European Union (Withdrawal) Act

Nadine Dorries Excerpts

Thursday 6th December 2018 Commons Chamber

[Mr Hammond]

I will give way one more time and then make a little progress.

[Ms Nadine Dorries (Mid Bedfordshire) (Con)]

The Chancellor mentioned no deal, so I wonder whether he can explain what no deal means. My understanding is that the rest of the world trades under World Trade Organisation rules with independent free trade agreements, so there is actually no such thing as no deal, is there? If we do leave—I do not buy the term “crash out”—we will trade on WTO rules, so that does not mean “no deal”, does it?

[Mr Hammond]

Yes, it is no deal. As I will say later in my speech, if we did leave the European Union without a deal, we would actually be the only advanced economy in the world trading with the European Union on pure WTO terms, with no facilitation agreements whatsoever. In my view, that would be a very bad outcome for the United Kingdom.

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[Ms Nadine Dorries (Mid Bedfordshire) (Con)]

Would the shadow Chancellor abandon his commitment to remain in the customs union if the backstop were not there and there was an absolute legal requirement for the 27 member states to reach a free trade agreement within the initial transition period?

[John McDonnell]

We believe that a permanent customs union is an essential part of the architecture for the future relationship that will secure our prosperity, and it would benefit the overall economy.

Far from influencing Members to back the Prime Minister’s deal, I believe that the threat of no deal, used in this way, is actually strengthening the momentum to secure an alternative approach.

I move on to the Prime Minister’s deal. It is clear that it is bad for Britain. It does not protect jobs or living standards and would leave this country worse off; it does not even respect the Prime Minister’s own red lines. It risks indefinitely tying the UK to agreements over which we will have no say whatever. It does not include a permanent customs union; it does not protect employment or environmental rights; and it does not deliver a strong relationship with the single market to protect businesses or, crucially, to allow them to plan with any certainty.

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[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

May I say that I probably would not agree with the conclusion reached by the right hon. Member for Mid Sussex (Sir Nicholas Soames), but it was a pleasure to hear that speech?

I know that the Chancellor has had to go to a Cabinet committee meeting—I suspect there may be a number of those between now and next Tuesday—so I understand why he is not in his place. However, I would like to say that I agree with him in one particular regard—that to have no deal and to revert to WTO rules would be the worst possible outcome we could reach.

I would also say that I thought the Chancellor was incredibly sincere when he said that not to agree with the Prime Minister’s arrangements in this withdrawal deal would fracture society. I have absolutely no doubt of the sincerity with which he said that, but as a democrat, I say no less sincerely that, when the circumstances change and the actual consequences of what we may embark on become clear, we have a right to change our minds, whatever that means to any individual.

I wish to restrict my remarks mainly to issues of trade, investment and migration, as a reduction in trade and investment and a reduction in migration due to an ending of the free movement of people will be the main drivers of a reduction in GDP growth, productivity and living standards for citizens. Unless one views this as some kind of nationalistic project, surely to goodness our primary concern should be the economy, the changes to it, the impact on it and the impact on citizens.

On the decision to end free movement, as the Prime Minister says, “once and for all”, all of the Brexit scenarios modelled by the Treasury show GDP in 15 years’ time to be lower, and lower still when the impact of ending free movement is modelled. So it is time to stop pretending that ending free movement is a good thing. It is not: it is self-evidently economically damaging.

Intent on mitigating some of that, I read the withdrawal agreement in detail. The section in the political declaration on mobility states:

“The mobility arrangements will be based on non-discrimination”—

that is good, but

“free movement…will no longer apply”.

The parties will wish to negotiate short-term visits and visits for study, training and youth exchanges. They will consider social security issues. They will explore the possibility of facilitating the crossing of respective borders for legitimate travel; that means it will not exist on day one. They will allow travel under international family law, or for judicial co-operation in matrimonial matters, in matters of parental responsibility and the like. Paragraph 59 of the document states:

“These arrangements would be in addition to commitments on temporary entry and stay…referred to in Section III”.

Those are limited areas. I will come back to that in relation to agriculture, but I do not want anyone to think that this agreement will in effect allow travel as it currently exists; it simply will not.

All the serious pre-referendum assessments of the likely impact—every one—were negative. They were almost all in the minus 2% to minus 9% GDP range over the forecast periods they looked at. Even the OECD central estimate was a 5% loss of GDP over the forecast period. The subsequent analysis, the “Cross Whitehall Briefing”, suggested that GDP would be 1.5% lower in 15 years under an EEA-type scenario, 4.8% lower under a free trade agreement scenario and 7.7% lower under a mitigated WTO-type scenario. It is worth noting that even that final scenario was based on a smooth, orderly no-deal exit, not a disruptive, cliff-edge Brexit. It is, therefore, no surprise that the Bank of England Brexit analysis shows GDP growth lower, unemployment higher and inflation steeply upward the more disorderly the Brexit. Pre-referendum, the figures for Scotland on a WTO rules outcome suggested GDP down 5%, real wages down 7% and employment down by 80,000 jobs, or about 3%.

Since the withdrawal agreement has been published, there have been further assessments, which have been referenced today. The NIESR has suggested GDP growth will be reduced by £100 billion a year. The LSE has suggested that GDP will be lower—again, in the minus 2% to minus 9% range. The Scottish Government have demonstrated that, under an FTA agreement, Scottish GDP will be down by about £9 billion, which is the equivalent of £1,600 per person.

[Ms Dorries]

Does the hon. Gentleman have anything positive or hopeful that he could announce in his speech because this just sounds like “Continuity Project Fear”?

[Stewart Hosie]

This is actually the problem with this debate. There has been a series of almost universally identical assessments from dozens of different organisations, yet some people—I want to be careful about the tenor of this—have ignored all expert opinion. There has been the gut instinct reaction, “That’s what we’re going to deliver and”—by sheer force of will—“things will be better.”

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[Mr Davis]

The hon. Lady clearly has not read my resignation letter, in which I made clear what I had said to the Prime Minister about that backstop arrangement.

[Ms Dorries]

Aviation and the WTO were mentioned earlier by my hon. Friend the Member for Mid Worcestershire (Nigel Huddleston). The EU itself is looking for a deal on aviation, as we would be, so there is actually no difference. The EU still does not have a deal on aviation.

[Mr Davis]

That is hardly surprising, given that we have the biggest aviation hub in Europe and one of the biggest in the world.

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[Ms Nadine Dorries (Mid Bedfordshire) (Con)]

It is a pleasure to follow the hon. Member for Wallasey (Ms Eagle). I always find it slightly amusing when Labour Members describe the Conservatives as deeply divided—

[Albert Owen]

It’s true.

[Ms Dorries]

The reverse is true. It is also a pleasure to speak after the right hon. Member for Mid Sussex (Sir Nicholas Soames), and I particularly enjoyed his reference to Lewis Carroll. While listening to the hon. Member for Dundee East (Stewart Hosie), who is not in his seat, I was put in mind of Milton:

“No light, but rather darkness visible.

Serv’d onely to discover sights of woe”.

Of course, that comes from “Paradise Lost”, which is exactly what the hon. Gentleman’s speech sounded like. As we are on a literary theme, I want to quote the Attorney General, who described the deal before us as akin to Dante Alighieri’s first circle of hell which, as we all know, is limbo. In fact, it is worse than limbo, because it is a bit like imprisonment, and it is why I, on the behalf of my constituents, from whom I have received many thousands of representations, will not be able to support this deal. If there was a guarantee that we could secure a trade agreement at the end of the transition period and if there were no automatic backstop, I may have been able to support it. However, I am doubtful that we would able to secure this trade agreement. The Chancellor said that he would prefer to see an extension of the transition period, and then there would probably be another extension, which is what the Attorney General was referring to.

I see no reason why there could not be a time limit on the discussions for a trade agreement with the EU. Canada has already been there and done that with the comprehensive economic and trade agreement, and those negotiations make me doubt that we would reach an agreement in the first phase of the transition. CETA took seven years, and it has still not been signed off and ratified—it is still a provisional agreement. We may not reach a trade agreement with the 27 member states, and we have already seen how difficult it is to negotiate with them. Belgium was incredibly difficult during Canada’s negotiations with the EU, for example. If we do not reach an agreement, we will have to ask the 27, “Can we leave?” There is no unilateral way to exit, which is like taking us into the transition period, but in a pair of handcuffs, and I simply cannot agree to that. That is not what people voted for. They did not vote for limbo or to continue to be dictated to by the 27 member states.

Turning to the backstop, whatever side of the House or the argument they are on, I know of no Member who will answer positively to, “What do you think the chances are of us negotiating a trade agreement with the EU in the transition period?” Almost everyone says, “Absolutely none.” We will therefore end up in the backstop by default. According to the legal advice, which the Attorney General provided at the Dispatch Box without having to publish it, that will put us in an extremely difficult position. Again, there is no unilateral way out, and it will precede the break-up of the Union. It puts us in an invidious position with regard to the Northern Ireland agreement. It will lead to a scenario that we do not need to be in.

I started talking about Canada, and that sort of agreement was offered to us by Barnier. Our negotiators refused to accept it, but it was what was articulated in the Lancaster House speech. If the Prime Minister had come back with an agreement based on that speech and on the Canada plus agreement that she was offered by Barnier, I would vote for that on the behalf of my constituents and they would agree with it, too. Sadly, however, she did not, and I cannot support this withdrawal agreement.