Finance (No. 2) Bill

Debate between Kelvin Hopkins and Mark Simmonds

Monday 11th October 2010 Commons Chamber

[Mark Simmonds]

The hon. Lady makes a fair point, and I should say two or three things. First, the national insurance changes that the coalition Government have made will make it better and easier for employers to take on new employees in the private sector. Secondly, the Treasury is working on the regional fund to address the difficulties that are faced in some regions, which, I would argue, are over-dependent on public sector jobs, so that people can move into the private sector quicker than would otherwise be the case.

The second element of the expansionary fiscal contraction is to encourage business to invest, and I do not agree with the fundamental argument of the shadow Treasury spokesperson. There is a direct inverse correlation between Government borrowing and business investment, which means that when Government borrowing declines business investment goes up, and vice versa. That would be especially true if it were supported by expansionary monetary policy, which it is and, I hope, will be for the foreseeable future.

Opposition Members may say, “That all sounds very well theoretically, but has it ever happened in practice?” The simple answer is, yes. It has happened twice in recent times—not only in the early 1980s, when the then Chancellor of the Exchequer, Geoffrey Howe, reduced public expenditure and interest rates and, therefore, stimulated economic growth, but—

[Kelvin Hopkins]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Mark Simmonds]

In a minute, because the hon. Gentleman might be keen to comment on this point. The correlation also occurred under the previous Labour Government, between 1997 and 1999, when they stuck to the preceding Conservative Government’s expenditure plans. That is when GDP growth under the previous Administration was at its highest, averaging roughly 3.5% per year—significantly higher than during the rest of their tenure. So, the correlation has occurred before, and I see no reason why it should not occur again.

[Kelvin Hopkins]

I hesitate to say this, but I was around in 1979, and I remember it very well. The Government at that time massively increased VAT and increased interest rates. The pound rose, and neo-classical economists, like the hon. Gentleman no doubt, said that unemployment would fall to below 1 million. It actually rose to more than 3 million, and one fifth of manufacturing disappeared. It was only when the Government later reversed those policies that the economy started to expand, but sterling depreciated by 30%, during Nigel Lawson’s tenure, when the economy started to grow again.

[Mark Simmonds]

I am grateful for that intervention. The hon. Gentleman will not be surprised to hear that I do not share his analysis. In fact, the parallels are interesting. I would argue that in the early 1980s Geoffrey Howe and Margaret Thatcher were clearing up the mess that they inherited from the previous Labour Administration, just as the Chancellor of the Exchequer and Liberal Democrat colleagues in the coalition are tidying up the mess that we inherited from the right hon. Member for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (Mr Brown) and Tony Blair, his predecessor.