Economic Growth

Lord Leigh of Hurley Excerpts

Tuesday 16th September 2025 Lords Chamber

Asked by

[Lord Leigh of Hurley]

To ask His Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the growth figures for July 2025.

[The Financial Secretary to the Treasury (Lord Livermore) (Lab)]

My Lords, UK GDP grew by 0.2% in the three months to July 2025, following an increase of 0.3% in the three months to June. Overall, the economy grew by 1% in the first half of this year, well above the OBR forecast of 0.6%. This means the UK was the fastest-growing economy in the G7 over this period. Of course, we want to go further, which is why economic growth remains the Government’s number one priority.

[Lord Leigh of Hurley (Con)]

Indeed it is, but the ONS said that there is zero growth in GDP. Of course, that means that GDP per capita will be negative, partly because productive people are leaving and less productive people are arriving. The markets have made their view of our economy clear, as our borrowing rates are higher than in any other country in the G7. Will the Minister agree to meet the Growth Commission, which has some excellent ideas on growth? As Treasury Minister, will he persuade his new colleagues of what every employer is saying, that the Employment Rights Bill will severely curtail growth? Now is the time to amend it.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I am very grateful to the noble Lord for his question and for his thoughts on growing the economy. After his success in advocating for a Brexit deal that reduced GDP by 4%, it is always very helpful to get his advice on economic growth.

The noble Lord mentioned the monthly growth figures. I do not know whether he is an avid reader of the Office for National Statistics blog posts, but he may have seen that the ONS announced this week that it will be reverting to leading with the three-monthly growth figures, which are less volatile and provide a clearer picture of underlying economic momentum. He may therefore have seen that UK GDP increased in the three months to July. In that data released, we can see that the Government’s action to turn around the legacy of underinvestment from his Government, opposed now by the party opposite, is having an effect, and construction output increased by 0.6%, driven by 2.1% growth in new infrastructure work.

The noble Lord may also have seen that exports to the US increased in July. He may have seen that the UK economy grew by 1% in the first half of this year, and that as a result, the UK is the fastest-growing economy in the G7. He may have seen Lloyds Bank’s latest business barometer, which shows that business confidence rose for the fourth consecutive month to its highest level in 10 years.