Energy Bill
Debate between Lord O'Neill of Clackmannan and Viscount Ridley
Lord O'Neill of Clackmannan
If this plant were to become necessary, the price would rise—but the “if” involved in the “were” of this plant becoming necessary is still open to doubt. The noble Lord has taken the worst possible scenario and tried to build the case on it for something that will be extremely attractive and very convenient for the companies that have been lobbying him. It might suit their purposes but it might not suit everybody else’s—and it may not even be necessary in the first place. That is why I have doubts about this sort of stuff, which is almost built on the back of Daily Express scaremongering. We know that there is going to be a terrible winter next year, as there is going to be every year—and, we are told, there are going to be blackouts. Well, we have had terrible winters and, so far, we have not had any blackouts. It is getting worse because the generating capacity is diminishing, but it is not yet diminishing at the rate that would necessarily require us to do what the noble Lord asks us to do.
Viscount Ridley
I had not intended to intervene on this point, but I would like to make a similar point to the noble Lord, Lord O’Neill, although coming at it from a rather different direction. I agree with him that what we will see in terms of the capacity squeeze are price spikes, and, therefore, capacity coming back into use. In that context, it is very well worth noting that, at the cost end of the spectrum for the generators, there is an increasing view among markets—not a consensus, which would be the wrong word—that gas prices are likely to fall over the next few years. I do not know whether anybody saw the FT blog from Nick Butler yesterday, but he made the point that for four reasons gas prices are likely to fall. Not one of those reasons included shale gas; he was saying that, even outside the effect of shale gas, we are likely to see huge new resources coming on stream in the Mediterranean and East Africa and offshore in the Americas, that the LNG market will produce a much more globalised market in gas and that the Japanese uptick in gas demand following the closure of the Fukushima nuclear plant is coming to an end. Combine that with falling demand in India and China, and it is quite possible that we will see falling gas prices. It is quite possible that, as the noble Lord, Lord O’Neill, said, we will be able to see this mothballed plant come back into operation because of rising prices for electricity and falling prices for gas without having to, as it were, bribe them. It is important that we are not in the business of making life easy for producers but in that of making life as easy as possible for consumers of energy.
Energy Bill
Debate between Lord O'Neill of Clackmannan and Viscount Ridley
Viscount Ridley
My Lords, I, too, rise to oppose the amendment moved by the noble Lord, Lord Oxburgh—although I greatly appreciate some of the points that he has made—and, to some extent, to echo what the noble Lord, Lord Dixon-Smith, said. We have heard a lot about the importance of jobs, prosperity and giving certainty to companies—usually ones with Japanese and Scandinavian names, I notice. In response to the noble Lord, Lord Deben, I would say that we do not build power stations for the people who work in them and run them, we build them for the people who use the electricity that comes from them.
Last week, we heard that the Government have decided on a strike price for offshore wind of £155 per megawatt hour. A few years ago, the Government said they had the ambition of getting this down to £100 per megawatt hour. That now seems to have been abandoned, as the number has come down, with inflation taken into account, to only £135 in 2015, I think it is. These are extremely high numbers—three times the going rate for energy at the moment. What will happen to the people in the chemical, cement, steel, aluminium and heavy engineering industries? We know the answer to that. There is an industrial renaissance going on in the United States—a huge resurgence of manufacturing industry—because of shale gas and the effect it has had on energy prices.
Lord O'Neill of Clackmannan
The industries the noble Viscount has cited are wholly dependent on baseload generation. However, he is talking about interruptible generation. He is talking about two different sources. The industries will not be dependent on interruptible generation because they will require continuous baseload generation, 24/7, to conduct their industrial activities.
Viscount Ridley
My Lords, in the United States, shale gas has displaced coal. I should, by the way, declare my interest in coal even though, once again, I am speaking against it and in favour of its greatest competitor, gas. There has been a massive displacement of coal by shale gas, which brings me on to the next point. The effect of displacing coal with shale gas in the United States has been to cause the fastest drop in CO2 emissions of any western country. They are down to the levels they were at 30 years ago and down to the per capita levels they were at 50 years ago. These are extraordinary achievements and suggest that we have, in shale gas, a technology for short-term reduction in carbon dioxide emissions—not all the way down to 50 grams or anything like that but a good chunk of the way—that could be achieved and combined with affordability. The counterfactual to building a huge amount of offshore wind capacity and other industries is to allow the development of gas in this country. We know that the numbers would be much lower in terms of the cost to the consumer—it would be much more feasible and much more affordable. To throw away the flexibility of going for that possibility would be a potential mistake.