Brexit: Economic Impact Debate
Full Debate: Read Full DebateDepartment: Department for International Development
Lord Hannay of Chiswick
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Brexit: Economic Impact
Lord Hannay of Chiswick Excerpts(5 years, 2 months ago)
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Lord Hannay of Chiswick (CB)
My Lords, does the Minister not recognise that it was a little odd to produce three rather theoretical options but not to test them against the present situation? Why did the Government not do that? That would be the normal thing to do. Could it have been that they were frightened to show that all these options were a good deal worse, some of them very much worse?
Lord Bates
In some sense they did that, because the analysis benchmarked against the status quo—our membership of the European Union. It then went through the options and said that, over a 15-year period, if the White Paper model were accepted there would be a 0.6% impact on GDP, 2.1% modelled on White Paper sensitivity, 4.9% on a free trade agreement and 7.7% on no deal.