Lord Judge Portrait Lord Judge (CB)
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My Lords, I just wonder what Clause 18 is supposed to mean. Does it really mean that the Minister of the Crown may do whatever he likes? Yes, it does; that was what we were discussing on Wednesday, when noble Lords and the Government listened to me. I had a dream over the weekend that the Minister today is going to get up and say, “Lord Judge, you were entirely right on Wednesday. We have changed our minds: we are going to put this Bill into proper shape”.

Baroness McIntosh of Pickering Portrait Baroness McIntosh of Pickering (Con)
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My Lords, I take this opportunity to ask my noble friend the Minister what discussions there have been with the devolved Assemblies and Parliaments as to the process that will be used if these regulations are brought forward.

Baroness Altmann Portrait Baroness Altmann (Con)
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My Lords, I support Amendments 36 and 38 for the reasons that have been so eloquently set out already—I do not think that I need to repeat them. The idea that Parliament is passing a law to allow a Minister to do whatever he likes without coming back to Parliament seems to be quite breathtaking. That is nothing to do necessarily with Northern Ireland or Brexit; that is to do with our parliamentary democracy. On the question of whether Clause 18 should stand part of the Bill, I would certainly support its removal.

I confess that I find it difficult to accept that just changing “appropriate” to “necessary” will actually sort out the problem that is inherent in so many of the measures in this Bill, because a Minister could easily just say that they are doing it because they think it “necessary”. Who is going to be able to challenge that? The law would still be changed.

I support the idea put forward by the noble Baronesses, Lady Ritchie and Lady Suttie, of at least having approval from the Northern Ireland Assembly. This would once again be an example of the British Government doing something with Northern Ireland, rather than to Northern Ireland—as the current wording would imply.

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Lord Kerr of Kinlochard Portrait Lord Kerr of Kinlochard (CB)
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I have reached the same conclusion as the noble Lord, Lord Cormack, but via a slightly different route. I heard the noble Baroness and the noble Lord refer to talks proceeding amicably and constructively. The noble Lord, Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon, has regularly assured us from his own involvement in the talks that they are proceeding satisfactorily and are in no way being derailed by this Bill.

I am miles away from the action, of course—like the noble Lord, Lord Dodds of Duncairn, I would be very grateful if the Government could find the time to give us some reports on the talks from time to time—but I get a rather different impression of the view in Brussels. My impression is that there is not a great deal going on in these talks, and that the officials involved do not have the kind of instructions which give them discretion to do any negotiating. My impression is that British Ministers are not particularly hands-on, that they are not very closely involved in the talks and that, in fact, no real political input and impetus has been given as yet.

On the EU side, I think there is a natural tendency to wait and see whether the arrival of a new Government and a new Prime Minister in Britain will bring about any changes in the British position. The Commission has succeeded in persuading the member states that the CJEU cases against us can be left in limbo for the moment; a number of member states would have preferred to proceed to having these cases heard, but they stay in limbo and there seems to be a sort of consensus on that. But there is absolutely no pressure that I can detect among member states for any softening of Šefčovič’s mandate or any change in the instructions he is getting, perhaps partly because they are waiting to see whether there is some change in the instructions our people have. I detect no sign of anybody believing that Šefčovič’s instructions will change while the threat of this Bill hangs over the negotiations.

In my view—I repeat that I am miles away from the action, so I may be quite wrong—the only real debate among member states is whether contingency planning should be started on their side and whether it is this Bill reaching the statute book or actual use of the powers it contains that should trigger resort to action. The action would of course be the end of the talks and the necessary review of the terms of the trade and co-operation agreement. I think everybody believes that in Brussels. As the noble Earl, Lord Kinnoull, reminded us on our last day of Committee, we committed ourselves in the TCA to carrying out our obligations as in the withdrawal agreement, which include the protocol. So if we were to use the powers in this Bill or, as some say—I am among them—put this Bill on the statute book, we would be in breach of not just the withdrawal agreement but the TCA.

So I think the debate is about contingency planning for that eventuality, rather than for any change or softening of the EU position in the talks. Therefore, it seems to me, we should recognise that what we are doing here, if we were to pass this Bill, is setting ourselves up for a rather serious trade war with the EU and for the return of all the problems in Northern Ireland that will result from Northern Ireland no longer being a member of the single market. We will go back to a different form of frontier problem, from which the protocol was designed to have us escape.

So I reach exactly the same conclusion as did the noble Lord, Lord Cormack, but by a slightly different route. I do not think that the talks are going particularly well, and I hope that the noble Lord, Lord Ahmad, will act on the promise that he made on our last day in Committee to see if he could ensure that we receive progress reports on the talks. Though I am miles away from the action, it seems to me that, if we proceed with this Bill, we are heading straight into a thunderstorm that will sink the ship.

Baroness McIntosh of Pickering Portrait Baroness McIntosh of Pickering (Con)
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Before the noble Lord sits down, could he go one step further and ask my noble friend the Minister, in responding to this debate, to say whether he agrees with the analysis of the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, which I do, that we would be in breach not only of the withdrawal agreement but of the trade and co-operation agreement? It would be very good to get that on the record at this stage. Will he just go so far as to press the Minister, in summing up, to say whether he agrees with his analysis?

Lord Cormack Portrait Lord Cormack (Con)
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He has done so.

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Moved by
71: Clause 26, page 15, line 45, at end insert—
“(3A) Regulations under subsection (3) may not bring any such provision into force before 31 December 2026.”Member’s explanatory statement
This amendment delays the coming into effect of most of the legislation until 31 December 2026.
Baroness McIntosh of Pickering Portrait Baroness McIntosh of Pickering (Con)
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My Lords, I am grateful for the opportunity to move this simple amendment. Basically, I am suggesting that the Bill, if it were to carry, would not enter into force before 31 December 2026.

On a number of occasions my noble friend Lord Ahmad has repeated that it is the Government’s firm belief that by proceeding with this Bill on the Northern Ireland protocol, they are not jeopardising our relations—particularly our trade relations—with the European Union. Personally, I agree very much with the sentiments of the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, who said earlier that the Bill not just breaches the EU withdrawal agreement but would breach the terms of the trade and co-operation agreement agreed with the EU following our departure.

Today we hear from Egypt that the Prime Minister had his first meeting with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. At the same time, we have also heard that European Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič—apologies for my pronunciation —has stated that there would clearly be ramifications for trade should the Government persist with this Bill.

This amendment is, if you like, a get-out clause for my noble friend if he were to follow my advice and better judgment and pause the Bill at this time. There are other ways of dealing with the very real sentiments raised by my noble friends on the DUP Benches and others, and I do not believe that the Bill is the right vehicle to do that. It is my firm belief that the best way forward is through negotiation, not intimidation. I am sure my party would wish to distance itself from any form of intimidation, in whatever shape or form it comes.

That is my plea to my noble friend the Minister and the Government at this time: if they persist with the Bill, they should agree with Amendment 71 that the Act would not come into effect before 31 December 2026. I beg to move.

Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon Portrait Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon (Con)
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My Lords, I thank my noble friend for moving the amendment. I understand and acknowledge that she wishes to create the space for negotiations, but the Government have passed the Bill through the other place and introduced it to your Lordships’ House because of the situation in Northern Ireland. For more than four years the situation has continued in a very challenging way. Furthermore, it is the Government’s view that this amendment, if agreed, would remove their ability to rapidly implement any new agreement via Clause 19.

As my noble friend will be aware—we have discussed it several times during the passage of the Bill in Committee and at Second Reading, and it was a point made by several of our colleagues and my noble friends from Northern Ireland—the Assembly has not sat since February and there is ongoing business disruption across the economy. Much of this can be aligned to the unworkability and lack of operability of the protocol.

From our perspective as the Government, it would be a sad dereliction of our duty if we were just to let the current situation continue. Although I hear what my noble friend says—she expressed her opinion about my right honourable friend meeting the President of the European Commission and our continued discussions with the EU Commissioner leading the negotiations—there is nothing more I can really add to what I have said already.

From my perspective and that of the Government, we do not feel that this amendment would be helpful to our current position. Therefore, we cannot support it and I hope my noble friend will be minded to withdraw it.

Baroness McIntosh of Pickering Portrait Baroness McIntosh of Pickering (Con)
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I am grateful to my noble friend for his response and I will consider what to do between now and Report. I believe this amendment would give the possibility of reaching consensus and agreement in Northern Ireland, so that democratic legitimacy can be returned, and enable us to meet our international obligations. For the moment, I beg leave to withdraw the amendment.

Amendment 71 withdrawn.