Middle East: Economic Update

Lord Fox Excerpts

Tuesday 28th April 2026 Lords Chamber

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I am grateful to the noble Lord for his question. We are repairing the public finances. At the time of the spring forecast, borrowing was set to fall more over this Parliament than in any other G7 economy. We are now borrowing below the G7 average, something that was not achieved in any of the 14 years of the previous Government. Just last week, we saw borrowing in the year to February fall by £20 billion compared with the previous year.

The noble Lord is absolutely right, of course, that the welfare system requires reforming. In the last five years of the previous Government, spending on welfare increased by £88 billion so, clearly, reform is necessary. There might not be consensus on what to do about it, but no one would believe that the system we inherited is working. It abandoned too many people to a life on benefits, wrote off too many people as too sick to work and condemned too many children to be too poor to eat. That is not a system that does not require reform, and reforming it we are.

To tackle fraud and error, we are increasing the proportion of face-to-face assessments for PIP from 6% in 2024 to 30%, saving £4.6 billion. We are rebalancing universal credit to incentivise people to work, rather than encouraging inactivity. We are redeploying 1,000 work coaches to support sick and disabled people who were previously left without contact. We are also supporting people to move into work, with £3 billion of investment into the pathways to work employment support and a £1.5 billion investment in the youth guarantee and the growth and skills levy.

[Lord Fox (LD)]

My Lords, returning to defence spending, the Minister referred to the biggest sustained increase in that spending. If it happens, we will welcome it, but it does not happen until the defence investment plan is published. I noted the slight smile on his face when he said, “in due course”, but if that money is not forthcoming then the GCAP project will not have its next stage payment. If it is not forthcoming, there will be SMEs across the country waiting for contracts to go but will not be able to fulfil them, because they will be out of business. Last week, the noble Lord, Lord Dodds, and I heard the Estonian Defence Minister specifically call out the United Kingdom for being slow to come up with the money. When will the Treasury release the defence investment plan, because, if it does not, there will be consequences?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

Of course there are consequences; I agree completely with the noble Lord. He talks of a hypothetical of the defence investment plan not happening. It will happen and, as I have said already, it will be published in due course.