit of pragmatism, my amendment, like that from the noble Lord, Lord Scriven, would simply bestow on the Treasury the power—through statutory instrument—to specify exemptions on the lowering of secondary class 1 thresholds for businesses, charities and, indeed, all organisations employing fewer than 25 people. We are talking about 10 million jobs across the UK that are not protected by Clause 3’s increase in the employment allowance, which offsets the NICs increases but, typically, only for those employing three or fewer staff. Given the potential damage to employment, wages and growth, why would the Government not want this weapon in their armoury in what will be a very difficult year ahead for small employers, who also face close to 7% increases in the national minimum wage and added compliance costs with the new Employment Rights Bill?

I support Amendments 1B and 5B in the name of the noble Lord, Lord Scriven, which strike me as an entirely sensible and pragmatic exemption tool to give to the Treasury given the very challenging circumstances facing care homes, hospices, pharmacies and other primary care providers.

Finally, I also support Amendment 21B in the name of the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, which seeks a review of the impact of NICs increases by sector. The impact note that came with the Bill was extraordinarily light on detail, especially when you consider that the Bill commits employers across these sectors to more than £5 billion per annum in additional NICs and impacts more than 10 million jobs.

I asked the Minister in Committee how many jobs in each sector would be impacted by the increase in NICs—a fairly basic question, one could argue, and yet no answer has been forthcoming. We heard on Report that such assessments would be

“econometrically impossible”.—[Official Report, 25/2/25; col. 1672.]

I respectfully disagree. We are asking for sectoral impact assessments that cover such key issues as the number of jobs impacted and the impact on vacancies, job creation, redundancies, labour activity and output, and wages. It was an entirely reasonable request and one the Treasury should readily embrace.

[Baroness Neville-Rolfe (Con)]

My Lords, the amendments in this group, including my Amendment 21B, address the very real negative impact of this jobs tax that the Government refuse to acknowledge. The Bill is the most important economic measure they have put forward so far and it makes significant changes to millions of businesses and social enterprises on a very short timescale. These businesses have raised concerns that are reflected in a flat-lining of growth, as worried owners seek to anticipate such a brutal change. Noble Lords from across the House have raised the consequences a number of times, yet the Government remain unreceptive.

At every stage of this Bill’s progression, we have raised the concerns of the healthcare sector about the effects on care homes, pharmacies, dentists, GP surgeries and hospices. It will have a real impact on people’s lives. I am particularly concerned about the hospice sector. The recent extra funding provided is capital funding and will not support day-to-day functions. Hospice UK has reported that the burden of the increase in employer NICs will be £44.3 million a year, which will not be covered by the £26 million of revenue funding for children and young people’s hospices, previously mentioned by the Minister. Last year, children’s hospices were provided with £25 million through the children and young people’s hospice grant. Can the Minister tell us how much of his £26 million is additional funding and how much is in fact recurring?

--- Later in debate ---

Moved by

[Lord Londesborough]

At end insert “, and do propose Amendment 8B in lieu—

8B: Clause 2, page 1, line 15, at end insert—
“(3A) The Treasury may by regulations made by statutory instrument specify that businesses or organisations with fewer than 25 full-time employees are exempted from the changes to secondary Class 1 thresholds made by this section.
(3B) A statutory instrument containing regulations under this section may not be made unless a draft of the instrument has been laid before and approved by a resolution of each House of Parliament.””

[Lord Londesborough (CB)]

My Lords, I beg to move Motion H1 and wish to test the opinion of the House.