Brexit: Appointment of Joint Committee

Lord Anderson of Ipswich Excerpts

Wednesday 3rd July 2019 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Ipswich (CB)]

My Lords, it is an honour to follow the noble Lord.

Two weeks ago, YouGov asked almost 1,700 people about the consequences of a no-deal Brexit. The answers revealed a gulf that is striking even by current standards. Of those who voted remain, 71% anticipated serious damage to the economy and only 9% did not. Among leave voters—with neat but depressing symmetry—serious damage was expected by just 10%, and not expected by 70%. Such indicators of tribal loyalty can lead fair-minded people to fatalism or despair. However, it is in just such circumstances that clear heads, reliable evidence and the power of reason are most needed.

As we approach October, which some say may be the most momentous month in our recent history—there is stiff competition—we have the chance to ensure that the constantly changing picture on no-deal Brexit is informed not just by spin, leaks and written statements but by a hard-fought parliamentary assessment, based on the interrogation of those most closely involved, that will neither exaggerate nor pull its punches. The noble Lord, Lord Howell of Guildford, referred to “yet another committee”. Well, I read with admiration the reports of our EU Committee, its sub-committees and the Exiting the EU Committee of the House of Commons. They have already convincingly covered much of the ground. However, as no deal continues its journey over the next three months, from table-top exercise to looming reality, further and more precise assessments will be needed. Here are five current developments that the proposed Joint Committee could usefully consider.

The first is the legislation gap: of six Brexit Bills that the Government said in February needed to be passed to prepare for no deal, only one has been enacted. Will we have the powers we need to regulate trade, fisheries, immigration and financial services?

Secondly, is there reality in the notion of mini-deals with the EU? This is now being put about as a managed no deal, or at least as adequate mitigation for no deal. There is, I fear, no reality in the idea that we will automatically remain members of the EEA, desirable though that may be, for the simple reason that we will meet neither of the conditions—membership of the EU or of EFTA.

The third development is the likely actions of the EU to defend its new customs and regulatory border in Ireland.

The fourth is the general state of preparedness. Was the Institute for Government right in its recent assessment that the Government are as unlikely to be ready for no deal in October as they were in March?

The fifth issue to consider is the impact on all this of recent departures from the Civil Service, including the Permanent Secretary of DExEU, Philip Rycroft, the chief of no deal, Tom Shinner, Karen Wheeler of HMRC and the chief negotiator Olly Robbins.

The economic and constitutional aspects of no deal attract most of the attention—understandably so. I hope, however, that, as the noble Lord, Lord Paddick, said, the committee will also look at the implications for our safety and security. I used to observe police officers at Dover, their hand-held devices telling them in real time via the SIS II system when incoming passengers were on continental crime and terrorism watch lists. That capability along with many others, from the exchange of DNA profiles and passenger name records to a functioning system of extradition within Europe, will simply lapse without a further deal. We will lose the advantages of a security union, which, as the Centre for European Reform reported last month, has helped the EU achieve more on security in the past two years than in the preceding decade. Perhaps that is why Assistant Commissioner Neil Basu, who leads on terrorism for the Met, has described a no-deal Brexit as “incredibly concerning” and why the National Security Adviser told the Cabinet unequivocally in a letter leaked in April that it would leave the UK “less safe”.

Some have said that it is a million to one, but the bookies were offering odds this morning of 2:1 on a no-deal Brexit in 2019. Politicians and the public need to know the facts, not as they were in the spring but as they will be in the autumn. Everyone likes a summer holiday, but no-deal preparations are being strenuously urged on others. We in Parliament should not neglect our own and that is why I shall support this Motion.