Declining Birth Rates

Lord Wilson of Sedgefield Excerpts

Thursday 4th June 2026 Lords Chamber

[Lord in Waiting/Government Whip (Lord Wilson of Sedgefield) (Lab)]

I thank my noble friend Lady Nargund for introducing this debate, which is very important to the long-term future of the country. The contributions we have heard show that it is a very complicated issue which is determined not just by one factor. A lot of factors are involved, and as the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, has just said, this is happening globally as well.

On the global aspect, birth rates are declining in Japan, Korea, across Europe and in every other advanced country. A declining birth rate in an ageing population represents one of the most significant challenges we face. The trends will shape the future size and composition of the workforce, increase pressure on public services, and have important implications for economic growth and the sustainability of public finances, not just in this country but in all the countries affected. As I have said, and as my noble friend Lord Davies made clear, the issues we face are very complicated, ranging from the impact of low birth rates on the workforce to the cost of pensions for the elderly. Even social media has an important impact on trends and demography.

These pressures reinforce the importance of maintaining a strong and productive economy. Economic growth and rising productivity will be essential in ensuring that the United Kingdom can continue to fund high-quality public services while supporting long-term fiscal sustainability.

Several noble Lords rightly highlighted the implication for the labour market. I just point out one statistic, which I find interesting: there were only two peacetime years in the past 150 years when average annual employment was higher than in 2025. The UK employment rate is in the top half of OECD economies and is above the G7 average.

We are providing support for those who wish to remain in or return to work, including parents, older workers and those currently economically inactive. The Government also recognise the importance of life-long learning, workforce flexibility and ensuring that people contribute to society throughout their lives.

Noble Lords spoke about the wider pressures facing younger generations. Decisions about having children are deeply personal. However, the Government recognise that factors such as housing affordability, childcare costs, job security and broader economic confidence can all shape those decisions. That is why supporting families and improving economic opportunity remains important, not only for individuals and households but for the long-term resilience of the economy.

The debate underlined that there is no single policy solution to demographic change. I will spend the rest of my time answering the questions raised by noble Lords in this short debate. I will try to answer them all, but we will write to the noble Lords in question on the ones I do not get round to.

The noble Baroness, Lady Nargund, and the right reverend Prelate said that equal and fair access to fertility treatment should be recognised as an economic priority. Fair access is a priority for the Government, and we recognise that access to NHS-funded fertility services currently varies across England. Commissioning decisions are made by integrated care boards based on local clinical need and are informed by national guidance. The Government are committed to improving fair and equitable access to fertility services, recognising the significant emotional and health impacts of infertility.

On social care, which was mentioned by the noble Baronesses, Lady Nargund, Lady Hamwee and Lady Thornton, and others, following the 2025 spending review there will be an addition £4.6 billion of funding available for adult social care in 2028-29 compared to 2025-26. This will enable an increase in the NHS’s minimum contribution to adult social care via the better care fund, in line with the DHSC’s spending review settlement, and some £500 million to begin implementing the fair pay agreement in 2028-29.

The noble Lord, Lord Hobby, and the noble Baronesses, Lady Nargund and Lady Neville-Rolfe, asked how importantly the Government regard this and whether there will be a cross-government, cross-departmental approach. The Government are committed to ensuring that the right structures are in place for co-ordinating their response to the challenges posed by an ageing society. Boosting economic growth is central to this response, and the Prime Minister recently announced a number of changes to the Cabinet committee structure, including establishing a Growth and Living Standards Committee, which provides terms of reference to consider many of the issues raised in the debate.

The noble Lord, Lord Hobby, raised the issue of rising unemployment. The Government inherited a level of young people not in education, employment or training that was far too high—12.6% in the second quarter of 2024. In March, the Government announced £1 billion more to unlock 200,000 new jobs and apprenticeships for the next generation, as part of a new deal for young people.

The noble Lord, Lord Hobby, also mentioned the Milburn review, the final report of which will be published this autumn. We take very seriously the issues raised in that review, and I know we will concentrate on that once the final report has been issued, some time in September or October.

The noble Lord, Lord Hobby, again, mentioned the Milburn review, which we all agree is very important going forward. The noble Baroness, Lady Finlay, mentioned commitments by the Government to kinship care. I will pass on her comments to the DWP and the relevant departments, but I can tell her that the Government are committed to tackling child poverty and improving outcomes for low-income families. Scrapping the two-child limit is just one way in which the Government are tackling the root causes of child poverty, and the child poverty strategy was published in December last year.

The noble Baroness, Lady Thornton, raised issues around social care. The autumn 2025 Budget confirmed that millions in England will see the cost of their prescriptions frozen to 2026-27. The Budget also confirmed that the NHS neighbourhood rebuild programme will deliver 250 new neighbourhood health centres. The Government’s 10-year health plan is committed to shift care from hospitals to community by establishing a neighbourhood health service that will bring care closer to home. Of course, the Casey review into all of this is very important.

The noble Baroness, Lady Nargund, raised housing and affordability. Noble Lords highlighted the relationship between housing and declining birth rates; the Government recognise that economic security includes access to stable and affordable housing, which can influence long-term family-planning decisions. The amount of money announced in the Budget for social housing is significant. I have got a minute to go.

[A noble Lord]

You do not have to use it.

[Lord Wilson of Sedgefield (Lab)]

I will do my best. The right reverend Prelate commented that family hubs will draw on what we know works from Sure Start, and the Best Start in Life programme will provide essential support for parents and families. The Government are committed to providing funds for all local authorities to deliver Best Start family hubs to a total amount of £500 million.

In response to the comments of my noble friend Lady O’Grady, it is difficult to make meaningful comparisons between different countries where state pension schemes are concerned. The UK has one of the most generous approaches globally to uplifting pensions, because no other country has the triple lock. The noble Baroness, Lady Hamwee, spoke about the UK’s immigration system; it is geared towards supporting businesses and accessing high-skilled overseas workers who boost the supply of skills and talent in the UK.

One of the big issues that the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, mentioned was the pension situation. The Government are legally required to review the state pension age every six years to ensure that it is fair and sustainable. We announced the launch of the third review of the state pension age in July 2025, alongside the Pensions Commission, so I think it is fair to say that we are doing a lot in this regard. There is obviously more to do. It is a very complicated issue but I hope that, in future, we will be able to have another debate on this in this Chamber. It is something that is very important and complicated, and there are no easy answers.