Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what estimate she has made of the cost to the public purse of migrants to the UK gaining access to (a) welfare payments and (b) other services as a result of obtaining indefinite leave to remain for each financial year from 2024-25 onward.
Answered by Darren Jones - Chief Secretary to the Treasury
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) produces forecasts of the UK’s economic and fiscal position.
Box 4.5 of the OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook published in March 2024 sets out estimated impacts of migration on the fiscal forecast. As the minimum residency required to move to indefinite leave to remain is currently at least 5 years, this falls outside the forecast period. As the OBR says in the March 2024 EFO: ”However, our forecasts will capture the cost of any immigrants from previous cohorts who now claim welfare through Indefinite leave to remain grants because their claims will be included in the outturn data that provides the starting point for our forecast”.
Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, pursuant to the Answer of 7 April 2025 to Question 43439 on Public Expenditure, the Answer of 26 March 2025 to Question 40157 on Public Expenditure and with reference to the Chief Secretary to the Treasury's statement to the House on 28 October 2024, Official Report, column 562, whether the Chief Secretary will correct the record.
Answered by Darren Jones - Chief Secretary to the Treasury
The current budget was last in a sustained surplus between 1998-99 and 2001-02. The last financial year for which the current budget was in surplus was 2018-19, when there was a surplus of 0.0% of GDP.
This information is available in the public finances databank, published by the Office for Budget Responsibility: www.obr.uk/data/
Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, with reference to paragraph 3.2 of the Office for Budget Responsibility's Economic and Fiscal Outlook, published on 26 March 2025, how the policies scored at the Spring Statement differ from the policies announced by the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions on 18 March 2025; and for what reason these policies were changed.
Answered by Darren Jones - Chief Secretary to the Treasury
In response to feedback from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the government made amendments to the policy parameters of two measures. Firstly, the Universal Credit standard allowance will reach £106 per week in 2029-30, an increase above inflation. This differs to the level of £107 per week in 2029-30, which was the latest policy assumption at the time of the statement to the House delivered by the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions on 18 March 2025. Secondly, the government will freeze the reduced Universal Credit health element level for new claimants, in line with our objectives to rebalance the system, rather than uprating it by Consumer Price Index inflation, which was the policy assumption at the time of the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions’s statement to the House on 18 March 2025.
These updates were made after statement, once the Office for Budget Responsibility had given its final assessment of the costings and behavioural assumptions associated with the measures. The adjustments we have made ensure we continue to strike the right balance between setting strong work incentives and fiscal sustainability. This package remains consistent with the government’s Green Paper and the statement to the House made by the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions on 18 March 2025.
Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what the net impact of (a) Government policies since 4 July 2024, (b) the Autumn Budget 2024 and (c) the Spring Statement 2025 has been on the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecasts for real household disposable income per person in each financial year between 2024-25 and 2029-30.
Answered by Darren Jones - Chief Secretary to the Treasury
HM Treasury does not prepare forecasts for the UK economy. Forecasts, including for real household disposable income per person, are the responsibility of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). These forecasts are published by the OBR as part of their Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO).
The OBR’s assessment of policy decisions at the 2024 Autumn Budget can be found in their October 2024 EFO, available here: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2024/
The OBR’s assessment of policy decisions at the 2025 Spring Statement can be found in their March 2025 EFO, available here: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
In their March forecast, after accounting for the effects of policy at both events, the OBR forecast was for RHDI per capita to rise by an annual average of 0.5% over this parliament (Q3 2024 – Q2 2029).
Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what proportion of the additional defence expenditure she announced at the Spring Statement falls under capital departmental expenditure limits; what proportion falls under resource departmental expenditure limits; and for what reason these allocations were arrived at.
Answered by Darren Jones - Chief Secretary to the Treasury
The Chancellor’s Spring Statement document, published on 26 March, set out the Resource DEL and Capital DEL uplifts to defence spending over the scorecard period.
A greater proportion of the uplift will be Capital DEL funding. This reflects the needs of defence, and will enable the accelerated the adoption of cutting-edge capabilities, and rebuild stockpiles, munitions, and other essentials depleted after a period focussed on international terrorism and global crises. This Capital DEL focus also supports the Chancellor’s mission to boost growth, enabling greater spending on novel and innovative technologies.
The allocation of this uplift and the MOD budget will be confirmed as part of the Spending Review 2025, which will conclude on 11 June 2025.
Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, pursuant to the Answer of 26 March 2025 to Question 40157 on Public Expenditure, and with reference to the Chief Secretary to the Treasury's statement to the House on 28 October 2024, Official Report, column 562, whether it is her Department's policy to target an overall budget surplus.
Answered by Darren Jones - Chief Secretary to the Treasury
At Autumn Budget 2024, the government confirmed new fiscal rules to put the public finances on a sustainable path, and prioritise investment to support long-term growth.
The stability rule is that the current budget must be in surplus in 2029-30, until 29-30 becomes the third year of the forecast period. From that point, the current budget must then remain in balance or in surplus from the third year of the rolling forecast period, where balance is defined as a range: in surplus, or in deficit of no more than 0.5% of GDP. This range will support the government’s commitment to a single fiscal event every year by avoiding the need for policy adjustment at forecasts outside of fiscal events. If the range is used between fiscal events, the current budget must return to surplus from the third year at the following fiscal event.
In its March 2025 forecast, the independent Office for Budget Responsibility confirmed the government was on track to meet its stability and investment rules two years early. By 2029-30, the current budget is forecast to be in a surplus of £9.9 billion.
Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, with reference to paragraph 3.2 of the Office for Budget Responsibility's Economic and Fiscal Outlook, published on 26 March 2025, what changes were made to the reduction in the level of the Universal Credit health element following the certification deadline; and for what reason.
Answered by Darren Jones - Chief Secretary to the Treasury
In response to feedback from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the government made amendments to the policy parameters of the changes to the Universal Credit health element. The government is freezing the reduced Universal Credit health element level for new claimants, in line with our objectives to rebalance the system, rather than uprating it by Consumer Price Index inflation.
This update was made after the statement to the House delivered by the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions on 18 March 2025, once the Office for Budget Responsibility had given its final assessment of the costing and behavioural assumptions associated with the measure. The adjustments were made to ensure we continue to strike the right balance between setting strong work incentives and fiscal sustainability.
Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, with reference to paragraph 3.2 of the Office for Budget Responsibility's Economic and Fiscal Outlook, published on 26 March 2025, what changes were made to the universal credit standard allowance increase following the certification deadline; and for what reason.
Answered by Darren Jones - Chief Secretary to the Treasury
In response to feedback from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the government made amendments to the policy parameters of the Universal Credit standard allowance change. The UC standard allowance will reach £106 per week in 2029-30, an increase above inflation.
This update was made after the statement delivered to the House by the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions on 18 March 2025, once the Office for Budget Responsibility had given its final assessment of the costing and behavioural assumptions associated with the measure. The adjustments were made to ensure we continue to strike the right balance between setting strong work incentives and fiscal sustainability.
Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, in which financial year the current budget was last in surplus.
Answered by Emma Reynolds - Economic Secretary (HM Treasury)
The last financial year for which the current budget was in surplus was 2018-19, when there was a surplus of £0.8 billion. This was the only surplus since 2001-02, when the current budget was in surplus by £6.9 billion.
The OBR has today forecast that the current budget will be in surplus by £6.0 billion in 2027-28, £7.1 billion in 2028-29, and £9.9 billion in 2029-30.
This information is available in the Public Sector Finances publication, published by the Office for National Statistics and the Office for Budget Responsibility’s March Economic and Fiscal Outlook published on 26 March.
Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, whether the Overseas Development Assistance budget will remain the only funding source for the increase in defence spending throughout this Parliament.
Answered by Darren Jones - Chief Secretary to the Treasury
On 25 February 2025 the Prime Minister announced that NATO qualifying defence spending will increase to 2.5% GDP by 2027-28, with Official Development Assistance reducing from 0.5% GNI to 0.3% GNI by the same time point, meaning the uplift is fully funded and that additional funding will be sourced by a reduction in ODA. The final budgets for departments will be announced when the Spending Review concludes on 11 June 2025