European Union (Approval of Treaty Amendment Decision) Bill [Lords]
Debate between John Baron and Neil Carmichael(11 years, 7 months ago)
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Mr Baron
That is up to the Greek people. Unlike many initiatives relating to the eurozone crisis, one is not trying to replace the democracy that exists in Greece, although if we look at what has happened in Italy and, it could be argued, to a certain extent in Greece, we see that it is very much the bureaucrats who are in charge. However, ultimately Greece will have to make a decision; it cannot have it both ways. We have seen the high social cost of Greece remaining a member of the euro, and it is very saddening, with the suicide rate going through the roof and the economy collapsing. Perhaps someone needs to explain to Greece that a course of devaluation would do its economy a power of good.
Neil Carmichael (Stroud) (Con)
I want to develop that point, because it seems to me that Greece has effectively decided to stay in the euro—the Government are committed to that—so exactly what business do we have trying to tell the Greeks how to run their economy, especially since we are not in the euro?
Mr Baron
One is not trying to tell them how to run their economy at all. I am afraid that my hon. Friend was obviously not listening. What one is suggesting is that the experience of past cases illustrates the merits of devaluation. Since the second world war there have been about 40 occasions when currency blocs have broken up, and in the vast majority of cases—I struggle to think of an exception—the countries that left currency blocs benefited. Their growth rates picked up because they became more competitive, their currencies devalued and, most importantly, their peoples benefited. If my hon. Friend can think of one exception to that general rule, I would be delighted to hear it, because I cannot think of one. In summary, I believe—
Neil Carmichael
I was casting my mind back to 1967, when the Labour Government devalued the currency, but can see no evidence at all that the decision brought about any improvement. In fact, it was followed by the creation of the Department of Employment and Productivity, and by 1970 that was an unmitigated disaster.
Eurozone Crisis
Debate between John Baron and Neil Carmichael(12 years, 5 months ago)
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Mr Baron
My hon. Friend nearly stole one of the lines I was about to come out with. Fundamentally, I agree with him. The problem is caused by excessive debt: that is what makes this recession different from previous ones, yet the solution the eurozone leaders have come up with is to pile on more debt. That is not the solution. All it is doing is reinforcing failure and failed policies.
There are further reasons why this policy will not work. I cannot think of a monetary union in the economic history of this planet that has succeeded without fiscal union also being in place. Again, I call on the Minister to intervene if he can correct me. To pursue monetary union without fiscal union is a doomed policy. Can the Minister come up with one example of successful monetary union in a country where fiscal union has not also been present? As I say, I would welcome his intervention, but I doubt that he will have such an example.
As my hon. Friend the Member for Clacton (Mr Carswell) has suggested, another reason why this policy will fail is that it fundamentally ignores the importance of devaluation to recovering economies. Usually, there are three elements in an IMF package: reduced spending, increased revenue and the ability to allow the currency to devalue. That last bit is important because a currency that devalues helps to take the strain off the economy. If an economy is deemed to be, say, 25% uncompetitive compared with its neighbours, allowing its currency to depreciate to about the same extent will go a long way towards taking the strain. If we cut off that option, that 25% gain in competitiveness can really be brought about only by cuts to public services, salaries and pension funds. That is simply not an option, and for that reason it makes those austerity packages so much worse.
To my knowledge, the IMF has never lent to a country or put in place a programme in a country that cannot devalue, which is why the Government line that only three of the 53 IMF packages go to the eurozone is disingenuous. Can the Minister name one country, one package in those 50, where devaluation is not an option? That is the fundamental difference. In the three packages in the eurozone, devaluation is off the table, which will make the austerity packages worse.
Having asked the Minister several questions, I was hoping that a number of notes would have been passed to him so that we could get some answers. I am sure he has pre-empted my questions and has the answers in his brief. Again, I would welcome him intervening to name one of those packages outside the eurozone in which devaluation is not an option. They do not exist. Devaluation is terribly important when it comes to an IMF package, but we are not allowing that option in the eurozone. That is another reason why these IMF packages will fail.
Neil Carmichael (Stroud) (Con)
When the IMF intervened in our economy in 1976, when Denis Healey was fighting to save the pound, that intervention arrested the devaluation of the pound.
Mr Baron
I agree to a certain extent, but my hon. Friend cannot deny that we had the ability to devalue. The currency markets could take the strain and, to a certain extent, they did. If we look at the strength of the pound since the second world war, we see that it has been a sorry tale of devaluation. Had that devaluation not taken place and had we been locked into a system that did not allow devaluation, my goodness me, the austerity packages introduced to compensate for that lack of competitiveness would have been very severe indeed.
Neil Carmichael
If my hon. Friend thinks that the devaluations of 1949 and 1967 in this country led to a period of improved productivity and competitiveness, I would dispute that. I want to pursue that argument, because that is what I think is important.
Mr Baron
My hon. Friend is being generous in giving way. Devaluation is not necessarily the best thing going, but it helps to take the strain for a currency that is weakening and therefore allows austerity measures to be perhaps less harsh than they would otherwise be. That is the point. There is no economic evidence to suggest that, if we did not allow devaluation to take effect, austerity packages would be worse and make the economic downturn much worse.
Neil Carmichael
I can certainly understand my hon. Friend’s argument, but it is worth pointing out that devaluation is not a panacea and should not be used frequently.