Scotland Bill

Eilidh Whiteford Excerpts

Tuesday 21st June 2011 Commons Chamber

[Mr Gauke]

I understand the views expressed by my hon. Friend. There are a number of changes and developments in this area, not least the powers in the Bill. I agree with him that this will continue to be a live issue, but at this stage I am not in a position to make any promises to him. However, I am sure that this issue will continue to be debated, and strong views will be expressed. I can understand the points he makes, but this is not the time for a legislative solution.

Amendment 23, tabled by the right hon. Member for Birkenhead, is consequential on new clause 8 and would delay the financial provisions in part 3 of the Bill coming into force until two months after the House passes a resolution approving the Chancellor’s proposals for a new funding formula. It would then automatically bring part 3 into force two months after such a resolution. I set out why I did not consider it appropriate to debate at this time a new funding formula for Scotland when I discussed new clause 8. The Government are clear that this is a UK-wide administrative procedure and therefore has no place in the Bill. The Government’s priority is to stabilise the public finances and reduce the deficit before making any changes to the Barnett formula, as I have said.

Even were we able to accept new clause 8, the manner of commencement set out would be problematic because it would create technical problems by potentially bringing in consequential amendments relating to the Scottish variable rate before that itself had been repealed. I am sure that that is not what the right hon. Gentleman intends. The new clause would have other consequences, however. It would mean that clause 32, on borrowing provisions, could not be brought into force until an agreement had been reached on a new funding formula for Scotland. As I have set out, the changes introduced by the Bill are not contingent on a new funding formula being agreed to replace the Barnett formula, so I do not see the need to wait to introduce the borrowing clauses until such a new formula has been agreed.

Amendments 25 and 37, and new clauses 9 and 19, relate to corporation tax and alcohol duties. These amendments propose to increase the power in the Bill to provide for an Order in Council specifying corporation tax and alcohol duties as devolved duties. The Scottish Government have publicly requested that six additional powers be included in the Bill, including powers over corporation tax and alcohol duties. I understand that the First Minister has met colleagues in the Government to highlight those requests. In those meetings, the First Minister agreed to provide detailed written analysis of the benefits to both Scotland and the UK of devolving those powers. No such papers have yet been provided. We await them with interest, because we have yet to hear the case made in detail.

As hon. Members will recall, the Government are committed to implementing the recommendations of the Calman commission, which considered the merits of devolution for a wide range of taxes and decided that neither corporation tax nor alcohol duties were suitable candidates for devolution. Calman concluded that the potential administrative impact of devolving either tax would be significant. The creation of compliance costs for businesses operating on either side of the border, as well as the increased collection costs for the Government, would be undesirable, especially in the present economic climate. The risks of tax avoidance and arbitrage could also be increased, with additional costs to the Government and the UK Exchequer. These arguments apply to both corporation tax and alcohol duties.

Calman also noted that if comparable levels of public services were to be maintained, the scope for substantive reductions in the rate of corporation tax in Scotland would be limited, unless the Scottish Government were willing significantly to increase revenues from other sources, such as income tax. The figures involved could be significant. For instance, if we take the Scottish Government’s estimate of the corporation tax base, published in their “Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland” report, and apply the methodologies developed for the Government’s paper on rebalancing the Northern Ireland economy, the cost of reducing Scottish corporation tax to 12.5%—the current rate in the Republic of Ireland—would be just over £2 billion. However, the Scottish economy is very different, not least in the presence of many large multinationals, particularly from the financial sector, whose current activity is unlikely to be adequately covered in the gross value added estimate, but whose profits are additionally likely to be attributable to Scotland with regard to corporation tax.

Provisional HMRC analysis has indicated that losing payments from large Scottish-domiciled groups could add £600 million to the direct costs. Such tax cuts would have to be funded, either by significantly reduced levels of public spending in Scotland or by tax rises in other areas. It is worth noting that these are initial estimates, and are likely significantly to underestimate the scope for profit shifting to Scotland. The model uses similar assumptions to those applied to the costing for Northern Ireland. However, given the geographic proximity of England and Scotland, the integrated infrastructure, the large number of big GB-owned groups with a substantive presence on both sides of the border, and the relatively large and complex nature of the Scottish economy, there are likely to be greater opportunities for groups to shift profits there than may be the case for Northern Ireland.

In addition, corporation tax is a very volatile tax, and would create much more revenue risk for the Scottish budget. For instance, corporate tax receipts fell by 16% from 2008-09 to 2009-10, while income tax receipts fell by 5%. Such a large volatile income stream would place great risk on the Scottish budget. Income tax, which is more predictable and less volatile, is a much more suitable candidate for devolution. The commission based its decision on the strong evidence that it received from the independent expert group and the alcohol retailing and production sector. The evidence identified increased compliance costs and significant scope for tax avoidance, given the mobility of goods such as beer, wine, cider and spirits.

[Dr Eilidh Whiteford (Banff and Buchan) (SNP)]

My recollection is that the Calman commission refused to rule out devolving corporation tax, should that happen in other parts of the UK. Perhaps my recollection is wrong, but it would be a mistake to misrepresent in this debate what the Calman commission actually said.

[Mr Gauke]

The Calman commission did not recommend devolving corporation tax as substantial practical profit shifting issues would arise, and we cannot ignore the fact that it would need to be paid for. This is not something that we could all sit round in a room negotiating, before coming up with a number. To comply with the Azores judgment, made under European law, it would be necessary to identify the precise number. I should also make it clear that the cost of any reduction in corporation tax would have to be met by increased alternative taxes or a reduction in the block grant.

[Dr Whiteford]

It is important to differentiate the substantive point of whether this Government support devolving corporation tax from what the Calman commission report actually said. Having found it—I think—I can tell the Minister that the Calman commission recognised that

“changes to Corporation Tax can be a tool for economic development,”

and did not

“rule out a scheme for devolving Corporation Tax in the future as part of wider reform across the devolved nations.”

Does the Minister accept that that is actually what was in the Calman commission report?

[Mr Gauke]

But the Calman commission did not say that that was the right way forward at this point. As I have said, some very substantial issues would need to be addressed, not least the opportunity for profit shifting and the impact on the UK Exchequer were Scotland to have a lower rate of corporation tax, as businesses operating in Scotland and England would shift their profits to Scotland, which would disadvantage the UK as a whole.

--- Later in debate ---

[Ann McKechin]

My hon. Friend raises an interesting point about the issues that the Scottish Government have decided not to speak about. They did not come down here to speak to Ministers about the cuts in the welfare reform that will impact particularly heavily on women. They did not come down here to talk about the crisis in our care homes as a result of the imminent collapse of Southern Cross, which affects elderly people and their families right across the country. They did not come down to talk about the increase in the pension age, which will impact on women in particular. My hon. Friend is right that when it comes to issues that affect tens of thousands of people and women in particular, who make up the majority of the Scottish population, the SNP is sadly silent.

[Dr Whiteford]

The last time I looked, welfare reform and pensions were matters reserved to this House. I certainly contributed to the debates on those matters in this House, and the last time I looked I was a woman. It is sad that when we discussed the uprating proposals in the Pensions Bill, most Labour Members, with a few honourable exceptions, sat on their hands. It was left to just a few of us on the Opposition Benches to oppose the increases proposed by the Government.

[Ann McKechin]

I do not discredit the hon. Lady for making strong statements in this Chamber. However, I find it extraordinary that the First Minister, who feels that he can speak about any issue that impacts on Scotland and who has more powers, does not take the opportunity to speak about the issues that matter to ordinary people in Scotland every day of the week.

I will return to the Bill, as I am sure you would wish, Madam Deputy Speaker.

--- Later in debate ---

[Ann McKechin]

I can understand my hon. Friend’s frustration. It is disappointing that the SNP has not taken the opportunity this evening to provide an explanation and analysis of why they think the change would be helpful.

[Dr Whiteford]

Will the hon. Lady give way?

[Ann McKechin]

I would like to continue this point.

Does the SNP believe that a further tax cut for banks, which pay the majority of corporation tax in Scotland, is a progressive policy? Does it believe that there should be a shift from corporation tax to personal income taxation, as has been the case in Switzerland, for example?

[Ann McKechin]

Actually, there has been very little increase in growth in Switzerland. There is no direct correlation, and the evidence is weak.

As I have said previously, and as a report that came out this week clearly indicated, many different levers of economic growth are already in the hands of the Scottish Government, but they have either chosen not to use them at all, or when they have chosen to use them it has had a detrimental effect as well as sometimes having advantages.

[Dr Whiteford]

rose—

[Ann McKechin]

The Scottish Government have to make those choices, and like my hon. Friend the Member for East Lothian (Fiona O'Donnell), I would like to get on with the businesses of discussing how they are going to use their powers, what they intend to do with them and how they will benefit people. Instead, the SNP has obsessed over process for an indeterminate period. [Interruption.]

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Davidson]

If my hon. Friend is saying that the sucking of powers into Edinburgh has not benefited Edinburgh, things are even worse than I thought, and I will certainly take that into account in future.

The Committee dealt in detail with corporation tax, and we also welcomed the Scottish Parliament Committee’s points on the subject. Professor Muscatelli summarised the main reason why, on balance, we came down against the devolution of corporation tax, saying:

“tax competition was the main reason why our group recommended that corporation tax should not be devolved.”

He made the point that it was very likely that a reduction in corporation tax in one UK jurisdiction would result in the cannibalisation of tax from other parts of the UK.

[Dr Whiteford]

The hon. Gentleman and I sat through some very long evidence sessions with any number of erudite professors of economics, none of whom seemed to agree with each other, but who nevertheless managed to find agreement on some pretty simple principles in respect of corporation tax, one of which was that if we lower it too far we will harm revenue, and if we raise it too high we will harm growth. Those very learned people disagreed because there are so many contingencies and uncertainties at any given point in time, and because the interlinking of the economies of various parts of not just the UK, but the European Union and beyond nowadays, makes it very difficult to pin matters down with any certainty, and therefore they become highly theoretical. Does the hon. Gentleman agree that—

[Mr Speaker]

Order. That is a very long intervention, but I feel sure that the hon. Lady is nearing her final sentence.

[Dr Whiteford]

Does the hon. Gentleman agree that the way to secure the Scottish economy is to create jobs?

[Mr Davidson]

Well, that is a hard one, isn’t it! Yes, clearly the way to improve the Scottish economy is to create jobs, and as far as I am aware not even the Conservatives are against that. The arguments to which the hon. Lady refers were so complex that it seemed at some points that even Hughes and Hallett were disagreeing. [Laughter.]

We did reach conclusions, however. I think everyone agreed that there were risks in devolving corporation tax, and, as we said,

“not least in that this could lead to competition which could result in the ‘cannibalisation’ of the UK’s tax base.”

There was a political difference there, because we went on to say:

“We recognise that this is not necessarily a concern for those who wish to consider the financial position of Scotland in isolation.”

I understand why a nationalist would not be concerned about the cannibalisation of UK taxes if there were a minor gain to Scotland, but for those of us who take a wider perspective across the whole of the UK, that is a valid point to take into account.

It is generally agreed that a reduction in corporation tax in Scotland would result in some drawing in of business from the rest of the UK; I have heard no serious opinion suggesting anything else. If we accept that, we can do no other than recognise that that is not likely to improve relations between the jurisdictions, and as we would hope that in the event of an independent, or further devolved, Scotland there would be an ongoing relationship, beggar-my-neighbour politics on corporation tax is not helpful. The risk of driving that divide between England and Scotland by achieving a marginal gain in corporation tax revenue in the short term is not worth the candle.