Western Balkans: Dayton Peace Agreement

Baroness Helic Excerpts

Tuesday 17th October 2023 Lords Chamber

Asked by

[Baroness Helic]

To ask His Majesty’s Government what consideration they have given to the security and political situation in the Western Balkans and challenges to the Dayton Peace Agreement within and outside Bosnia and Herzegovina.

[Baroness Helic (Con)]

My Lords, I declare my interest as a vice-chair of the APPG for Bosnia and Herzegovina.

This debate comes at a time of global insecurity: from Ukraine to Sudan, from Kosovo to Nagorno-Karabakh, from Israel and Gaza to the Sahel and the South China Sea, frozen conflicts are all heating up. Collectively we bear some responsibility. We are often too ready to believe that the conflicts will go away, will sort themselves out, that they do not concern us. The tragic situation in Israel and Gaza reminds us that that is not the case; foreign conflicts can quickly become domestic issues. But it is my hope—even though peace and security are based not on hope but on realities on the ground—that as frozen conflicts are reignited one by one, the western Balkans will avoid that fate.

For 30 years, Britain has played an important role in the region, learning some painful lessons in the early 1990s and leading in driving forward progress in the early 2000s, not least through the work of champions of justice and peace such as the late Lord Ashdown, which is carried on now through the expert contribution of the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Peach. Today, as the world is ever more unstable, we must look at our policy in the Balkans and ask: is it working?

For two decades, our policy was predicated on the idea that the prospect of EU membership would be enough to encourage reform and progress and deter warmongering and attempts to redraw borders. But the pull of EU membership has lacked credibility for years and has been undermined by concerted efforts by Moscow to reshape the region and challenge NATO and the EU there. Perhaps, as the EU thinks about the future of Ukraine and Moldova and more actively pursues enlargement in the Balkans, that will change over the long term.

However, we cannot rely on hope: not in Kosovo, with the recent killing of a police officer there by heavily armed Serbian militants, or the injuring of 30 NATO soldiers earlier this year, accompanied by the movement of significant Serbian armed forces units to the border with Kosovo; not in Montenegro, where Russia pursues destabilisation operations, sowing division and seeking to undermine Montenegro’s democracy and Euro-Atlantic direction; not in North Macedonia, where Russia has been spreading disinformation, seeking to exploit the Orthodox Church for propaganda purposes, and to prevent the resolution of disputes with Bulgaria which are holding up EU accession; and not in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where separatists work with Moscow and Budapest to weaken the capacity of the Bosnian state and its institutions, seeking to undermine the integrity of the country.

The Dayton peace agreement brought peace to Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1995 through skilful diplomacy, trade-offs, and military pressure on the combatants. Over the last decade, the leadership of the Bosnian entity of Republika Srpska—the entity constructed by the Dayton agreement—has repeatedly sought to pick apart, render irrelevant, and ultimately destroy the peace accords and with them the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the last year alone, RS leaders have passed illegitimate laws seeking to ignore rulings of the constitutional court, created parallel state structures, armed police not for policing but for other scenarios, adopted laws to appropriate state property, and sought to frame the administrative boundary between the two Bosnian entities as a hard border that can be closed off by barricades and the local police rather than be passed freely like we do here when we pass from Kent to Surrey. Citizens of Bosnia fear that this is preparation for secession.

Most worryingly, in Brussels, Washington and even here in London, at times our western Balkans policy seems to have alarming echoes of the 1990s: a baseless hope that no one would dare or want to challenge the peace, that there is no intention to challenge internationally recognised borders, and that we can find an accommodation with Belgrade if only we concede a little more. Yet, whether in Montenegro, North Macedonia, Kosovo or Bosnia and Herzegovina, there is no evidence that the current Serbian Government, our chosen partner in the region, are committed to being a benign neighbour. President Vučić does not sign up to the agreements that he negotiates, and if he does, they are not implemented. Senior government figures continue to speak about and plan for a “Serbian world” just as Russia speaks and acts on the “Russian world”. Serbia’s rearmament speaks even more clearly: procuring planes from Russia, surface-to-air missiles and drones from China and, most recently, up to 1,000 kamikaze drones from Iran, I regret to say that this is not the sign of a Government committed to peace but of one flexing their military capability. I hope the Ministry of Defence has taken note and will review our arms exports to Serbia in view of this development.

The foundation of peace and security is deterrence. Taking on the threat of aggression or violent secession is a crucial prerequisite to creating confidence and the space for political progress. Maintaining and strengthening the deployment of KFOR troops in Kosovo is crucial. I therefore pay tribute to the men and women of our Armed Forces who serve in Kosovo and I commend the Defence Secretary on his quick and decisive action in authorising the recent extra deployment. But a similar level of deterrence is needed in Bosnia and Herzegovina too. My noble friend the Minister knows that I have already called for the UK to rejoin EUFOR. A modest deployment by the UK would have an outsized impact, strengthening the deterrent against attempts to break up the country with violence, and avoiding the need for the larger response that would be required if the situation were to escalate unchecked. EUFOR’s mandate is up for renewal at the UN Security Council next month. If Russia, which has used its veto over Bosnia before, blocks it or tries to weaken it yet again, we must be prepared for NATO to step into the role, as it has the legal authority to do under the Dayton peace accords. Whether under EUFOR or NATO, there is a need for more troops and more capable equipment. Bosnia and Herzegovina is almost five times the size of Kosovo and has nearly twice as many citizens, yet EUFOR has only 1,100 troops, about a quarter of the number in KFOR.

Almost 30 years on from Dayton, the focus in Bosnia and Herzegovina should be on political reform: taking the next steps beyond the peace of Dayton to being a prosperous civic democracy. But, so long as the sovereignty and security of Bosnia and Herzegovina are under threat, the space for reform will be severely limited. It is desperately necessary, but without security it will not happen.

In the 1990s, the ex-Yugoslav states were more advanced and richer than the Baltic states. Today, the security provided by NATO membership and the opportunities of the EU have helped the Baltic countries leap ahead of the western Balkans. That is the journey which the region must hope to replicate, but if we do not confront Russian malign influence and backward interference, it will not be possible.

I therefore suggest that His Majesty’s Government work actively to agree a new joint strategy with our partners in the United States and the EU to ensure that we represent a united front making clear that there is no space for violence in the Balkans. Together, we can and must send a strong message about the cost for anyone who tries to drag the region back to the 1990s.

We have a choice to make. We can wake up one day to face a serious crisis, an escalation bringing conflict, instability and insecurity into the heart of Europe, or we can invest in a credible deterrent now, recalibrate our diplomacy and work with our allies to reduce the threats of instability to the western Balkans and to our own interests.