Asked by: Frank Dobson (Labour - Holborn and St Pancras)
Question to the Department for Transport:
To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, what forecast his Department has made of the number of passengers who will use High Speed 2 in (a) the year after the opening of Phase 1, (b) the year after the opening of Phase 2 and (c) the last year of the planning period; and how many passengers in each such period his Department forecasts will use (i) Euston and (ii) Old Oak Common station to board or leave the train.
Answered by Lord McLoughlin
The number of passengers forecast to be travelling on HS2 per day in 2026/27 once Phase One is open is 112,731. The number of passengers forecast to be travelling on HS2 after the opening of Phase Two in 2036 is 302,350. Based on modelling for the economic case for HS2 (October 2013) the forecast number of passengers using Euston to board and leave HS2 services in Phase One is 71,445, and Old Oak Common is 38,040. The forecast number of passengers from the economic case modelling using Euston to board and leave HS2 service in 2036 (3 years after Phase Two has opened) is 158,258. The equivalent number for Old Oak Common is 84,428. Forecasts for other years are not available as the forecasting tools only provide information for two years, the opening year of Phase One (2026) and the year in which the demand cap is reached (2036).
Asked by: Frank Dobson (Labour - Holborn and St Pancras)
Question to the Department for Transport:
To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, what formula his Department used to calculate the likely distribution of use between Euston and Old Oak Common of passengers from each London transport zone; and how his Department determined the inputs for that formula.
Answered by Lord McLoughlin
The distribution of passengers between Euston and Old Oak Common is forecast using the PLANET framework model. This model takes into account the time taken to access stations from passengers’ start locations, the possible route options from starting stations to destination stations, the time to get to final destinations and the level of crowding on trains. Based on this information, the model predicts passengers’ choices on the best starting locations for their journeys. In turn this drives the distribution of passengers between any station options in any area, in this case Euston and Old Oak Common. Full details of the PLANET framework model and how it works can be found on our website at:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/planet-framework-model-pfm-v43-model-description.
Asked by: Frank Dobson (Labour - Holborn and St Pancras)
Question to the Department for Transport:
To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, if he will place in the Library a map showing the assumed origin and destination overground, underground or mainline station in London used to predict the passenger use of Euston and Old Oak Common.
Answered by Lord McLoughlin
A map with the details requested has not been produced from the economic case modelling work undertaken.
However, section 6b of the HS2 Phase One Environmental Statement Volume 5 Transport Assessment demonstrates the change in passenger flows at Network Rail and London Underground stations across London for the AM and PM peak periods. The document can be viewed here:
Asked by: Frank Dobson (Labour - Holborn and St Pancras)
Question to the Department for Transport:
To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, what (a) surveys, (b) modelling or (c) other methods his Department used to calculate the distribution across London transport zones of High Speed 2 passengers; and whether figures used for such calculations were of mainline or other passengers.
Answered by Lord McLoughlin
The distribution of existing rail demand across the Greater London area has two steps. The first step spreads the demand across London into 7 high level zones in the PLANET framework model on the basis of National Rail Travel Survey (NRTS) data and ticket sales data. The second step to disaggregate the demand from these high level zones into 1211 smaller zones uses demand distributions from Transport for London’s detailed RAILPLAN model.