Economic Forecasts

Lord Dobbs Excerpts

Tuesday 17th January 2017 Lords Chamber

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government how the United Kingdom economy has performed since 23 June, in terms of growth and employment; and how this compares to forecasts made by the Treasury during the referendum campaign.

[Lord Dobbs (Con)]

My Lords, at his request and with the leave of the House, I beg leave to ask the Question standing in the name of my noble friend Lord Forsyth of Drumlean.

[The Commercial Secretary to the Treasury (Baroness Neville-Rolfe) (Con)]

In quarter 3 of 2016, following the EU referendum, UK GDP growth was 0.6%, and the unemployment rate is now 4.8%. These figures show that not only was the economy stronger than we thought going into the referendum, it has been much more resilient than many people projected—“a brighter future”, in the Prime Minister’s words. The short-term pre-referendum analysis published by the Treasury was based on a specific set of assumptions, some of which have already proved invalid.

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[Lord Dobbs]

My Lords, what a joy it must be for us all to see business confidence rising and industry expanding; what excitement there is in seeing so many great, global countries recommitting themselves to Great Britain; and what a sadness for so many of us to see so many so-called experts having got it so wrong so frequently. Michael Fish got it wrong just once, not every night for six months. Does my noble friend agree that we have a clear objective, we have a clear agenda, and it is now time for all of us, no matter what side we took during the referendum campaign, to accept the very clear instructions of the British people and help to deliver the very best Brexit deal that common sense and common European interest can deliver?

[Baroness Neville-Rolfe]

I agree with my noble friend that we should try to deliver the best deal for this country that we can. Obviously, the analysis was based on a specific set of assumptions. They may have seemed sensible at the time but, with the benefit of hindsight, these things are always difficult. The Treasury also cited the uncertainty that a leave vote would cause, weighing on the economy, and it was therefore good to see certainty at the top of the Prime Minister’s list of objectives today.