Electric and Low-emission Vehicles

David Mowat Excerpts

Wednesday 15th June 2016 Westminster Hall

[Glyn Davies]

My hon. Friend is absolutely right. We do not know exactly what the future holds. We should use the term “ultra-low emission vehicles,” rather than “electric vehicles,” because hydrogen fuel cell technology may well develop quicker. Things change incredibly quickly. It is only five years since the companies starting producing electric cars. In another five years, who knows? Hydrogen fuel cells might be the future, but that technology requires massive infrastructure investment, too. Unless people can charge their car at a reasonable distance from home, the industry will not take off. That is one of the issues the Government face. There has to be an element of assessment of what the future will be, but having said that, we must be prepared for technology and invention taking us down a road that we had not wholly anticipated taking.

There are three points that I wish to raise with the Government; I am keen to hear the Minister’s response to them. First, I am not a natural regulator, or a person who would naturally support new licensing regimes; I would probably support the opposite approach. However, this is a massive industry. The IMI claims that by 2030 there will be a commercial and social benefit of £51 billion. I do not know how accurate that figure is, but clearly there will be a huge commercial benefit from what is going to happen. There is potential for a huge export business. All those things will happen, but we must have the safety and the technicians. Developing that side of the industry is important. It is not just about having the ability to manufacture cars; we also need the technicians to support that industry, and at the moment we just do not have them. We have to develop a system to deal with the safety aspects, and probably to help the development of a professionalism in working with these low-emission vehicles.

The Government might have to consider providing financial support, and they will certainly have to introduce a licensing system, because one death in an electric vehicle would clearly be massively tragic for the individual concerned and their family, and also tragic for the entire industry. A report of a death from an electric car on the front page of the Daily Mail would inflict a massive blow on an industry that I think will be hugely important to the future economy of our country.

The second issue is whether the Government should financially support a training industry. Again, I am not a natural supporter of Government intervention, through finance, in commercial markets, but the Government already support the development of the electric car industry. We offer grant support for the purchase of new vehicles, to reduce their price and to develop the industry, so I do not see any reason why we ought not to consider supporting the training infrastructure that is absolutely vital if the industry is to develop successfully. That is another issue that I would quite like to hear the Minister comment on.

The third issue is about the IMI. I have been very grateful for its advice and support; it makes a very strong argument on this issue, and that has informed some of the things that I have said this morning. I hope that the Minister would consider meeting the IMI to talk through the points that it makes very powerfully and persuasively. In my view, such a meeting would be very helpful, and I hope that the Minister is willing to agree to it.

[David Mowat (Warrington South) (Con)]

My hon. Friend is giving the Minister some good points to consider; I have a further point that he might wish to consider about this industry. In most EU countries, electric cars increase carbon emissions because of our current generating profile. As was rightly said, the fifth carbon budget is under consideration. Do we not need to be aware that this technology, at least for the next decade, will potentially increase carbon emissions in the UK and most parts of Europe?

[Glyn Davies]

I thank my hon. Friend for that intervention. That is a comment I have heard before. However, we are developing a completely new technology. The aim is lower emissions. We are trying to reach a decarbonisation target. Unless we achieve the aim of decarbonisation, this industry will not deliver what we want. However, I think that in the longer run, this is the route that we will go down. Practically, this is what is going to happen, and we need to take commercial advantage of this opportunity.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Goodwill]

I suspect that that question should be put to the Chancellor of the Exchequer, but falling duty levels from petrol and diesel because we have embraced this new technology would be a very good problem to have. Dare I say it, but I am sure the Chancellor or future Chancellors will come up with other, more devious ways of collecting tax from everyday people. As someone who owns a car constructed in 1900, I am well aware of the problems—particularly in the UK, as we were so slow to embrace the gasoline engine car—that people had refuelling their cars. They are not unlike the problems that people are having in charging their electric vehicles.

The electric vehicle only really makes sense on a slow overnight charge, when we have surplus electricity in the grid. Although fast charging is there to address issues of range, there is not really a prospect of thousands and thousands of cars up and down the country fast-charging at service stations. Electric cars make sense in terms of overnight charging at home.

A point was made earlier about sustainable electricity. We talk about zero tailpipe emissions, but that electricity has to be generated somewhere. Germany has sustainable delivery, but given its decision to abandon its nuclear programme and rely more on fossil fuels, the way that hydrogen and electricity are generated is a problem when it comes to better electric and hydrogen vehicles. Norway, with its large amounts of hydroelectricity, is well able to take that up.

Another point raised in an intervention was about electric cars as a means of storage. I was recently at a conference in Germany, where that issue was raised with Tesla. One of the issues is the number of cycles that a car’s battery may have to undergo if it is used as a means of storing electricity to be released into the grid. Some of the manufacturers are concerned that the battery life of their vehicles—it is very good, and better than many expected—could be compromised by large numbers of charge cycles being used in that way. An alternative is that when cars are scrapped the old batteries could be put into banks and used for emergency power supplies in hospitals or to augment the grid.

[David Mowat]

I was listening carefully to what the Minister said about the potential for increased carbon emissions due to this technology, notwithstanding the storage point, which I accept. He said that there were 28,000 electric cars in the UK. Does his Department make any attempt to measure the incremental increase in carbon emissions that that has caused, given our current generating profile and our likely profile in the short term? Is that number measured at all? I know that is an issue for the Energy and Climate Change Committee.

[Mr Goodwill]

The calculation certainly needs to be done as we roll out these vehicles. I expect that the Department of Energy and Climate Change is making those predictions. It depends, as my hon. Friend said, not only on the proportion of sustainable vehicles in the fleet, but on how that electricity is generated, particularly off-peak and overnight. Nuclear energy—the Government are determined to press forward in building a new fleet of stations—is ideally suited to overnight charging using off-peak electricity.

Throughout this Parliament, charging infrastructure will also be delivered through dedicated schemes for cleaner buses and taxis. As part of the £40-million “Go Ultra Low” city scheme, millions of pounds of funding will contribute to infrastructure deployment across eight cities in the UK. Those projects are focused on the most advanced technology for fast, reliable, smart and easily accessible charging for every driver. Highways England, which the Government have more control over than cities, has £15 million of funding to ensure that there is a charge point every 20 miles across 95% of the strategic road network, with rapid charging where possible.

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles also have an important role in decarbonising road transport. I heard what my hon. Friend the Member for Montgomeryshire had to say about driving the BMW vehicle. I drove the Honda vehicle, and it was no different from driving any other car, which is probably a problem solved. It was a pleasure, and I did not know that it did not have a normal engine under the bonnet. We are supporting infrastructure provision in line with the current state of market development. The Government provided £5 million of funding to help develop 12 publicly accessible hydrogen refuelling stations to support the roll-out of hydrogen vehicles. All 12 are being commissioned during the course of this year and will provide a significant first step towards an initial hydrogen refuelling network.

Just last month, a refuelling station in Teddington in London was officially opened by the Under-Secretary of State for Transport, my hon. Friend the Member for Harrogate and Knaresborough (Andrew Jones). The network of stations will support vehicle manufacturers that are introducing their first models of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Indeed, our support for hydrogen for transport has helped secure the UK’s status as one of only a handful of global launch markets for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

There is much more that I could have said about our ambitions to press forward with this new technology. I am grateful to my hon. Friend for securing this debate on an important subject. I underline the Government’s commitment to ensuring that these sustainable new technologies are rolled out in the UK.

Question put and agreed to.

West Coast Rail Franchise

David Mowat Excerpts

Tuesday 14th June 2016 Westminster Hall

[John Stevenson]

My right hon. Friend makes a valid point. Indeed, we must not lose sight of the fact that there should be integration within our transport system, between the railways, the airports and the road and bus networks.

The important thing about the new franchise is that we get it right. It needs to be right for passengers, fair for the taxpayer, right for the industry and right for those who work in the industry—we must not overlook their contribution to the network. Therefore, the level and quality of service, investment in all aspects of service and ticket pricing are some of the key issues. I am sure that other Members will have their own issues, but I want to concentrate on four in particular.

First, there is the customer and service level. It is often the small things that matter, particularly to passengers and customers, and there is key evidence of issues that customers want the forthcoming franchise to address. These include car parking—the pricing, the number of spaces and the availability at key times. Another issue is luggage and storage on trains. Many people have commented that the storage is at the end of each carriage and they would prefer it to be closer to where they are sitting. They have also commented that there should be more space for luggage. Toilet facilities and wi-fi clearly need improvement. Wi-fi has improved at stations, but there is definitely an issue—I speak from personal experience—on the trains themselves, and customers are keen to see wi-fi improved.

Then we have congestion. Carlisle, I have to confess, is a quiet station compared with many others, but at Euston there is what many call the Euston sprint—people charging for the train, sometimes in an unedifying manner. There is clearly room for improvement on that in the franchise in the future. Customers’ views and opinions need to be heard, and there needs to be an appropriate conduit between the customer—the passenger—and the train companies and, indeed, on into Government. In my own experience, customer care has been positive overall, but customer service questionnaires demonstrate that there is still a lot of room for improvement.

Then we have ticket pricing. What is the Government’s overall aim? What balance do the Government want to see between the taxpayer and the passenger? What about the link between the retail prices index and the consumer prices index? What about competition? Those issues need to be addressed in the forthcoming franchise. I appreciate that revenue raising and the balance between the taxpayer and the passenger are important for the Government, but they are also important for the passenger and the taxpayer.

[David Mowat (Warrington South) (Con)]

I congratulate my hon. Friend on leading the charge on this issue. The things he has listed are best addressed if there is proper competition in the franchise process. Does he agree with me and the National Audit Office that unless the Government get at least three or four participants in the bidding process, there will be a risk of inadequate competition? Does he also agree that, although Virgin has given an adequate service—in some ways, a good one —the Government must ensure that it does not have too big an incumbency advantage in the bidding process?

--- Later in debate ---

[Drew Hendry]

Absolutely. I hope the Minister will act on the hon. Gentleman’s promotion of Carlisle by committing to look into connecting the new Borders railway with Carlisle. Perhaps that is something we could investigate as well. It would benefit many more people.

As I said, at the time of the franchise process, there was no communication with the Scottish Government. On the basis of the Minister’s comments, I am hopeful that that will change in future years.

As for the passenger experience, people in the 21st century have a right to enjoy a train journey. There ought to be a focus on working with others to deliver improvements to stations and to the passenger experience. The points that the hon. Member for Carlisle made when he spoke about improving the passenger experience are all vital to ensuring that overcrowding is reduced, that ticketing is sorted out properly and that integrated journeys are increasingly facilitated across all the stations in England and across the border into Scotland as well.

The UK Government should ensure that the new franchisee makes fares affordable across the piece. The Scottish Government have already taken action to ensure that fares are affordable across the Scottish rail network, by ensuring that their new franchisee will continue to limit regulated peak fare increases to the level of the retail prices index. Regulated off-peak fares will also be limited to increases of 1% below RPI for the lifetime of a 10-year franchise. The Scottish Government are making the best of the system that the UK Government continue to persist with. The Conservative UK Government introduced railway franchising in the 1990s, and the legislation precludes any public sector organisation from bidding to operate a railway service. No such barrier applies to state-backed organisations from Europe or elsewhere. That is patently unfair, so I hope we can look at how we can adjust that.

The SNP tabled a new clause in the Scotland Bill that would have devolved rail services in Scotland, giving Scottish Ministers full powers and flexibility to decide who would run such services. However, like every other SNP amendment to the Scotland Bill, it was voted down by MPs. The new clause also sought to ensure that the provisions of the Railways Act 1993 allowed direct awards to be made, to the full extent possible under European law, for the operation of rail passenger services such as the ScotRail Caledonian sleeper.

As a result of the franchise deal in Scotland, passengers and staff will enjoy an enhanced range of benefits, with advance fares between Scottish cities starting at £5, a commitment to pay at least the real living wage—the one applied in Scotland—to all staff and subcontractors, at least 100 apprenticeships and a guarantee of no compulsory redundancies.

[David Mowat]

I was waiting to see whether the hon. Gentleman would address an issue that I am interested in. One day HS2 or a high-speed line will go to Scotland. Do the Scottish Government have a position on whether they would prefer that line to go up the west or the east coast?

[Drew Hendry]

At the moment, the Scottish Government’s position is that we must be included in the discussions. The UK Government have brought forward no plans to ensure that we are connected by HS2. It is vital to us that the routes that connect Birmingham and the central belt in Scotland are electrified immediately or as quickly as possible. As for the high-speed line, it is very difficult for me to give the hon. Gentleman a basis for our policy without seeing UK Government Ministers’ plans, because we have to scrutinise them to decide what is best for Scotland.

Rail staff pensions and travel rights are protected under the Scottish franchise. Crucially—this has come up a number of times—to make sure that we are connected and do business properly, there will be free wi-fi on all trains. That is often missing on journeys down here. There will be a new approach to cycling, with more than 3,500 parking spaces and bike hire at a number of stations. Eighty new trains are due to arrive at the start of December 2017, and there will be 23% more carriages across the network.

As I said earlier, the west coast main line affects Scotland. I mentioned the five stations. Passengers must have fast, frequent, reliable and punctual services connecting Scotland to London. The UK Government must commit to ensuring that the Scottish Government are much more involved in the future franchise.

--- Later in debate ---

[Claire Perry]

I am agnostic on such things, but I can see no benefit in that. I do not know who in my Department the hon. Gentleman thinks would do a better job of running the west coast railway than those who do so now. I remind him that before privatisation, 14 trains a day ran between London and Manchester; 47 brand-new trains now run, with fantastic on-board services, of which we have all availed ourselves. I cannot see why he is so obsessed with the idea of civil servants running companies. The west coast case is a good example of how the private sector has invested.

Before I move on to the bulk of my speech, I want to associate myself with the comments of the Opposition spokesperson, the hon. Member for Middlesbrough (Andy McDonald), on the tragic loss of the Clerk to the HS2 Committee. It was an absolute tragedy, and we would all want to pass on our condolences to his family, and to put on record what a wonderful job he and that Committee did in very difficult circumstances.

As my hon. Friend the Member for Carlisle said, the west coast franchise has been a real success story; for example, we have seen a big increase in passenger numbers, a big improvement in passenger satisfaction, and capacity increase by more than 2,000 seats a day. The franchise is also leading the way with automatic delay repay, so people who buy a ticket on the west coast trains website and find that their train has been delayed do not have to do anything; they automatically get a refund if the train is delayed by more than 30 minutes. That is an excellent piece of passenger-facing innovation. The franchise has also put free wi-fi into 17 stations—I will talk about wi-fi on trains in a moment—and several other obligations have been delivered, or are in the process of being delivered. To reassure Members who asked about this, the company is replacing self-service machines, improving concourse and ticket-retailing facilities, upgrading waiting rooms and loos in many stations, and putting in about 350 new cycle racks. About £20 million is being spent along the route.

[David Mowat]

The Minister mentioned the automatic repayment system for delays, which is a good thing at one level, but the risk is that it might cause defensive timetabling. Companies have no incentive to take that extra few minutes off the journey time. Will she give us some assurance that that is not happening?

[Claire Perry]

Yes, I absolutely will. When any service that is this busy tries to stretch out timetables to avoid paying compensation, it simply creates more disruption, given how complicated the routes are. The company has no incentive to monkey with the timetable in order to avoid its compensation payment obligations. Furthermore, the company, in common with all train operating companies, receives money from Network Rail in the case of a Network Rail cause of failure, so again, properly, that money should be paid out to customers.

The improvement in the conversion of rolling stock has been mentioned. The company has been taking out first-class seating to include more standard-class seats, which is important. Those services can be very crowded, particularly in the shoulders—the times around the peaks.

[David Mowat]

I thank the Minister for giving way again. Will she give an assurance that, if it were possible for whichever company wins the franchise to take five minutes off the journey time to Warrington, for example, there would be no defensive timetabling, penalties, or other disincentives to stop that? That is important to making progress.

[Claire Perry]

My hon. Friend’s point about avoiding defensive timetabling is absolutely right. I will come on to talk about how everyone can make their important proposals for the new franchise. We want the franchise due to start in 2018 to put the customers on the route absolutely at the heart of the service, continuing some of the innovation and progress that has been delivered. We know that we need more capacity on the route, better value for money, improved punctuality—it is improving, but it is not good enough—and better management of disruption. By the way, those are things we want, and are contracting for, right across the country.

Oral Answers to Questions

David Mowat Excerpts

Thursday 28th January 2016 Commons Chamber

The Secretary of State was asked—

[David Mowat (Warrington South) (Con)]

1. What progress has been made on finalising the route for phase 2 of High Speed 2.

[The Secretary of State for Transport (Mr Patrick McLoughlin)]

May I associate myself with your remarks, Mr Speaker, to both members of staff who are retiring and wish them well in their retirement? I am sure they would be welcome to come back and observe us in a different role, if they so wished.

In November last year I confirmed plans for accelerating the construction of phase 2 from the west midlands to Crewe so that it opens in 2027, six years earlier than planned. We are developing our plans for the rest of phase 2 and I intend to make decisions on the rest of the route by the autumn at the latest.

[David Mowat]

The Secretary of State will be aware that HS2 Ltd is currently evaluating a proposal to extend the line north of Manchester to Wigan. The cost of that is around £1 billion but as yet no incremental business or economic case has been produced. Will my right hon. Friend undertake that, before a decision is taken to extend the line north of Manchester, a business case will be laid before this House so that it can be reviewed?

Airports Capacity

David Mowat Excerpts

Monday 14th December 2015 Commons Chamber

[Mr McLoughlin]

My hon. Friend is absolutely right, in that whatever decision is finally taken—three options are still being discussed—we must get the best mitigation deals possible for the people affected. The three points he mentioned would certainly be important considerations in any decision, including if the decision should be taken for Heathrow. As I say, we are looking at three options.

[David Mowat (Warrington South) (Con)]

The Government seem to have one of two positions, and I would be interested to understand which one it is. Either we have accepted the Davies commission, subject to sorting out these environmental issues, and therefore we will go down that route if we are able, or we have now decided that there are three equal options and we are looking at all three from scratch. Which of the two routes are we going to go down?

[Mr McLoughlin]

We have accepted the Davies report on the need for capacity by 2030 and the three options, and it is those three options that we are looking at. I know the Davies commission supported one in particular, but the Government have to look at all three of the options available.

Oral Answers to Questions

David Mowat Excerpts

Thursday 29th October 2015 Commons Chamber

[Claire Perry]

The hon. Gentleman shakes his head. He should do my job and listen to people campaigning to keep level crossings open. The work will happen. It is absolutely right to focus on it and we will continue to fund it. There is no shortage of money for it—£109 million will be spent on making level crossings safer.

[David Mowat (Warrington South) (Con)]

4. What progress the Government have made on finalising the route for phase two High Speed 2.

[The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Transport (Mr Robert Goodwill)]

We have committed to setting out the Government’s plan for the HS2 phase two route in an update to the House before the end of this year.

[David Mowat]

I thank the Minister for the time he and his officials have spent with me recently to discuss the Golborne link. The initial justification for the link was a proposed depot in Wigan, but that depot will now not be located in Wigan. The only justification that remains is the 10 minutes saved by train journeys north of Wigan. Will the Minister confirm that if that standalone link north of Manchester goes ahead, it will be subject to a separate business case so that we can examine its business case review?

[Mr Goodwill]

We are certainly considering all the recommendations made by Sir David Higgins in his report, “Rebalancing Britain”. Sir David believes that the link to the west coast mainline is needed sooner rather than later. The alternative, which would mean linking to the west coast mainline at Crewe, would mean upgrading the west coast mainline to take on the additional services. That could be costly and disruptive. Indeed, it would incur those dreadful words “Replacement bus services” for many weeks.

Infrastructure Bill [Lords]

David Mowat Excerpts

Monday 26th January 2015 Commons Chamber

[Amber Rudd]

The hon. Gentleman is entirely right. It is absolutely essential that we do also maximise economic recovery, and we will be coming on to that later in this debate.

[David Mowat (Warrington South) (Con)]

The Minister rightly said that the displacement of coal by gas could make a massive impact on reducing our carbon emissions. But it is also right to say that that is no good if countries such as Germany go down the coal route. Does she think she can persuade those countries to follow us in going towards gas more quickly?

[Amber Rudd]

We will certainly do our best. The UK is a leader in Europe in providing our own example and in trying to corral our European partners to ensure that we move to a low carbon economy.

Oral Answers to Questions

David Mowat Excerpts

Thursday 22nd January 2015 Commons Chamber

[Claire Perry]

I thought that the hon. Lady was going to celebrate the fact that her own station is receiving a £100 million upgrade. As she should know, there were more than 2,000 engineering sites over the holiday period. Two of them—particularly important ones—ran over time.

I want to address the points made by the hon. Member for Barnsley East (Michael Dugher) about comments I was alleged to have made in a column. Anyone who read that column over Christmas would have seen that I am far from pleased with railway performance. We must do better for passengers. Only a lowly headline writer at the Sunday People, an idiot or a politician who has no policies of his own would describe my words in such a way. This Government care about the railways. That lot think we are a bunch of trainspotters.

[David Mowat (Warrington South) (Con)]

4. What estimate he has made of the benefit-cost ratio of the High Speed 2 line north of Manchester.

[The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Transport (Mr Robert Goodwill)]

The Department has not estimated the case for the western leg of the Y-shaped route for High Speed 2 without the connection to the west coast main line north of Manchester. However, preliminary analysis undertaken by HS2 Ltd suggested that this section of the line is likely to provide revenue of about £600 million and wider benefits in the order of £1.2 billion.

[David Mowat]

The Minister will be aware that the recent HS2 route review stated that the Wigan spur was under review. Subsequently, HS2 leadership has stated that its recommendation is that the Wigan spur be dropped, saving £2 billion with no detrimental impact on the business case. When will there be an announcement that will clear all of this up?

[Mr Goodwill]

Certainly all those options are under review. Indeed, in Sir David Higgins’s report “HS2 Plus” he talked about the need to speed up phase 2 and get the Crewe section by 2027, not 2033, with that new integrated hub at Crewe. Connections to the east coast main line and west coast main line are important to ensure that people further north of Manchester and Leeds can benefit from HS2. Further announcements will be made in due course.

Oral Answers to Questions

David Mowat Excerpts

Thursday 23rd October 2014 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

I am sure copies will be placed subsequently in the Library, preferably signed by the right hon. Gentleman.

[David Mowat (Warrington South) (Con)]

T3. The local growth deal recently announced a much needed new bridge over the River Mersey in Warrington. I thank the Minister for his support on that but ask that he continue to support the need for a second bridge over both the Mersey and the ship canal, which is a strategic priority for the local enterprise partnership. This will make a much needed difference to the town.

[The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Transport (Mr Robert Goodwill)]

Local growth deals across the country have been a great success in supporting local priorities. A second crossing in Warrington falls firmly into the category of a local priority, and the purpose of the local growth fund is to reflect those strongly.

High Speed 2 (Warrington)

David Mowat Excerpts

Tuesday 2nd September 2014 Westminster Hall

[Mr Philip Hollobone (in the Chair)]

The Minister has brought the plane into the terminal bang on time. We now switch from planes to trains, because we have an important debate on the effect on Warrington of the proposed route of High Speed 2, in the name of David Mowat. Will all of those who are not staying for this debate please leave the room quickly and quietly so that the train can leave the platform on time?

[David Mowat (Warrington South) (Con)]

It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship for this important debate, Mr Hollobone—it is also a relief not to have to follow the French accent of the Under-Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills, my hon. Friend the Member for Mid Norfolk (George Freeman).

I have been a Member of Parliament for four and a half years and, in that time, I have spoken in about five debates on HS2. In each of them I have been consistent in my support for the project. I have said at various times that the project should go ahead not because of what happens in other countries, but because there is a business case: the economic and strategic benefits are there and the cash flow exists. Moreover, we are doing what we can to redress the failure of successive Governments to invest adequately in infrastructure in the north of England, as opposed to the south-east.

While I reiterate my support for the project as a whole, I will talk about one aspect that affects Warrington, colloquially known as the Wigan spur: 40 km of line that, as far as I can understand, has no purpose and no business benefit and represents an opportunity for the HS2 project to save £1 billion without affecting the benefits. I see that my hon. Friend the Member for Altrincham and Sale West (Mr Brady) has joined us on that point.

For clarity, Mr Hollobone, this debate was called for jointly by the hon. Member for Warrington North (Helen Jones) and me. Therefore, with your indulgence, I will speak for 10 minutes, she will speak for 10 minutes —the Minister, generously, has agreed that that works for him.

The benefit-cost ratio of HS2 is something like 2.3:1, which is driven by capacity constraints. Indeed, my view—the Minister might be pleased to hear this—is that that is a conservative estimate, because that is based on demand growth increases of 2.2% between now and 2036 and then no increase after that. If we make any kind of assumptions about growth requirements after 2036, the BCR will be massively greater—I think it would be £4 of return for every £1 spent.

As we turn to the impact on Warrington, I have no quarrel with the fact that Warrington Bank Quay is not a primary station on the line. Not every station can be primary and Warrington is situated pretty close to Manchester airport as well as to Manchester. When talking about this project Lord Adonis has said that

“while everyone wants the stations, no-one wants the line.”—[Official Report, House of Lords, 19 November 2013; Vol. 749, c. 909.]

and that is true. I am not here as a nimby and nor is the hon. Member for Warrington North. If there was a purpose in the line scything through our constituencies—her constituency in particular—we could have a more balanced discussion. However, try as I might, I cannot find the benefit of that spur to Warrington or anywhere else in the country.

Warrington Bank Quay is an important station. In terms of the north-west, Warrington is not Leeds, Manchester, Liverpool or Sheffield, but we are a sizeable town and we punch above our weight in economic clout. The Centre for Cities report placed Warrington in the top four in the UK on a range of metrics and economic impacts. We were third for employment and fifth for the ratio of private sector to public sector jobs—we have a very small public sector. There are pockets of deprivation but, by and large, Warrington is a prosperous place. It is important that that prosperity continues and that HS2 contributes to that. I believe that it will.

The 50,000 extra jobs predicted to be created in the north-west will have an impact on Warrington. I have read the regional business analysis that estimates some £100 million of benefits a year for the town. My issue is that none of that comes from the line being built north of Manchester.

The line will be about 40 km long and a massive engineering endeavour at a cost of about £1 billion. It will cross the M62; the Manchester ship canal, with a viaduct about 30 metres high; the M56 twice; the East Lancs road; the Warrington Central line; and the Mersey. A young engineer with an infinite budget and a computer-aided design system must have spent a great deal of time designing it, because the challenges were tremendous. What the line does not appear to have, however, is any business benefit.

In terms of the effect on my constituency, admittedly only 1,000 metres of the line will go through my patch and, in the 200 or 300 metres either side of it, probably only seven or eight buildings will be affected. That is not to say that those affected are not badly affected—Gareth and Steph Buckley, Malcolm and Margot Pritchard, George and Clare Worth and Thomas and Maureen Uttley are all massively blighted by this—but the hon. Member for Warrington North will talk in more detail about the impact on her constituency and constituents, which is more significant.

What is that impact for? I thought that the line must be the first bit of phase 3, to get to Scotland, but then people said, “No, it has not been decided yet whether phase 3 will go north along the west coast or the east coast.” Indeed, it seems that there are arguments for phase 3 going up the east coast, so it is not apparently a precursor for phase 3.

What about the speed advantages? I have been advised in written answers that the speed advantage of this line means that the three trains an hour coming down from Carlisle and Preston—and Glasgow, I guess—will get to their destination 13 minutes faster as a consequence of scything through Warrington. Again, that cannot be rational, because we are now agreed that we have moved away from a business case based on speed to one on capacity, but capacity will not be increased.

What I accept the line does provide is a depot in a place called Golborne in Wigan. For a long time I thought that the people of Wigan were determined to have that depot in Golborne and had lobbied very hard to get this—what appears to me irrational—huge piece of engineering, at a cost of £1 billion. I am informed, though, that the right hon. Member for Leigh (Andy Burnham), is adamant in his opposition to it, as are many of his colleagues in that area, so that cannot be the reason.

I hope that the Minister can shed some light on why this is being done. To reiterate, I have read carefully the economic case and the strategic case that show no benefits pertaining to this line. The benefits all come from productivity and the agglomeration benefits of Leeds, Manchester, Liverpool and Sheffield all being better connected to themselves and Birmingham and the capital. The regional case does not provide anything either.

I accept that we need a depot somewhere, but I cannot conceive that we need to spend £1 billion and put so many people through so much hardship in order to have a depot at this site in Wigan. I cannot conceive that there is not another place to put the depot that would not go through my constituency and those of my hon. Friend the Member for Altrincham and Sale West and the hon. Member for Warrington North in the manner proposed. Unfortunately, when something such as this happens on my patch, it brings into question the value of engineering, design clarity and other parts of the project that I do not know about. It may well be that the line was designed before Crewe station was upgraded and that, therefore, the necessity for it has diminished.

I accept—I should have said this earlier—that the final position on the route is still out for consultation and the debate is timely for that reason. I accept that the Government have not made a final decision on the matter, which is why the hon. Member for Warrington North and I—and other colleagues—are so keen for this to be done.

Perhaps the Minister could respond by just confirming that there is no decision that the line to Scotland will necessarily go north out of Warrington when the time comes for phase 3, which could, in any event, be in 50 or 60 years, and that is not the case that we are having to spend £1 billion to situate a depot. Perhaps he could also quantify the benefits, if he is able to, in terms of revenue and other benefits that were mentioned to me in a written answer, which implied that £1 billion worth of benefits would accrue.

In summary, this is a good news debate, because I believe that I have found a way of saving the Government £1 billion. We will come in with an under-run on HS2 and we will all be heroes, and my colleague and I can go back to Warrington happy.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Goodwill]

Certainly the intention is to have comparable or better services following HS2, but given that we are in the middle of the consultation, things may well start to gel a little more before the end of the year.

When phase 2 opens, it will be possible to travel more quickly—by 30 minutes—between London and Warrington; and from 2036, three years after phase 2 opens, the transport user benefits to the region of trips starting in the north-west will be equivalent to roughly £342 million every year. HS2 Ltd’s analysis of the mainline connection at Golborne suggests that it could provide benefits in the order of £1.2 billion and revenue of about £600 million. Also, HS2 will free up space for additional commuter, regional and freight services on our main north-south lines, including the west coast main line. Passengers and businesses in Warrington will be well placed to take advantage of those benefits.

I know that my hon. Friend is concerned about the impact on local and regional services from Warrington and the potential loss of direct services to London. Under the train service specification that we have published for HS2, there will be one train an hour between London and Warrington. The TSS is not a train service proposal as such, but has merely been adopted for demand-modelling purposes as part of the economic case for HS2.

The train service pattern across the rail network that will operate from the launch of high-speed services in 2026 will be developed iteratively over the next decade and beyond, in consultation with key stakeholders. It is too early to make detailed commitments about how the rail network will operate when HS2 services start, but one of the key aims for future service patterns is that all towns or cities that currently have a direct service to London will retain broadly comparable or better services once HS2 is completed.

Regarding the loss of Taylor business park and the damaging economic impact of HS2, I note what my hon. Friend and the hon. Lady have said about the potential effect on that business park. We are mindful of the impacts that HS2 could have on businesses, and HS2 Ltd will work with local stakeholders to ensure that unwanted impacts are kept to a minimum, including through potential route refinements where required. We have received many representations about the impact of our proposals on the Taylor business park and are considering them carefully alongside other consultation responses.

Our consultation is a genuine attempt to learn more about the proposed route’s likely impacts and benefits, and there is potential for it to change as a result of the consultation. Indeed, this afternoon’s debate is an important part of the dialogue that is taking place between Ministers and HS2 on one side and local representatives and residents on the other. I hope that we can bridge that divide. My goal is to have everyone on the same side if possible.

From the point at which a confirmed route was announced, we began a detailed assessment of its impact and we will seek to mitigate the most adverse impacts, including visual intrusion and noise, through our design work. In doing so, we will keep local community representatives informed of our plans and seek their input on how to achieve the best outcomes for local people. It is worth remembering that in order to obtain the powers needed to build the railway, via a further hybrid Bill, we will need to demonstrate that we have done all that we reasonably could to understand and manage its impacts.

My hon. Friend mentioned Scotland. He is absolutely right. No decisions have been taken yet on whether there will be a high-speed link to Scotland. A bilateral working group with the Scottish Government is working to consider options for improving rail links to Scotland. The results will be announced in due course. I think that my right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer put his oar in as well, with a suggestion that HS3 might be an east-west link connecting Yorkshire to Lancashire. I can understand why people might want to travel from Lancashire to Yorkshire but possibly not in the opposite direction.

[David Mowat]

Given that the decision has not been taken, as the Minister has just confirmed, about how we will get to Scotland eventually, will he accept that to build £1 billion-worth of line north of Manchester on the west coast risks it being obsolete if the decision is taken to go up from the east coast?

[Mr Goodwill]

My hon. Friend makes a very valid point indeed, and certainly that is one of the points that we are taking into consideration.

In terms of the additional station at Crewe or Warrington Bank Quay, the consultation exercise was designed to bring in a range of ideas, and I welcome the responses that we have received, including those from the hon. Members who have spoken today. I can confirm that we are carefully considering the response from my hon. Friend the Member for Warrington South alongside those from other consultees. He will be aware that Sir David Higgins, the chairman of HS2 Ltd, has recommended that to deliver benefits to the north more quickly, we could accelerate the building of the line to Crewe before the rest of phase 2 and build a new station to receive HS2 services from 2027. We can see potential benefits from doing that, but to allow us to consider it fully, the Secretary of State has asked HS2 Ltd to undertake more detailed work, so that we can consider the suggestion very carefully, as part of the response that he will make to the phase 2 consultation later this year.

In conclusion, we and HS2 Ltd are working hard to implement a scheme that will not only bring the widest possible benefits to the country, but help to bring all those who would be affected together. HS2 Ltd has been taking forward an extensive engagement programme in Warrington involving local councillors, action groups and other stakeholders in the area. That includes briefing sessions for elected members at Warrington town hall. I understand that my hon. Friend attended the last of those sessions in June. Was the hon. Lady there as well?

Oral Answers to Questions

David Mowat Excerpts

Thursday 10th July 2014 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

I call Jack Dromey. Not here.

[David Mowat (Warrington South) (Con)]

8. What the estimated cost-benefit ratio is for the High Speed 2 Wigan spur.

[The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Transport (Stephen Hammond)]

The Department has not estimated the case for the western leg of the Y-shaped route for High Speed 2 without the Wigan spur. However, preliminary analysis undertaken by HS2 Ltd suggested that this section of the line is likely to provide benefits in the order of £1.2 billion, revenue of about £600 million, and is likely to offer very high value for money.

[David Mowat]

I have been, and remain, a strong supporter of HS2 because I believe in the transformational benefits that will occur. However, none of these transformational benefits occurs because of the line north of Manchester—it is not in the published business or in the published economic case—and the cost of this line is the better part of £1 billion, including allocated contingencies. Will the Minister confirm that he will look hard at this issue during the current consultation?

[Stephen Hammond]

I welcome my hon. Friend’s support for High Speed 2, and I welcome the opportunity to lay on the line yet again that the mischievous remarks of the hon. Member for Huddersfield (Mr Sheerman), suggesting a figure of £80 billion, are completely false. I will, of course, look through the consultation, but I am sure my hon. Friend will recognise that having the Wigan spur will ensure that we can deliver some of the benefits to the west coast main line, which is why the Government believe at this stage that it offers high value for money.