Budget Resolutions and Economic Situation

Alex Ballinger Excerpts

Wednesday 28th October 2026 Commons Chamber

[Sir Mel Stride]

My right hon. Friend is absolutely right.

That brings me to another point, which is that the Chancellor has taken a conscious decision to reduce the headroom, in the primary target, from around £24 billion to £15 billion. That is a mistake. If he had taken the radical measures necessary to get on top of public spending, particularly the welfare bill, he could have increased the headroom. He talks about the risks ahead—that is the very reason why we have the buffer of that headroom. If we have low headroom, we end up paying a premium on the debt servicing costs to which my right hon. Friend just referred.

The average headroom that Chancellors have come forward with since the instigation of the OBR runs at about 1.4% of GDP. In today’s terms, that would be about £40 billion of headroom. We are now down to £15 billion. Members across the House should therefore not be surprised if the Chancellor comes back at a future date and tells us, just as was the case with his predecessor, that the headroom has entirely evaporated, once again, because of reasons beyond his control. This is a mañana Budget. This is a Budget kicks the can down the road.

When the Chancellor resigned as Secretary of State for Defence, he made it very clear that his resignation from Government was nothing to do with the defenestration of the previous Prime Minister, and was instead a matter of principle: he did not believe that our country was going to be adequately protected as a result of not coming up with the money to fund the 3% of GDP on defence by 2030. He now has his hands on the levers, and he has failed to do even that on this occasion.

[Alex Ballinger (Halesowen) (Lab)]

The right hon. Gentleman will remember that, in his statement, the Chancellor he did commit to reaching 3% of GDP by 2030. Can the right hon. Gentleman say when the Conservatives reached 2.7% of GDP on defence?

[Sir Mel Stride]

We will have to look very closely at the wording that the Chancellor used, because my recollection is that he said that the Government would be committed to the NATO target of 3.5% by 2035, with a target to reach 3% by the end of 2030. The word “target” is not the same as the word “commitment” when it comes to reaching that particular figure. I recommend that the hon. Gentleman looks closely at that.

When it comes to this Chancellor and his principles, I am reminded of the late Groucho Marx, who said,

“Those are my principles, and if you don’t like them…well, I have others.”

It seems to me that that is where we are on this particular matter.

The Leader of the Opposition was perfectly correct in identifying the unrealistic expectations and assumptions contained within the numbers the OBR has had to work with. While the OBR sets out its assessment of what various interventions will mean for growth, inflation and so on, it has to take at face value the spending envelope that the Government come forward with, which was inherited from the Chancellor’s predecessor. As we know, that spending envelope sees a very strong squeeze in spending right at the end of the forecast period. In fact, if health spending increases in the spending review next year by 2.7% in real terms, as it did in the last review, and the 3% defence target is met, there will be a black hole of £20 billion in the figures that the Chancellor has just presented.

We have seen the march of the PuFins—public financial institutions—in the Budget measures that have just been announced. We have seen £20.4 billion placed in the National Wealth Fund. Make no mistake: it should be clearly understood that this is additional borrowing. It does not matter whether it falls within the current definition of debt—the public sector net financial liabilities definition—and would have fallen outside the old definition of public sector net debt; the reality is that it is more money that this Government are borrowing.

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[Alex Ballinger]

rose—

[Graham Stuart]

I will not give way to the hon. Gentleman.

Coastal communities are losing out, and savers are being hit by a £500 million increase in tax—again, I do not think that has come through clearly. Some Members talk about this being good for pensioners, but it is not. Those who have saved and put money away for the future are going to be taxed again and again. We will see tax reach a new peak of 37.9% next year, and according to the Government what is going to happen? It is going to go up again. We will have sky-high borrowing and sky-high tax.

One would have thought that the central challenge for this Chancellor would have been to ensure we had a firm plan for defence spending to reach 3% by 2030. Did he deliver that? No he did not, which suggests that he resigned more to get the job than to do the right thing by defence.

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[Stuart Anderson (South Shropshire) (Con)]

It is interesting to follow the hon. Member for Lancaster and Wyre (Cat Smith), who started by talking about not having a mayor, and then how getting a mayor will open routes to funding. In South Shropshire, we do not have a mayor, and we are not looking to get one; most of what was said today excludes areas like mine that do not have local mayors. That is a big issue. I would categorise this Budget as one that fails rural communities and does not protect our nation, and I will back that up by outlining why.

I will start with the gambling tax. Ludlow racecourse is in my constituency, which Members will obviously all agree is the best in the country; along with the point-to-points, like Bitterley and Eyton races, Ludlow is really going to suffer from the gambling tax. It will have a massive impact, and there is a whole ecosystem around racecourses.

Let me turn to heating oil. As 53% of my constituents are not on mains gas, over half over my constituents will not benefit from those announcements in the Budget.

[Alex Ballinger]

A few people have mentioned heating oil in the debate. For those who have not looked at the detail of the Budget, there is a 4% reduction in heating oil tariffs among the announcements, and anyone who uses heating oil this winter will be getting £100. There is substantial support for people using heating oil; it is not just about gas.

[Stuart Anderson]

The price of heating oil is more than double what it was six months ago. I understand that that is because of international headwinds, and I believe that prices will probably go up significantly again because of what will happen over the next few weeks. However, 53% of my constituents do not feel that the support they are getting is comparable to what residents on gas are getting.

Let us look at pubs. The 166 pubs and four great breweries in South Shropshire tell me that the various rate rises they have seen over the past few years are having a massive impact on them. The minimum wage makes it very hard for them to employ young people, whether to give them their first step on the jobs ladder or because they want to earn extra money while at university. It is getting very hard.

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[Stuart Anderson]

I do not think the minimum wage should have gone up by 3.9% or 3.4%—whatever was announced today. I believe it should have been frozen for many years, or for several years. I definitely think we should have left it; I do not believe it should rise, because businesses cannot take it at the moment. We have to make firm decisions. Fewer young people will have work because of these rate rises.

I will turn to farming. The Chancellor spoke for an hour and a half, and there was not one thing about agriculture. Some 25% of my constituents work in agriculture, and the failed SFI26 window was a serious issue. Rural communities really do feel left behind. We have seen an attack on our rural communities, from the shotgun consultation to trail hunting—all those issues are vital to my constituency. This is huge. I think my constituency has the second highest number of shotgun licences in the country. It is a serious sport that is undertaken widely. There is just a continual drip, drip, drip of these policies.

I will finish on defence. The Chancellor resigned when he believed that defence was not funded well enough. In this year, there is a £3.5 billion cut, with a £1 billion cut in each of the next two years—that is in the RDEL figures on page 145 of the Red Book. That means that defence is now getting less funding than when the Chancellor resigned. The target to get to 3% by 2030—[Interruption.] It is! It is on page 145. Look at the in-year cuts. Look at the defence industry’s response to the Budget.

[Alex Ballinger]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Stuart Anderson]

I will not take any more interventions— I have already taken two.

Look at what the industry, from ADS across, is saying about these cuts.

Last week, the House found out that two or three Boxer projects were cut. We found out that DragonFire might not be on the Type 45s next year, as planned. We found out that there are training cuts that happen to have an impact on operational capability. We found out that there is a cut to single living accommodation. Does anybody seriously think that we are funding defence? We are nowhere near doing so.

When we were in government, I had many conversations saying, “This does not work,” and I publicly put it on record with the rest of the Defence Committee. We were facing serious issues, and we were not funding defence enough. I am very happy to say that. The strategic defence review set out almost 18 months ago that we face the most serious times since the cold war—though I believe it is since the second world war. Out of the NATO countries, only Iceland is rearming more slowly than us and it does not have a military.

I travel a lot within NATO countries, and I have been called out to speak on behalf of the UK by other countries’ Defence Ministers. I fed that back to the now Chancellor and he said, “I know; it is embarrassing.” On the international stage, we are nowhere near where we should be. Our approach to defence is seriously failing. This Budget fails rural communities and it fails defence.