Covid-19: Transparency and Accuracy of Statistics

Lord Lamont of Lerwick Excerpts

Monday 9th November 2020 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bethell (Con)]

My Lords, the noble Baroness is right that, statistically, care homes present a unique challenge. There are more than 15,000 care homes, many of which are not plugged into day-to-day statistical canvassing and, therefore, knowing exactly what happens in every care home every day is a particularly large challenge. However, we have thrown an enormous amount of resources at that problem, and our understanding of the care home situation in relation to Covid is much better than it was. The precise statistics she asks for today are not at my fingertips, but I would be glad to write to her with a number.

[Lord Lamont of Lerwick (Con)]

My Lords, would the Minister agree that it is an extremely serious matter when the statistics authority criticises government advisers’ use of statistics? If the public are to accept lockdown and all the restrictions involved, they need to have confidence in the statistics and that they are not speculative. Would the Minister agree that the graph with four scenarios for daily deaths from Covid, rising to 4,000 a day—a rate that exceeds that of Brazil, which has three times our population—should never have been shown at the Prime Minister’s press conference? If he does not agree with that, why was it subsequently modified?

[Lord Bethell (Con)]

My Lords, my noble friend is entirely right: statistics are critical and very important to public trust. No one takes them more seriously than this Government. However, I remind him that it was not the statistics that the Office for Statistics Regulation expressed concern about; it was about material being used in press conferences that has not been published at the press conferences as they happened. That was a function of the speed at which that press conference was turned around, but he is entirely right that that chart had a presentational error in it, which was corrected. It was published as a result of the publication of the data behind it. I reassure him that the data upon which decisions were made and the data that went into the central case of that chart was correct, and the fact that we have changed it demonstrates that we are committed to transparency in all these matters.