International Development (Official Development Assistance Target) Bill

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Friday 27th February 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Armstrong of Ilminster (CB)]

My Lords, it is 45 years since I walked out of the Treasury, never to return. However, that was after 20 years there, and once a Treasury man, always a Treasury man. For that reason, and for many others, I support the amendment in the name of the noble Lord, Lord Butler. Like him, I have no difficulty with the commitment to make the target 0.7%. We do not need legislation to do that. The noble Lord, Lord Davies of Stamford, talks about the signal that the passage of the legislation would send. With great respect to him, I do not believe that the passage of a Bill with this title would set all the flags flying in the capitals of the developing world. Legislation is not the best vehicle for gestures and signals. If you want to send gestures and signals, things like manifestos and Queen’s Speeches are the appropriate means of doing that. Therefore I support wholeheartedly the spirit behind this amendment, that this expenditure, however good and however meritorious, needs to be subject to the same discipline as other public expenditure.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, I have no interest to declare save that some of my best friends are in the Treasury. The argument has been made about a signal. I think that it is an important signal to the developing world and to other countries, which are manifestly failing in respect of the moneys that they spend. It would certainly give us a greater lever to use with regard to that, although I am not so convinced by that argument.

However, I notice—and I will be very brief—that the argument used, very powerfully, by those who have spoken in favour of the amendment is rigour and accountability. They speak as if no accountability is likely. There are a number of accountability mechanisms, one of which is of course the Select Committee. The Select Committee is able to throw a searchlight on mistakes that are made by any government department so that any middle-ranking civil servant or higher civil servant who made the decision knows that at any stage they may be hauled before the committee and asked to justify their action or lack of action, which can be extremely embarrassing. Of course, the proposal then is retrospective, but it has relevance for any future decisions. It is also certainly a corrective for anyone particularly in a ministry such as this, which is more than most subject to pressure groups and non-governmental organisations from outside, and it gives them a degree of rigour.

Equally, of course, one has the NAO. That very powerful report—and I have not heard DfID give a very convincing reply to this—showed the extent to which there was a readiness to spend almost for the sake of spending. All of us, and perhaps most of us, have been in such positions. I recall once having an entertainment allowance; as I had only spent 50% of it by the end of the year, I ensured that I used up the rest of the money very quickly in the last few weeks—so there is that temptation.

Those noble Lords who have spoken thus far seem to ignore the relevant clause, Clause 5, where again there is a mechanism for accountability. There is accountability, and the danger is that if we were to accept this amendment, it would be rather like the French “en principe”. Yes, of course we are all in favour of aid and of 0.7% of GNI in principle, but if this amendment were to be accepted it would effectively drive a coach and horses through the Bill.

[Viscount Eccles (Con)]

My Lords, I speak as somebody who was part of the aid programme for a number of years with the Commonwealth Development Corporation and who was subjected to Treasury discipline. At the time, in today’s money we were responsible for about £3 billion of assets. Under the statutory arrangements of the day, we were partly responsible to the Foreign Office and partly to the ODA. The ODA arranged the monitoring meetings at which we would account for how we were getting on with the income and expenditure related to £3 billion of assets. In the run-up to the meeting, the discussions we had within CDC were all about what the Treasury official would ask us in the meeting which followed. From our point of view, in formal terms, the Treasury official had no right to be there, but of course the Treasury has a way of being where it wants to be.

International Development (Official Development Assistance Target) Bill

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Friday 6th February 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

I am sorry; I am not quite sure what point the noble Lord is making. I am trying to deliver the last sentence of my contribution and I do not understand why the noble Lord feels that it is right to keep interrupting.

I am sure that your Lordships’ House is the place that can refine and improve a Bill and will not try to knock down or contain attempts to improve it, as I believe this amendment does. We have heard from the noble Lord, Lord Butler, and we have heard many wise voices from our Back Benches. We have heard from major committees in other countries, from the Dutch and German ministries and from House of Commons committees that there is a danger of too much emphasis being put on overseas development assistance as “the” target and “the” duty, which could badly distort our development priorities. Today, we need new priorities, and the Bill should reflect them and not reject them. That is why I am grateful to those noble Lords who are prepared to hear some doubts about an otherwise noble and well intentioned Bill.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, I want to make one observation, which alas may be deemed to be going for the man rather than the ball on the eve of a rather important rugby game. I listened to the noble Lord, Lord Lawson, proudly setting out his credentials as an advocate of aid. Had he been in his place at Second Reading, he would have heard the noble Baroness, Lady Chalker, for whom I have immense admiration, stating that, to her shame, during his time as Chancellor the proportion of our aid contribution fell to 0.28% of GNI. Perhaps that is something we should bear in mind when he sets out his credentials so proudly.

[Viscount Eccles (Con)]

My Lords, perhaps I could make a very brief intervention. My noble friend referred to the Colonial Development Corporation. In my time it was the Commonwealth Development Corporation—now called CDC. It may come as some surprise to your Lordships that it is still 100% owned by the taxpayer, but that is now a well kept secret. When I was fortunate enough to be its chief executive, we were much interested in income as well as in expenditure. One of the difficulties and the need for flexibility in this target is that if you are interested in income as well as expenditure, you cannot very well set the figure before the beginning of the year with any great accuracy. You need some flexibility.

That leads me on to a thought that is also a very strong reason for there being flexibility, as the noble Lord, Lord Butler, said. Life moves on. Things change very rapidly. Without the flexibility to adjust to those changes, you can be in great trouble. It has always seemed strange to me that, ever since the great days of Lord Bauer and Lord Balogh debating aid seriously in this House, in the 15 years that I have been in this House I have not yet heard a really serious debate about third world, second world or whatever world development—not one. In those days, there were serious debates on the subject and they got down into the depths of it, as indeed my noble friend Lord Howell was trying to indicate—much, I think, to the disappointment of the House.

I end by saying that I hope your Lordships will not regard the whole business of overseas development as a shut subject: “There is nothing more to say about it, we all know the answers and so we set this fixed, rigid target”. Finally, I think the structure when ODA came under a Minister of State within the Foreign Office was a much better structure than the one we have today.

International Development (Official Development Assistance Target) Bill

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Friday 23rd January 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, I was Leon Brittan’s pair and I wholeheartedly endorse every word in the tributes paid by the noble Lords, Lord Fowler and Lord Tugendhat, and share with them the sadness and the willingness to be with Diana at this very sad time.

I support the Bill so ably moved by the noble Lord, Lord Purvis, but accept that it is largely symbolic. Since this is a consensus Bill, no party in the future would dare to move away from or fall below the 0.7% of GNI target. I support the Bill on moral grounds, not passing by on the other side, but also because I believe that it is in our national interest broadly defined. I have had the good fortune to travel widely and see at first hand the work of DfID—I join in the chorus of approval for it—but also the work of non-governmental organisations and wonderful individuals from the UK.

That said, we do no service to developing countries or to our own taxpayers if we abandon our proper scrutiny, value-for-money criteria and accountability. Those are points raised in the Select Committee’s report published in March 2012 and in Clause 5 of the Bill.

I shall make a few random observations. We must be willing in a positive spirit to ask hard questions—heart, yes, but head also. Why, for example, has South Korea pulled itself up so remarkably when so many other countries, particularly in Africa, remain dependent on aid? It is not a question of natural resources. Is it bad governance? Is it tribalism? Is it culture? Is it corruption? Is it armed conflict? Or is it failures in the education system?

We must also be prepared to challenge political correctness; for example, in confronting problems of long-term population increase. This is not only a question of women’s reproductive health; it is not only a question of education of women in family spacing, for example; but it is clear that population explosion may negate the effects of aid. For example, who dares point out that the recent turmoil in Kenya is due not just to tribalism but to competition for land from the booming population; that the population of the Philippines has doubled in the recent past; and that the population of Gaza was in 1948 250,000 and is now 1.8 million on that small territory?

My main point, however, relates to the definition of aid, the remit of DfID, the need for “Whitehallism” and market share, and co-operation with other countries and international organisations to maximise the beneficial effects of aid. Failure to include such considerations will only give ammunition to the populist press. Purists strongly oppose any proposal to weaken or dilute the definition of what should be within the 0.7% target. They may often fall into the trap of concentrating on the amount rather than on quality or effectiveness.

The budget of DfID is ring-fenced; the budgets of the FCO and MoD are not and under increasing strain. Surely we should recognise the contribution of these departments to our national aid effort. I have in mind particularly—and the noble Baroness, Lady Chalker, will recognise it, too—the work done by the British Council in education in South Africa in the past. Even the most “pure” aid specialists would surely agree that the MoD’s work to combat Ebola in west Africa should be reimbursed from our aid budget, as it has been. We should at least consider taking that precedent further on the grounds that there can be no development without security and possibly include our contribution to international peacekeeping, even perhaps seeking to look again at the OECD definition of official aid, which I concede is wide in part, including support for civilian nuclear energy.

The independent appraisal proposed under Clause 5 should be given adequate resources and expertise. It should look at the precedents of co-ordination in Whitehall, for example, in the Balkans in the 1990s and more recently in Afghanistan.

The NAO report has been mentioned. This only underlines the case for an independent evaluation and the need for accountability and transparency, which is overwhelming. Any evaluation should include not only the value added from co-ordination within Whitehall, but also from co-ordination with international organisations and bilaterally. There is a good precedent here over co-operation on Ebola, for example—Liberia to the USA, Guinea to France and Sierra Leone to the UK. I recall Robin Cook’s excellent initiative after 1997 in building co-operation with France in west Africa. Whatever became of that?

With these few observations, I end not in a spirit of negative criticism but by welcoming the commitment of the Bill. Once we accept that principle in legislation, as I am confident we shall do, we should be ready to ask hard questions about effectiveness and value for money. Therefore, Clause 5 is an essential element of this important Bill.

Gaza: Reconstruction

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Wednesday 29th October 2014 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Northover]

I would agree with my noble friend.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, it is surely quite right that vast sums should be pledged by the international community for reconstruction. But what assurances were given by Hamas and its successor that the sums they receive are conditional on good conduct—in particular, on not provocatively raining ever more rockets on Israel?

[Baroness Northover]

It is worth bearing in mind that, as I said, we urge restraint on both sides. In that conflict, 71 Israelis lost their lives and 2,131 Palestinians were killed. It is extremely important that we move forward into a proper peace process.

Sudan: Meriam Ibrahim

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Tuesday 10th June 2014 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Northover]

The noble Lord is absolutely right to highlight this case, and I thank him for highlighting the global summit taking place this week. This case shows how important that summit is.

As I mentioned, my right honourable friend the Prime Minister condemned the sentencing. He stated that he was absolutely appalled by the decision and called her treatment barbaric. The Foreign Office has called on the Government of Sudan to respect the right to freedom of religion and belief, a right which, as the noble Lord said, is enshrined in international human rights law, as well as in Sudan’s 2005 interim constitution. My honourable friend Lynne Featherstone also raised this case on 20 May with the Sudanese Foreign Minister. It is a case, above all, about freedom of religion and belief, and the noble Lord is quite right to highlight it.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

Would it not be appropriate if Muslim leaders in this country—perhaps throughout Europe—who benefit from our freedom of religion, were to make an appeal to the Sudanese authorities, perhaps with international organisations such as the OIC? Have the Government encouraged British Muslim leaders to make such an appeal?

[Baroness Northover]

One of the features about this case—there are others—is the international outcry. A striking thing is the way that it has affected the Government of Sudan, who were taken aback by it. That shows that this kind of campaign—as the noble Lord will know, a lot is going on through social media—can be effective, and that all voices need to contribute.

Sudan

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Tuesday 11th February 2014 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Northover]

As indicated by the previous question, the Government of Sudan have a clear obligation to co-operate with the International Criminal Court in terms of Security Council Resolution 1593 and have repeatedly failed to do so. We continue to make clear to the Government of Sudan that we expect compliance with the arrest warrants for the ICC indictees. The noble Lord mentioned further challenges and a possible new Security Council resolution. I must tell him that we think it is unlikely that that will be achievable at the moment, but obviously we take very seriously the reports that are coming through to us.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, will the Government refuse to be part—directly or indirectly —of any debt relief operation?

Human Rights

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Thursday 21st November 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, I congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Alton, who I much admire, on his commitment and his courage, often in joint harness with the noble Baroness, Lady Cox. I will make three brief points.

First, I recall in the early 1980s going to a south Asian country and saying to our ambassador, “What are you doing about human rights?”. His answer was, “Oh, that’s a job for my first secretary”. That would no longer be allowed. Indeed, there has been an immeasurable improvement in the overseas department’s links and attitude to human rights. I think, for example, of changes in the structure of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, with the human rights and democracy department; the human rights report, which, happily, came from a recommendation of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, which I chaired at that time, which has certainly been refined and improved; the human rights and democracy programme; and also the much improved links with non-governmental organisations.

My second point is about the interlink between the domestic and the foreign. I recall the former Foreign Minister of Australia, Senator Gareth Evans, saying, “How can we Australians be taken seriously on human rights representations abroad if we maltreat our Aborigines”—being Australian, he actually said “Abos”—“at home”. That shows that there is a linkage between what we do at home and the strength of our representations abroad. That obviously relates to our immigration policy, our counterterrorism policy and our attitudes to Islamophobia and anti-Semitism.

Looking at our international organisations, I am delighted that we are now on the Human Rights Council, which is an enormous improvement on its predecessor, the United Nations Commission on Human Rights, which could reach agreement only on attacks on Israel. I look forward to reports during our two-year tenure, starting in January. I think also of the Commonwealth and the Council of Europe, included in the second priority in the 2012 human rights report.

On the Commonwealth, of course we think of CHOGM and whether or not the Prime Minister should have attended the Sri Lankan summit. Yes, there is a time for engagement but I am troubled by the question of cui bono—who actually benefited most from the Prime Minister’s attendance? I fear that the answer may well be the President of Sri Lanka. The Commonwealth charter is a magnificent document but in practice, if one looks at the 60% of Commonwealth countries that still have capital punishment and attitudes towards the criminalisation of homosexuality, there is much work for our Government to do in persuading our Commonwealth colleagues of the importance of human rights.

On the Council of Europe, there is a danger of the Government making a major error in defying the European Court of Human Rights in respect of prisoners’ rights. I do not talk about the subject of the question but the danger of defiance. The Prime Minister unwisely said that,

“no one should be in any doubt: prisoners are not getting the vote under this Government”.—[Official Report, Commons, 24/10/12; col. 923.]

I saw the embarrassment of the Attorney-General when he appeared before the Joint Committee earlier this month. It would be a disastrous precedent in respect of Russia, Turkey and other defaulters, if we—pioneers of the system in the Council of Europe—were to defy it. There is a way out. Clearly the court will grant a wide margin of appreciation. It is insisting only that there is no blanket ban.

Finally, there has to be a balance in any matter of human rights. Sometimes it is best to do things in a low voice and behind the scenes. I was a member of the human rights mission to China that was led extremely ably by the noble and learned Lord, Lord Howe of Aberavon, in which we were effective because we made quiet representations to the Chinese authorities. I concede also that there is a temptation to be strong on the weak and weak on the strong.

Of the six FCO priorities, freedom of religion is key. This has been the leitmotif of so many speeches in this debate. It is very important indeed that the Government consider seriously the recommendation of the excellent report of the noble Baroness, Lady Berridge, and others, Article 18: An Orphaned Right, which includes the right to change one’s religion, which was omitted from the final communiqué of CHOGM—I wonder why. The Government should look carefully at the case for a special envoy or ambassador and I hope that they will come back with a positive response to that.

Global Partnership for Aid Effectiveness

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Tuesday 16th July 2013 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Northover]

My noble friend is quite right, and if she looks—as I am sure she has—at the recent DfID annual report, she will see that evidence there. It is extremely important that both aid givers, such as the United Kingdom, and aid recipients make sure that they address the requirements laid down in Busan. Only by doing so will we ensure that aid is most effectively delivered and has its greatest effect.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, on the drain of staff, how does one seek to resolve the problem of staff of talent being attracted into the private sector, and also into the international organisation sector, with salaries that are perhaps four or five times more than they can get in their own Administrations? That only encourages corruption.

[Baroness Northover]

The noble Lord might look at the United Kingdom, too, and wonder whether that is a challenge that we also face. Of course it is a challenge, and it is one that we are well aware of. It is encouraging to see that there are very talented people working within, for example, the sovereign wealth funds, which can be useful instruments in the economic development of some of those countries.

Queen’s Speech

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Wednesday 15th May 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, I do not share the expertise of the noble and right reverend Lord, Lord Eames, or the noble Viscount, Lord Eccles, on development, so I shall return to mainstream foreign affairs. On them, the gracious Speech is thin. Bizarrely, the European Union is not mentioned, yet it is likely to dominate the debate, at least until the general election as the civil war within the Conservative ranks continues. The unfortunate Prime Minister, like a penguin house keeper in a zoo, keeps feeding fish to the Eurosceptic critics hoping they will be satisfied, but they swallow the fish and will continue to ask for more.

So not turning to Europe, I look elsewhere. Traditionally, these debates turn into somewhat gloomy analyses of wars and rumours of wars, blighted hopes, such as, perhaps, the Arab spring, massacres, floods, tempests and development ending with an appeal that we must do something. There are, of course, many such events and crises in our world today, but temperamentally, as a Welsh nonconformist, I seek signs of hope and improvement since we last had such a debate, and there are indeed such signs of hope: for the first time, one civilian Government has followed another in Pakistan; a general election in Kenya ended without tribal massacres; discoveries of natural resources will assist needy Commonwealth countries, such as Ghana and Papua New Guinea and developing countries such as Indonesia; and the PKK has agreed a ceasefire with the Government of Turkey. Major challenges remain, but there are positive developments in Somalia. Last September, the first President was elected since 1991 and elections are planned by 2016. I warmly congratulate the Foreign Secretary on co-hosting the London conference earlier this month and receiving pledges of support, particularly for the security sector. Piracy has more than halved.

Nearer home, there are continued improvements in the western Balkans. On 19 April, an accord was signed between Serbia and Kosovo that does not amount to the recognition of Kosovo but in effect concedes legal authority to Pristina over the whole territory, which is a step, although there are continued problems in the Serbian-controlled part north of the River Ibar. This shows the importance of EU membership as a magnet and is—dare I say it?—a triumph for a Member of this House, my noble friend Lady Ashton, and EU diplomacy. Perhaps the Minister will say a little about how Her Majesty’s Government intend to help both parties build on that agreement.

After these signs of hope, I turn to more traditional themes: Israel/Palestine and the Syrian refugee crisis. I have just returned from that area. It is clear that the parties concerned cannot reach agreement on their own, and outside intervention, particularly that of the United States, is needed. The area is known not for any spirit of compromise or for power sharing but for winner takes all, so President Assad and Israel face existential threats, and there is the danger of both conflicts spreading regionally well beyond their borders.

As for the Middle East peace process, having recently visited Israel, I read with approval the excellent article by Sir Tom Phillips, our former ambassador to Saudi Arabia and to Israel, in August’s edition of Prospect. He gave 10 rules for why hopes for peace have grown bleaker in the past six years. However, since then some developments suggest that the prospects are marginally less bleak. As wags might say, “We have reached the last chance yet again”. Senator Kerry has been very active in what might be a pre-negotiation phase. I was delighted that my meetings with Abu Mazen and Tzipi Livni were interrupted by him. Qatar, on behalf of the Arab League, modified the Arab peace initiative to include agreed minor border swaps.

The Palestinian Authority has delayed taking Israel to the International Criminal Court, and although there have been ambiguous signals from Israel on a settlement freeze, on 1 May Prime Minister Netanyahu told senior officials of the Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs that Israel needs to reach peace with the Palestinians to avoid becoming a bi-national state. Perhaps he now recognises that he had no answer to the question: “If not two states, then what? What is your plan B?”. Only a two-state solution can be properly sought. Perhaps his rethinking is being sparked by a hard look at demographic trends between the Mediterranean and the Jordan and the increasing international isolation of Israel, shown most markedly in the vote at the UN General Assembly last November, with the settlement policy criticised even by the Czech Foreign Minister, who alone of the EU countries supported Israel in that November vote.

Alas, neither side seems ready to educate their constituencies. The Palestinians refuse to abandon the illusion of some vast right of return to Israel proper, and Israel refuses to educate its constituency about the future of Jerusalem. Of course we have to understand Israel’s need for solid security arrangements, for regional recognition of its legitimacy and to avoid silly gestures, such as that by Professor Hawking. If there were to be a sustained international effort, there are at least some limited signs of hope.

On Syria and refugees, we despair at the paralysis at the United Nations, the military stalemate, the danger of the conflict spreading regionally and the continued suffering. Only a political solution can solve the problem, hence the importance of last week’s meeting in Moscow between Senator Kerry and Foreign Minister Lavrov. The UN and the Arab League envoy, Mr Brahimi, called the decision to seek to convene an international conference before the end of this month,

“the first hopeful news concerning that unhappy country in a very long time”.

I will make three brief observations from my recent visit to Jordan. First, on the scale of the humanitarian disaster, an estimated 4 million refugees will have fled Syria by the end of the year. There are 140,000 refugees in the Za’atri camp, which I visited in Jordan. There has been a failure of the international community to respond adequately, with only about one-third of the sums pledged at Kuwait actually available for the UN to spend on those refugees. Secondly, on the financial and resource pressures on the fragile state of Jordan, at present 10% of the population of Jordan is composed of refugees; by the year end it will be 25%; and by this time next year it is estimated to be 40%.

Finally, there is an apparent lack of planning in the international community for the day after Assad. Any successor Government in Syria will inherit a wasteland for which vast reconstruction resources are needed. I ask the Minister what is being done to encourage the laggards to honour the promises made at Kuwait to pay for the Syrian refugees. What are HMG doing to help Jordan? What lessons have been learnt from reconstruction after the fall of Saddam in Iraq? Given the poor precedent of the international response to the refugee crisis from Syria, what preparations are there to assist the reconstruction of that sad country after the eventual fall of Assad?

Foreign Affairs: Global Role, Emerging Powers and New Markets

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Thursday 6th December 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, I begin by formally proposing the noble Lord as chairman of the possible international affairs committee. I had the privilege of following him as chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee. I have enormous respect for him and the work that he did on the Front Bench, when he was always courteous and on top of the subject. He always answered questions, which is not always the case with those on the Front Bench. I fondly welcome him to the Back Benches.

Lest this should appear to be an obituary, I detected at least one blind spot in the noble Lord’s analysis, on which I shall focus. I agree with him that we need to seek markets for our goods and services worldwide and to be ever ready to respond to global trends. However, I stress that our core area is our own region here in Europe, which accounts for 50% of our trade. It is manifestly not a case of either/or. Recent surveys predict a slower growth of our exports into the European market. Clearly the dominance of the City of London—which can, I hope, look after itself—has recently been challenged by the governor of the Bank of France, which is the penalty of our choosing to be outside the euro. Of course we need to increase our exports to the BRICs and elsewhere but there is evidence of slower growth in those markets. For example, the projected growth for Brazil this year is just under 1%; the projection for India in the financial year 2012-13 is 5.5%—the lowest for a decade; and in the third quarter, growth in Russia fell to 2.9% and in China to 7.4%.

Our starting point is surely the wisdom of the Oracle at Delphi: know thyself. We need a realistic, not a nostalgic, analysis of our strengths and weaknesses and the global environment in which we trade—know thyself. Of course, as the noble Lord said, we emerged with many advantages from our history, not least of which is the English language, our centres of excellence, our military, our diplomacy and our universities. However, the Government should be worried about the self-imposed threat to our economic prospects posed by the sharp decline in student applications from India.

Our history has made us members of key international organisations: the UN Security Council, NATO, the EU and the Commonwealth. The last, in my judgment, is surely the blind spot of the noble Lord's presentation. I consider myself a Commonwealth man, having chaired the UK branch of the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association for four years, but I do not recognise the picture painted by the noble Lord. Recent CHOGMs have raised hopes of deep institutional change, but Commonwealth institutions are now in some considerable disarray. Successive Governments in the UK have worked hard to develop relations with India, a key emerging market. Frankly, however, India has little interest in the Commonwealth and is very hard-nosed on commercial matters, as we have seen on the Typhoon purchase.

In a lecture on 19 June 2007, the then Commonwealth Secretary-General, Don McKinnon, gently but effectively undermined much of the thesis of the noble Lord. I certainly do not accuse the noble Lord of this, but some in his party use Commonwealth enthusiasm as a cover for their anti-Europeanism. The Commonwealth that they favour is mainly the old dominions. That leads to symbolic and often silly gestures such as the recent agreement on the co-location of embassies with Canada at a time when our foreign policy formulation is increasingly based on close working relationships with our European partners. This is on a par with the threat by former Defence Secretary Liam Fox to leave the European Defence Agency, with its pooling and sharing—happily, the Government now appear to be rethinking this—as well as with the severing of relations with their natural allies in Europe, the European People’s Party.

An audit of relations with the EU has been ordered by the Foreign Secretary in an effort to placate anti-Europeans. I understand that the Foreign Office recently met Professor Sejersted of Norway to discuss the methodology and conclusions of his similar audit in Norway. He concluded that Norway’s relationship amounted to integration without representation—hardly a model for others.

Of course the EU may now develop a tighter inner core. We are likely to find ourselves, albeit with variable geometry, on the exterior. However, our policies seem designed to lose good friends such as Poland. Surely the Government should recognise that to leave the EU or to seek unrealistic objectives would be a major blow to our trade, not only with the EU but with third countries. I cite the recent reply in the European Parliament given by Commissioner De Gucht, who said:

“The Commission takes the view that if a Member State were to leave the European Union it would no longer benefit from preferential arrangements included in EU trade agreements. In such circumstances, a Member State would not be subject to the Union’s common commercial policy and could no longer benefit from agreements negotiated on that basis. Moreover, a third country offers concessions to the EU on a reciprocal basis, expecting market access to the Union as a whole. Third countries would be unlikely to offer as generous concessions to a Member State which has activated Article 50 that could only offer access to its own market”.

We should quite properly look at a free trade agreement with the US. There will be better prospects for that after the likely failure of the Doha round. We should remember that it is the European Union which will negotiate on our behalf as I hope we move step by step towards a free trade agreement. If any state were to leave the European Union, it would lose bargaining power and would receive less generous concessions from third parties.

My conclusion is that we should seek to boost trade throughout the world, both in the Commonwealth and elsewhere. In the debate on the future of the EU we have natural allies, but currently the Government seem to be doing their best to irritate them. Even very strong Anglophiles such as Mario Monti publicly state their exasperation and despair at UK policies. He says, in effect: “Make up your minds. Do not marginalise yourselves by your actions, which will make planning more difficult for us”. In short, we should know ourselves and avoid ideological illusions.