Sustainable Aviation Fuel Bill (First sitting)

Lewis Atkinson Excerpts

Committee stage
Tuesday 15th July 2025 Public Bill Committees

[Mr Kohler]

Q To your point on the RCM, the money you put into the RCM will bring down your overall costs, because the premium on SAF will go down, will it not?

Jonathon Counsell: Absolutely—we hope that eventually, as you scale up SAF supply, the cost will come down. Will it ever come down to jet fuel levels? I do not think it will, because of the factor cost element. I agree with Paul Greenwood, who said earlier that one of the disadvantages we have in this country is high energy costs. We are doing SAF contracts with SAF suppliers in the US, where their energy costs are one third of those in this country, so we are at a disadvantage.

On 2G SAF, however, I think we have some real advantages: we have some sites, we have expertise and we have feedstock, both waste biomass and municipal solid waste. We put 20 million tonnes of municipal solid waste into landfill; we even ship 5 million tonnes of it to Europe. That is energy. We should be using it to make SAF. Those advantages can overcome the energy disadvantage in the short term. Hopefully we will sort out that energy disadvantage, but as we scale up those plants that SAF price should come down. It is an investment, but we do not want to double-pay for it.

Luke Ervine: Just to add and clarify, I think Luke Taylor asked a question earlier about ways to pay for the SAF mandate. We have always been very clear about paying twice through things such as the ETS scheme. We would love to see those revenues used to reinvest in the decarbonisation of the aviation industry. Given the economic value it returns and the Government’s growth agenda, we believe that creating a SAF industry also creates jobs and a lot of economic prosperity. The Sustainable Aviation report in 2023 estimated that the UK SAF industry would create about 60,000 new jobs by 2050 and about £10 billion gross value added by the same time. There is a benefit here for the UK economy as a whole purely in terms of the SAF industry, and using some of the taxes we currently pay to fund the RCM would be very helpful.

Lahiru Ranasinghe: I do not have much to add to what has already been said, but the cost of SAF means that the cost of fuel will go up in the long run, even with the RCM. In our minds, the RCM is something that unlocks production, as opposed to something that brings the cost down. The primary role we see for it is in getting production up so that supply can meet demand in the short run. Ultimately, though, we will have higher costs because of SAF, especially as eSAF and power-to-liquid comes in, and those costs will have to be passed through.

We are doing a huge amount to try to be as efficient as we possibly can; that is where the investments in aircraft and how we operate come in. As they say, the best energy is the energy you do not use, and in that way we are trying to manage our costs in the same way we have for the past 30 years, but I completely agree that we have to be wary of adding on to the costs we are already paying in the name of sustainability, both right now and in terms of meeting the mandates.

[Lewis Atkinson (Sunderland Central) (Lab)]

Q Building on the point Mr Ervine made about the potential wider economic contribution of SAF, I am particularly interested in the jobs. We have heard that 70% of existing fuel is imported, and therefore a significant part of your economic supply chain is essentially providing economic benefit overseas. Could you say a little more about—if we get this off the ground, as it were—how far you think that value chain and economic benefit will shift into the UK from imports? In particular, could you talk about the potential regional economic benefits of SAF, as opposed to being concentrated on London and the south-east?

Jonathon Counsell: From our modelling and analysis, we still want to have the flexibility to import SAF, because there is a global market there and we do not want to put ourselves at a competitive disadvantage by saying that all mandated SAF has to be produced in the UK. We still want access to imported SAF, particularly 1G SAF; we do not think the UK has much competitive advantage in producing 1G SAF. We think roughly 50% feels about right, and you have to compare it around that. Our view is that, of the mandated SAF, approximately 50% should be produced here in the UK—but, as I said earlier, not all of that will need the revenue certainty mechanism.

One of the key points that I want to make is that the revenue certainty mechanism is for those plants that cannot get funding: they are early stage, first-of-their-kind technology, and cannot get tracker funding because it is perceived to be too high risk by the investment market, and they cannot get that revenue certainty through any other mechanism, so therefore they rely on this mechanism. We think that roughly half of that 50% will need the revenue certainty mechanism.

A good example is LanzaJet in Teesside, the speedboat project that I mentioned earlier. That does not need the revenue certainty mechanism because we at IAG are providing the company with a long-term committed take-or-pay offer. We are giving the revenue certainty to LanzaJet, so that project does not need it; but other projects do, typically including the municipal solid waste projects that take black bag waste. They are at a very early stage, using less mature technology, and they are massively capital intense projects. They definitely need the revenue certainty mechanism, so we must ensure that it is targeted.

As Luke said, we think that by 2030 there could potentially be 10,000 extra jobs in the UK from that UK production. We can share a piece of analysis that we did through Sustainable Aviation that showed what that looks like for each region of the UK. We think there is certainly potential to build plants in Wearside, Teesside, Humberside and south Wales; if we get the policy right, we think there could be up to 14 plants within the next 10 years, which will deliver £1.8 billion in GVA by 2030.

However, the big prize will come in 2050: 60,000 jobs and £10 billion in GVA. We are creating a new energy industry for the UK. I have to congratulate the Government: we have potentially the most powerful package of SAF policy in the world, with the mandate, the revenue certainty mechanism and the advanced fuels fund. Taken together, they mean that we are the envy of the world and we have a huge chance to be a world leader on SAF production.

Lahiru Ranasinghe: To add to that, it would also enable UK aviation to grow. Our estimates are that each aircraft based in the UK supports around 400 jobs and £27 million of GVA. We have over 150 aircraft in the UK as it is, we have three aircraft going to a new base in Newcastle shortly and we absolutely intend to continue with the growth in the UK. By having the RCM unlock SAF production and SAF supply, that opens the doors to us to continue growing, while also decarbonising. That is a massive part of the economic benefit that the RCM helps to unlock, beyond the obvious effects of supporting jobs and production on the ground in the SAF industry.

Luke Ervine: Just to add a note on benefits, it is important to recognise the cost of not having the RCM. We have spoken a lot today about the buy-out. The UK is unique in its ambition to have a 2G SAF mandate, so the cost of not having the RCM is important. If we do not have it, we pay buy-out, and then we are going to lose out regionally to other areas, such as Europe and the US, that do not have those 2G SAF mandates, so it is important that we recognise that there is a cost of not having the RCM.

[Luke Taylor]

Q Thank you all for joining us. The evidence that you have given so far has been very helpful. There was a question earlier about waste hierarchy and the availability of waste feedstocks as one source of raw fuel or raw material for some of the second-generation SAF. Is enough being done across Government, in a holistic way, to ensure that the goals of the SAF mandate, the RCM and this Bill are achieved? Is enough being done to ensure that the things that are needed—waste feedstocks, the reforms to planning and energy production for eSAFs—are in place? What is going to hold back what we are trying to achieve in this Bill, and what needs to be done elsewhere?

Jonathon Counsell: That is a really strong point. There is a key question about the waste hierarchy, which Gaynor spoke to. Currently, waste going to SAF is treated the same way as incineration or energy from waste, but the analysis is clear that we can get twice as much energy capture from producing SAF than from producing energy from waste. We feel that you are getting a lot more bang for your buck from using waste to produce SAF than from other things, which we think should be reflected in aviation being prioritised in the waste hierarchy.

On renewable energy, last year the Sustainable Aviation road map made it quite clear that 3G SAF—where you basically electrolyse water to get hydrogen and you capture CO₂ from the atmosphere—is going to take a lot of renewable electricity. We are going to need a lot more of that within the UK if we are going to support a domestic power-to-liquid market.

Luke Ervine: In addition to that, we need to think about other areas of SAF, when we talk about SAF having a nominal value associated with its ability to reduce greenhouse gases. We are working alongside the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero and the Department for Business and Trade to understand how carbon can form part of the solution, and decarbonising the SAF that we are producing is also key. We are also working side by side with the Treasury to understand what the revenues from the ETS look like.

That has been quite successful in the last few years, especially since the advent of the jet zero taskforce, which was a really key turning point. I think we are going to continue in that vein to work cross-departmentally and across industry to work through some of these finer details. I think it has been very useful to be part of the Jet Zero Council; we are actually a co-chair, alongside Mike Kane, of the jet zero taskforce. Carrying on in that vein is very important and useful.

Lahiru Ranasinghe: This also enables us to reduce our dependence on used cooking oil imported from elsewhere in the world as a feedstock for first generation SAF. A strategic move towards 2G and 3G also gives more flexibility and capability for the market to scale up in the long-term, and allows it to use waste products from the UK, as opposed to having to ship it in from China or south-east Asia.