Budget Responsibility and National Audit Bill [Lords]

Baroness Clark of Kilwinning Excerpts

Monday 14th February 2011 Commons Chamber

[Justine Greening]

My hon. Friend is right. The fact that, for the first time, official forecasts will be prepared by a body that is independent of the Treasury is critical. It will not only return credibility to the assessment of whether the Government are on course to meet their fiscal mandate, but will make that more likely to happen. I believe that Governments will be reticent about introducing policies that seem to take them off course. There is a clear distinction between the responsibilities involved. The fiscal mandate and the policies will continue to be determined by Ministers. It is not for the OBR to do that; what it must do is assess the economic and fiscal forecasts in the light of those policies, and in the light of their likelihood of meeting the fiscal mandate.

[Katy Clark (North Ayrshire and Arran) (Lab)]

Does the Minister agree that growth is key to economic recovery, and that the recent negative growth figures have destabilised the Government’s economic policy? Is it not worrying that the OBR has already revised its growth forecast from 2.6% when the Government took power to 2.3% following the emergency Budget, and to 2.1% following the spending review?

[Justine Greening]

I think that demonstrates the value of the OBR. For the first time we shall have a set of entirely independent forecasts to which Members can refer.

The hon. Lady has strayed on to the detail and implications of the policy, and I think that it is perfectly fair for her to do so. We have always said—I believe that Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, said the same last year—that the recovery would be choppy. It is not at all unusual for an economy emerging from recession, particularly a recession as long and severe as the one that we have undergone, to experience at least one instance of either flat or negative growth.

I do not want to be called to order, Mr Deputy Speaker, so I shall move on. Let me simply say to the hon. Lady that she has confirmed my point that benefiting from independent forecasts for the first time will be key to holding a good-quality, informed political debate about the Government’s economic policy and how it is progressing, and that the OBR has also said that we are on course to achieve our fiscal mandate.