Greece: Default Contingency

Lord Davies of Stamford Excerpts

Monday 20th June 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord Sassoon]

My Lords, I have not been on the streets of Greece or seen what is going on in Athens, but clearly it is regrettable if anti-German sentiments are being expressed on the streets there. However, I have not been following the detail of the riots. The main thing is that we need to support the Greek Government and encourage them, as the eurozone Ministers have done in their statement today, to progress their package and enable the IMF to complete the upcoming assessment. As for the second-order effects of who needs capital where in order for loans to flow, my noble friend reinforces the point that this is a very interconnected system and the ongoing work on the short-term and medium-term stability of the eurozone has to be mindful—as we have been reminded already this evening—of the interconnectedness of the systems at every level.

[Lord Davies of Stamford]

My Lords, is it not the case that this is not a euro crisis, as many commentators have been trying to pretend, but a Greek funding and fiscal crisis caused by excessive borrowing by the Greeks, irresponsible lending and mispricing of risk by lenders? It is not the first time that we have seen that in the past year or two. Does the Minister agree that this would have arisen irrespective of the currency that Greece happened to have? It would have happened whether Greece had been in the dollar zone or the pound sterling zone or still had the drachma. Secondly, to avoid the risk of a considerable panic, is not a renegotiated package for Greece necessary, providing for an orderly restructuring of its debts, a credible series of repayments and a set of definite figures for offsets and provisions by Greece’s creditors? Is it not time that we began to think in those terms? Thirdly, is it not the case that Greece leaving the euro or a Greek devaluation is the opposite of what is required? If Greece went back to the drachma, it would of course greatly enhance the value of its euro debts—and its debts are primarily in euros—but that would increase the burden on Greece and increase the portion of Greek assets that overseas lenders and investors would have to write off. Such a move would be counterproductive and damaging from our point of view as well. Moreover, devaluation never works as a stimulus to growth unless wage bargainers are under monetary illusion and cannot tell the difference between nominal and real wages and do not ask to be compensated for the reduction in real purchasing power. That is a most unlikely situation for Greece at the present time.

[Lord Sassoon]

I agree with the noble Lord, Lord Davies of Stamford, that if the UK continued with the excessive deficit policies of the previous Government, we would be in a terrible mess in this country. Whether you are in or out of the euro makes no difference, and the UK would be experiencing considerable problems if we had not gripped the deficit. I agree with the implication of his analysis on that point. On the second question about sustainable financing, that is precisely where the IMF starts its assessment of debt sustainability. The critical first plank of sustainability for Greek debt hinges on Greece sticking to its agreed fiscal consolidation path. All else flows from that. As for the Greeks or anyone else leaving the euro, that is a hypothetical question and not one that we should spend any time on.